Download Topic 10 Climate Change

Climate Change
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TRENDS, IMPLICATIONS AND POLICY
RESPONSES
Learning Objectives
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At the end of this topic you should be able to:
 Outline the trends in GHG emissions over time and
identify the major emitters by region and country
 Discuss the drivers of GHG emissions
 Understand, why the problem of climate change is
difficult to remedy for individual nations
 Discuss the most effective global strategies designed
to alleviate the problem of climate change
Climate Change Definition
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 The UNFCC (2014) defines climate change as
‘ a change in climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and which is in
addition to natural climate variability observed over
comparable time periods’
Climate Change
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 Greenhouse gases (Co2, CFCs, nitrous oxide,
methane) absorb the infra-red radiation from the
earths surface and trap the heat, raising the
temperature of the earths surface
 How severe is the problem?
 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report,
2014 – Assessment Report 5
IPCC Report 2014
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‘science now shows with 95% certainly that human activity
is the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid
20th century’
most of the observed increases in global average
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely
due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas
concentrations’ (p.10)
‘predicts an average global rise in temperature of 3.7 C to
4.8C by 2100 without mitigation efforts
Summary IPCC (2014)
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Potential climate7 changes impact
Trends in CO2 Emissions 1850-2010
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Co2 Emissions
GHG emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts. Most emission
growth is CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes.
Trends in GHG emissions
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 From 1960-2013 global emissions increased by 61%.
 Global GHG emissions increased to 36bn tons of CO2 in 2013
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and are predicted to grow by a further 2.5% annually
This is about 65% more fossil-fuel emission that 1990, when
international climate negotiations began with the aim of
reducing emissions
Growth of global emissions since 2009 has been slower than in
the period 2000-08
Global emissions are expected to grow to almost 45bn tons by
2019
According to the IPCC, if this trend continues, this could lead to
global average temperature increases of between 3.2C and 5.4C
by 2100
Trends in Co2 emissions:
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 Two thirds of Emissions come from less developed
countries that account for 80% of the global
population
 Top 6 emitters are China (20%), the US (16%), EU27 (11%), India (6%), Russia (5%) and Japan (4%)
 Many countries in the OECD in 2013 achieved
emission reductions including EU-28 (-1.8%) and
Australia (2%)Why?
Top Emitters by Region (tonnes co2)
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Co2 Emissions per capita 1990-2013
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Per Capita Emissions
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 In 2011, per capital Co2 emissions in China increased
by 9% to 7.2 tonnes (similar to EU 7.5 tonnes).
Emissions grew at just 4.2% in 2013
 US was largest CO emitter at 17.3 tonnes per capita.
 Concentration of Co2 emissions has increased from
356 to 392 ppm since 1992
 If current global emissions continues, in just two
decades we will have reached a global increase in
temperature of 2.C
Top Ten Emitters By Country, 2012
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Global Co2 Emissions by Country
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GHG Emission Drivers
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 Growth in Emission levels are driven by
 Economic Growth
 Population Growth
 Energy Intensity of Growth (Energy/GDP)
 Emission Intensity of Energy
 Growth in economic output and population are the
two main drivers for increasing GHG emissions and
outpace emission reductions from improvements in
energy efficiency
GHG emissions rise with growth in GDP and population;
long-standing trend of decarbonisation of energy reversed.
Carbon Intensity of Energy is increasing
Between 2000 and 2010 increased use of coal relative to many other
energy sources has reversed a long standing trend of gradual
decarbonisation of the worlds energy supply
Increased use of coal, especially in developing Asia, is increasing
GHG emissions
Without policy efforts to reduce GHG emissions the fundamental
drivers of emissions growth are expected to persist despite major
improvements in energy supply and technologies
Without policy action the IPCC (2013) estimate that GHG emissions
will be somewhere between 750 and 1300ppm by 2100
Results even if GHG are stabilised?
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 Global warming and sea level rise would continue for
centuries due to the timescales associated with
climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse
gas concentrations were to be stabilised
The temperature will increase long after
emissions are reduced
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Policy Objectives
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 The common goal of UNFCC is to limit the global
temperature increase to 2’C
 To achieve the atmospheric concentration levels can
be no more than 450ppm
 According to the IPCC to achieve this will require
between a 40 and 70% cut in emissions by 2050
Climate Change Mitigation
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 UNFCC (2014) defines climate change mitigation as
‘ a human intervention to reduce the sources or
enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases’
‘Ultimate goal of mitigation is preventing dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system
within a time frame to allow ecosystems to adapt, to
ensure food production is not threatened and to
enable economic development to proceed in a
sustainable manner’ (UNFCC, 2014)
International Agreements
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 International Cooperation is necessary to
significantly mitigate climate change (Global
commons problem)
 According to the IPCC 2014 report international
cooperation has produced “agreement regarding a
long term goal of limiting global temperature
increase to no more than 2C above preindustrial
levels, but the overall level of mitigation achieved to
date by cooperation appears inadequate to achieve
this goal”
The Kyoto protocol: International Agreements on
Climate Change
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 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
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(UNFCCC), 1992
Kyoto Protocol agreed in December, 1997 and set legally
binding emission targets and was opened for signing in
January, 1998
Became effective when enough countries signed the
agreement and represented at least 55 per cent of the
total C02 emissions (2005)
Called for a 5 per cent reduction in average annual
emissions below 1990 levels
187 signatories (US not ratified) covering 64% of global
CO2 emissions
Kyoto Agreement has 2 commitment periods: 2005-12
and 2013-20
Implementation Mechanism
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Three Mechanisms
(1) Emissions Trading
(2) Joint Implementation
(3) Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM)
Emissions trading is the primary tool used to fulfil
emission targets
Emissions Trading
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 Biggest benefit of emissions trading is that it offers
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participating countries a way to meet their targets
cost effectively and in a flexible way
Emissions trading encourages the mobilisation of
private capital
Encourages technical innovation
And should reduce the long run cost of controlling
climate change
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012
/nov/26/kyoto-protocol-carbon-emissions
http://felixonline.co.uk/politics/2943/has-kyotoreally-been-successful/
Evaluating Climate Change Policies
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Four Criteria
 Environmental Effectiveness
 Aggregate Economic Performance
 Distributional Impacts
 Institutional Feasibility
Was Kyoto Agreement effective?
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 Environmental Effectiveness?
 The aggregate emission countries (38 Annex 1) have reduced
emissions by 9.2% below the Kyoto Protocols below the 5.2%
target but this was due to global economic recession and
countries in transition
 Environmental effectiveness reduced due to Participation
issues (US not participating)
Was Kyoto Protocol Effective?
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Economic Performance
 Were the three market based instruments cost effective and did they
maximise social benefit
 In theory the emissions trading should have reduced abatement costs
by 50% in practice there were too few trades
 Joint implementation- should have improved cost effectiveness but
tended to be limited to a few countries
 Clean Development mechanism effectiveness is limited because of
additionally of projects, emission leakage and price decreases
Was Kyoto Protocol Effective?
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 Distributional Impacts were limited due to a
concentration of projects in a limited number of
countries
 Also non-annex 1 countries saw cumulative increases
in GHGs that were very significant
Was Kyoto Protocol Effective?
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Institutional Feasibility
Ratified by 191 countries (plus the EU). Participation
dropped in the second commitment period (20132020)
Issues with enforcement and weakness of sanctions
Successor to Kyoto –Copenhagen 2009
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 UN Climate change Conference, Copenhagen, 2009
 Expectation that treaty to succeed Kyoto Protocol
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would be adopted
Copenhagen accord recognized the scientific case for
keeping temperatures below 2C
But DOES NOT contain commitments to reduce
emissions to achieve this objective
Pledges funds to help developing countries adapt to
climate change
The accord was not formally adopted but just
´noted´ by countries
Durban Platform, 2011
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 UNFCCC Durban 2011.
 Durban platform agreed decision to adopt by 2015 ´a
protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed
outcome with legal force under the convention
applicable to all parties´ and to come into effect and
´be implemented beginning in 2020’
 Also agreed to a temperature taget by international
communities and pledges for emission reductions.
 Problem: Still significant gap even if all pledges are
filled which make it less likely to reach 2C target
The 2015 International Agreement
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 Negotiations launched in 2011 at the Durban Climate Conference for a
new international climate change agreement that covers all countries
will be adopted in 2015 and implemented from 2020
 Agreement set to take the form of a legally binding instrument and
binding commitments on emission reductions
 The EU, a few other European countries and Australia have joined a
legally binding second period of the Kyoto Protocl which runs until
2020
 http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/future/i
ndex_en.htm
Summary
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 Very difficult to control pollution when it is a global
problem
 There is still significant scientific uncertainty
regarding the pace of climate change
 Cost effective policies to reduce global emissions will
be adopted more quickly by countries
 Effective policies require participation by a strong
majority of countries if the problem of climate
change is to be controlled
Reading
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 OECD (2012) Environmental Outlook to 2050, Chapter 3
 IPCC 2014 Report chapter 13
 IPCC 2014 Report technical summary
 Field & Field (2013): Environmental Economics: An
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Introduction, ch. 20 pp428-434
Olivier et al (2013)Trends in Global Co2 Emissions:2012 Report
.European Commission
Green et al (2007), Climate Change: Caps V Taxes,
Environmental Policy Outlook No.2
Kettner et al (2008) Stringency and Distribution in the EU
Emissions Trading Scheme: First Evidence. Climate Policy, 8,
pp 41-61
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/20/science/earth/extremely
-likely-that-human-activity-is-driving-climate-change-panelfinds.html?pagewanted=all
Embedded links (short articles)