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Wednesday 16 Dec 2009 – AGU meeting 8:00 AM-10:00 AM, 3020 (Moscone West) ED31C. Education and Communication for Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness I ID# ED31C-01 Location: 3020 (Moscone West) Time of Presentation: Dec 16 8:00 AM - 8:15 AM A National Road Map to a Climate Literate Society: Advancing Climate Literacy by Coordinating Federal Climate Change Educational Programs (Invited) F. Niepold1; J. L. Karsten2 1. Climate Program Office, NOAA/UCAR , Silver Spring, MD, United States. 2. Geosciences Directorate , National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, United States. Over the 21st century, climate scientists expect Earth's temperature to continue increasing, very likely more than it did during the 20th century. Two anticipated results are rising global sea level and increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves, droughts, and floods. [IPCC 2007, USGCRP 2009] These changes will affect almost every aspect of human society, including economic prosperity, human and environmental health, and national security. Climate change will bring economic and environmental challenges as well as opportunities, and citizens who have an understanding of climate science will be better prepared to respond to both. Society needs citizens who understand the climate system and know how to apply that knowledge in their careers and in their engagement as active members of their communities. Climate change will continue to be a significant element of public discourse. Understanding the essential principles of climate science will enable all people to assess news stories and contribute to their everyday conversations as informed citizens. Key to our nations response to climate change will be a Climate Literate society that understands their influence on climate and climate’s influence on them and society. In order to ensure the nation increases its literacy, the Climate Literacy: Essential Principles of Climate Science document has been endorsed by the 13 Federal agencies that make up the US Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov/resources/educators/climate-literacy) and twenty-four other science and educational institutions. This session will explore the coordinated efforts by the federal agencies and partner organizations to ensure a climate literate society. http://globalchange.gov/resources/educators/climate-literacy Contact Information Frank Niepold, Brookeville, Maryland, USA, 20833-0000, click here to send an email "Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences: A Guide for Individuals and Communities" produced by the U.S. Global Change Research Program in March 2009 Frank Niepold (NOAA) + Joe Karsten. I thought we’d be further alongon this roadmap so there’d be more for you to do. Un Framework + Copenhagen require us to do much more. People tlk about the new, green innovative economy. Energy seems to be an afterthought, but it’s very important. Jobs is another major requirement. 7th graders are wondering about future jobs. Climate is just a piece. We need a climate-literate nation. (President says education is his highest priority) We need a diverse, innovative, and well-trained climate science and technology workforce. We need to get on the same page and agree on the goals… and the plan… and the requirements soon. (NSF hets 6- million/yr) Here are two opportunities to assist this process: NRC Americas Climate Choices recommendations National Academies of Sciences Climate Change Education Strategies Roundtable Look into these! Congress asked that NOAA fund the former and GIVE RECOMMENDATIONS – unprecedented request for advice Our nation faces serious challenges (lets all the air out of the room – heavy dark and serious) as we transition to a more “green society”, which will require creative education initiatives (make it hopeful) Fed agency plays a role in education. It should be cohesive, comprehensive (not museums – those who go are not the people who need to be educated – need to engaged the disengaged and cautious) – and synergistic Climate change brings opportunites (Obama talked to UN – quote from Sept 2009) “The security and sustainability of each nation and all peoples – our prosperity , our health … Obstacles to achieving climate literacy complex and multi-disciplinary …. DRAFT near term goals A catalytic change in the formal and informal edu systems that promote ESS, … Increase the number of educators in K-16 In crease number , diversity, quality fo stuents pursuing climate-related edu and career paths Articulate a shared strategic vision for national climate edu that respects individual agency priorities and responsibilityesm, identifies opportunities for interagency collav, and establishes mech and infrastructure needs… ID# ED31C-02 Location: 3020 (Moscone West) Time of Presentation: Dec 16 8:15 AM - 8:30 AM Global Warming’s Six Americas: An Audience Segmentation Analysis (Invited) C. Roser-Renouf1; E. Maibach1; A. Leiserowitz2 1. Center for Climate Change Communication, Dept. of Communication, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States. 2. Yale Project on Climate Change, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States. One of the first rules of effective communication is to “know thy audience.” People have different psychological, cultural and political reasons for acting – or not acting – to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and climate change educators can increase their impact by taking these differences into account. In this presentation we will describe six unique audience segments within the American public that each responds to the issue in its own distinct way, and we will discuss methods of engaging each. The six audiences were identified using a nationally representative survey of American adults conducted in the fall of 2008 (N=2,164). In two waves of online data collection, the public’s climate change beliefs, attitudes, risk perceptions, values, policy preferences, conservation, and energy-efficiency behaviors were assessed. The data were subjected to latent class analysis, yielding six groups distinguishable on all the above dimensions. The Alarmed (18%) are fully convinced of the reality and seriousness of climate change and are already taking individual, consumer, and political action to address it. The Concerned (33%) – the largest of the Six Americas – are also convinced that global warming is happening and a serious problem, but have not yet engaged with the issue personally. Three other Americas – the Cautious (19%), the Disengaged (12%) and the Doubtful (11%) – represent different stages of understanding and acceptance of the problem, and none are actively involved. The final America – the Dismissive (7%) – are very sure it is not happening and are actively involved as opponents of a national effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Mitigating climate change will require a diversity of messages, messengers and methods that take into account these differences within the American public. The findings from this research can serve as guideposts for educators on the optimal choices for reaching and influencing target groups with varied informational needs, values and beliefs. Contact Information Connie Roser-Renouf, Fairfax, Virginia, USA, 22030, click here to send an email Online survey that will help us communicate better with different segments of America Beliefes, level of involvement, policy preferences, behaviors – understand that people iffer, and start from their perspectice Alarmed – concerned – cautious – disengaged – doubtful – dismissive Use the term global warming because it’s more recognized. Climate change – half of people haven’t heard of it 1. Belief in the reality of climate change – it’s real 2. certainty – I’m certain it’s real 3. human implication – people caused it 4-5 Many alarmed, more concerned, fair amount of cautious to dismissive When do you think GW will start to harm people in the US? Alarmed: now Concerned: in 10-15 years Disengaged or cautious: 35-40 years Dismissive: never How much do you think global warming will harm future generations of people? Dismissive say NOT AT ALL How much do you think GW will harm you personally? LESS for everyone, even the alarmed and concerned. Assuming GW is happening, do you think it is caused mostly by humans caused mostly by natural changes, both none of the above, because it’s not happening Can humans fix it? we can and will – almost nobody thinks so we can mitigate it but note sure whether we wil – more think so Most people coming into science museums are already in top two categories. They don’t need outreach. How can we reach out to lower groups? How much had you thought about GW before today? Dismissive had thought about it more than disengaged! Cautious and doubtful analyzing who info comes from? Cautious and disengaged are those most likely to change their mind Most believe scientists agree – except Dismissive and Doubtful Who do you trust as sources of GW? Scientists the most How high a priority should GW be for president and congress? Cautious and disengaged more supportive than expected Little support across the board for cap and trade More support across the board for alternatives/renewables Behaviors – little difference between groups! – largely due to constaints within the system Climatechange.gmu.edu Research.yale.edu/environment/climate ID# ED31C-03 Location: 3020 (Moscone West) Time of Presentation: Dec 16 8:30 AM - 8:45 AM Creationism & Climate Change (Invited) S. Newton1 1. National Center for Science Education, Oakland, CA, United States. Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious problem for science educators, who are further hindered by the poor treatment of the earth sciences and climate change in state science standards. Recent changes to Texas’ science standards, for example, require that students learn “different views on the existence of global warming.” Because of Texas’ large influence on the national textbook market, textbooks presenting nonscientific “different views” about climate change—or simply omitting the subject entirely because of the alleged “controversy”—could become part of K-12 classrooms across the country. www.ncseweb.org Contact Information Steven Newton, Oakland, California, USA, 94609, click here to send an email Climategate Common themes State standards: Louisiana, Texase Climategate: Hacked emails from U. East Anglian- alleged data manipulation a trick to hide decoine Discovery Institute for Intelligent Design (Seattle) – 11 articles in 5 days He’s lecturing like a true believer himself – break time for me ID# ED31C-04 Location: 3020 (Moscone West) Time of Presentation: Dec 16 8:45 AM - 9:00 AM A Second Chance: What can informal science learning institutions uniquely contribute to public inquiry about climate change? (Invited) D. Bartels1 , Exploratorium, San Francisco, CA, United States. The science of climate change is complicated. Even for adult audiences, scientific ideas such as non-linear modeling, probability and uncertainty, complexity and multivariate relationships, and the dynamic relationship between physical and human systems were not part of the typical curriculum for most of us in school. Moreover, many adults are invested in the myth that the aim of scientists is “truth-seeking” as opposed to finding the best interpretation that fits the best available empirical data. Science too often is presented even to adults as sets of answers and certainties. The forthcoming “Green Book” from the NSF Advisory Committee on Environmental Research and Education makes a novel recommendation that in these times adult environmental science literacy is as critical as education programs for K-12 and university students. Its reasoning is the stakes regarding the most pressing global environmental issues of our day—climate change chief among them—likely require such significant change in human behavior in the immediate term that it cannot wait for another generation of children to grow up. Practices and behaviors must change immediately. The report identifies the approximately 15,000 informal science learning institutions across the United States as the perfect adult science education delivery system to address this challenge. However, for the informal science learning community to engage this challenge most effectively, it must take care in its response given the complexity of the science, even for adults. It cannot perpetuate the idea of science as static and certain or separate itself from the social sciences. Yet the scientific community has very important stories to tell which have an immediate urgency to humankind. How do you explain the importance of uncertainty and science as a process while at the same time conveying confidence about scientific consensus where it exists? We will discuss ways of framing these important questions about adult learning and the science of climate change to assist scientists, informal science learning institutions and others increase the probability of enhanced credibility, understanding and action on the part of those of us beyond our school years. exploratorium.edu Contact Information Dennis Bartels, San Francisco, California, USA, 94123, click here to send an email Calculus is great, but we don’t teach enough statistics, so even adults and college students don’t understand uncertanties. People need understanding of SYSTEMS - what if A depends on B, C, and D, not just one variable. This is an ADULT education system. There are 15,000 informal adult educational sites – aquariua, zoos, exploratoriums Too many adults think science is truth-seeking. Scientists understand this is a PROCESS of model-making, not a set of truths. NYT arts editor complained – why is every science center becoming a science center of climate change? They see their role as to proselytize. How to convey the scientific method and the importance of civic action for policy? Each week, SF Exploratorium train polar scientists for a week on how to communicate with the public, then send them to the poles. They broadcast back, including messiness of process. Heat and temperature – basic building blocks NOAA – 5 year partnership – wonderful digital data sharing on sailing ship TALK WITH HIM ABOUT STAR - SDO DATA Evans website – where do your beliefs come from – lots of emails about climategate Statistics, probability, risk, consequences - evenings for adults – risky behavior, dangerous situations. How do you get people to really understand – run social experiments after a couple of beers- when might you change social behavior due to possible consequences? Don’t tell people what to think, but help them learn to think for themselves. Met Dennis Bartels with Mary Miller after his talk – meet tomorrow at 9 am at Intercontinental hotel with Clay (and Neal? And Tom?) They are very interested in putting Clay and Riley’s STAR oftware online at Exploratorium, especially after they build their new observatory on the wharf – in 4-5 years! Too long to wait. Tom said NASA is co-opting not only our SDO data analysis front-end for the public, but also the Space Weather Prediction Center, even though N must use Tom’s data. NASA is bloated with people looking for something meaningful to do. ID# ED31C-05 Location: 3020 (Moscone West) Time of Presentation: Dec 16 9:00 AM - 9:15 AM AMS Climate Studies: Improving climate literacy through undergraduate education J. A. Brey1; I. W. Geer1; J. M. Moran1; R. S. Weinbeck1; E. W. Mills1; B. A. Blair1; E. J. Hopkins2; T. P. Kiley Jr.1; E. E. Ruwe1 1. Education Program, American Meteorological Society, Washington, DC, United States. 2. Environmental Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States. In working to promote scientific literacy among the public, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) has produced a suite of introductory college-level courses that engage students by investigating relevant topics in Earth science, and utilizing the most current, real-world environmental data. The newest of these courses, AMS Climate Studies, is a turnkey package which will be licensed by individual colleges for local offering in online, blended, or traditional lecture/lab settings. The course will place students in a dynamic learning environment where they will investigate Earth’s climate system using real-world data. This will allow the course to keep a strong focus on the science, while still addressing many of the societal impacts that draw the attention of today’s students. In this way, the course will serve as a great primer in preparing students to become responsible, scientifically-literate participants in discussions of climate science and climate change. Developed with major support from NASA, AMS Climate Studies will encourage students to investigate the atmosphere and world ocean as components of a larger Earth system. More than 500 colleges and universities throughout the United States have already offered AMS Weather Studies and AMS Ocean Studies, after which AMS Climate Studies will be modeled. The learning system will consist of a fully-integrated set of printed and online learning materials focused around a brand new, hardcover 15-chapter textbook, Climate Studies: Introduction to Climate Science and an Investigations Manual with 30 lab-style activities that will emphasize the use of authentic science data. The package will also include a course website providing weekly Current Climate Studies activities along with access to environmental data streams, including an impressive suite of NASA and NOAA images and products. The development and testing of AMS Climate Studies is currently nearing completion. A number of college and university professors have been selected to pilot the program in Spring 2010, with major emphasis placed on representing a diverse array of institution types, degree programs, course delivery methods, academic backgrounds, etc. The materials will be vigorously tested and updated accordingly. AMS Climate Studies will be available for implementation at your institution beginning Fall 2010. http://www.ametsoc.org/climatestudies Contact Information James A. Brey, Washington, District of Columbia, USA, 20005, click here to send an email Textbook by James Moran Partly online – 30 hands-on labs, games, - their team writes a new exercise every Thursday based on newest data – weekly climate news (NASA feeds), links, resources, semester archives, … Faculty resources: CD,, textbook images, , testbank, etc… They will mentor faculty through first semester if they wish Diversity workshops… into minority-serving schools AMS Weather Studies also (and AMS Ocean Studies) ID# ED31C-06 Location: 3020 (Moscone West) Time of Presentation: Dec 16 9:15 AM - 9:30 AM Translating Scientific Conclusions about Risk for Public Audiences Tom. E. Bowman1 1. Bowman Global Change, Signal Hill, CA, United States. Climate change has been aptly described as a problem of risk management, yet the scientific community has not been successful in helping the public engage in risk management effectively. Behavioral science studies demonstrate that, while the public generally accepts the reality of anthropogenic climate change today, the immanence of impacts and scale of risk and opportunities for effective mitigation are poorly understood. Helping the public overcome these misperceptions and engage in decision-making about climate risks is, perhaps, the climate communication community’s most urgent priority. Scientific writing and graphic conventions are poorly suited for communicating with nonscientists. Using examples from the IPCC 4th Assessment, this session will demonstrate how specific conventions in science writing and graph making have obscured critical information about climate risks. The session will further demonstrate how reformatting the graphical information can create an exceptionally clear picture of where humanity stands and the implications of various emissions pathways for the future. Attendees will appreciate how presentations of science results can be tailored to answer the public’s questions more effectively by highlighting useful information in accurate, yet accessible ways. Decision-makers and the public urgently need information about climate impact risks and the consequences of various emissions pathways. Yet written and graphic descriptions from the IPCC and other assessment agencies burden non-scientists with multiple temperature baselines (e.g., pre-Industrial, mid-20th century, late 20th century, today), two confusingly similar measures for the key human contribution to atmospheric composition (CO2 and CO2-eq), and multiple ways of describing probability and certainty. The public is further confounded by inconsistent graphic conventions in scientific figures, including inconsistent color-coding, labeling, axis orientation, and treatment of uncertainty. Scientific figures tend to either include too many different messages or over-generalize, and neither approach helps non-scientists identify useful metrics and apply them to decision-making. This session will briefly illustrate each of these problematic scientific conventions and present a more effective translation of key IPCC figures in a new graphic format that help non-scientists appreciate our situation and opportunities. This translation has received positive reviews from informal learning institutions and will be useful to the broader science communication community. www.bowmanglobalchange.com Contact Information Thomas E. Bowman, Signal Hill, California, USA, 90755-0000, click here to send an email 1. identify key public misperceptions 2. translate sci graphic figures appropriately 3. audience tests (16 presentations, HS to business audiences) Key misconceptions: * immediacy of impacts? * scale of mitigation required? * whether viable solutions exist? * whether we make effective choices? The climate choice: Limits + Odds = Emissions trajectory Limit: where shall we draw the line on consequences? Odds: how certain do we want to be about staying below the limit? Emissions trajectory: the rate and depth of emissions cuts = Options + Tradeoffs Draw Earth as bulb of Thermometer, show impacts for different T rises Tipping points (emissions trajectories) ID# ED31C-07 Location: 3020 (Moscone West) Time of Presentation: Dec 16 9:30 AM - 9:45 AM Global Climate Change for Kids: Making Difficult Ideas Accessible and Exciting D. K. Fisher1; N. Leon1; M. P. Greene1 1. JPL, Pasadena, CA, United States. NASA has recently launched its Global Climate Change web site (http://climate.nasa.gov), and it has been very well received. It has now also launched in preliminary form an associated site for children and educators, with a plan for completion in the near future. The goals of the NASA Global Climate Change Education site are: To increase awareness and understanding of climate change science in upper-elementary and middle-school students, reinforcing and building upon basic concepts introduced in the formal science education curriculum for these grades; To present, insofar as possible, a holistic picture of climate change science and current evidence of climate change, describing Earth as a system of interconnected processes; To be entertaining and motivating; To be clear and easy to understand; To be easy to navigate; To address multiple learning styles; To describe and promote "green" careers; To increase awareness of NASA's contributions to climate change science; To provide valuable resources for educators; To be compliant with Section 508 of the Americans with Disabilities Act. The site incorporates research findings not only on climate change, but also on effective web design for children. It is envisioned that most of the content of the site will ultimately be presented in multimedia forms. These will include illustrated and narrated "slide shows," animated expositions, interactive concept-rich games and demonstrations, videos, animated fictionalized stories, and printable picture galleries. In recognition of the attention span of the audience, content is presented in short, modular form, with a suggested, but not mandatory order of access. Empathetic animal and human cartoon personalities are used to explain concepts and tell stories. Expository, fiction, game, video, text, and image modules are interlinked for reinforcement of similar ideas. NASA's Global Climate Change Education web site addresses the vital need to impart and emphasize Earth system science concepts at or near the beginning of the education pipeline. http://climate.nasa.gov Contact Information Diane K. Fisher, Pasadena, California, USA, 91109-0000, click here to send an email JPL, CalTech ID# ED31C-08 Location: 3020 (Moscone West) Time of Presentation: Dec 16 9:45 AM - 10:00 AM Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) T. S. Ledley1; M. McCaffrey2 1. Center for Science Teaching and Learning, TERC, Cambridge, MA, United States. 2. CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States. “Climate Science Literacy is an understanding of your influence on climate and climate’s influence on you and society.” In order to ensure the nation increases its literacy, the Climate Literacy: Essential Principles of Climate Science document has been developed. In order to promote the implementation of these Climate Literacy Essential Principles the Climate Literacy Network (CLN, http://www.climateliteracynow.org) was formed in January 2008. Made up of a broad spectrum of stakeholders, this group addresses the complex issues involved in making climate literacy real for all citizens. Efforts within the CLN to improve climate literacy and energy awareness include: 1) the development of the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) Pathway project, recently funded by NSF’s National STEM Education Distributed Learning (NSDL) and Climate Change Education programs; and 2) the development of a regional model (Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network-New England – CLEAN-NE) to coordinate and leverage the wide range of activities focused on climate and energy that are already occurring, with plans that the model will be adapted to other regions around the country. The CLEAN Pathway project will steward a collection of resources that directly address the Climate Literacy: Essential Principles of Climate Science. In addition, it will provide a number of avenues of professional and community development opportunities to facilitate cyberlearning on climate and energy. CLEAN-NE is an initiative to educate high school and college students in the region about climate change and energy and its importance to our planet and society. Through this program, high school students will connect with college mentors, and together they will gain the foundation of climate literacy necessary to change their actions to reflect a more energy-conscious lifestyle. They will then engage their peers and communities in their mission to become climate-literate citizens and lead sustainable lifestyles. In this talk we will describe our efforts through CLN, CLEAN-NE, and the CLEAN Pathway to increase climate literacy and energy awareness in educational contexts as well for individual citizens and communities, providing them with the knowledge and tools to address these issues in a responsible way. http://www.climateliteracynow.org Contact Information Tamara S. Ledley, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, 02140-0000, click here to send an email Group (~90) meets virtually every week – focuses on educational contexts – discuss info on climate science & climate literacy, policy, imact on community groups, citizens [email protected] www.climateliteraccynow.org They produce white papters… Much activity is not funded… NSF Digital Library (NSDL), SERC @ Carleton, CLEP (Climate & Energy Pathway), more sources Virtual / online workshops 10:20 AM-11:25 AM, 309 (Moscone South) NG32A. Lorenz Lecture 10:20-10:25 AM Shaun Lovejoy, McGill University Introduction ID# NG32A-01 Location: 309 (Moscone South) Time of Presentation: Dec 16 10:25 AM - 11:25 AM Complexity of Earth's Magnetosphere: Coherence in a Multiscale Open System (Invited) A. Surja. Sharma1 1. Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States. Earth’s magnetosphere exhibits complex behavior with the characteristic scales spanning many orders of magnitude. The plasma processes underlying the spatio-temporal variability have scales from the electron (10 km) to magnetohydrodynamic (10 Earth radii) scales. These processes are strongly coupled, due mainly to the electrodynamic nature of the interactions in the dipole magnetic field. The multiscale internal dynamics of the magnetosphere, coupled with the turbulent nature of its driver, the solar wind, leads to its ubiquitous nonequilibrium nature. Modeling and prediction of such multiscale systems is a challenge, as dynamical as well as statistical approaches require the presence of dominant scales. In the case of the solar wind magnetosphere system the availability of extensive time series data of both make a dynamical method such as the input-output approach an appropriate choice. In particular, the ground-based magnetic field measurements of the magnetospheric response and the spacecraft measurements of the solar wind variables have been used for modeling and prediction based on nonlinear dynamical systems theory. The dynamical modeling uses the time-delay embedding technique for the reconstruction of phase space and is based on an averaging process similar to the mean-field approach. This yields a coherent dynamical behavior in the reconstructed phase space and predictions can be made using the time series data. This approach has been used successfully to make near real-time forecasts of space weather. The inherent multiscale nature of the system however requires characterizations of the statistical properties using probability distribution functions, specially for understanding extreme events. The long-term correlations inherent in the magnetosphere are studied using auto-correlation and mutualinformation functions, yielding features represented by two exponents. The characterization in terms of two exponents reflects the existence of two kinds of behavior, viz. the directly driven and internal magnetospheric features. Analyses of the return intervals in the time series data for varying thresholds show long-range correlations with decreasing strengths for higher thresholds, similar to some multifractal systems. This feature is studied in more detail using detrended fluctuation analysis and yields features of the magnetosphere similar to those of multiplicative random cascade processes. The dynamical approach based on the coherent behavior, together with the statistical characterizations, provides a comprehensive model of the multiscale magnetosphere. Considering Earth's magnetosphere as a proto-typical large scale open system this approach can be used in the modeling and prediction of such systems in Nature. Contact Information A S. Sharma, College Park, Maryland, USA, 20742-0000, click here to send an email OVERVIEW: Complexity: dynamics & structure Earth’s magnetosphere: an open system Reconstruction of dynamics from time series data Modeling the global dynamics – predictability Multiscale phenomenon – statistical aspects Spatio-temporal modeling Multiscale compelx networks Implications for plasma physics Applications to other areas Conclusion Nonlinear dynamics & complexity Lorentz 1961 modeled circulation in atmosphere with 3 coupled equation – understanding of deterministic dynamics – chaos – no direct contact with data Structure – Mandelbrot 1977 – real objects in nature – trees, clou8ds, costlines, fractals, multifractals Reconstruction of Dynamics: “Geometry from a time series (Packard et al PRL 1980) Embedding theorem (Takens 1981): time series x(t) and time-delay embedding, reconstructed space (Broomhead & King, Phys A 1986) Correlation function C ~ rv, Correlation dimension v (Grassberger & Procaccia, PRL 1983) Applied to Earth’s magnetosphere – episodic nature – dipole Storms and substorms driven by the solar wind (supersonic flow) Slowed to subsonic at bow shock Flux piles up on night side, stretches more -> reconnection (snaps back to ionosphere Flow of current in ionosphere reflects dynamics in magnetosphere (Lyon, Science, 2001): reconnection on Global scale, MHD scale, Hall=-MHD scale, electron scale Auroral electrojet indices (upper and lower) – lower envelope has more variation and stronger connection with stroms? Reconstruction of phase space and correlation dimension – converges to a low value (Vassiliadis et al GRL 1990) Ortho Normal coordinates – Singular Spectrum analysis – Sharma et al GL 1993 – dynamical structure converges in phase space (embedded space) (looks like Lorentz diagram) NB – magnetosphere is strongly driven by turbulent solar wind Global coherence – low dimensionality – complementary works Synthesis of theory, modeling and obs: “The magnetosphere convulses during substorms” Siscoe, Eos 1991 Drpping faucet model of substorms – Baker et al GRL 1990 Faraday loop analog model – Klimas et al JGR 1992 Low-D energy cons nonlin dim – Wendell Horton Strongly driven magnetosphere – substorms during 81 intense storms in 2001 Solar wind data matches magnetospheric responses (Chen, PhD Diss, 2007) Conditional probability dist fxns (pdf) drops with magnetospheric response, regardless of solar wind energy Reconstructon of Dynamics: input = SW induced E field, output = auroral electrojet index AL (doesn’t look like a good reconstruction) Consider substorm = transition from higher level to lower level (AH to AL). They think they get this with MHD analysis. Mean-field model and prediction: nearest neighbors of current state: consider center of mass as mean state in space, and mean state in time, predict output and mean response. Predict trajectory of any point based on trajectories of neighbors. Prediction sort of matches shape of matches actual data sometimes, but not quantity. Mean field and Weighted mean-field models – count nearer neighbors more heavily I’m going back to Edu & Public Awareness talks – this one is not so good and it has half an hour to go. 10:20 AM-12:20 PM, 3020 (Moscone West) ED32A. Education and Communication for Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness II ID# ED32A-07 Location: 3020 (Moscone West) Time of Presentation: Dec 16 11:50 AM - 12:05 PM Using Content-Aligned Assessments to Find Gaps in Understanding of Fundamental Concepts for Weather and Climate J. Wertheim1; G. E. DeBoer1 1. Project 2061, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, DC, United States. Efforts to assess students’ climate literacy so far have focused mainly on evaluating their understanding of advanced ideas about earth’s complex climate system. It is widely accepted that students, their teachers, and most other adults have persistent misconceptions about climate processes (e.g., the hole in the ozone layer is the main cause of global warming) that preclude them having an accurate understanding of more advanced ideas about the climate. Having established that significant gaps in climate literacy exist even at the college level, it is important to identify where the gaps in understanding of concepts fundamental to climate literacy occur. Here we present results from the most comprehensive assessment of middle and high school students’ understanding of the weather and climate topic to date. Students were given 90 multiplechoice assessment items aligned to various fundamental ideas about weather and climate. Students were also asked to justify their answer choices and to explain why each answer choice was either correct or incorrect. The items were administered to 2063 middle school students and 1006 high school students from 76 schools across the country, sampling a wide range of demographic groups. For the entire set of items, the percent correct for middle school students was 39% and for high school students was 47%. With high school students scoring only 8% better than middle school students overall, and middle school students equaling or outperforming high school students on 20% of the items, it is evident that most high school students do not adequately understand the foundational concepts that climate literacy is built upon, knowledge that is needed if they are going to successfully learn more sophisticated concepts in college. The results from this study are used to validate known misconceptions for middle and high school students, identify new misconceptions, and examine previously reported misconceptions that were not supported by this national study. Students’ answers and written comments are also used to identify which of these essential ideas are and are not being learned by middle school and high school students in order to assist teachers in focusing instructional attention in areas where it is most needed. The results are also helpful for alerting college-level faculty of some of the specific weaknesses in the conceptual models of weather and climate ideas that many students bring to college. Contact Information Jill Wertheim, Washington, District of Columbia, USA, 20005, click here to send an email Afternoon Posters 1:40 PM-6:00 PM, Poster Hall (Moscone South) ED33A. Education and Communication for Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness IV Posters 1:40 PM-6:00 PM, Poster Hall (Moscone South) ED33B. Missing Links! Scientists' Communication on Critical Global Environmental Change Issues I Posters 1:40 PM-6:00 PM, Poster Hall (Moscone South) OS33A. Geological Setting of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs and Seeps: A Source for Clean Energy and/or Storage for CO2 I Posters 2:40 PM-3:40 PM, 104 (Moscone South) SH33C. Parker Lecture (This session will be Webcast) ID# SH33C-01 Location: 104 (Moscone South) Time of Presentation: Dec 16 2:45 PM - 3:40 PM A Voyage through the Heliosphere (Invited – parker lecture) L. F. Burlaga1 1. Geospace Physics Laboratory, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States. Parker adopted the word “Heliosphere” to denote “the region of interstellar space swept out by the solar wind” His book “Interplanetary Dynamical Processes” (1963) provided “a comprehensive self-consistent dynamical picture of interplanetary activity” on spatial scales from the Larmor radius to the outermost limits of the heliosphere and over a broad range of temporal scales. The spacecraft Voyagers 1 and 2 have taken us on a journey through much of the heliosphere: from Earth, past the termination shock near 90 AU, and into the inner heliosheath. This talk will use magnetic field observations from V1 and V2 to illustrate how Parker’s dynamical picture has been largely confirmed by observations out to ~100 AU. It will also discuss some “complicating aspects of the dynamics…which will turn up in future observations…” that Parker envisaged. With continued funding, the Voyager spacecraft will allow us to explore the heliosheath, cross the boundary of the heliosphere, and sample the local interstellar medium, guided by still untested predictions of Parker. Contact Information Leonard F. Burlaga, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA, 20771-0000, click here to send an email (Van Allen - SM, Nicolet Lecture - SA) Radial profile of heliospheric field drops off as 1/r2, but bumps up due to solar maxes Parker’s predictions were verified by Voyager in many cases 1963 Parker’s book: Interplaneraty Dynamical Processes – before we had many measurements of solar wind (SW) “illustrate ethe underlying principles and the gross features of the interplanetary plasmas and fields… Parker predicted supersonic (300 km/s)SW carrying B field with it – ASPIRAL field due to solar rotation: “Parker’s spiral field “m 1958 Predicted what we should see as far as the termination shock – took Voyager 40 yeaers to get out there. – excellent agreement between theory and obs 2. Parker considered corotating interaction region (CIR) and fast corating stream – collision between there squeezes and enhances B = CIR, typically observed during decolining phase of solar cycle Period = 26 days, large amplitude and large amplitude variation (at 15 AU) When voyager ws further away (V1: 55 AU) periodicity was less evident – more random, further from sun. LB collaborated wtwh Chi Wang to develop (1D tme-dependent MHD) model – close to obs. 1-5 AU – interactions tend to merge and form larger structures. This merging continues to 25 AU. Beyond 25 AU, pattern is disturbed, periodicity is lost… - phase transition 3. Transient ejecta – Magnetic loop & shock. Let it go supersonic toward earth -> blast front. Magnetic cloud measured to have nested helical field line inside- constant-alpha force-free system – still not quite sure how this developes. Not turbulent field lines. Also can get “complex ejecta” from some – tangled field line 4. interactions among flow: “The many features… iteract within themselves anad with eaech other in ways which are too complicated to deduce from theory…” Interaction: quasi-stationary corotating stream & transient ejecta … shocks and accelerated particles Activity on Sun -> shell of disturbed magnetid magnetic fields propagated outwaqrd from Sun Global merged interaction regions (GMIR) – highly variable, persisting for several solar rotations, over 25 AU away. GMIR may cluster by 15 AU, merge by 25 AU, grow up to 50 -60 AU, then decay further out (Still some peakedness at 90 AU that should disturb the heliosheath – haven’t seen that yet) We don’t know BC. SW is not a gas in a box. It’s a highly nonlineaer, open, driven system. Need a different Stat mech for that. “Nonextensive Stat Mech.” Predicts three kinds of functions. maximize entropy: q-Gaussian -> calculate dist functions for dBn/<B> SW has multifractal structure – Voyager fits quadratic -(a) vs a Correlation fxn for Boltzmann fxn – Boltzmann is exponential, but this one is power law (decreasing) C(d) ~ d-t 6. Interaction with the interstellar medium – conventional paradigm: heliopause = Bow shock -> heliopause Voyager say M field jump of 0.1 nT crossing from SW to termination shock (weaker than predictied. Highly variable B in heliosheath Voyager II crossed heliosheath (or termination shock?) in 2007 Crossed TS multiple times because it has ripples TS is not stationary – it forms, decays, and re-forms again over hours – very dynamic High turbulence in heliosheath, then more coherent , yet variable field… Literature predicted that B shold increase beyond heliopause, but it actually decreased. Anser from Parker + WSM: (Brecent ~ 1 nT – record low) Heliopause = boundary of heliosphere. P: just look at standard paradigm. Or is it open front and back, if there’s motion? Voyagers I and II will cross Heliopause in coming years… Hopi petroglyph with spiral sun with ripples for heliopause 4:00 PM-6:00 PM, 103 (Moscone South) U34A. Consequences of an Unusually Long and Deep Solar Minimum ID# U34A-01 Location: 103 (Moscone South) Time of Presentation: Dec 16 4:00 PM - 4:18 PM Solar magnetic field and irradiance: how unusual is the current minimum? (Invited) S. K. Solanki1, 2; N. Krivova1; L. A. Vieira1, 3 1. Max-Planck-Institute for Solar System Research, Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany. 2. School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea, Republic of. 3. French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Paris, France. In many respects the current minimum of solar activity is rather different from other minima during the last half century, which has seen the Sun in a state of unusually high activity. This uncommon minimum has fascinated solar physicists. Of particular importance for our understanding is the behaviour of the magnetic field, which is the source of all activity observed in the solar atmosphere, including the heliosphere. Furthermore, the evolution of dark and bright magnetic features on the solar surface modulates the solar irradiance, which could directly influence the Earth's climate. In this presentation observations and models of the evolution of the Sun's magnetic field and irradiance are reviewed. After discussing the variation of these quantities over the solar cycle and from cycle to cycle, the current minimum is considered in greater detail. It is compared to earlier minima going back to the Maunder minimum and, in a more averaged sense, to solar activity and irradiance during the whole Holocene. Questions that will be considered are: Are we leaving the period of high solar activity (a grand maximum) to enter into a phase of more moderate activity, or even into a grand minimum? How could such a change in the level of the magnetic field and irradiance aid us in gaining further insight into the nature of the Sun's influence on the Earth's climate? Contact Information Sami K. Solanki, Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany, 37191, click here to send an email Why study the current minimum? Does the Sun significantly influence climate? Need to know how strong a secular trend is shown by solar irradiance The Sun’s B & its interaction w/ motions in solar interior drive irradiance variations. Solar activity and the corona and heliosphere -> need to know the present B relative to previous minima The present min may provide ways of testing the B’s generation Predicability tells us something about the maturity of our science – about the same as economics – pretty bad Sun’s open B is lower now than at any time in space age Sunspot number 762 spotless days (til 1 dec 09) = twice as manay as aerage of previous minima, but similar to 4 cycles in late 19th C POLAR MAGNETIC FIELD: During activity min the interplanetary B is fed mainly by B flux at solar poles The polar B during the current min is about half that during last 3 min But not so strange compared to 18th C TSI: during present min is 0.28 W/m-2 lower than average of two previous min (Claus Frohlich) TOTAL MAGNETIC FLUX integrated over whole disk currently 60% that of last min – even excluding poles’ open flux. Structure of B in network is different obtained from integrated MDI full-disk magnetograms reduced B flux in 2009 – B field can explain currently reduced TSI -? TSI variations are due to surface B (Wenzler et al 2006) -=> contradicts Frohlich For the first time we’re seeing a secular change in the total flux. Can explain it with overlapping solar cycles emergence of flux from new cycle before end of previous cycle (Harvey 1993) long lifetime (decay time) of open (and closed flux) Schriver__ Can we produce low total B-field starting from Sunspot number, model of Solanki et al (2000, 2002) explained secular variations of total and open B flux Extension by Viera and Solanki (2010) distinguish between rapidly and slowly decaying open flux Better reproduce observations – specially variation over cycle And the open flux and irradiance? new model reproduces measured and reconst. Open flux and TSI better than old model – need to distinguish between fast & slow open flux model reproduces present min surprisingly well, but assuming that THERE IS NO CYCLE 24 - then we get good match cycle 24 is expected to be relatively weak or peak late or some combination relation to maunder min: according to Solanki model, MM had close to zero total and open flux in present min, B flux has dropped roughly to half its value in previous 5 minima we are still far from a mm state, but are at a level similar to 19th C, also with respect to length of cycles Conclusions: current min has secular variations in both B and irradiance There were indirect evidence for this – now direct Simple models of B flux evolution reproduce data reolativelyy well, including unusual current min Behaviour of present min suggests that the Sun is returning to an activity level like that in 19th C Or like that of most of Holocene (last 7000 years) – Sunspot number has been unusually high in last 50-60 years – grand max Sun is leaving its recent grand max Effects of low solar activity upon the cosmic radiation and the interplanetary … McCracken 1. Paleo cosmic ray record from 10Be and 36Cl (and 14C). also solar flares can produce nitrates which get trapped in polar ice caps 2. the past 1100 years 3. … McCracken analyzes minima with various filters. See Beer et at 2007, McCracken 2001 Looks like we might be in a Gleissberg min now. He says Dalton Min Low-pass filter shows that last 50-60 years have been unusually high period of solar ativity (and rising) – Sami Solanki agrees, despite this WSM My notes ; Gleissberg Min every 80-85 years: 1650-1700 1800-1820 1900 2008-2010 ID# U34A-03 Location: 103 (Moscone South) Time of Presentation: Dec 16 4:36 PM - 4:46 PM The Torsional Oscillation and the Solar Minimum R. Howe1; F. Hill1; R. Komm1; J. Christensen-Dalsgaard2; J. Schou3; M. J. Thompson4 1. National Solar Observatory, Tucson, AZ, United States. 2. Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark. 3. HEPL Solar Physicss, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States. 4. School of Applied Mathematics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom. The so-called torsional oscillation is a pattern of zonal flow bands, detected at the solar surface by direct Doppler measurements and within the convection zone by helioseismic measurements such as those carried out by the Global Oscillations Network Group and the Michelson Doppler Imager, that migrates from mid-latitudes towards the equator and poles with each solar cycle. In the current minimum the low-latitude branch of the pattern can be seen to have taken at least a year longer to migrate towards the equator than was the case in the previous minimum. A flow configuration matching that of the previous minimum was reached during 2008, and by early 2009 the fast-rotating belt associated with the new cycle had reached the latitude at which the onset of activity was seen in Cycle 23, but magnetic activity has remained low. We will present the most recent results and consider the implications for the new solar cycle. Contact Information Rachel Howe, Tucson, Arizona, USA, 85719, click here to send an email Torsional oscillation shows branch of cycle 24 emerged at high lats around 2004 Looks like a reasonable normal cycle to her, just coming late, drawn out. Cycle 21:10.6 yr, cycle 22: 9.6 yr, cycle 23:12 yr+ Mapping sun’s atmosphere into interplanetary space – Janet Luhman (short blond hair), SSL, UC Berkeley They’ve picked up Munoz-jaramillo’s model – pretty spinning fields But magnetograms reveal more of the details we care about Some PhD student is modeling emerging flux like Yuhong Fan She’s showing lots of pictues from public domain More low-latitutde coronal holes than usual for quiet Sun – more higher-order poles Past min was 1995-1996 (2 yrs). Current min 2006-2010 (4 yrs) Little flurries of activity – not enough to turn things around (Tom Bogdan said two C-class flares since yesterday! In the N hem! Most of the few spots have been n the S hem…) Cosmic ray flux keeps rising – maybe it will help us resolve questions about influence on clouds. ID# U34A-07 Location: 103 (Moscone South) Time of Presentation: Dec 16 5:32 PM - 5:42 PM The Unusual Time History of Galactic an Anomalous Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere over the Deep Solar Minimum of Cycle 23/24 F. B. McDonald1; W. R. Webber2; D. V. Reames1; E. C. Stone3; A. C. Cummings3; B. C. Heikkila4; N. Lal4 1. Institute of Physical Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States. 2. Department of Physics and Astronomy, New Mexico State, Las Cruces, NM, United States. 3. California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States. 4. NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States. The continuing Quiet Sun of the cycle 23/24 solar minimum has resulted in cosmic ray intensity time-histories at 1 AU that are very different from those of the 1965 and 1987 solar minima at the same phase of the 22 year heliomagnetic cycle. Instead of the sharp intensity peak of these earlier cycles, the cosmic ray intensity displays a broad plateau followed by an on-going increase that has now lasted for 1.4 years. Over the cycle 19 and 21 solar minima there was a suppression of the cosmic ray intensity at rigidities below 0.5 GV while at neutron monitor energies (72 GeV) the intensity was 3-5% higher than in qA>0 cycle. For cycle 23/24 in 2009.5 the 200 MeV/n He intensity is 25% higher than its 1987 and the neutron monitor data from the North-West University 4 Station Network is within 1.5% of those of 1987. However, the intensity of 13.5 MeV/n ACR oxygen intensity is a factor of 2 below its 1987 level. These complex spectral differences are clearly caused by the decrease in strength of the interplanetary field below the level of previous minima and the relatively high inclination of the heliospheric current sheet that persisted until ~ 2009.3 before decreasing to lower values. In the heliosheath cosmic ray data from Voyager 1 and 2 are showing significant increases that reflect the changes that are occurring in the solar wind and magnetic fields in the distant heliosphere. The relative behavior of 10 MeV GCR electrons and 150-380 MeV/n He suggest these particles follow a different route entering the heliosphere than the higher energy cosmic rays. At this time the deep solar minimum is continuing so further changes in the cosmic ray time histories can be expected. Contact Information Frank B. McDonald, College Park, Maryland, USA, 20742-2431, click here to send an email Burlaga + NESS: RADIAL AND SOLAR CYCLE VARIATIONS OF B FIELDS IN THE HELIOSHEATH We expected B to increase but it’s decreasing