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Parmesan et al. Suppl climate attribution in ecology pg. SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL Table 1. Full references (superscripts as in table) 1 Vernon, J.E.N. (2008). Mass extinctions and ocean acidification: biological constraints on geological dilemmas. Coral Reefs, 27, 459. 2 Lesser, M.P. (1997). Oxidative stress causes coral bleaching during exposure to elevated temperatures. Coral Reefs, 16, 187-192. Jones, R.J., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Larkum, A.W.D. & Schreiber, U. (1998). Temperatureinduced bleaching of corals begins with impairment of the CO2 fixation mechanism in zooxanthellae. Plant Cell & Environ., 21, 1219-1230. Glynn, P.W. & D’Croz, L. (1990). Experimental evidence for high temperature stress as the cause of El Niño-coincident coral mortality. Coral Reefs, 8, 181-191. Anthony, K.R.N., Connolly, S.R. & Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (2007). Bleaching, energetics, and coral mortality risk: Effects of temperature, light, and sediment regime. Limnol. & Oceanog., 52, 716-726. 3 Weiss, S.B., Murphy, D.D. & White, R.R. (1988). Sun, slope and butterflies: topographic determinants of habitat quality for Euphydryas editha. Ecology, 69, 1486-1496. Hellmann, J.J. (2002). The effect of an environmental change on mobile butterfly larvae and the nutritional quality of their hosts. J. Anim. Ecol., 71, 925-936. 4,7 Hoegh-Guldberg O. (1999). Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world’s coral reefs. Mar. Freshw. Res., 50, 839-66. 5 Singer (1971) Ph.D. dissertation, Stanford University. Singer, M.C. & Ehrlich, P.R. (1979). Population dynamics of the checkerspot butterfly Euphydryas editha. Fortschritte der Zoologie, 25, 53-60. 1 Parmesan et al. Suppl climate attribution in ecology pg. 2 Ehrlich, P.R., Murphy, D.D., Singer, M.C. & Sherwood, C.B. (1980). Extinction, reduction, stability and increase: The responses of checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas) populations to the California drought. Oecologia, 46, 101-105. McLaughlin, J.F., Hellmann, J.J., Boggs, C.L. & Ehrlich, P. R. (2002a). Climate change hastens population extinctions. PNAS, 99, 6070-6074. McLaughlin, J.F., Hellmann, J.J., Boggs, C.L., Ehrlich, P.R. (2002b). The route to extinction: population dynamics of a threatened butterfly. Oecologia,132, 538-548. Singer, M.C. & Parmesan, C. (2010). Phenological asynchrony between herbivorous insects and their hosts: a naturally-evolved starting point for climate change impacts? Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. London B, 365(155), 3161-3176. 6 Thomas, C.D., Singer, M.C. & Boughton, D. (1996). Catastrophic extinction of population sources in a butterfly metapopulation. American Naturalist, 148, 957-975. 8 Parmesan, C. (1996) Climate and species' range. Nature, 382, 765-766. Parmesan, C. (2003). Butterflies as bio-indicators of climate change impacts. ch. 24 In: Evolution and Ecology Taking Flight: Butterflies as Model Systems, [Eds., Boggs, C.L., Watt, W.B. & Ehrlich, P.R.]. University of Chicago Press, pp. 541-560. Parmesan, C. (2005). Case Study: Euphydryas editha. Special essay, pp. 56-60 In: Climate Change and Biodiversity. Ed. by T Lovejoy and L Hannah (Yale University Press). 9 Parmesan, C. (1996). Climate and species' range. Nature, 382, 765-766. Johnson, T., Dozier, J. & Michaelsen, J. (1999). Climate change and Sierra Nevada snowpack. IAHS Publication, 256, 63–70. 10 Fedorov, A.V. & Philander, S.G. (2000). Is El Niño Changing? Science, 288, 1997-2002 . Hansen J. et al. (2006). Global temperature change PNAS, 103(39), 14288-14293. Parmesan et al. Suppl climate attribution in ecology pg. 3 Latif, M. & Keenlyside, N.S. (2009). El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming. PNAS, 106(49), 20578-20583. 11 Karl, T.R., Knight, R.W., Easterling, D.R. & Quayle, R.G. (1996). Indices of climate change for the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77, 279–292. Kapnick, S. & Hall, A. (2012). Causes of recent changes in western North American snowpack. Climate Dynamics, 38, 1885-1889. 12 Hoegh-Guldberg O. (1999). Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world’s coral reefs. Mar. Freshw. Res., 50, 839-66. Wilkinson CR, ed. (2000). Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network: Status of Coral Reefs of the World in 2000. Townsville, Queensland: Aust. Inst. Mar. Sci. Figure 3. Full references (superscripts same as in figure 3) 1 McCleery, R.H. & Perrins, C.M. (1998). Temperature and egg-laying trends Nature, 391, 30-31 Crick, H.Q.P., Dudley, C., Glue, D.E. & Thompson, D.L. (1997). UK birds are laying eggs earlier. Nature 388, 526. 2 Southward, A.J., Hawkins, S.J., Burrows, M.T. (1995). Seventy years' observations of changes in distribution and abundance of zooplankton and intertidal organisms in the western English Channel in relation to rising sea temperature. Journal of Thermal Biology, 20, 12755. Southward, A.J., Langmead, O., Hardman-Mountford, N.J., Aiken, J., Boalch, G.T. et al. (2005). Long-term oceanographic and ecological research in the western English Channel. Advances in Marine Biology, 47, 1-105. 3 Kearney, M.R., Briscoe, N.J., Karoly, D.J., Porter, W.P., Norgate, M. & Sunnucks, P. (2010). Parmesan et al. Suppl climate attribution in ecology pg. 4 Early emergence in a butterfly causally linked to anthropogenic warming. Biology Letters, 6, 674-677. 4 Parmesan, C. (1996). Climate and species’ range. Nature, 382, 765–766. Parmesan, C. (2003). Butterflies as bio-indicators of climate change impacts. ch. 24 In: Evolution and Ecology Taking Flight: Butterflies as Model Systems, [Eds., Boggs, C.L., Watt, W.B. & Ehrlich, P.R.]. University of Chicago Press, pp. 541-560. Karl, T.R., Knight, R.W., Easterling, D.R. & Quayle, R.G. (1996). Indices of climate change for the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77, 279–292. Dunn, P.O. & Winkler, D.W. (1999). Climate change has affected the breeding date of tree swallows throughout North America. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B, 266, 2487–2490. Johnson, T., Dozier, J. & Michaelsen, J. (1999). Climate change and Sierra Nevada snowpack. IAHS Publication 256:63–70. Stott, P.A. (2003). Attribution of regional-scale temperature changes to anthropogenic and natural causes. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 10.10292003GL017324. Karoly, D.J., Braganza, K., Stott, P.A., Arblaster, J.M., Meehl, G.A., Broccoli, A.J. & Dixon, K.W. (2003). Detection of a human influence on North American climate. Science 302:1200–1203. Zwiers, F.W. & Zhang, X. (2003). Towards regional-scale climate change detection. Journal of Climate, 16, 793–797. 5 Foden, W., Midgley, G.F., Hughes, G., Bond, W.J., Thuiller, W., Hoffman, M.T., Prince Kaleme, Underhill, L.G., Rebelo, A. & Hannah, L. (2007). A changing climate is eroding the geographical range of the Namib Desert tree Aloe through population declines and Parmesan et al. Suppl climate attribution in ecology pg. dispersal lags. Diversity and Distributions, 13, 645–653. 6 Beaugrand, G., Brander, K.M., Lindley, J.A., Souissi, S. & Reid, P.C. (2003). Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North Sea. Nature, 426, 661-664. Beaugrand, G. & Kirby, R.R. (2010). Spatial changes in the sensitivity of Atlantic cod to climate-driven effects in the plankton. Climate Res., 41, 15-19. 7 Parmesan, C. &, Yohe, G. (2003). A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37-42. Root, T.L., Price, J.T., Hall, K.R., Schneider, S.H., Rosenzweig, C. & Pounds, J.A. (2003). Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature, 421, 57-60. Root, T.L., MacMynowski, D.P., Mastrandrea, M.D. & Schneider, S.H. (2005). Humanmodified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution. PNAS, 102(21), 74657469. Parmesan, C. (2007). Influence of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming. Global Change Biology, 13, 1860-1872. Rosenzweig, C., Karoly D., Vicarelli, M., Neofotis, P., Qigang Wu, Q., Casassa, G., Menzel, A., Root, T.L., Estrella, N., Seguin, B., Tryjanowski, P., Liu, C., Rawlins, S., & Anton Imeson, A. (2008). Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature, 435, 353-358. 8 Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (1999). Climate Change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs. Mar. Freshwater Res., 50, 839-866. Fedorov, A.V. & Philander, S.G. (2000). Is El Niño Changing? Science, 288, 1997-2002 Hansen J. et al. (2006). Global temperature change PNAS, 103(39), 14288-14293. Latif, M. & Keenlyside, N.S. (2009). El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global 5 Parmesan et al. Suppl climate attribution in ecology pg. 6 warming. PNAS, 106(49), 20578-20583. 9 Oechel, W.C., Vourlitis, G.L., Hastings, S.J., Zulueta, R.C., Hinzman, L. & Kane, D. (2000). Acclimation of ecosystem CO2 exchange in the Alaska Arctic in response to decadal warming. Nature, 406, 978–981. Sturm, M., Racine, C., & Tape, K. (2001). Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic. Nature, 411:546–547; Tape, K., Sturm, M. & Racine, C. (2006). The evidence for shrub expansion in Northern Alaska and the Pan-Arctic. Global Change Biology, 12(4), 686-702. 10 Pauly, D., Watson, R & Alder, J. (2005). Global Trends in World Fisheries: Impacts on Marine Ecosystems and Food Security. Special Issue: Fisheries: A Future? Philosophical Transactions Royal Soc: Biological Sciences, 360(1453), 5-12.