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An analysis has been made of key issues of contemporary global climate change. The principal attention
has been paid to the discussion of uncertainties of existing observation data and numerical modelling
results. As far as numerical modelling is concerned a necessity has been emphasized of an analysis of
present day models from the viewpoint of their variability to simulate real climate change which results
from nonlinear interactions between numerous climatic system’s components taking also into account
potential contributions of cosmic factors such as solar activity.
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K. Ya. KONDRATYEV
UNCERTAINTIES OF CLIMATE OBSEVATION DATA AND SIMULATION MODELLING
INTRODUCTION
An unprecedented increase of interest in the problems of climate observed during the last decades
(this refers, in particular, to mass media) has stimulated the working out of both scientific and applied
developments, which provided a considerable advance in understanding the causes of present climate
changes, the laws of paleoclimate, and in substantiation of scenarios of possible changes of climate in
future (the matter concerns with scenarios and not with predictions whose possibilities should be assessed
as doubtful) [1-146]. Unfortunately, the growing interest in the problems of climate is partly explained by
the important role of various speculative exaggerations and apocalyptic predictions (e.g., complete
melting of the arctic sea ice in the first half of this century) due to which the problems of climate change
formulated as a concept of anthropogenic global warming have become a focus of geopolicy. It is a
paradox that Presidents and Prime Ministers of various countries discuss whether the Kyoto Protocol
(KP) should be considered as a scientifically justified document. The confusion of the situation is
determined, in particular, by lack of sufficiently clear and agreed-upon terminology. Leaving out of
account a very complicated situation with the definition of the notion of climate (this subject needs a
separate discussion), one should remember, for instance, that in the UN FCCC the notion of climate
change was defined as being anthropogenically induced. One of the main unsolved problems consists in
the absence of convincing quantitative estimates of the contribution of anthropogenic factors into the
formation of global climate (there is no doubt, however, that anthropogenic forcings on climate do exist).
Some international documents containing analyses of the present ideas of climate use the prevalent notion
of consensus with respect to scientific conclusions drawn in these documents, as if the development of
science was determined not by different views and respective discussions but by a general agreement (and
even voting) on some concrete problems. Apart from definitions, of importance is the problem of
uncertain conceptual estimates concerning various aspects of climate problems. This refers, in particular,
to the main conclusion in the summary of the IPCC-2001 report [55]: “… An increasing body of
observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and most of the observed warming over the
last fifty years is likely to have been due to human activities”.
It is a pity that in the recent (2003) paper in the British newspaper “The Guardian” the former
Chairman of IPCC WG-1 Professor J. Houghton compared the threat of anthropogenic climate changes
with weapons of mass destruction and accused the USA of their refusal to support the concept of global
warming and KP, which, in his opinion, is the basic cause of this threat. No matter how paradoxical it
may be, such a statement has been made against a background of an increasing understanding of
imperfection of the present global climate models and the absence of their adequate verification, which
makes the predictions on the basis of numerical modelling not more than conditional scenarios [61-63,
65-66, 68-69, 72-80, 82, 120, 122]. As for the USA, huge efforts of this country to support climate studies
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should be backed. These efforts consist in special emphasis on the improvement of the observing systems
[28] and on developments in the field of climate problems in general [126,128]. The US expenses on
these problems planned for 2004 reach 4.5 billion dollars.
The statement published on behalf of the intergovernmental group G-8 on 27 July 2003 [117]
emphasizes that in the years to come, efforts will be undertaken in three directions: 1) coordination of
strategies of global observations; 2) provision of the pure, stable and efficient use of energy; 3) provision
of stable agricultural production and biodiversity.
In the context of climate problems, uncertainty has become a key notion [84]. Of course, there is
nothing new in that the present views of global climate and the causes of its changes are very uncertain.
However, there are principal differences in estimates of the scales of such uncertainties. The basic
conclusions of the IPCC-2001 Report are that these uncertainties are not critically important. This has
been mentioned, in particular, in the summary of the report in the form of the following conclusion:
“There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last fifty years is
attributable to human activities”.
The Earth’s climate system has markedly changed during the time period from the industrial
revolution, with some changes having been of anthropogenic origin. The climate change consequences
determine a serious challenge to people responsible for the ecological policy, which determines an
urgency of objective information on climate change, its impact and possible response to climate change.
With this aim in view, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UN Environmental
Programme organized in 1988 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC incorporates
three working groups (WG) whose spheres of responsibility include: 1) scientific aspects of climate and
its change (WG-I), 2) effects on and adaptation to climate (WG-II), 3) analysis of possibilities to limit
(restrain) climate changes (WG-III).
During the last years the IPCC prepared three detailed reports (1990, 1996, 2001) as well as some
special reports and technical papers. Griggs and Noguer [41] made a bried review of the first volume of
the Third IPCC Report (TAR) prepared by WG-I for the period June 1998 – January 2001 with the
perticipation of 122 leading authors and 515 experts, each with their materials. Four hundred and twenty
experts reviewed the first volume and 23 experts edited it. Besides, several hundred reviewers and
representatives of many governments made additional remarks. With the participation of delegates from
99 countries and 50 scientists recommended by the leading authors, the final discussion of TAR was held
in Shanghai on 17-20 January 2001. “Summary for decision-makers” was approved after a detailed
discussion by 59 specialists.
Analysis of the observation data contained in TAR has led to the conclusion about the presence of
global climate change. In this connection, the Report [55] gives a detailed review of the data of
observations of the spatial-temporal variability of concentrations of various GHGs and aerosol in the
atmosphere. An adequacy of numerical models has been discussed from the viewpoint of consideration of
the climate-forming factors and usefulness of models to predict climate change in the future. The main
conclusion about anthropogenic impacts on climate is that “there is new and stronger evidence that most
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of the warming observed during the last 50 years has been determined by human activity”. According to
all prognostic estimates considered in TAR, during the 21st century both SAT increase and sea level rise
should take place.
When characterizing the IPCC data on the empirical diagnostics of climate, Folland et al. [32]
drew attention to the uncertainty of definitions of some basic notions. According to the IPCC
therminology, climate changes are statistically substantial variations of an average state or its variability,
whose stability is preserved for long time periods (decades and longer). Climate changes can be of natural
origin (connected both with internal processes and exteernal impacts) and (or) they can be determined by
anthropogenic factors (changes in the atmospheric composition or land use). This definition differs from
that suggested in the Framework Climate Change Convention (FCCC) where climate changes are only of
anthropogenic origin in contrast to natural climate changes. In accordance with the IPCC therminology,
climatic variability means variations of the average state and other statistical characteristics (dispersion,
repeatability of extreme events, etc.) of climate on every temporal and spatial scale, beyond individual
weather phenomena. The climate variability can be both of natural (due to internal processes and external
forcings) and anthropogenic origin. These are internal variability and external variability. As Folland et
al. [32] noted, seven key questions are most important for diagnostics of the observed changes and
variability of climate: 1) how much significat is climate warming? 2) is the present warming significant?
3) how rapidly had the climate changed in the distant past? 4) have precipitation and atmospheric water
content changed? 5) do changes of general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean take place? 6) have
the climate variability and climate extremes changed? 7) are the observed trends internally coordinated?
The observation data reliability plays the fyndamental role for the adequate empirical diagnostics
of climate. However, information about numerous meteorological parameters, which is very important for
documentation, detection and attribution of climate changes, is inadequate for reliable conclusions. This
especially concerns the global trends of parameters (e.g., precipitation) which are characterized by a great
regional variability.
Folland et al. [32] answered the questions above. A comparison of the secular change of average
global avrtage annual sea surface temperature (SST), land surface air temperature (LSAT) and nocturnal
air temperature over the ocean (NMAT) for the period 1861-2000 revealed on the whole some similarity
though the warming in the 1980s from LSAT data turned out to be stronger, and the NMAT data showed
a moderate cooling in the end of the 19th century, not demonstrated by SST data. The global trend of
temperature can be cautiously interpreted as an equivalently linear warming over 140 years constituting
0.61oC at a 95% confidence level with an uncertainty ±0.16oC. Later on, in 1901 a warming by 0.57oC
took place with an uncertainty ±0.17oC. These estimates suggested the conclusion that beginning from the
end of the 19th century, an average global warming by 0.6oC took place with the interval of estimates
corresponding to a 95% confidence level equal to 0.4-0.8oC.
The spatial structure of the temperature field in the 20th century was characterized by a
comparatively uniform warming in the tropics, but a considerable variability in the extratropical latitudes.
The warming between 1910 and 1945 was initially concentrated in the Northern Atlantic and the adjacent
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regions. The Northern Htmisphere was characterized by a cooling between 1946 and 1975, while in the
Southern Hemisphere some warming was observed in this period. The temperature rise during several last
decades (1976-2000) turned out, on the whole, to be globally synchronous and was clearly manifested on
the Northern Hemisphere continents in winter and in spring. In some Southern Hemisphere regions and in
the Antarctic there was a small all-year-round cooling. A temperature decrease in the Northern Atlantic
between 1960 and 1985 was later followed by an opposite trend. On the whole, the climate warming over
the period of measurements was more uniform in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern
Hemisphere. In many continental regions in the period 1950-1993 the temperature increased more rapidly
at night than in the day time (this does not refer, however, to the coastal regions). The rate of temperature
increase varied from 0.1 to 0.2oC/10 years.
According to the data of aerological observations, the air temperature in the lower and middle
troposphere was increasing after 1958 at a rate of 0.1oC/10 years, but in the upper troposphere (after
1960) it pracically remained constant. A combined analysis of the aerological and satellite information
has shown that in the period 1979-2000 the temperature trend in the lower troposphere was weak,
whereas near the land surface it turned out to be statistically significant and reached 0.16±0.06oC/10
years. The statistically substantial trend of the difference between the Earth’s surface and the lower
troposphere constituted 0.13±0.06oC/10 years, which differs from the data for the period 1958-1978,
when the average global temperature in the lower troposphere increased more rapidly (by 0.03oC/10
years) than near the surface. Considerable differences between the temperature trends in the lower
troposphere and near the surface are most likely real. So far, these differences cannot be convincingly
explained. The climate warming in the Northern Hemisphere observed in the 20th century was the most
substantial over the last 1000 years [94]. Due to [32], the observation data do not permit to confirm the
global scales of the warming in the Minor Ice Age and Middle Age periods. However, both these
conclusions remain contradictory [97].
Special attention has been paid to the discussion in the IPCC-2001 Report of possibility to predict
future climate changes. The chaotic character of the atmospheric dynamics limits the long-term weather
forecasts by one-two weeks and hinders the prefiction of a detailed climate change (e.g., it is impossible
to predict precipitation in Great Britain for the winter of 2050). However, it is possible to consider climate
projections, that is, to develop scenarios of probable climate changes due to continuing growth of GHGs
concentrations in the atmosphere. Such scenarios may be useful for decision-makers in the field of
ecological policy. The basic means to substantiate such scenarios are numerical climate models that
simulate interactive processes in the climatic system “atmosphere-ocean-land surface-cryospherebiosphere”. As Collins and Senior [26] noted, there are many such models, and in this respect a serious
difficulty is connected with an almost unsoluble problen of choosing the best model. There remain only a
possibility to compare the climate scenarios obtained using various models.
According to the IPCC recommendations, four levels of projections reliability are considered: 1)
from reliable to very probable (in this case there is an agreement between the results for most of the
models); 2) very probable (an agreement of new projections obtained with the latest models; 3) probable
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(new projections with an agreement for a small number of models); 4) restrictedly probable (model results
are not certain but changes are physically possible). A principal difficulty in substantiation of projections
consists in impossibility to unanimously predict the evolution of GHGs in the future, which determines a
necessity to take into account a totality of various scenarios. The huge thermal inertia of the World Ocean
dictates a possibility of delayed climatic impact of the GHGs concentrations which had already increased.
Calculations of average annual average global SAT using the energy-balance climate model with
various scenarios of the temporal variations of CO2 concentrations have led to SAT intervals in 2020,
2050, and 2100 to be 0.3-0.9, 0.7-2.6, and 1.4-5.8oC, respectively. Due to the ocean thermal inertia, a
delayed warming should manifest itself within 0.1-0.2oC/10 years (such a delay can take place during
several decades).
The following conclusions can be attributed to the category of projections of the highest
reliability [26]: 1) the surface air warming should be accompanied by a tropospheric warming and
stratospheric cooling (the latter is due to a decrease of the upward longwave radiation flux from the
troposphere); 2) a faster warming on land compared to oceanic regions (as a result of the great thermal
inertia of the ocean); a faster warming in the high-mountain regions (due to albedo feedbacks); 3) the
aerosol-induced atmospheric cooling holds a SAT increase (new estimates suggest the conclusion about a
weaker manifestation of the aerosol impact); 4) the presence of the warming minima in the North Atlantic
and in the circumpolar regions of the oceans in the Southern Hemisphere due to mixing in the oceanic
thickness; 5) a decrease of the snow and sea ice cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere; 6) an increase
of the average global content of water vapour in the atmosphere, enhancement of precipitation and
evaporation, as well as intensification of the global water cycle; 7) intensification (on the average) of
precipitation in the tropical and high latitudes, but its attenuation in the sub-tropical latitudes; 8) an
increase of precipitation intensity (more substantial than expected as a result of precipitation
enhancement, on the average); 9) a summertime decrease of soil moisture in the middle regions of the
continents due to intensified evaporation; 10) an intensification of the El Niño regime in the tropical
Pacific with a stronger warming in the eastern regions than in the western ones, which is accompanied by
an eastward shift of the precipitation zones; 11) an intensification of the interannual variability of the
summer monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere; 12) a more frequent appearance of high temperature
extrema but infrequent occurrence of temperature minima (with an increasing amplitude of the diurnal
temperature course in many regions and with a greater enhancement of nocturnal temperature minima
compared to the daytime maxima); 13) a higher reliability of conclusions about temperature changes
compared to those about precipitation; 14) an attenuation of the thermohaline circulation (THC) that
causes a decrease of the warming in the North Atlantic (the effect of the THC dynamics cannot however
compensate for the warming in West Europe due to the growing concentration of GHGs); 15) the most
intensive penetration of the warming into the ocean depth in high latitudes where the vertical mixing is
most intensive.
As for the estimates characterized by a lower level of reliability, of special interest is the
conclusion (level 4) about the absence of common opinion with regard to changing frequency of storms in
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middle latitudes as well as changing frequency of occurrence and rate of tropical cyclones in conditions
of global warming. An important task of future developments consists in improving climate models aimed
at (eventually) reaching the level of reliability that would enable one to predict climate changes.
Allen [4] discussed basic conclusions contained in the “Summary for policy-makers” (SPM) of
the Third IPCC Report and, first of all, the main conclusion: “There is new and stronger evidence that
most of the warming observed during the last 50 years should be attributed to human activity”. This
conclusion supplements the statement according to which “as follows from the present climate models, it
is very unlikely that the warming taking place during the last 100 years was determined only by the
internal variability” (“very unlikely” means that there is less than one chance of ten for an opposite
statement to be well-founded).
Naturally, the reality of such a statement depends on an adequate modelling of the observed
climatic variability. Analysis of calculation results using six different models has shown that three of six
models reproduce the climate variability on time scales from 10 to 50 years which agrees with the
observation data. One more conclusion contained in SPM consists in that “reconstruction of data on
climate for the last 1000 years shows that the present warming is unusual and it is unlikely that it can be
of only natural origin” (‘unlikely” means that there is less than one chance of three for an opposite
conclusion).
This conclusion is supplemented with the following: “Numerical modelling of the response to
only natural disturbing forcings … does not explain the warming that took place in the second half of the
20th century”. This conclusion is based on analysis of results of the numerical modelling of changes in the
average global SAT during the last 50 years, from which it follows that a consideration of natural forcings
(solar activity, volcanic eruptions) has demonstrated a climate cooling (mainly due to large-scale
eruptions in 1982 and 1991), which enabled one to conclude that the impact of only natural climatic
factors is unlikely. However, there remains only one chance of three that it was in this way: such a
carefulness is connected with insufficient reliability based on indirect information on natural forcings in
the past.
Results of numerical modelling suggested the conclusion that “Most of the models which
consider both GHGs and sulphate aerosols, agree with the data of observations for the last 50 years”.
Model calculations cannot explain the pre-1940 climate warming with only anthropogenic factors taken
into account, but they are quite adequate considering both natural and anthropogenic impacts (due to
GHGs and sulphate aerosol). It was mentioned in SPM TAR that “these results … do not exclude
possibilities of contributions of other forcings”. Therefore it is possible that a good agreement of the
calculated and observed secular trends of SAT is partly determined by a random mutual compensation of
uncertainties. An important illustration of inadequacy of the numerical modelling results is their
difference with observations regarding temperature changes near the Earth’s surface and in the free
troposphere. If, according to models, the tropospheric temperature increases more rapidly than near the
surface, the analysis of observation data for the period 1979-2000 reveals another situation: the
temperature increase in the free troposphere is slower and probably is absent at all.
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Assessing the content of the IPCC-2000 Report, Griggs and Noguer [41] believe that this report
1. contains a most complete description of the present ideas about the known and unknown aspects
of the climate system and the associated factors;
2. is based on the knowledge of an international group of experts;
3. is prepared based on the open and professional reviewing;
4. is based on scientific publications.
It is a pity, however, that neither of these statements can be persuasively substantiated. Therefore
the IPCC-2000 Report has been strongly criticized in scientific literature (see, in particular, [1, 13-15, 21,
30-31, 58-59, 62-63, 65-66, 68-69, 75, 83, 86, 90, 120, 122, 134]).
2. EMPIRICAL DIAGNOSTICS OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE
The main cause of contradictions in studies of the present climate and its changes consists in
inadequate available observed databases from the viewpoint of their completeness and quality. In this
connection, Mohr and Bridge [100] carried out a thorough analysis of evolution of the global observing
system. Of course, climate is characterized by many parameters, such as air temperature and humidity
near the Earth surface and in the free atmosphere; precipitation (liquid and solid); cloud amount, the
height of their lower and upper boundaries; microphysical and optical properties of clouds; radiation
budget and its components; microphysical and optical parameters of atmospheric aerosols; atmospheric
chemical composition, etc. Meanwhile, an empirical analysis of climatic data is limited, as a rule, by
results of SAT observations, since only in this case data series for 100-150 years are available. However,
even these data series are heterogeneous, especially with regard to the global database, which is the main
source of information for substantiation of the global warming concept [141]. Also, the fact should be
borne in mind that the globally averaged secular trend of SAT values is based, to a great extent, on the
use of imperfect observed data on sea surface temperature (SST).
The most important (and controversial) conclusion of the IPCC-2001 Report [55] about the
anthropogenic nature of present climate changes is based on analysis of the SAT and SST combined data,
on the secular trend of mean global average annual surface temperature (GST). In this connection, two
questions appear: 1) about the information content of the notion of GST (this problem was formulated by
Essex and McKitrick [31]; 2) about reliability of GST values determined, in particular, by fragmentary
data for the Southern Hemisphere, as well as still unsolved problem of urban “heat islands” [91], etc. 3)
about reliability of the estimates of SAT trends.
Studies on reliability of the SAT observations are still continued from the viewpoint of
observation techniques. During more than 100 years the SAT was measured with the glass thermometers,
but now arrangements to protect the thermometers from direct solar radiation and wind have been
repeatedly changed, which dictates a necessity to filter out the SAT data to provide homogeneous data
series. In the period from April till August 2000 at the station of the Nebraska State University, USA
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(40o83’N; 96o67’W), Hubbard and Lin [49] carried out comparative SAT observations over smooth grass
cover with the use of various protections of thermometers. At the same time, direct solar radiation and
wind speed were measured. Analysis of observations has shown that differences of observed data can
reach several tenths of degree. Therefore a technique has been proposed to increase the homogeneity of
observation series, which substantially increases the homogeneity of the series. But it does not permit to
exclude the effect of calibration errors and drift of the temperature sensors sensitivity.
In the context of diagnostics of the climate observation data, emphasis should be laid on analysis
of climate variability in which of importance is a consideration of not averages but moments of higher
orders. Unfortunately, there have been no attempts to use this approach. The same approach refers to
estimates of the internal correlation of observation series. McKitrick [98], having analyzed the secular
trend of SAT, showed that with the filtered-out contribution to temperature variations during the last
several decades at the expense of internal correlations (i.e., determined by the climatic system’s inertia), it
turns out that practically the temperature has not changed. Undertaking an estimation of statistical
significance and spatial ingomogeneity of linear SAT trends, Pichugin [107] has shown, however, that a
consideration of internal correlation does not eliminate the trends completely. The fact is paradoxical: an
increase of the global average SAT during the last 20-30 years is the principal basis for the conclusion
concerning the anthropogenic contribution to the present-day climate changes.
2.1. Air temperature.
According to SAT observations discussed in [55], during the period from 1860 till the present
time its annual and global averages increased by 0.6o±0.2oC. It is approximately by 0.15oC higher than the
value given in the IPCC-1996 report, which was explained by a high SAT level between 1995 and 2000.
The observed data revealed a strong spatial-temporal variability of the mean annual SAT on the globe.
This manifested itself, for instance, in that the climate warming in the 20 th century took place during two
time periods: 1919-1945 and from 1976 until now. It follows from the global climate diagnostics that the
warming in the Northern Hemisphere in the 20th century was, apparently, the strongest for the last 1000
years, the 1990s being the warmest decade, and the year 1998 – the warmest year. An important feature of
the climate dynamics consisted in that, on the average, the rate of increase of nocturnal (minimum) SAT
values on land was almost twice as high compared to that of diurnal (maximum) SAT values, starting
from 1950 (0.2oC against 0.1oC/10 years). This favoured an increase of duration of the frost-free period in
many regions of moderate and high latitudes.
The IPCC-2001 Report [55] does not mention the earlier supposed enhanced increase of climate
warming in the NH high latitudes as a characteristic indicator of the anthropogenic global warming.
However, an analysis of direct SAT measurements at the “North Pole” stations during 30 years [1] as well
as of dendroclimatic indirect data for the last 2-3 centuries shows that there had been no homogeneous
enhancement of the warming. Climate changes during the last century and the last decade were
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characterized by a strong spatial-temporal heterogeneity: in the Arctic the regions of both warming and
cooling of climate were formed simultaneously (see also [103]).
From the data of satellite observations (beginning from 1979), the trend of global average
temperature of the lower troposphere (0-8 km) constituted +0.07oC/10 years. According to the data of
aerological soundings there was an increase of the global average temperature of the lower troposphere by
about 0.03oC/10 years, being much below the SAT increase (~0.15oC/10 years) [137]. This difference in
the warming manifests itself mainly in the regions of the oceans in the tropics and sub-tropics, and it is
not clear why it is so [25]. The results of the numerical climate modelling show that the global warming
should be stronger in the free troposphere than near the surface.
The difference of temperature trends near the surface and in the troposphere has caused a hot
discussion in scientific literature [25, 137]. Since the reliability of the satellite remote sounding data raises
no doubts, and their spatial representativeness (on global scales) is more reliable than that of the data of
surface measurements, this difference should be interpreted as necessitating further analysis of the SAT
and SST data adequacy.
Data on changes of the tropopause height have recently attracted rapt attention [47, 109, 115]. As
Santer et al. [115] noted, starting from 1979, the height of the tropopause increased by several hundred
meters, agreeing with the results of numerical climate modelling, taking into account the growth of
GHGs concentrations, whose contribution prevails (again, an “enigmatic” agreement of the observed and
calculated data has been manifested).
Studies of the dynamics of the tropical tropopause layer are of great interest in the context of
quantitative estimates of climate change and understanding of mechanisms for the tropospherestratosphere interaction. These circumstances have stimulated recent serious attention to studies of the
climatic structure and variability of the tropical tropopause as well as mechanisms responsible for the
formation of this structure. Serious attention has also been paid to analysis of data on the content of water
vapour in the stratosphere and mechanisms for the formation of thin cirrus clouds in the tropics.
Randel et al. [109] undertook studies of the structure and variability of the temperature field in the
upper troposphere and lower stratosphere of the tropics (at altitudes about 10-30 km) from the data of
radio-occultation observations for the period from April 1995 till February 1997 using the satellite system
designed for geodesic measurements (GPS). A comparison with a large number (several hundreds) of
synchronous aerological soundings has shown that a retrieval of the vertical temperature profiles from
GPS/MET data provides reliable information.
Analysis of the obtained results suggested the conclusion that the spatial structure and variability
of the tropopause altitude determined by a “cool point” (minimum temperature) of the vertical
temperature profile are governed mainly by wavelike fluctuations like Kelvin waves. A strong correlation
was observed between temperature from GPS/MET data and outgoing longwave radiation, which can
serve as an indirect indicator of penetrating convection in the tropics. This correlation confirms a reality
of temperature fluctuation revealed from GPS/MET data. The use of such a correlation opens up
possibilities of the quantitative assessments of the response of large-scale temperature field in the tropics
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to time-varying conditions of convection revealing coherent wavelike variations at altitudes about 12-18
km, which cover the hemisphere along the equator. Analysis of GPS/MET data revealed also the presence
in the stratosphere of quasi-biennial scillations (QBO) in the temperature field at altitudes about 16-40
km.
2.2. Snow and ice cover extent.
Starting from the end of the 1960s, a 10% decrease of the snow cover extent has been observed as
well as a two-week reduction of the annual duration of the lakes and rivers ice cover in the NH middle
and high latitudes, while in the non-polar regions the mountain glaciers retreated. In 2002 the NH snow
cover extent constituted 25.4 mln km2, on the average by 0.2 mln km2 less than during the preceding 30
years. The annual trend changed from 2.7 (August) to 46.9 (January) mln km2 [125].
Starting from the 1950s, the NH ice cover extent in spring and in summer has been decreasing by
10-15%. Probably, during the last decades (in the periods “late summer – early fall”) the Arctic sea ice
cover thickness decreased by about 40%, but in winter a decrease was less substantial. During regular
satellite observations (starting from the 1970s) there was no marked trend of the ice cover extent in the
Antarctic.
Numerical modelling based on the use of the global climate models has shown (considering the
growing concentration of GHGs and aerosols) that in the Arctic the climate warming should increase due
to a feedback determined by melting of the sea ice and snow cover, which causes a decrease of surface
albedo. On the other hand, it follows from the observed data that during the last decades the SAT has
increased over most of the Arctic. One of the regions where a warming took place is northern Alaska
(especially in winter and in spring). In this connection, Stone et al. [125] performed an analysis of data on
climate changes in the north of Alaska to reveal their impact on the annual trend of the snow cover extent
(SCE) and the impact of SCE changes on the surface radiation budget (SRB) and SAT.
2.3. Sea surface level and the ocean upper layer heat content.
During the 20th century the World Ocean surface level rose by 0.1-0.2 m. Apparently this was
caused by the thermal expansion of sea waters and ice melting on land due to the global warming. The
rate of the World Ocean level rise in the 20th century exceeded 10 times that observed during the last 3000
years. Beginning from the end of the 1950s (when SST changes became of mass character), the heat
content of the ocean upper layer has been increasing.
Levitus et al. [87] analyzed data on the warming of some components of the climatic system
during the second half of the 20th century. These data were derived from the growth of the heat content of
the atmosphere and ocean as well as from estimates of the heat losses on melting of some components of
the cryosphere. The results under discussion have led to the conclusion that the heat content of the
atmosphere and ocean is growing. The growth of the heat content in the 3-km ocean layer between 1950
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and 1990 exceeded, at least, by an order of magnitude the increase of the heat content in other
components of the climate system. If the observed increase of the ocean heat content between 1955 and
1996 reached 18.2x1022 Joule, then in the case of the atmosphere it constituted only 6.6x1021 Joule. As for
the values of latent heat due to water phase transformations, they were: 8.1x10 21 Joule (a decrease of the
mass of glaciers on land); 3.2x1021 Joule (a decrease of the sea ice cover extent in the Antarctic); 1.1x1021
Joule (melting of mountain glaciers); 4.6x1019 Joule (a decrease of the snow cover extent in the Northern
Hemisphere); 2.4x1019 Joule (melting of permafrost in the Arctic).
The observed data were compared [87] with results of numerical modelling using the GFDL
interactive model of the “atmosphere-ocean” system: 1) taking into account the radiative forcings
determined by the observed growth of GHGs concentrations, changes of the content of sulphate aerosol in
the atmosphere and extra-atmospheric insolation as well as volcanic aerosol; 2) taking into account only
GHGs and sulphate aerosol. The results of comparisons have led to the conclusion that the observed
changes of the ocean heat content can be explained, mainly, by the growth of GHGs concentrations in the
atmosphere, though one should bear in mind a substantial uncertainty of the estimate of RF due to
sulphate aerosol and volcanic eruptions. The latter reduces the reliability of [87] with respect to
recognition of the anthropogenic warming.
Cai et al. [23] drew attention to the fact that in the future the ocean can considerably affect the
global-scale precipitation. Developments in the field of these difficult problems based on the use of both
observed data and results of numerical modelling have led to quite different conclusions. The climate
warming of the last decades was characterized by the spatial structure similar to that of the El Niño /
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. But since there are no data on such a structure for the whole century,
the observed structure of warming is assumed to be a manifestation of the multi-decadal natural
variability of climate, but not the result of the greenhouse forcing.
Moritz et al. [103] revealed a substantial inadequacy of climate models as applied to the Arctic
conditions. In most cases the calculated AO trends turned out to be weaker compared to the observed
ones. The calculated climate warming is greater in the fall over the Arctic ocean, whereas the observed
warming is at a maximum in winter and in spring over the continents.
2.3. Other climatic parameters.
Data on ground surface temperature (GST) are important for climate diagnostics. As Majorovicz
et al. [92] noted, an analysis of the GST data obtained in different regions of Canada by measuring the
ground temperature in bore-holes revealed considerable spatial differences both in GST increase observed
in the 20th century and in the time of the onset of the warming. So, for instance, from measurements in 21
bore-holes covering the period about 1000 years a warming was detected (within 1-3oC) taking place
during the last 200 years. The warming was preceded by a long cooling trend in the region 80 o – 96oW,
46o – 50oN, which continued till the beginning of the 19th century. According to data for ten bore-holes in
12
central Canada, the temperature had reached a minimum about the year 1820 with a subsequent warming
by about 1.5oC. In western Canada, during the last 100 years the warming reached 2oC.
An analysis has been made [92] of more adequate information on GST from data of
measurements in 141 bore-holes at a depth of several hundred metres. The holes were drilled in 19701990. The results obtained revealed an intensive warming that started in the 18-19th centuries, which
followed a long period of cooling (especially during the Little Ice Age) continuing during the rest of the
millennium. The time of the onset of the present warming differs among the regions. An analysis of the
spatial distribution of the GST changes over the territory of Canada revealed a substantial delay of the
onset of the present warming in the east-to-west direction, with a higher level of the GST increase in the
20th century in western Canada. This conclusion is confirmed by the data of SAT observations. It should
be borne in mind that the GST increase in eastern Canada had begun about 100 years before the industrial
era.
Characteristics of the atmospheric general circulation are important components of climate
diagnostics. As Wallace and Thompson [135] noted, the west-eastern zonal wind component averaged
over the 55oN latitudinal belt can be a representative indicator of the primary mode of the surface air
pressure anomalies – the annual mode of the Northern Hemisphere (NAM). Both NAM and a similar
index SAM for the Southern Hemisphere are typical signatures of symbiotic relationships between the
meridional profiles of the west-eastern transport in the respective hemisphere and wave disturbances
superimposed on this transport. Their index determined (using a respective normalization) as a coefficient
for the first term of NAM expansion in empirical orthogonal functions can serve as the quantitative
characteristic of the modes. The presence of the positive NAM (or SAM) index denoted the existence of a
relatively strong west-eastern transport.
During the last years, it was recognized that dynamic factors contribute much to the observed
temperature trends. For instance, in 1995 a marked similarity was observed between the spatial
distributions of the SAT field and NAM fluctuations for the last 30 years, with a clear increase of the
NAM index. The increasing trend of the index was accompanied by mild winters, changes of the spatial
distribution of precipitation in Europe, PNJ increase, and the ozone layer depletion in the latitudinal belt
>40oN. Similar data are available for the Southern Hemisphere. The main conclusion is that along with
the ENSO event, both NAM and SAM are the leading factors of the global atmosphere variability. In this
connection, attention should be focused on the problem of the 30-year trend of NAM towards an IM
increase, the more so that after 1995 the index lowered. It is still not clear whether this trend is a part of
long-term oscillations.
The observation data show that during the 20th century an increase of precipitation constituted
0.5-1%/10 years over most of land surface in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere,
but a decrease (by about 0.3%/10 years) took place over most of land surface in sub-tropical latitudes,
which has recently weakened, however. As for the World Ocean, the lack of adequate observation data
has not permitted to reveal any reliable trends of precipitation. Probably, during the last decades,
intensive and extreme precipitation in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere has
13
become more frequent. Beginning from the mid-1970s, the ENSO events have been frequent, stable and
intensive. This ENSO dynamics was reflected in specific regional variations of precipitation and SAT in
most of the zones of the tropics and sub-tropics. Data on the intensity and frequency of occurrence of the
tropical and extra-tropical cyclones as well as local storms still remain fragmentary and inadequate and do
not permit to draw conclusions on any trends.
Changes in the biosphere are important indicators of climate. One of them is the bleeching of
corals. It is important that enhanced atmospheric forcings on coral reefs lead to not their disappearance
but to their transformation into species more resistant to external forcings [50]. Changes of sea water
properties are one more indicator [22].
2.5. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosol in the atmosphere.
From 1750 till now the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased by about one third
reaching the highest level for the last 420 thousand years (and, probably, during the last 20 million years),
which is illustrated by the data of ice cores [55]. The growth of CO2 concentration by about two thirds
during the last 20 years is explained by emissions to the atmosphere due to fossil fuel burning
(contributions of deforestation and, to a lesser extent, cement industry constitute one third). It is of
interest that by the end of 1999, CO2 emissions in the USA exceeded the 1990 level by 12%, and by 2008
their further increase should raise this value by 10% more [134]. Meanwhile, according to the Kyoto
Protocol, emissions should be reduced by 7% by the year 2008 with respect to the level of 1990, which
requires their total reduction by about 25% (of course, it is utterly unfeasible).
According to available observation data, now both the World Ocean and land are global sinks for
CO2. In the ocean, both chemical and biological processes are responsible for it, whereas on land it is
connected with an enhanced “fertilization” of vegetation due to increased concentrations of CO2 and
nitrogen, as well as with changes of land use. Still there is much unclear in the problem of global carbon
cycle [120-122, 134]. In particular, contradictions in the estimates of the role of the biosphere and ocean
in the formation of global carbon cycle remain unsolved [40, 83].
There is no doubt that fossil fuel burning will remain the main factor of the CO 2 concentration
growth in the 21st century. The role of the biosphere (both the ocean and land) as a barrier to the growth
of CO2 concentration will be reduced in time. According to the IPCC-2001 Report, the probable interval
of CO2 concentration values by the end of the century will constitute 540-970 ppm (pre-industrial and
present values are, respectively, 280 ppm and 367 ppm). Changes of land use [54] are an important factor
of the global carbon cycle, but even all carbon emitted to the atmosphere due to land use will be
assimilated by the land biosphere. This will only lead to a decrease of CO2 concentration within 40-70
ppm. As for prognostic estimates of other GHGs concentrations by the year 2100, they vary widely. So,
for instance, it follows from some estimates that the role of CO as a GHG can become equal to the
contribution of methane and be also important as a factor of air quality reduction over most of the
Northern Hemisphere.
14
The concentration of methane in the atmosphere increased by a factor of 2.5, compared with that
observed in 1750, and continues to grow. The annual rate of CH4 increase was reduced, however, and
became more variable in the 1990s compared with the 1980s. Beginning from 1750, nitrous oxide
concentration has increased by 16%. After an accomplishment of recommendations of the Montreal
Protocol and subsequent supplements to it, concentrations of several halocarbon compounds functioning
as greenhouse gases and ozone-destructing gases either increased more slowly or started decreasing.
However, on the other hand, concentrations of their substitutes and some other synthetic compounds
started growing rapidly (e.g., perfluorocarbons, PFC, and sulphur hexafluoride, SF6).
As for the properties of atmospheric aerosol and its climatic impact, the respective present
information has been reviewed in detail in [66, 73-74, 76, 81-82].
Note in this connection that the supposed anthropogenic nature of the present global climate
warming was explained, on the one hand, by the warming caused by the GHGs concentrations growth
(first of all, CO2 and CH4) and on the other hand, by cooling due to anthropogenic aerosols. However, if
the estimates of the “greenhouse” warming can be considered as sufficiently reliable, then the respective
calculations of radiative forcing (RF) with regard to aerosol are very uncertain. Of no less importance is
the fact that if the global distribution of the “greenhouse” RF is comparatively uniform, in the case of the
“aerosol” RF it is characterized by a strong spatial-temporal variability (including changes of the sign of
RF).
2.6. Paleoclimatic information.
Paleoclimatic information is an important source of data for comparative analysis of the present
and paleo-climate. Analysis of the data of paleoclimatic observations reveals large-scale abrupt climate
changes taking place in the past in conditions when the climate system had exceeded certain threshold
levels. Though some mechanisms for such changes have been substantiated and the existing methods of
numerical climate modelling are being gradually improved, still the existing models do not permit a
reliable reconstruction of climate changes in the past. With emphasis on climatic implications of the
growth of GHGs concentrations in the atmosphere, less effort has been made to study possible sudden
climate changes of natural origin intensified by anthropogenic forcings.
Since such changes lie beyond the problems contained in the Framework Convention on Climate
Change, Alley et al. [5] undertook a conceptual substantiation of the problem of large-scale abrupt
climate changes. Though the available long-term stabilizing feedbacks had determined the existence on
the Earth of comparatively persistent global climate for about 4 billion years, with characteristic time
scales from one year to one million years, feedbacks prevailing in the climate system had favoured an
enhancement of forcings on climate. So, for instance, changes of global average SAT within 5 o-6oC
during the glaciation cycles had apparently resulted from very weak forcings due to variations of the
orbital parameters ( Bolshakov [19] has substantiated a new view on this problem).
15
Still more surprising is the fact that during several decades (in the absence of external forcings),
regional changes have taken place, which reached 30-50%, compared with changes that had taken place
in the epochs of glaciations. Data for the period of instrumental observations revealed abrupt climate
changes, quite often accompanied by serious socio-economic consequences. So, for instance, the warming
in many northern regions in the 20th century took place in two rapid “steps”, which enables one to
suppose that in this case there was a superposition of the anthropogenic trend and inter-annual natural
variability. Special attention was paid to the role of the ENSO event. The latter also refers to a sharp
change of the climate system in the Pacific region in 1976-1977.
Considerable abrupt changes of regional climate in the period of Paleocene were detected from
paleoclimatic reconstructions. They had been manifested as changes of the frequency of occurrence of
hurricanes, floods, and especially droughts. Regional SAT changes reaching 8-16oC had happened in the
periods of 10 years and shorter. Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) oscillations can serve as an example of largescale sudden changes. Zachos et al. [144] have shown, for instance, that during the Paleocene-Eocene
thermal maximum (PETM) observed about 55 million years ago, the Pacific Ocean surface temperature
increased by 4-5oC.
The climatic system involves numerous factors that intensify the climate changes with minimum
forcings. So, for instance, withering or death of plants causes a decrease of evapotranspiration and, hence,
precipitation attenuation, which promotes further increase of drought. In the cold-climate regions the
snow cover formation is accompanied by a strong increase of albedo, which favours further cooling (the
so-called “albedo effect”). Substantial climatic feedbacks are associated with the dynamics of the
thermohaline circulation.
While the factors of enhancement of either changes or stability of climate are comparatively well
known, quite different is the case of understanding the factors of the spatial distribution of anomalies over
large regions, including the globe. In this connection, of importance are further studies of various modes
of the general circulation of the atmosphere and the ocean (ENSO, DO oscillations, etc.) and respective
improvement of the general circulation models [131]. The most important aspect of problems is potential
effects of abrupt climate changes on ecology and economy since such estimates were based, as a rule, on
a consideration of slow and gradual changes.
Abrupt climate changes were especially substantial in the periods of the transition of climate from
one state into another. Therefore if anthropogenic forcings on climate can favour the drifting of the
climate system towards a threshold level, it means a possibility to raise the probability of abrupt climate
changes. Of great importance are not only the amount but also the rate of anthropogenic forcings on the
climate system. So, for instance, a faster climate warming should favour a stronger attenuation of
thermohaline circulation, which promotes an acceleration of shifting to the threshold of climate changes
(it is important that in these conditions the thermohaline circulation dynamics becomes less predictable).
To accept adequate solutions in the field of ecological policy, a deeper understanding of the whole
spectrum of possible sudden climate changes is extremely important. Difficulties in identification and
quantitative estimation of all possible causes of sudden climate changes, low predictability near threshold
16
levels testifies to the fact that the problem of abrupt climate changes will be always aggravated with more
serious uncertainties than the problem of slow changes. In these conditions of great importance is the
development of the ways to provide the stability and high adaptability of economy and ecosystems.
3.
RESULTS OF NUMERICAL CLIMATE MODELLING AND THEIR RELIABILITY.
The problem of numerical climate modelling has been thoroughly analyzed in numerous
publications (Soon et al. [122] have recently published a critical review). Therefore we will confine
ourselves to only brief comments. Considerable progress has been made in developments of more
adequate numerical climate models with the main components of the “atmosphere – hydrosphere –
lithosphere – cryosphere – biosphere” climate system taken into interactive account. Baffling complexity
of climate models and a lot of the schemes of empirical parameterization of various (especially sub-grid)
processes used in them hinders an analysis of the models’ adequacy, especially from the viewpoint of
their application to predict future climate. Therefore attempts undertaken so far to compare the results of
numerical climate modelling with the observation data have been rather schematic, controversial and
unconvincing. The problem of the climate models’ verification remains extremely urgent.
For instance, the conclusions with respect to the secular trend of annual average global average
SAT for the last one and a half century are unconvincing. If, according to the IPCC-1996 Report, there is
a good agreement between the observed and calculated trends of SAT (with the growth of CO 2
concentration taken into account), then, following [45], a consideration of methane and carbon aerosol
should be more important. Unfortunately, in both these cases the conclusions are based on arbitrary
opinions, and an agreement with observations is, in fact, not more than an adjustment. Besides, it is clear
that a serious comparison of theory with observations should include a consideration of regional climate
changes (not only SAT) and not only average values of climatic parameters but also their variability
characterized by moments of a higher order.
Unfortunately, the authors of numerous studies in the field of numerical climate modelling were
not correct in statements concerning an agreement between the results of calculations and observations.
Much more productive is an analysis of differences and their causes. In contrast to other similar
developments, Schneider et al. [116] stated, for instance, the absence of any agreement with observations
in the ensemble numerical modelling of trends at altitudes 50 hPa level in the region of the North
Atlantic.
According to numerous results of numerical modelling, climate changes in the Arctic can be a
most sensitive (and advanced) indicator of anthropogenically induced global climate changes. This
follows from the fact, in particular, that from calculations, a considerable increase of SAT took place in
the Arctic under the influence of the growing concentration of GHGs. As Intrieri et al. [53] noted, despite
these conclusions, a situation is preserved which is characterized by that: 1) there are considerable
17
differences between the data for different climate models; 2) the actual information about climate changes
in the Arctic is inadequate.
In this context, of special importance are studies of the impact of the cloud cover dynamics and
changes of the surface properties on the formation of the high-latitude climate, especially from the
viewpoint of cloud-radiation interaction and respective feedbacks functioning. In this connection, results
have been discussed [53] of calculations of surface heat balance components and radiative forcing (RF)
due to cloud cover dynamics from data of the field observations experiment SHEBA accomplished from
November 1997 to October 1998 in the region of the Beaufort and Chuckchee Seas and the Arctic Ocean.
The observation program included, in particular, measurements of short- and longwave radiation fluxes,
turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture at different altitudes (fluctuative direct measurements from the
masts) and meteorological parameters (cloud cover observations and lidar sounding, air temperature and
humidity from the data of radiosondes).
To interpret the obtained results of measurements, calculations were made of clear-sky radiation
fluxes, bearing in mind the use of results of these measurements to determine the cloud-induced RF at the
surface level. Analysis of the observation results has shown that during most of the year, clouds favour
the warming in the presence of a short period of cooling in mid-summeer. Average annual RF values
constitute: -10 W/m2 (shortwave radiation), 38 W/m2 (longwave radiation) and -6 W/m2 (turbulent heat
exchange). Total RF values are approximately 30 W/m2 in the fall, winter and spring, but decrease down
to a minimum of -4 W/m2 in early July. These results convincingly illustrate the insignificance of even
supposed, in case of CO2 doubling, enhancement of the atmospheric greenhouse effect constituting about
2.5 W/m2.
”Achilles’ heel” of climate models is a parameterization of the biospheric dynamics [40, 63, 83,
114, 146]. In this connection, numerous numerical experiments have been undertaken to assess the effect
of deforestation in the Amazon basin, which have led to the conclusion that in case of complete
deforestation of this region (a change of tropical rain forests for grass cover), both evaporation from the
Earth’s surface and precipitation should decrease, but surface temperature will rise. The resulting increase
of SAT will vary between 0.3o and 3oC. Such changes are determined mainly by an increase of surface
albedo and a decrease of soil moisture. The associated decrease of energy and water vapour fluxes to the
atmosphere, reduction of moist convection and release of latent heat will result in reduction of the
atmospheric heating, which will produce the following changes of atmospheric circulation: 1) changes of
the upward and downward air fluxes in the tropics and sub-tropics (Hadley circulation cells); 2) changes
of conditions of the planetary waves generation (Rossby waves) propagating from the tropics to middle
latitudes. Studies by Tsonis et al. [131] convincingly illustrated the key role of the atmosphere-ocean
interaction.
Conclusions with respect to the observed and, the more so, potential climate changes in future are
very uncertain. This refers both to the data of diagnostics of the present climate dynamics and to the
numerical modelling results. According to IPCC-2001 [55], developments in the following eight
directions should be considered to be of first priority:
18
-
to stop further degradation of the network of conventional meteorological observations;
-
to continue studies in the field of the global climate diagnostics to obtain long-term series of
observation data with a higher spatial-temporal resolution;
-
to more adequately understand the interaction between the ocean climate system components
(including its deep layers) and the atmosphere;
-
to more realistically understand the laws of long-term variability of climate;
-
to broaden an application of an ensemble approach to climate modelling in the context of
assessments of probabilities;
-
to develop a totality (“hierarchy”) of global and regional models with emphasis on the numerical
modelling of regional impacts and extreme changes;
-
to develop interactive physico-biological climate models and models of the socio-economic
development in order to analyze the relationship of the dynamics of the environment and society.
It should be added that to understand the laws of the present climate and climate prediction, of
importance are studies of paleoclimate, especially of its sudden short-term changes.
An intensive development of the space-borne remote sounding has not provided adequate global
information about the diagnostics of the climate system, since the functioning of the existing system of
space-borne and conventional observations is far from being optimal.
CONCLUSION
It is extremely difficult to understand the laws of the present climate system and the more so to
assess potential climate changes in the future. This is confirmed by lack of reliable estimates of the
contribution of anthropogenic factors into the formation of the present climate with understanding that,
for instance, the anthropogenically induced enhancement of the atmospheric greenhouse effect (due to the
growth of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere) should cause certain changes of global climate. In this
connection a primitive understanding of the global warming as a general increase of temperature, growing
with latitude, is rather dangerous. An analysis of the observed data obtained in high latitudes of the
Northern Hemisphere [1] has shown that such judgements do not correspond to reality.
To assess the reality of climate predictions, it is critically important to test an adequacy of models
from the viewpoint of simulating the present observed changes and paleodynamics of climate (from proxy
data). As for the use of the present observation data, the situation is rather paradoxical: an experience in
testing the adequacy is confined to the use of average temperatures while it is necessary to use different
information and moments of a higher order. Goody [39] drew attention to the prospects of using the
space-borne observations of the spectral distribution of the outgoing longwave radiation. Unfortunately,
the problem of an adequate planning of the climate observing system has not been recognized, as it
should be [60, 64-65]. The present paradoxical situation is characterized by that a huge amount of poorly
19
systematized satellite observations is combined with the degradation of conventional (in-situ)
observations mentioned above.
It is very difficult to test an adequacy of global climate models by comparing the results of
numerical modelling with the observation data. Most often, this problem is solved by comparing a long
data series on the annual-average global-average SAT. The main conclusion, despite the substantial
(sometimes radical) differences in consideration of the climate-forming processes, was practically always
the same: on the whole, results of calculations agree with the observation data. Another characteristic
feature of such developments is the conclusion about considerable (or even dominating) climate-forming
contribution of anthropogenic factors and first of all, the greenhouse effect (without necessary
quantitative substantiation). Of course, such an approach to a verification of the models should not be
taken seriously, since: 1) the present climate models are still very imperfect from the viewpoint of an
interactive account of biospheric processes, aerosol – clouds – radiation interaction, and many other
factors; 2) the only long-term (100-150 years) series of SAT observations is far from being adequate,
from the viewpoint of calculations of the annual average global average SAT values.
Beven [12] discussed the conceptual aspects of the numerical modelling of the environment
connected with analysis of possibilities of simulation modelling from the viewpoint of realistic
simulation of natural processes. At present the computer modelling is being widely developed and is
actively used as an instrument of theoretical studies of the environment as well as to solve various
practical problems and to substantiate recommendations for decision makers. In this connection, of
special interest are predictions of potential impacts of global climate changes and of the functioning of the
systems of the use of ground waters, as well as long-term geomorphological predictions and assessments
of the impacts of underground repositories of radioactive emissions. In all these cases it is supposed that
the enumerated problems can be solved despite non-linearity and open nature of the considered natural
systems as well as various assumptions that serve as a basis for numerical modelling.
Of course, such an assumption is rather naïve, since from the methodical (“philosophic”) and
scientific points of view, it proceeds from presumption that the considered systems have been sufficiently
studied. Clearly, many natural systems are so complicated that the existing ideas of them are far from
being adequate. It always happens that real natural systems are much more complicated compared to their
analogues described by numerical models. One of the most vivid examples is the numerical climate
modelling connected with the use of a sub-grid parameterization of many climate-forming processes (on
land surface, in the atmosphere, etc.), which entails not only sometimes far from real schemes of the
processes considered, but also a necessity to introduce a great number of insufficiently reliably
determined empirical parameters.
Quite special are problems of the adequacy of boundary and other conditions. For instance, in
hydrology the principle of conservation of mass is important. However, it is impossible to meet this
principle for a certain watershed basin in view of insufficient reliability of the observation data. Due to
considerably arbitrary input parameters of the models, it is possible to obtain acceptable results of
numerical modelling with the use of various models, which can be called “equi-final” models.
20
Behavioural models that describe the evolution of the processes should be chosen as more reliable
solutions. This approach was realized within the widely used CLUE methodology of assessment of the
uncertainty of a generalized similarity. These and other considerations enable one to formulate the
following principles:
1. A formalized model of the environment can always be only an approximate reflection of reality.
2. It is important to take into account the spatial heterogeneity of local conditions when formulating
the boundary conditions.
3. There is a possibility to obtain “equi-final” results.
4. The priority of the behavioural models raises no doubts; estimates of prognostic uncertainties are
very important for them.
5. Adequate observation data are critically important for analysis of limitations that characterize the
behavioural models.
Of course, recent developments under programmes GCOS, GOOS, GTOS, IGOS are useful, but
they still do not contain adequate grounds for an optimal global observing system (this problem has been
discussed in detail in the monographs [64-65] and quite recently in the work [39]). The main cause of
such a situation is an imperfection of climate models, which should serve as the conceptual basis in
planning the observations, which are to be specified as the models are being improved. In this connection,
it should be emphasized that not illusory statements about sufficient adequacy of the global climate
models are needed but an analysis of differences (in comparison with observations) that would reveal
“weak points” of the models. It is clear that a totality of climate parameters should be considered (and not
only SAT), with emphasis on the models’ capability to simulate climate changes (including, at least,
moments of the second order).
As has been mentioned above, paleodata reveal the strongest and sometimes very fast climate
changes in the geological past. Alverson et al. [6] noted, for instance, that changes of the ocean’s level
had exceeded 100 m at a stable rate of changes more that 1 m per 1000 years. Such changes are much
greater than the anthropogenic changes due to doubling CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, which
reflects groundless misgivings with regard to anthropogenic climate forcings. The problem is more a
necessity to analyze the sensitivity of the present society and its infrastructures to potential climate
changes than to provide a detailed future climate predictions (it should be borne in mind that for many
countries, including the USA and Russia (see [21, 57]), the predicted warming is rather a benefit than a
danger). In this connection, the value of paleodata as a climate predictor can be higher than that of
conditional scenarios obtained on the basis of numerical modeling.
As for climate predictions and KP recommendations to reduce the GHG emissions to the
atmosphere, it is clear that the climate predictions cannot be interpreted otherwise than as conditional
scenarios, and KP recommendations, respectively, should be considered as unrealistic. Thus there is an
urgent need to undertake a revision of the FCCC in the nearest future and to reject the ungrounded,
unrealistic and dangerous for the socio-economic development recommendations contained in the Kyoto
Protocol [134]. The complete failure of the Sixth Conference of the representatives of the signatory
21
countries to the FCCC held in the Hague in November 2000 (COP-6) and of the subsequent meeting in
Bonn testifies to futility of these expensive conferences and to a need for serious scientific discussions on
the problem of global climate changes free from domination of adherents of the global warming concept.
Results of the Ninth Conference (COP-9) held in December 2003 in Milan confirmed once more the
validity of this conclusion. About 4000 delegates from 188 countries (with the participation of more than
70 Ministers of the Environment) have demonstrated, again, an extremely expensive effort making no
headway. Reality is that GHGs emissions to the atmosphere are still growing (and this process will
continue) and a discussion on the importance of “flexible market mechanisms” (“emission trading”, etc.)
totally belong to the sphere of rhetoric.
Soros [123] reminded that at present the CO2 emissions in the USA constitute about 16%
compared to the 1990 level, in the countries of the European Unit (on the average) – 6%, in Japan – about
5%, in Australia – about 24%. Thus the 1990s were the period of not stabilization but increase of the level
of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Besides, there are no indications that any serious efforts are being
made to reduce emissions (a decrease of CO2 emissions observed in Germany and Great Britain has
nothing to do with KP recommendations). Soros [123] has justly pointed out the loss of confidence in KP
and apparent absence of the prospects for its final ratification.
Preparations of a strategic plan of the Climate Change Science Programme (CCSP) planned for
10 years were started in the USA in July 2002 and completed in 2003. The programme has five main
goals [126, 128]:
1. To get a deeper knowledge of the past and present climates and the environment, including
natural variability as well as to improve an understanding of the causes of the observed climatic
variability.
2. To obtain more reliable quantitative estimates of the factors determining the Earth’s climate
changes and changes of related systems.
3. To reduce the levels of uncertainties of the prognostic assessments of future changes of climate
and related systems.
4. To better understand the sensitivity and adjustability of natural and regulated ecosystems as well
as anthropogenic systems to climate and to global changes in general.
5. To analyze possibilities to use and recognize the limits of understanding how to control the risk in
the context of climate changes.
The CCSP indicates concrete ways how to reach these goals. In this connection, it was pointed
out that the priorities of perspective developments should include a decrease of the levels of uncertainties
in the problems such as: properties of aerosol and its climatic implications; climatic feedbacks and
sensitivity (first of all, for polar regions); carbon cycle. Of key priorities in the CCSP will be also
developments concerning the climate observing systems (it was very important to organize an Ad hoc
Group on Earth observations – GEO) and further development of the numerical climate modelling (first
of all, for a more adequate consideration of “physics and chemistry” of climate).
22
Kukla [86] justly noted, however, serios omissions in the CCSP programme, which concern the
following three important problems: 1) relationship between contributions of natural and anthropogenic
climate changes; 2) the level of understanding the nature of present climate changes; 3) possibility to
affect the global warming dynamics.
As Toth [130] justly noted, “… we should not be mistaken about the statement that the world
without fossil fuels would be a paradise. Though the renewable sources of energy look attractive on small
scales, but large-scale perspectives are not clear. For instance, now the limits of hydro-energy and limited
possibilities of wind-energy are clear”. All this reflects the truth that it is necessary to find ways of
civilization development and to substantiate an adequate ecological policy in the context of the dynamics
of the interactive system
“society – nature” [78, 83]. The solution of this problem will require
unprecedented cooperative efforts of the experts in the fields of nature science and social sciences.
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