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Transgressive adaptation for climate change – what may it take? Coleen Vogel Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute University of the Witwatersrand VULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE IMPACTS CLIMATE Vulnerability SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES Socioeconomic Pathways Natural Variability Hazards RISK Anthropogenic Climate Change Exposure EMISSIONS and Land-use Change Adaptation and Mitigation Actions Governance 6 4 3 N.H. Temperature (°C) Adaptation Sustainability 1 2 1 0.5 0 -0.5 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 0 IPCC Projections 2100 AD Global Temperature (°C) Survival 5 Incremental and transformative adaptation • Incremental adaptation • Transformational adaptation • Transgressive change Example of what may be required? (source Winkler, 2007 Must peak and decline in 2-3 decades GHG emissions Tools exist to get to lowcarbon society Emissions growing Cost of action = small % of GDP, off-set by co-benefits Cost of inaction? t Incremental and transformational adaptation • Incremental = maintaining existing activities and building on existing technologies – reactive and proactive – local scale – maintain existing objectives • Transformational = major changes in enterprises, land use and human and social capital – mostly proactive and strategic – cross-scale – fundamentally re-assess objectives • Strong relation to scale – to maintain functioning at one scale (e.g. farm sector or coastal community) may require transformation at the next scale down (e.g. move farms or shoreline buildings) Mean Global Warming (°C) Managing the risk from diverging possible futures 6 Three scenarios for the future Runaway 5 4 Stabilisation 3 2 Recovery 1 0 1990 2010 2030 Incremental adaptation to changes of reasonable certainty possible Stafford Smith et al 2011, Phil.Trans.Roy.Soc. 369 2050 Year 2070 2090 Adaptation must increasingly manage the risk of divergent possible futures, and need for transformation MEP2030 A1FI-GaR MEP2010 (Overshoot) Transformational adaptation Transformation from landuse or distribution change Benefit from adaptation New products such as ecosystem services Climate change-ready crops Climate-sensitive precision-agric Diversification and risk management Varieties, planting times, spacing Stubble, water, nutrient and canopy management etc Climate change Howden et al, Greenhouse 2010, 2010 Cycles of incremental and transformative adaptation Park et al., GEC 2012 The ‘classic’ adaptation pathway concept Adaptive & maladaptive spaces Maladaptive space 3 Adaptive space 2 1 d 1 c 1 b a 3 3 2 2 f 1 2 g 2 2 h Decision points and alternative pathways 3 3 Maladaptive space Current decision point Wise et al., GEC forthcoming Dead-ends that can be re-assessed over time (or other indicators, e.g. SLR) e 1 Adaptive landscape, boundaries less certain further into the future The latest adaptation pathway concept B. Transformative cycles A. ‘Classic’ adaptation pathways C. Path dependency Maladaptive space 3 1 Adaptive space 1 3 1 d 1 c a 5 2 f 1 e 2 g 6 D. Institutional preparedness 2 h 7 2 j 8 8 i b Maladaptive space Wise et al., GEC forthcoming Change in biophysical variables over time Adaptive landscape, affected by changing climate but also other drivers and other actors’ responses Other possible interventions: Transgressive change Transformative change • Knowledge that is made of facts and content not enough! • Need to explore ‘interior’ views and ‘exterior’ views in knowledge production • Blindspots, values, how one comes to see something not just made up of ‘facts’! Integral approaches Twenty-five major dimensions of climate change (after Esbjorn-Hargens, 2010). Experiential Behavioral Values, beliefs, attitudes, mental models, frames Need to make climate change a tangible experience Need representations of climate change that engage multiple audiences Focus on positive messages Motivate using existing interior structures (translation) Motivate by facilitating interior development (transformation) Observe current behaviors • Carbon footprinting • Direct and indirect emissions Identify desired (target) behaviors • Potential to bring about desired change • Feasibility Behavior categories (e.g. environmental activism, non-activist public sphere, privatesphere environmentalism, other – Stern, 2000) Cultural Systemic Need validation from identity groups Supportive groups help individuals to initiate and maintain new behaviors (e.g. Eco Teams, Transition Towns, CRAGs) Social movements and activist cultures (e.g. Climate Action Groups, Climate Camps) Cultural change – symbols, media, discourse Supportive change agent cultures Cultural barriers – custom, myths Dialogue with participants Systems help or hinder target behaviors Hierarchy of preferential behaviors Diffusion of innovations – different strategies for early adopters vs mainstream Feedback systems to support learning Persuasive technology and choice architecture Information is important but not sufficient Financial incentives and penalties Supportive legal, political and social context Transdisciplinarity • Knowledge made up of scientific, social and experiential. • When seeking a solution to a problem ‘science alone may not be enough’ • Mode 1 and Mode 2 knowledge production key to distinguish. Transdisciplinarity: “a new form of learning and problem solving involving cooperation among different parts of society AND academia in order to meet complex challenges of society” (Julie Klein et al., 2001) Non-academic environment Discip line Monodisciplinary 21 8 DisciplDiscip Discipl ine line ine Multidisciplinary Discipl Discipl Discipl ine ine ine Interdisciplinary Discipl Discipl Discipl ine ine ine Transdisciplinary Faculteit der Aard- en Levenswetenschappen Climate Information and Planning 1. Knowledge about climate change science and climate variability. Climate Change research Policy & decisionmaking Fig 2: After Bradshaw and Borchers, 2000 2. Use of such knowledge the roles of scientists, policy makers, practitioners, civic society and ‘brokers’ in research, adaptation and planning. Climate Policy & Change decision research -making Climate Change research Climate Change research Policy & decision -making Policy & decisionmaking Fig 4: After Bradshaw and Borchers, 2000 Beliefs, values, well being • Climate change discussions often proceed from a plurality of viewpoints (different belief systems simultaneously held by different stakeholders) (O'Brien et al, 2010b). Belief systems therefore determine consensus/dis-sensus regarding our future in the changing climate. • Belief systems influence our perception of climate change and motivates our behavior towards nature. • Changes in belief systems can be linked to fundamental changes in the ways that we deal with climate change. • (Source: Dr Loubser). Current research on the relationship between beliefs and climate change: • • • • • • The Climate Beliefs project is part of the SANCOOP bilateral co-operation between South Africa and Norway, funded by the NRF and RCN. This project aims to find out how the causality between the impacts and drivers of climate change challenge belief systems, by studying the flexibility of environmental beliefs in rural communities in North West Province, South Africa. Dr. Ananka Loubser (NWU) and Prof. Karen O'Brien (UiO) mapped the beliefs by using semi-structured interviews and Q methodology. Flexibility was tested by introducing contradictory statements offering both indigenous and scientific explanations for climate change. Preliminary results show belief system plasticity: belief systems provide stable points of reference to make sense of the world, but at the same time they need to adapt to changes in the external environment, so that more flexible belief systems lead to more proactive responses to climate variability and change. These findings may lead to a flexibility indicator with implications for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Field work: Climate Beliefs project: Jouberton, NW Province, SA A participant in the study sorts community-derived belief statements in a Q sorting grid (likert scaling). The results are analyzed statistically (Q factor analysis) to determine the interrelationships between the beliefs. References: LOUBSER, A.; 2012. Changes in epistemic frameworks: random or constrained? Koers, 2012 77(2): Art #425. LOUBSER, R.A; 2013. Tracing some consensus regarding pre-scientific frameworks in philosophy of science. Acta Academica, 2013 45(2): 1-26. O’BRIEN, K; HOCHACHKA, G; 2010a. Integral adaptation to climate change. Journal of Integral Theory and Practice, 5(1): 89-102. O’BRIEN, K; WOLF, J; 2010b. A values-based approach to vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. ISSN 1757-7780. 1(2): 242-253. Well being – FLOW project (Ziervogel et al., UCT) • A transdisciplinary research and action project • Building a “Commons Transition” platform (Michel Bauwens - http://p2pfoundation.net) – – – – Youth development program – FLOW ambassadors Community currency Support municipal adaptation strategies A poverty and inequality reduction strategy Piketberg, Bergrivier municaplity, Western Cape Kokstad, Kwazulu Natal Build individual adaptive capacity ADAPTIVE AND GENERATIVE CAPACITY IS INCREASED IN LOCAL COMMUNITIES Awareness of and connection to life support systems is increased Selfdetermination and social cohesion is increased Build community adaptive capacity Localised economic exchange is increased FLOW integrated in municipal planning for 2015 - Youth development strategy - Local Economic Development strategy Adv. Hanlie Linde (Bergrivier Municipal Manager): “I have been doing social development for 20 years and I can tell you this is the first program I have seen that can really constitute wellbeing in a community” https://youtu.be/_yy59H8t3x4 Messy reality needing variety of engagement processes (courtesy J. Colvin) Recognising the ‘messiness’ and complexity of situations: Complexity of ecological – societal relationships Uncertainty about current state and predictions Controversy of knowledge claims Multiple stakeholders and stakeholdings Approaches • • • • • Social learning Focus on belief systems and human well being Transformative and incremental options ‘Active’ links to global efforts e.g. SDGs May require movements – e.g. food sovereignty, food security etc. including global efforts e.g. Future Earth. Acknowledgements • • • • Various inputs e.g. IPCC scientists Dr Mark Stafford Smith, CSIRO, Australia Dr Gina Ziervogel, CSAG, UCT Dr Ananka Loubser, University of Potchefstroom