Download Climate change and climate variability * implications for food

Transgressive adaptation for
climate change – what may it take?
Coleen Vogel
Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute
University of the Witwatersrand
VULNERABILITY
AND EXPOSURE
IMPACTS
CLIMATE
Vulnerability
SOCIOECONOMIC
PROCESSES
Socioeconomic
Pathways
Natural
Variability
Hazards
RISK
Anthropogenic
Climate Change
Exposure
EMISSIONS
and Land-use
Change
Adaptation and
Mitigation
Actions
Governance
6
4
3
N.H. Temperature (°C)
Adaptation Sustainability
1
2
1
0.5
0
-0.5
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
0
IPCC Projections
2100 AD
Global Temperature (°C)
Survival
5
Incremental and transformative
adaptation
• Incremental adaptation
• Transformational adaptation
• Transgressive change
Example of what may be required? (source Winkler, 2007
Must peak and decline in
2-3 decades
GHG
emissions
Tools exist to get to lowcarbon society
Emissions growing
Cost of action = small % of
GDP, off-set by co-benefits
Cost of inaction?
t
Incremental and transformational
adaptation
• Incremental = maintaining existing
activities and building on existing
technologies
– reactive and proactive
– local scale
– maintain existing objectives
• Transformational = major changes
in enterprises, land use and
human and social capital
– mostly proactive and strategic
– cross-scale
– fundamentally re-assess
objectives
• Strong relation to scale – to maintain functioning at one scale (e.g.
farm sector or coastal community) may require transformation at the
next scale down (e.g. move farms or shoreline buildings)
Mean Global Warming (°C)
Managing the risk from diverging possible
futures
6
Three scenarios for the future
Runaway
5
4
Stabilisation
3
2
Recovery
1
0
1990
2010
2030
Incremental
adaptation
to changes
of reasonable
certainty possible
Stafford Smith et al 2011, Phil.Trans.Roy.Soc. 369
2050
Year
2070
2090
Adaptation must
increasingly manage
the risk of divergent
possible futures, and
need for transformation
MEP2030
A1FI-GaR
MEP2010 (Overshoot)
Transformational adaptation
Transformation from landuse
or distribution change
Benefit from
adaptation
New products such as
ecosystem services
Climate change-ready crops
Climate-sensitive precision-agric
Diversification and risk management
Varieties, planting times, spacing
Stubble, water, nutrient and canopy
management etc
Climate change
Howden et al, Greenhouse 2010, 2010
Cycles of incremental and transformative
adaptation
Park et al., GEC 2012
The ‘classic’ adaptation pathway
concept
Adaptive & maladaptive spaces
Maladaptive space
3
Adaptive space
2
1 d
1 c
1 b
a
3
3
2
2
f
1
2 g
2
2 h
Decision points and
alternative pathways
3
3
Maladaptive space
Current
decision
point
Wise et al., GEC forthcoming
Dead-ends that can be
re-assessed over time (or
other indicators, e.g. SLR)
e
1
Adaptive
landscape,
boundaries
less certain
further into
the future
The latest adaptation pathway concept
B. Transformative cycles
A. ‘Classic’ adaptation pathways
C. Path
dependency
Maladaptive space
3
1
Adaptive space
1
3
1 d
1 c
a
5
2
f
1 e
2 g
6
D. Institutional
preparedness
2 h
7
2 j
8
8
i
b
Maladaptive space
Wise et al., GEC forthcoming
Change in biophysical variables over time
Adaptive
landscape,
affected by
changing
climate but
also other
drivers and
other actors’
responses
Other possible interventions:
Transgressive change
Transformative change
• Knowledge that is made of facts and content
not enough!
• Need to explore ‘interior’ views and ‘exterior’
views in knowledge production
• Blindspots, values, how one comes to see
something not just made up of ‘facts’!
Integral approaches Twenty-five major dimensions of climate change
(after Esbjorn-Hargens, 2010).
Experiential
Behavioral
 Values, beliefs, attitudes, mental models,
frames
 Need to make climate change a tangible
experience
 Need representations of climate change that
engage multiple audiences
 Focus on positive messages
 Motivate using existing interior structures
(translation)
 Motivate by facilitating interior development
(transformation)
 Observe current behaviors
• Carbon footprinting
• Direct and indirect emissions
 Identify desired (target) behaviors
• Potential to bring about desired change
• Feasibility
Behavior categories (e.g. environmental
activism, non-activist public sphere, privatesphere environmentalism, other – Stern, 2000)
Cultural
Systemic
 Need validation from identity groups
 Supportive groups help individuals to initiate
and maintain new behaviors (e.g. Eco Teams,
Transition Towns, CRAGs)
 Social movements and activist cultures (e.g.
Climate Action Groups, Climate Camps)
 Cultural change – symbols, media, discourse
 Supportive change agent cultures
 Cultural barriers – custom, myths
 Dialogue with participants
 Systems help or hinder target behaviors
 Hierarchy of preferential behaviors
 Diffusion of innovations – different strategies
for early adopters vs mainstream
 Feedback systems to support learning
 Persuasive technology and choice
architecture
 Information is important but not sufficient
 Financial incentives and penalties
 Supportive legal, political and social context
Transdisciplinarity
• Knowledge made up of scientific, social and
experiential.
• When seeking a solution to a problem ‘science
alone may not be enough’
• Mode 1 and Mode 2 knowledge production
key to distinguish.
Transdisciplinarity:
“a new form of learning and problem solving involving
cooperation among different parts of society AND
academia in order to meet complex challenges of
society” (Julie Klein et al., 2001)
Non-academic
environment
Discip
line
Monodisciplinary
21
8
DisciplDiscip Discipl
ine line ine
Multidisciplinary
Discipl Discipl Discipl
ine
ine ine
Interdisciplinary
Discipl Discipl Discipl
ine
ine ine
Transdisciplinary
Faculteit der Aard- en Levenswetenschappen
Climate Information and Planning
1. Knowledge about climate
change science and
climate variability.
Climate
Change
research
Policy &
decisionmaking
Fig 2: After Bradshaw and Borchers, 2000
2. Use of such knowledge the roles of scientists,
policy makers,
practitioners, civic society
and ‘brokers’ in research,
adaptation and planning.
Climate Policy &
Change decision
research -making
Climate
Change
research
Climate
Change
research
Policy &
decision
-making
Policy &
decisionmaking
Fig 4: After Bradshaw and Borchers, 2000
Beliefs, values, well being
• Climate change discussions often proceed from a plurality of
viewpoints (different belief systems simultaneously held by
different stakeholders) (O'Brien et al, 2010b). Belief systems
therefore determine consensus/dis-sensus regarding our
future in the changing climate.
• Belief systems influence our perception of climate change and
motivates our behavior towards nature.
• Changes in belief systems can be linked to fundamental
changes in the ways that we deal with climate change.
• (Source: Dr Loubser).
Current research on the relationship
between beliefs and climate change:
•
•
•
•
•
•
The Climate Beliefs project is part of the SANCOOP bilateral co-operation
between South Africa and Norway, funded by the NRF and RCN.
This project aims to find out how the causality between the impacts and
drivers of climate change challenge belief systems, by studying the flexibility of
environmental beliefs in rural communities in North West Province, South
Africa.
Dr. Ananka Loubser (NWU) and Prof. Karen O'Brien (UiO) mapped the beliefs
by using semi-structured interviews and Q methodology.
Flexibility was tested by introducing contradictory statements offering both
indigenous and scientific explanations for climate change.
Preliminary results show belief system plasticity: belief systems provide stable
points of reference to make sense of the world, but at the same time they
need to adapt to changes in the external environment, so that more flexible
belief systems lead to more proactive responses to climate variability and
change.
These findings may lead to a flexibility indicator with implications for climate
change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.
Field work: Climate Beliefs project: Jouberton, NW Province, SA
A participant in the study sorts
community-derived belief statements
in a Q sorting grid (likert scaling). The
results are analyzed statistically (Q
factor analysis) to determine the
interrelationships between the beliefs.
References:
LOUBSER, A.; 2012. Changes in epistemic
frameworks: random or constrained? Koers,
2012 77(2): Art #425.
LOUBSER, R.A; 2013. Tracing some
consensus regarding pre-scientific
frameworks in philosophy of science. Acta
Academica, 2013 45(2): 1-26.
O’BRIEN, K; HOCHACHKA, G; 2010a. Integral
adaptation to climate change. Journal of
Integral Theory and Practice, 5(1): 89-102.
O’BRIEN, K; WOLF, J; 2010b. A values-based
approach to vulnerability and adaptation to
climate change. Wiley Interdisciplinary
Reviews: Climate Change. ISSN 1757-7780.
1(2): 242-253.
Well being – FLOW project
(Ziervogel et al., UCT)
• A transdisciplinary research and action project
• Building a “Commons Transition” platform
(Michel Bauwens - http://p2pfoundation.net)
–
–
–
–
Youth development program – FLOW ambassadors
Community currency
Support municipal adaptation strategies
A poverty and inequality reduction strategy
Piketberg, Bergrivier
municaplity,
Western Cape
Kokstad,
Kwazulu
Natal
Build individual
adaptive capacity
ADAPTIVE AND GENERATIVE
CAPACITY IS INCREASED IN LOCAL
COMMUNITIES
Awareness of
and connection
to life support
systems is
increased
Selfdetermination
and social
cohesion is
increased
Build community
adaptive capacity
Localised
economic
exchange is
increased
FLOW integrated in municipal planning for 2015
- Youth development strategy
- Local Economic Development strategy
Adv. Hanlie Linde
(Bergrivier Municipal Manager):
“I have been doing social development for 20 years and I can tell you this is the first
program I have seen that can really constitute wellbeing in a community”
https://youtu.be/_yy59H8t3x4
Messy reality needing variety of engagement processes
(courtesy J. Colvin)
Recognising the ‘messiness’ and complexity of situations:
Complexity of
ecological – societal
relationships
Uncertainty about current
state and predictions
Controversy of
knowledge claims
Multiple stakeholders
and stakeholdings
Approaches
•
•
•
•
•
Social learning
Focus on belief systems and human well being
Transformative and incremental options
‘Active’ links to global efforts e.g. SDGs
May require movements – e.g. food
sovereignty, food security etc. including global
efforts e.g. Future Earth.
Acknowledgements
•
•
•
•
Various inputs e.g. IPCC scientists
Dr Mark Stafford Smith, CSIRO, Australia
Dr Gina Ziervogel, CSAG, UCT
Dr Ananka Loubser, University of
Potchefstroom