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Climate Change and Sustainable Development* C.Dasgupta, Distinguished Fellow, TERI I am grateful to Dr. Yap Kok Seng, Director General of the Malaysian Meteorological Department, for inviting me to deliver a keynote address on Climate Change and Sunshine Development. As developing countries, Malaysia and India have many common perspectives on climate change and I feel privileged to have this opportunity of interacting with Malaysia researchers. I was in Switzerland last month for a UN meeting. Switzerland, as you know, is renowned for its snow-clad Alpine slopes and a thriving winter sports industry. Many scientists believe that in another twenty years, the snow cover will have disappeared from the Alps because of climate change. This will spell the doom of the winter sports industry. Yet the Swiss economy will survive the blow and continue to thrive. Famous winter resorts may well convert themselves into summer resorts, where European tourists will seek refuge from the heat of the plains! In any case, Switzerland will adapt more or less successfully to climate change and continue to prosper. What about Malaysia, India, or other developing countries? In most developing countries a large proportion of the population are engaged in the traditional farming, an occupation that is particularly vulnerable to changes in temperature and rainfall patterns and extreme weather events. By contrast, in most developed countries, a large majority of the population is engaged in the industrial or services sectors, which are less directly dependent on climate stability. Moreover, farmers in economically advanced countries will be able to adapt more successfully to climate change by switching over to new seeds * Keyote Lecture delivered at the National seminar on Socio-Ecinomic Impacts of Extreme Weather and Climate Change, Kuala Lumpur, 22 June 2007 1 or plan varieties, new agricultural practices, new crops or even new occupations. They will not lack the financial or knowledge resource needed for investing in, say, patented seeds, drip irrigation and other water conservation measures, or coastal protection. As a general rule, in agriculture as well as other sectors of the economy, developing countries will find it much more difficult to adapt to climate because they lack the requisite resources in terms of capital, technologies and knowledge-based skills. They are severely handicapped on account of these factors. It follows that, for developing countries, the key to a successful response to climate change is accelerated development. Unless they achieve rapid development, these countries will remain woefully lacking in the financial, technological and human resources required for adapting to climate change in coming decades. Accelerated development is essential to ensure that future generations in these countries are able to cope successfully with climate change. While the long-term requirement for adaptation is sustained and accelerated development, what are the immediate measures that we must implement as soon as possible? In the first place, we must take climate change impacts into account in infrastructure planning. For example, sea-level rise should be taken into account in site selection and construction of infrastructure in coastal areas. Expected changes in rainfall patterns and glacier melt may have to be taken into account in planning hydroelectricity plants, and so on. In short, we should try climate-proof development to the extent possible. It goes without saying, of course, that this can at best provided a partial solution by moderating the impacts of climate change to certain extent. Therefore, a second set of measures is required in the form strengthening our capacity for coping with disasters associated with extreme weather events - floods, cyclones, etc. Early warning systems 2 have to be improved, as also our capacities for evacuation and provision of emergency relief and rehabilitation assistance. If we had been living in a fair world, developing countries would have received massive financial flows from the industrialized countries to assist their adaptation efforts since the latter are responsible for causing climate change. As well all know, climate change is caused not by emissions of greenhouse gases as such but by excessively high levels of such emissions. Human activities have resulted in greenhouse gas emissions since the dawn of history but it only in the Industrial Age, with the everexpanding consumption of hydrocarbon fuels, that greenhouse gas concentrations have reached a level that has resulted in climate change. All inhabitants of our planet have an equal right to the atmosphere but the industrialized countries have greatly exceeded their fair per capita share of the planet’s atmospheric resources, thereby inducing climate change. Generally speaking developing countries have not exceeded their fair share. If all countries had the same per capita emissions as India, for example, humanity climate change clearly lies with the industrialized countries; and in a just world they have compensated the developing countries on a massive scale. However, we do not live in an ideal world and it would be unrealistic for the developing countries to expect anything more than token assistance in adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change. We will have to rely on our own scarce resources to adjust as best as we can. To sum up, it is essential for developing countries to build up their adaptive capacity as quickly as possible. The requires sustained and accelerated developing, together with climate- proofing development to the extent possible. These requirements have to be factored into our development plans. 3 II Let us now turn to climate mitigation. What role should developing countries play in the international response to mitigate climate change? What can developing countries be reasonably expected to do in regard to mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and should these countries place the primary emphasis on mitigation or on adaptation? Where does climate change figure in the environmental priorities of developing countries and in what manner should poorer countries integrate climate change into development plans? These are question that we shall now address. As already noted, climate change is the result of excessive emissions originating from the industrialized countries. Equity requires that they should sharply reduce their emissions so as to allow other countries access to their fair share of atmospheric resources, while arresting climate change. Moreover, the industrialized countries also possess the financial and technological resources required for an adequate international response to climate change. Their role should fully reflect their responsibility for causing climate change as well as their greater capability foe addressing the challenge. On the basis of “common but differentiated responsibilities and [their] respective capabilities”, the Framework Convention and Kyoto Protocol require industrialized countries to stabilize and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These countries, with the exception of the former Soviet bloc “economic in transition” are also required to transfer financial resources and technology resources and technology to developing countries for mitigation and adapting purpose. Developing countries are exempted from these requirements. 4 This does not mean that developing countries have no commitments at all. All countries, including developing countries have certain common commitments, including a commitment to “formulate and implement …. Programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change”. However, it is clearly recognized that developing countries are not expected to divert scare financial resources from their development priorities. They are only expected to implement measures involving no additional costs. Projects involving incremental costs are required to be taken up only if the industrialized countries meet these additional costs. Thus the Framework Convention expressly recognizes: “The extent to which developing country Parties will effective implementation by developed country Parties of their commitments and will fully under the Convention related to financial resources and transfer of technology and will full take into account that economic and social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of the developing country Parties”. Industrial countries are now pressing for a revision of this basic compact. Skirting around the question of equity and responsibility, they are calling upon developing countries to accept new commitments; indeed, it is frequently asserted that at present developing countries have “no commitments” under the convention or the Kyoto Protocol. Powerful voices are being raised to press developing countries to strikes some sort of a balance between development and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. The argument runs that industrialized countries will not be able on their own to effect reductions in greenhouse gas emissions on the scale required to restrict climate change to acceptable limits and it is, therefore, necessary for developing countries to curb their rising greenhouse gas emissions, even if this entails some diversion of scare resources from their development priorities. We are being warned that if developing countries do 5 not accept this prescription, future generations will suffer the adverse consequences of extreme climate change. In this view, sustainable development implies a balance between development and climate change mitigation, which is treated as synonymous with protection of the environment. In one from or another, these propositions are being advanced with increasing insistence in ongoing climate change negotiations. They have profound implications for development, poverty eradication, environmental protection and future welfare of a majority of the world’s population. For this reason, they deserve careful examination. In the first place, as already noted, it is incorrect to state that developing countries currently have no commitments under the Framework Convention or Kyoto Protocol. Article 4.1 of the convention and Article 10 of the protocol commit all Parties to “formulate and implement …programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change”. While developing countries are not required to implement measures involving uncompensated incremental costs, they are implementing a wide range of measures that involve no additional costs in the sense that they are primarily intended to promote such development priorities as energy efficiency, energy security, local environmental concerns or forestry development. Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is a co-benefit in such cases and there is no diversion of resources from development priorities. The National Communications of many developing countries provided extensive accounts of such measures. A Pew Center study on “Climate change mitigation in developing countries” (October 2002) found that actions taken by six countries – Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa and Turkey – “reduced the of their combined annual greenhouse gas emissions over the past three decades by nearly 300 million tons a year.” 6 Second, there is logical confusion in the argument that since emission reductions in industrialized countries will not be sufficient to arrest climate change, it follows that developing countries should also accept emissions. No one questions the need to a commitment to moderate their growing moderate to the extent feasible the growing emissions originating in the developing countries. The real questions is, who pays for it? Under the Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol all incremental costs are to be met by industrialized countries through the GEF or the Clean Development Fund, Developing countries have been cooperating, on this financial basis, in international initiatives that moderate their growing emissions. What they oppose are attempts to shift the financial burden on to their shoulders by making these measures mandatory without corresponding financial offsets. This is the real issue. It is clearly inequitable to require developing countries to meet any part of the costs of mitigation a phenomenon caused by wealthy industrialized countries. Even if we leave aside the question of equity, it must be pointed out hat diversion of scarce resources from their development imperatives will inevitably cripple the long-term adaptive capacitive of these countries. proposals being made by The industrialized countries are, therefore, a highly inappropriate to climate change, not to speak of equity, development or poverty eradication. Finally, it is necessary to consider the environmental priorities of developing countries. Climate change undoubtedly poses a very serious environmental threat. Yet, in most developing countries, water and air pollution and lack of adequate sanitation pose environmental challenges that are just as serious as climate change – and much more immediate. These local environmental problem take a heavy toll in human lives today. While climate change is largely a middle –and long - threat, these local pollution 7 problems constitute a critical present threat, crying out for an urgent solution. Not surprising, they are accorded correspondingly high priority in development plans of poorer countries. Diversion of the scare resources of a developing country to limiting greenhouse gas emissions might distort its proper environmental priorities. To sum up these observations on mitigation, developing countries can and should continue to implement no-cost measures with mitigation co-benefits, as well as measures involving incremental costs provided that industrialized countries meet these costs. It would be inequitable as well as being counter-productive, in terms of economic growth, adaptive capacity and local environmental priorities to reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. III Having looked at both aspects of the response to climate change – adaptations and mitigation – we are now in a position to consider the overall relationship of climate change to sustainable development. Like most concept that gain universal acceptance, the term “ sustainable development” is not notable for it is rigorous definition. The most commonly cited definition, taken from the Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development (1978) entitled Our Common Future is as follows: “Sustainable development is development that meet their own needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” On a superficial reading this definition deals only the question of inter-generational equity but, in fact. It expressly covers also intra-generational equity. Thus, the Report goes on to elucidate the “concept of “ needs ”, in particular the essential needs of the world’s poor, to which 8 overriding priority should be given”. Thus, “ sustainable development addresses the question of a balance between economic growth and protection o scare environmental resources as also the questions of equity between, and within, present and future generations. I now come to the conclusion. The argument develop in this lecture may be summed in the form of three propositions concerning the relationship between development and climate change: (1) In the context of climate change, rapid development is sustainable development. Unless they develop rapidly, developing countries will be unable to adapt to climate change with any degree of success. Future generations will have to pay a heavy price for tardy development. (2) In order to make their fair contribution to mitigating climate change, developing countries should implement all feasible no-cost measures delivering mitigation co-benefits. They should also seek opportunities for implementing additional measures if industrialized countries meet the incremental costs involved. (3) It would be counter-productive for developing countries in terms of economic and social progress as well health –related local environmental goals, to divert scarce resources from these priorities to mitigation measures involving uncompensated incremental costs. 9