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Directorate-General for Research Directorate A: Medium and long-term research Division for Industry, Research, Energy, Environment and STOA BRIEFING ENVI 510 EN GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY: THE ROLE OF CARBON SINKS The opinions expressed are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the European Parliament. Luxembourg, 14 August 2002 PE 322.353 This document is only available in English. You will find the full list of ‘Environment’ briefings at the end of this publication. Summary The Marrakesh Accords turned provisions to tackle climate change of the Kyoto Protocol into a legally binding text. The resulting document was substantially weaker than the original protocol but it still represents an important first step in the global strategy to tackle climate change and it should be welcomed as a positive example of multilateral governance. The most controversial issues discussed in Marrakesh were monitoring, compliance, and the modalities of use of the Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks. The issue of carbon sinks was particularly important. Their inclusion in the protocol can help the parties meet their commitments in a cost-effective way but could also grant free credits thus undermining the credibility of the protocol. However, there are forestry management options that can enhance the carbon sequestration of terrestrial sinks. Although the storage is not permanent, the sequestration in biomass can buy time to develop alternative solutions. Publisher: European Parliament L-2929 Luxembourg Author: Valentina Bastino (ex-former Ramón y Cajal scholar) Responsible official: Peter Palinkas Division for Industry, Research, Energy, Environment and STOA Tel. (352) 43 00-22920 Fax (352) 43 00-20016 E-mail: [email protected] Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the publisher is given prior notice and sent a copy. Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1. THE FLEXIBILITY MECHANISMS ......................................................................................................................... 6 1.2. MARRAKESH ACCORDS ..................................................................................................................................... 6 1.3. OUTCOMES OF THE MARRAKESH TALKS............................................................................................................ 7 2. THE CARBON SINKS ISSUE ...................................................................................................................... 8 2.1. THE CARBON CYCLE AND TERRESTRIAL SINKS .................................................................................................. 8 2.2. THE SINK CONTROVERSY ................................................................................................................................. 10 2.3. CRITICAL ISSUES CONCERNING LULUCF ACTIVITIES ..................................................................................... 10 2.4. OPINIONS AND DIFFERENT PARTIES’ POSITION ................................................................................................. 12 3. MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH FOREST MANAGEMENT ................................................ 15 3.1. FORESTRY OPTIONS TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE ....................................................................................... 15 3.2. DIFFICULTIES IN ESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL OF FORESTRY OPTIONS: FACTORS IN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS ...... 16 3.3. COMMENTS ON SOME FORESTRY OPTIONS ....................................................................................................... 17 4. RECOMMENDATIONS............................................................................................................................ 19 5. CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................................................... 21 6. BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................................................................................................................................... 23 FULL LIST OF ‘ENVIRONMENT’ BRIEFINGS ............................................................................................ 25 3 PE 322.353 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks PE 322.353 4 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks 1. Introduction Weather and climate have a profound influence on life on earth, being essential for health, food production and well-being (IPCC, 2001a). Scientific evidence exists which indicates that human-induced changes are being made to the climate, mainly through the emission of greenhouse gases. In particular, the carbon emissions of the present energy system, approximately 85 % of which rely on fossil fuels, play a main role in the climate change issue (Spitzer, 1998). Indeed, since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has greatly increased by approximately 30 %, from 280 to 370 PPM. This was caused by increased fossil-fuel burning for energy production and transportation and also for a change in energy consumption patterns. Larger areas of arable land for increased agricultural production also led to a further rise in the atmospheric CO2. Electricity generating power plants are one of the major CO2 sources, responsible for about one third of all CO2 released in the atmosphere. Another major CO2 source is the extensive and growing use of fossil fuels by the transportation industry. According to general circulation models, the warming trend, in a doubling CO2 emissions scenario, has been estimated to be around 3 ± 1.5 °C, with regional temperature increases at mid- to high-latitudes, possibly exceeding 10 °C. The pace of climate change, however, seems to have accelerated — the warming trend until the end of the 21st century is predicted to be in the range 1.4 to 5.8 °C (Papadopol, 2002). In 1998, The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The aim was, and remains, to provide an assessment of the understanding of all aspects of climate change, including how human activities can cause such changes and can be impacted by them. The IPCC recognised that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have the potential to alter the climate system and it was also recognised that addressing such global issues required organisation on a global scale, including an assessment of the understanding of the issue by the worldwide expert communities (IPCCa, 2001). The Rio Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, brought the global environmental and social problems to the fore of every nation’s political agenda. A number of documents were produced, setting the foundation to action in order to tackle global problems. On this occasion the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was produced. The objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and of any instrument adopted under it, is to stabilise the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system (Langrock, 2001). The UNFCCC declares that all the parties shall promote sustainable management and the conservation and enhancement, as appropriate, of sinks and reservoirs of all greenhouse gases, including biomass, forests and oceans as well as other terrestrial, coastal and marine ecosystems (Lashof and Hare, 1999). The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, represents the first legal instrument to put into practice the agreements reached in Rio de Janeiro. It established a broad framework for international action against climate change, establishing emission targets and a series of market-based instruments in order to achieve these targets (Ford, 2002). The emissions targets are to be met between 2008–12 by the industrialised countries and six greenhouse gases are covered: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). 5 PE 322.353 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks 1.1. The flexibility mechanisms The Kyoto Protocol introduced a series of mechanisms in order to grant some flexibility for the parties to achieve the agreed reduction targets. These have been the subject of very active debate in the subsequent conferences of parties as different countries took very different positions on them. The three Kyoto mechanisms are the following: emissions trading (possibility of buying and selling emissions permits), joint implementation (emissions saving projects in other industrialised countries) and clean development mechanism (industrialised countries can invest in emissions-saving projects in developing countries). For the first time market-based policy instruments are put at the heart of environmental policies, hopefully ensuring that the emission reduction targets are achieved in the most cost-effective manner. (Moreira da Silva, 2002). In particular, the clean development mechanism could be an important means of encouraging technology transfer and sustainable development. An alternative way to provide the parties with flexibility in reaching the agreed reduction targets, was the inclusion of carbon sinks in the protocol. This issue became very important since the beginning of the negotiation process. 1.2. Marrakesh Accords The seventh Conference of the Parties (COP) in Marrakesh, October to November 2001, was set up to translate the Kyoto Protocol into a legally binding document and resulted in the adoption of the Marrakesh Accords. The Kyoto Protocol established the framework for action against climate change but left the details about policies and compliance rules to be decided at a later stage, in the subsequent conferences of the parties. The conference in The Hague (COP 6), in 2001, did not yield the results hoped for, while the subsequent COP 6a in Bonn (2001) saw the parties agreeing on major issues, such as the operating rules for emissions trading, the role of carbon sinks in achieving emission targets, funding to help developing countries and mechanisms to enforce compliance. The technical aspects and the legal details, however, were discussed in Marrakesh, where the Kyoto Protocol was finalised for full implementation. Now the protocol is ready for ratification and will take effect once it is ratified by at least 55 countries, accounting for 55 % of developed countries’ emissions of CO2 in 1990 (Ford, 2002). The European Union has ratified the Kyoto Protocol in May 2002 by handing up its ratification papers to the UN headquarters in New York, fulfilling the ambition to have the Kyoto Protocol enter into force before the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in August 2002 (Mahony, 2002). PE 322.353 6 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks 1.3. Outcomes of the Marrakesh talks The Marrakesh Accords are defined by Athanasiou and Baer (2001) as a ‘dilution to the Bonn compromise to the Kyoto Protocol’ and deplore the potential loopholes created in the protocol, mainly because of the influence of some parties. Indeed, after the withdrawal of the US from the negotiation, it was necessary to make large concessions to some countries that in fact held veto power on the negotiations. These countries were part of the so-called ‘gang of four’ — Japan, Canada, Australia and Russia — which took advantage of their position to obtain concessions in order to minimise their commitments, maximise the freedom to use flexibility mechanisms including carbon sinks, and protect themselves from the enforcement actions should they be unable to meet their targets (Athanasiou and Baer, 2001). However, they did not act as a compact block, having different interests. The main and most controversial issues discussed in Marrakesh were monitoring, compliance and the modalities of use of the Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks, including the banking of credits (Athanasiou et al., 2001). In addition to the issues already present in the Bonn agreements, the Marrakesh Accords added details to the compliance system in the form of opportunities for public participation in the compliance procedure (Ford, 2002). The final agreement established that the parties can receive credit towards their targets for carbon absorbed in sinks, such as soil and forest management. Country-specific caps have been put in place. However, the weak caps agreed on in Bonn were further weakened because of pressures from Russia, which obtained a vast amount of credits. Also the rules governing the quality of the sinks were weakened: sinks have to be reported annually but the quality of the reporting will not be penalised, and the parties can still use the flexibility mechanisms. Various authors underline that this in fact deprives the provision of its strength (Athanasiou et al., 2001 and Ford, 2002). A way of maintaining the integrity of the protocol would have been to apply a strict regulation on the banking of credit for the second commitment period but concessions had to be made because of the requirements of the gang of four (Athanasiou et al., 2001). The credits generated by sinks are accounted as removal units that can be used to meet a party’s emission target in the commitment period in which they are generated and cannot be banked. All emission units created using the Kyoto mechanisms are to be treated equally in order to maximise cost effectiveness (Ford, 2002). Emission trading rules were established. To take part in the trading a country must be a party of the protocol, have its emission allocation and a registry in place. The coalition between Europe and the G77/China group wanted to add requirements such as the preparation of an annual sink inventory and a link between trading and compliance. These issues were dropped because it was impossible to break the resistance of the gang of four (Ford, 2002). A compliance system was established together with a compliance committee. The idea was to link the use of flexibility mechanisms to compliance: countries would have to ratify the future compliance amendment before they would be allowed to participate in the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms. However, the pressure of the gang of four prevented the establishment of clear links. It is in fact legally possible for the parties to be out of compliance but being still able to utilise the flexibility mechanisms (Ford, 2002), leaving room for abuse of the system (Athanasiou et al., 2001). 7 PE 322.353 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks Finally, a special package for least developed countries, likely to be more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, has been adopted, in order to provide the resources and techniques to adapt their fragile economies to the effects of climate change (European Commission, 2001). 2. The carbon sinks issue 2.1. The carbon cycle and terrestrial sinks The atmosphere of the Earth is composed mainly of nitrogen, oxygen and argon, gases with only limited interaction with the incoming solar radiation and with the infrared radiation emitted by the Earth. However, other trace gases are present, which absorb and emit infrared radiation emitted by the Earth and thus play an essential role in the planet’s energy budget. These gases act as greenhouse gases and re-emit the infrared radiation they absorb up and downward, thus raising the temperature of the earth and playing a very important role in its climatic regime (IPCCa, 2001). One of the main and most important greenhouse gases is carbon dioxide (CO 2) and along with the need to control emissions the Kyoto Protocol recognises the need to preserve and enhance the amount of carbon stored in the terrestrial biosphere (Lashof et al., 1999). The global carbon cycle consists of carbon flows and stocks. Hundreds of billions of tonnes of CO2 are absorbed from or emitted to the atmosphere through natural processes in a year. The flows include plant photosynthesis, respiration and decay, as well as oceanic absorption and release of carbon dioxide. The stocks include the ocean, the atmosphere and the terrestrial ones, which are very heterogeneous and difficult to measure. The largest terrestrial carbon stock is represented by fossil-fuels deposits (World Resources Institute, 2002). In order to have an idea of the magnitude of the fluxes involved in the global carbon cycle it is useful to consider the estimated quantities of carbon present in different sinks and the potential for enhancing these sinks. Table 1 provides the quantities of carbon stored in the different sinks. Table 1. The quantities of carbon stored in different sinks, measured in Gigatonnes (Gt) Sink Amount of carbon stored in Gigatonnes (Gt) Atmosphere 750 Oceans’ surface layers 800 Deep oceans 34 000 Fossil-fuel deposits 10 000 Forested ecosystems 1 146 Source: World Resource Institute, 2002 and Sohngen, Mendelsohn and Sedjo, 1998. PE 322.353 8 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks The global carbon cycle is now out of balance: the amount of CO2 present in the atmosphere has increased by more than 30 % since the Industrial Revolution and it is still increasing at an unprecedented rate of 0.4 % a year (IPCCa, 2001). Moreover, many biological processes resulting from agricultural and silvicultural practices can release carbon dioxide e.g. slash and burn agriculture, clearing of land, development of infrastructures, accidental or intentional forest burning, unsustainable logging and fuel-wood collection. Clearing vegetation not only releases much of the carbon in the atmosphere but also some of the carbon locked in the soil. The effect of deforestation will depend in large part on the amount of land deforested and the amount of carbon stored at the time of deforestation. On average, however, it is estimated that the amount of carbon released would be 400 t C/ha above and below ground in boreal forests, 150 t C/ha in temperate forests and 250 t C/ha in tropical forests (IPCC, 2000). See Table 2 for the global area of forest. Also logging or harvesting in forests can degrade the vegetation cover and result in net release of carbon. Other agricultural practices beside deforestation release greenhouse gases: e.g. methane is released if combustion is incomplete or when biomass rots. Regular burning of pastures or grassland releases CO2, N2O, and ozone. N2O can also be released when applying fertilisers (World Resources Institute, 2002). Table 2. Global area of forests (IPCC, 2000) Zone Area (billion hectares) Boreal zone 1.4 Temperate zone 1.0 Tropical zone 1.8 Global 4.2 The Kyoto Protocol recognises that forests and land-use changes are a part of the problem and could be part of the solution. Indeed, some land-use activities can slow down the release of carbon and increase the terrestrial carbon sinks: enhancing forest protection, reforestation projects, increasing the carbon stored in agricultural soil, substituting fossil fuel burning with biomass energy sources, increasing the carbon stored in artificial reservoirs such as timber products. Table 3 shows the annual carbon sequestration rates, in above- and below-ground biomass, that could potentially be achieved through afforestation and reforestation. The maximum amount of carbon that might be sequestered by global afforestation and reforestation activities for the 55 year period between 1995 and 2050 was estimated at 60–87 Gt of carbon, with about 70 % in tropical forests, 25 % in temperate forests and 5 % in boreal forests (IPCC, 2000). It is important to point out that the annual carbon sequestration value is not constant but changes from year to year depending on various environmental factors, such as weather conditions, and it is likely to change in the long term (IPCC, 2000). 9 PE 322.353 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks Table 3. Potential carbon sequestration, including above- and below-ground biomass, by afforestation and reforestation activities, measured in tonnes per hectare per year (IPCC, 2000). Region Boreal regions Temperate regions Tropical regions Carbon sequestered (tonnes/ha/yr) 0.4–1.2 1.5–4.5 4–8 2.2. The sink controversy Land-use changes resulting from various human activities, such as changes in the agricultural practices and irrigation, reforestation, deforestation or afforestation, can greatly contribute to change the physical and biological properties of the land surface and thus influence the climate system (IPCCa, 2001). Scientific evidence suggests that the terrestrial biosphere can be used to slow the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere (Schlamadinger and Marland, 2000) but whether the carbon sinks should be included in the strategy to combat climate change has been the subject of intense debate since the beginning of the negotiation concerning the Kyoto Protocol. Some issues have technical solutions but many will require political solutions. Some critical issues that were brought to the fore are described in the following section. In Bonn it was agreed that forest management, cropland management, grazing land management and revegetation are all eligible as LULUCF (land use, land use change and forestry) activities (Dessai, 2001). During the Marrakesh climate talks these activities were accepted and regulated, although they are seen by many as a potential loophole that would allow some parties to meet their emission targets without actually taking any domestic action to cut down on CO2 emissions. As a matter of fact, notwithstanding the position of the EU and the G77/China group, large concessions had to be made in Marrakesh in order to obtain the Russian consensus (Athanasiou et al., 2001). 2.3. Critical issues concerning LULUCF activities The issue on whether to include the LULUCF activities saw great debate in the course of the negotiation, with some parties welcoming the inclusion of carbon sinks as a cost-effective way of meeting emission targets and others concerned that this could deprive the protocol of its force, due to some uncertainties and other problems connected with the carbon sinks. Some of the issues that characterised the debate about the carbon sinks and the LULUCF activities in general concerned the definition of the terms utilised in the Kyoto Protocol to define forests and forest management practices. Indeed, Schlamadinger and Marland (2000) point out that a broad search of the literature revealed 130 definitions of forest, some based on legal parameters, others on land-use characteristics or land cover. Different definitions sometimes also reflect the differences in applications and geographic settings. It can be easily understood how a disagreement over the definition of a forest can lead the negotiations to a halt. PE 322.353 10 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks The concern that certain changes in carbon stock are not directly human induced brought the parties to negotiate the inclusion only of ‘direct, human-induced’ activities, in order to avoid a windfall of free credits when no actual action to improve the sequestration of carbon has been taken. However, in some cases it is not clear what can be considered as direct human-induced, and the IPCC, not being able to define it on technical or scientific grounds, remitted the decision to the policy-makers (Schlamadinger et al., 2000). In order to verify the additionality of a carbon take-up, a possible method would be to introduce a project-based accounting system able to compare the project areas with a valid control area. This should make it possible to isolate direct human intervention from indirect and natural carbon flows (Lashof et al., 1999). Another problem related to the carbon sink is that they could be a very valid option only if additional to domestic action to decrease the emissions of greenhouse gases. Otherwise, the parties could meet their reduction targets without having implemented any kind of measure to cut down on the emissions from the fossil fuel use. Indeed, substantial use of carbon sinks to meet the Kyoto commitments might even enable a higher consumption of fossil fuel. This implies a slower rate of development and introduction of new energy saving technologies and measures. There is also the risk of increasing costs if action is taken with delay (Lashof et al., 1999). Another concern regards the verifiability of the stock change. The question is whether verifiability involves a second-party confirmation or simply verifiable means that the process of reporting the carbon-stock change should be open to verification by third parties. A possible way to deal with this problem and also with the uncertainties in the measurement should be to limit the value of the credit and debits accounting for the uncertainty of the measurement. However, the Marrakesh Accords are considerably less strict. Annual reporting is required and the parties need to declare whether or not they separate indirect and natural effects from their estimates of carbon sequestration in forests, but failure to meet the quality threshold does not endanger eligibility to participate in the mechanisms. This compromise was needed in order to accommodate the needs of Russia, unable to meet the sinks reporting requirements (Dessai, 2001). Probably one of the major worries regards the permanence of the sinks, a problem which some authors consider insurmountable in the sink controversy (Langrock, 2001). Carbon locked in the biosphere may not be permanently sequestered and there might also be some unaccounted losses of carbon should the commitment periods not be successive (Schlamadinger et al., 2000). Also, trading off biospheric and lithospheric (fossil fuel) carbon is risky due to the different timescales associated with these carbon pools. Carbon is locked permanently in fossil-fuel deposits unless extracted for human use while biotic carbon pools can change considerably in a timeframe of years. Moreover, the carbon taken up during the 40–100 years it takes for a forest to approach its maximum biomass could be lost suddenly, for example, in the event of a catastrophic fire, together with the soil carbon which would be oxidised directly by fire. The temperature of the soil would also be higher for a relatively long period thus increasing activity and soil respiration with a consequent release of carbon (Lashof et al., 1999). Furthermore, human activities might increase the carbon stock in the biosphere in one place but this might lead to losses from the biosphere in other places. This problem is defined as leakage. An example is that avoiding deforestation in one place might lead a transfer of the demand for land in another area (Tipper, 1998) or to acceleration of deforestation in one other place. Indeed, a large reforestation programme leads to greater availability of timber with a consequent decrease in timber prices. This in turn will lead to a decrease of the rate of planting in other places, or the reduced price for timber may even lead to the conversion of existing forests to 11 PE 322.353 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks agricultural use. It has to be pointed out, however, that the problem of leakage is not exclusive to the sink’s enhancement activities. It can happen also in energy-use related activities but it is not clear to what extent one method is more prone than the other to this phenomenon (Schlamandinger et al., 2000). Another aspect of the controversy is regarding the uncertainties in monitoring and accounting, which posed problems on which gases and pools should be considered. Indeed, a good system of accounting is important considering, for example, that some changes in land use and forestry practices could absorb but also release CO2 and some other greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide, may be involved too. Devising an efficient accounting system, however, is likely to be costly and complex (Schlamandinger et al., 2000). The difficulties in monitoring and accounting also pose the problem of accuracy in calculating the carbon removals that should qualify as credits under the Kyoto Protocol. Indeed, an improvement in the accuracy of the calculations could lead to the identification of an increase in the actual removal taking place, and as a consequence LULUCF credits could equal the expected reduction below the 1990 baseline. This means that instead of achieving actual reductions in the CO2 emissions, parties would have a windfall of credits to meet the Kyoto targets and the emissions from fossil fuel use may even increase (Lashof et al., 1999). 2.4. Opinions and different parties’ position Studies carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) demonstrated that in all the relevant timeframes the uptake of carbon by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere were essential in the stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 levels (Lashof et al., 1999), suggesting that their inclusion in the climate change strategy should be welcomed. However, Lashof and Hare (1999) point out that the carbon cycle models utilised computed the uptake by some of the agents without considering the possible effects of climate change, for example possible changes in ocean circulation and biological activity, when calculating the uptake from oceans. Another possible effect would be the increasing importance of respiration, as the climate warms, in relation to the CO2 fertilisation, which along with land use changes could lead to increased loss from the terrestrial biosphere. Some authors go as far as predicting that the terrestrial biosphere could even turn into a net source of carbon. Studies carried out in Finland showed that the impact of individual forest activities can indeed be negligible; however, the carbon balance in a forest can be significantly influenced through a suite of forest management practices (Indufor, 2001). It would therefore be advisable to include well-planned forestry programmes to help the parties meet their targets. As an example of the potential of combining different management practices, Table 4 shows the predicted impact on the carbon balance of some forest management activities carried out in Finland. PE 322.353 12 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks Table 4. Impact of some forest management activities in Finland in 2008–12 (Indufor, 2001) Activity Impact (1000s tonnes C/yr) + sink/–source Forest fires – 25 Prescribed burning – 16 More rapid regeneration + 11 More secure regeneration + 117 Note Forest fires occur so seldomly in Finland that their number cannot be feasibly reduced In the long term, could be carbonneutral since residues would combust, may increase carbon emissions from top-soils New forest generation created sooner New forest generation created sooner Reforestation of exhausted + 117 peat production areas May require fertilisation Improvement of young stands – 480 Early thinnings lead to slightly decreased growth in volume terms but improved stand characteristics Fertilisation Retention trees Changes in rotation periods First time drainage and ditch cleaning + 76 – 27 Forest protection + 989 Collection of logging residues ? ± 6 594 + 2 207 Decreased net growth Temporary stock change, estimated impact of a ± 1 year change Improved tree growth Growth in currently protected forest area Removal of nutrients may lead to slightly lower growth, but if residues replace fossil fuels in rural energy production, there will be a clearly positive carbon impact In general, different parties assumed different positions responding to their individual needs. The present state of affairs in Europe is fairly optimistic. The target accepted by the EU of an 8 % reduction has been half fulfilled. Between 1990 and 1999, GHG emissions have been reduced by 4 %. However, this reduction does not reflect a clear effort in cutting down on emissions. The decrease results from reductions in the UK and Germany, and even there it has been more of a positive externality rather than the result of a targeted policy towards GHG emission reductions (the UK switched from coal to natural gas and in Germany there was an industrial conversion in the former German Democratic Republic). The European Union adopted a leading role in the climate talks, being in favour of the inclusion of carbon sinks but, in view of uncertainty over their scale and permanence, to limit the extent to which they can be 13 PE 322.353 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks used to meet the agreed targets and to postpone their inclusion until the real implications could be made clear. The EU had to compromise during the Marrakesh talks in order to maintain the support of other countries, resulting in a less ambitious protocol (Moreira da Silva, 2002). The EU had the support of the G77/China group which advocated the introduction of very strict limits on the inclusion of carbon sinks. The main concern seemed to be the creation of long-term land commitments which could hinder the possibility of development. Some countries were also concerned that allowing forestry projects to be considered as clean development mechanisms could result in slower technology transfer due to the forestry projects competing with other more ambitious emission-cutting projects. On the other hand, some countries put forward the idea that the inclusion of sinks could help economic development and help in the preservation of their ecological resources. The latter position was shared by Latin American countries, interested in preserving their forests and encouraging sustainable development (Schlamadinger et al., 2000). In general, the countries favourable to the inclusion of carbon sinks were those with abundant forest resources, for example New Zealand, Norway and Finland, which, however, called for country-specific data in order to understand the real impact on meeting the agreed commitments (Schlamandinger et al., 2000). Other countries, with forest resources, such as Canada, Australia and the US (although the latter was not directly involved in the Marrakesh negotiations), expressed fundamental unwillingness to submit their energy economies to international regulations. They therefore clearly showed their interest in the carbon sinks. Russia is an interesting case, and its position caused concern in the negotiation. First of all, because of political and economic reasons its emissions are lower than they were in 1990, so that Russia has actually got a huge number of CO2-equivalents surplus, denominated ‘hot air’. The ‘hot air’ problem does not only apply to Russia but also to the Ukraine and other east European countries. Not only does the surplus of emission rights not correspond to actual reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases, but the ‘hot air’ can also have a strong influence on the world market price for emission rights (Michaelowa, 2001). Moreover, in the course of the negotiations in Marrakesh, Russia obtained large concessions more than doubling the assigned amount of carbon sinks that can be used to meet the agreed targets. The Russian sink under the Marrakesh Accords amounts to 121 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents per year and if some other countries with a similar economic development path should take up emission targets, then the amount of ‘hot air’ on the global market may increase. This might happen, for example, for Kazakhstan, which manifested the desire to take up emission targets. In the Kazakhstan case, the ‘hot air’ would amount to 80 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents (Michaelowa, 2001). Also, Japan showed great interest in the carbon-sinks provision. This might be due to the fact that, since the Kyoto Protocol bases the reduction on the level of emissions in 1990, it would be more costly for more efficient energy users like Japan to cut down on emissions (Athanasiou et al., 2001). It has to be said, however, that Japan was in favour of inclusion of the LULUCF activities only when better accounting methodologies were developed, supported in this by Canada, which suggested that credits assigned may be adjusted because of the uncertainties in the measurement. Finally, a very strong position was that of the oil-exporting countries, which strongly advocated the carbon sinks inclusion as a way to offset emissions produced by the burning of fossil fuels. Also Saudi Arabia and other oil exporting countries carried out lobbying to obtain financial PE 322.353 14 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks compensation for lost revenues when the developed countries cut down on the consumption of oil to meet their emission targets (Taylor, 2002). On the whole then, it was impossible to reach consensus on the protocol if not by making large concessions to the countries that, because of the withdrawal of the US, held great power in the negotiations. The caps placed on the use of carbon sinks stipulated in Bonn were not accepted by Russia, who bargained and obtained almost double the amount of credits they were originally assigned. Accepting domestic forestry activities as carbon sinks effectively grants free CO 2 credits. Indeed, these forestry activities were normally in place independently from climate change action and also the carbon sequestration is due to re-growth after deforestation, CO2 fertilisation and nitrogen deposition. That means that the growth and therefore the absorption of carbon is occurring not because of direct human induced changes (Athanasiou et al., 2001). 3. Mitigating climate change through forest management Having carbon sinks been included in the Marrakesh Accords, it is now important to consider carefully the policy and management options available in order to gain benefits from the provision. Biotic policy options deserve careful consideration because they have great potential in terms of mitigating climate change and also developing other public policy objectives, such as stopping deforestation and increasing biodiversity (World Resource Institute, 2002). Indeed, improving forest and soil management can improve water and nutrients retention, reduce soil erosion, improve wildlife habitat and increase biodiversity (IPCC, 2001b). However, Lashof and Hare (1999) indicate that, since atmospheric stabilisation requires a great increase in stored biotic carbon and a constrained fossil-fuel emissions budget, an appropriate policy response would be to create incentives for preserving and enhancing carbon sinks and reservoirs and, at the same time, incentives to reduce fossil-fuel consumption. These measures, though, have to be applied in the right geographical location in order to maximise the benefits; for example, slowing reforestation will make more sense in some countries where deforestation is taking place at incredible rates. The techniques exist but very few examples of successful policies and projects can be found. For example, many protected areas are degraded and sustainable natural forest management remains rare (World Resource Institute, 2002). 3.1. Forestry options to mitigate climate change A way of mitigating climate change could be understanding and manipulating the carbon cycle, taking into consideration that the largest carbon exchange occurs between the atmosphere and plants (Papadopol, 2002). Sequestration of the extra carbon present in the atmosphere is possible, but while before the Industrial Revolution it was permanently locked into underground pools, it may now be locked in the biomass only for a short period. This is due to the decomposition of biomass and soil organic matter releasing the carbon back into the atmosphere. 15 PE 322.353 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks As a consequence, carbon sequestered in forests represents transient and impermanent pools. In this context the soils and roots of terrestrial ecosystems may play a very important role, since two-thirds of terrestrial carbon is found below ground. Indeed, through root/soil interactions, the forest soils may sequester carbon released by decomposing plant litter (Balasini, 2001). Moreover, once stored below ground, carbon has slower turnover rates than the above-ground carbon, thus resulting in carbon being locked for longer periods and protected from fire and other disturbances (Papadopol, 2002). Even considering the underground storage, carbon sequestration is still a temporary solution, but it is important to bear in mind that this delay could buy a relatively long time to develop alternative solutions. These alternative solutions may include techniques such as underground and underwater storage of CO2. Unlike grasses and most crops that either have a shorter life cycle or even release carbon at the end of each season (Balasini, 2001), forest biomass can accumulate carbon over a time scale of 50 to 100 years. In fact, a well-planned, active forestry programme could lock carbon in biomass intended for fuel-wood on average for two or three centuries and even longer if the carbon is locked underground (Papadopol, 2002). Commercial management of forests can also have positive externalities. In general, the main objective of managing a natural, or semi-natural forest is wood production for industrial use, which correlates positively with the development of a good carbon stock. Notwithstanding the fact that a forest owner tends to maximise the value of the forest produce rather than the mere volume, generally speaking forest management practices tend to promote total growth. This normally promotes carbon sequestration in the above-ground biomass and it is thought it could also improve below-ground sequestration (Indufor, 2001). It is important to note however, that some forest management practices, such as peatland drainage and heavy/deep soil preparation, can lead to release of soil carbon. 3.2. Difficulties in estimating the potential of forestry options: factors in forest ecosystems There is potential then in forest management practices but some factors likely to impact a forest ecosystem have to be taken into consideration. For example, the projection for population growth shows that great pressure will be exerted on the forested areas with a massive shift of land use to industrial activities and agriculture, with consequences on the carbon cycle. Forestry projects have to be tailored according to the geographic and topographic location. Although carbon cycling occurs year round through photosynthesis and decomposition, the permanence in the stock of the carbon also depends on the geographic location of the forest because the rate of decomposition is influenced by temperature and other factors linked to the latitude. It was found, for example, that mid- and high-latitude forests act as a net carbon sink offsetting the deforestation process taking place in the tropical forests. The decomposition rate of biomass is also strongly influenced by factors such as species composition, site conditions, disturbance and management practices. Another factor to be considered is that CO2 fertilisation produces more rapid growth and increased photosynthesis, thus allowing shorter rotation periods. This is more pronounced when there is a shortage of nutrient or other environmental stresses which may be the case for midand high latitude forests. For example, studies confirmed that European forests are likely to undergo an accumulation of biomass due to CO2 fertilisation, because of more active photosynthesis and extended growing seasons under changing climate conditions, assuming a PE 322.353 16 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks good water supply, with a growing stock of 25 %. However, CO2 saturation will have to be taken into consideration too, with respiration assuming progressively more importance and increasing the net release of carbon (Lashof et al., 1999). All the above shows how large uncertainty exists about the prediction of future forest distribution composition and productivity, and hence the difficulty in estimating their actual potential as carbon sinks. At the moment global models to predict the role of improved forest management in mitigating carbon fluxes have not yet been developed. Nevertheless, the most promising ways to increase carbon sequestration in any one forest seem to be: slowing deforestation and forest degradation; expanding existing forests and enhance their role as sinks through forest management practices; creation of new sinks; restoring forest coverage; suppressing fires; manage forests with shorter rotations, as young forests have a higher rate of sequestration. CO2 fertilisation is thought to increase forest productivity; substitution of fossil fuels with renewable wood-based fuels. 3.3. Comments on some forestry options Restoring the forest cover and enhancing the carbon sinks Because the rate of CO2 liberation from the soil varies with soil temperature, then direct exposure of the soil to radiation and aeration could release larger quantities of carbon stocked. It is reasonable to draw the conclusion that the manipulation of stand density and shadow could significantly reduce the liberation of the stored carbon thus creating a larger sink. A good practice to obtain a more efficient carbon sink would be to restore the forest coverage immediately after harvesting has taken place, in order to maintain an active and almost continuous carbon sequestration process. While reforesting, managers should take the opportunity to manipulate the species composition in order to maximise productivity and selecting also the plants better adapted to modified climatic conditions, thus improving their function as sinks. Also, immediate reforestation avoids long periods with the forest soil exposed, thus avoiding rapid decomposition of the soil organic matter and consequent release of CO2 in the atmosphere. Besides, rapid reforestation after harvesting can protect sensitive areas from erosion. The importance of canopy cover in carbon sequestration is also demonstrated by the estimates of carbon fluxes from afforestation and deforestation activities. Indeed, some estimates reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in their report on LULUCF activities would be quite reduced if the calculations were carried out considering a smaller canopy cover percentage. The use of higher thresholds in modelling to estimate the carbon fluxes normally accounts for deforestation and also forest degradation, although, on the other hand, it does not account for the establishment or clearing of open forests (IPCC, 2000). 17 PE 322.353 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks Expanding existing carbon sinks Large existing forested areas are presently not sequestering carbon at the maximum of their potential. Management options exist that would improve the sink capacity of these forests. These include: adding chemical fertilisers to boost productivity, reduce shifting cultivation and marginal agriculture, improve the retention of debris and plant litter after logging operations and reforesting, which would stop erosion and excessively rapid decomposition of soil organic matter. The management practices adopted of course vary widely with the species present, the environmental conditions of the site and also with the end purpose of the forest or plantation. In plantations for pulpwood production for example, carbon storage can be made more effective by increasing productivity and shortening the rotation cycle, which can be obtained with a careful selection of species, management practices and possibly selecting a productive soil. It has to be considered though, that these practices to boost regeneration or increase productivity involve additional costs and the use of fertilisers can have negative externalities such as leaching and contamination of water resources. New plantations Plantations of productive species, including mono-specific and industrial plantations, can satisfy the requirements of the timber industry and also act as useful carbon sinks. The establishment of these kinds of plantations should aim at replacing existing low productivity vegetated land. In order to face the occurrence of extreme phenomena, likely to be brought about by climate change, it is important to select carefully the species needed according to the soil conditions. In some cases the right selection can even bring about an amelioration of extreme soil conditions allowing the planting of other species too. For example, on sites characterised by highly permeable soil, typical pioneer species should be utilised, being more resistant they have a better chance of survival and also they play a fundamental role in soil organic matter build-up. The accumulation of organic matter will improve the other soil factors, thus rendering the soil conditions less harsh for future plantations: better structure, improved nutrient balance, more water retention, more organisms ensuring nutrient cycling and good porosity. Shifting species Because of modified environmental conditions due to the predicted change in climate, there seems to be a tendency to northward shifting of species. In establishing a commercial plantation and a potential carbon sink it would be useful to predict the expected shift and select the best suited species in order to maximise both productivity and carbon sequestering ability. The same applies to increased water stress due to climatic change favouring a shift towards droughtresistant species. It also needs to be pointed out that with the climate change, species might become more susceptible to pest outbreaks, which should be taken into consideration when selecting the species for a plantation (Lashof et al., 1999). Increasing fire-prevention measures PE 322.353 18 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks Intensifying of forest fire prevention measures is essential to prevent first of all release of stored carbon as CO2 emissions, maintaining soil cover, maintaining the effectiveness of the carbon sink, and finally to prevent economic loss. An increase in the incidence of fires is to be expected in those zones where the climate is likely to become drier and also in areas of substantial population increase. However, Lahsof and Hare (1999) point out that fire suppression could produce a real increase in biospheric carbon stocks but the accumulation of fuel could lead to potentially even more dangerous fires. They also note that the emissions released during natural forest fires should be accounted for to the same extent that fire suppression is allowed to generate carbon credits. Replacement of fossil fuels with wood fuels A potentially very rewarding practice to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases could be the shift towards the utilisation of biomass energy instead of fossil fuel combustion. The CO2 released from the combustion of biomass fuels is cycled back to forest biomass through photosynthesis. Short rotation woody crops have great potential in the production of greener fuels. Conversely, long rotation species could be utilised on less fertile soils and be utilised for durable timber products locking carbon in biomass for longer periods. Even if the measures described reflect good management practices and help sequestering relatively large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere, it is beyond doubt that it is only a temporary measure and they can only delay important ecological consequences. These can only be prevented by devising a solution for permanent storage of the extra carbon present in the atmosphere (Papadopol, 2002). 4. Recommendations As remarked in previous paragraphs, the inclusion of carbon sinks in the Kyoto Protocol can help the parties meet their agreed targets in a cost-effective manner and can also buy precious time to develop valid technologies in order to achieve a serious cut-down in emissions. However, seeing the temporary character of this measure, a good framework of policies and measures has to be adopted in order to encourage an increase in energy-use efficiency and serious curtailment of CO2 emissions. The net emissions from land use changes are expected to remain constant, but the emissions from fossil fuel burning are expected to further increase according to development of the world population. Although some fossil-fuel resources will be depleted in the next century, coal will be available for centuries. Besides, since the emissions of CO2 are higher in solid fossil fuels compared to emissions produced by liquid and gaseous fuels, a switch to coal due to shortages in oil or natural gas would lead to an even more rapid increase in emissions of CO2. In order to stabilise the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere at safe levels, a cut of approximately 30 % of the current emissions is necessary. This objective can be achieved through energy-efficiency measures and the utilisation of carbon neutral energy sources, namely nuclear and solar energy. However, because of safety and policy 19 PE 322.353 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks barriers nuclear energy systems are limited to very few applications and to offset fossil-fuel use only, solar energy should be considered. In order to achieve efficiency a lot of potential lies in the residential building and transportation sectors. While the means to achieve efficiency in residential building sectors exist, by reducing heat loss and utilising solar energy, effective means to encourage public transport to decrease inefficient private transport have not yet been devised. The efficiency of energy conversion can be improved by the establishment of combined heat and power plants. By solar energy, is meant both direct solar radiation and also indirect, e.g. solar energy stored in biomass as chemical energy, or in wind as kinetic energy. In particular, biofuels have great potential to substitute fossil fuels in almost every application. Sources of biofuels are currently residues from agriculture and forestry. The limitations to the implementation of measures to reduce the emissions of CO2 are mainly of an economic nature. This is because traditional fossil fuels have prices that make investment in energy efficiency measures not rational from an economic point of view, seeing as they do not yield acceptable payback times. Considering the potential danger of climatic change, policy actions are necessary and one of the most effective ways of encouraging a switch to carbon neutral fuels or investment in energy-efficiency measures would be to increase the price of fossil fuels. This can be done through a carbon tax or, indeed, through the implementation of an emissions trading scheme. This would internalise the costs of the negative externalities associated to the emissions of CO2 and encourage the development of a more efficient energy economy (Spitzer, 1998). In any case, as the inclusion of carbon sinks have positive side effects, such as improved biodiversity (except in situations where biologically diverse non-forest ecosystems are replaced by single-species plantations), prevention of soil erosion and salinisation (World Resource Institute, 2002 and IPCC, 2001b), policies have to be introduced that encourage the adoption of good forestry practices to gain the maximum benefits for any one forestry project. Studies by the Finnish Consulting Services in Sustainable Forestry and Environment (Indufor) underline the close link between the verification of carbon sinks and sustainable forest management, which could offer interesting ideas for devising appropriate options to promote the establishment of quality carbon sinks. The requisites to be awarded the certificate of sustainable forest management are not geared to improve the carbon uptake, but generally speaking these practices can increase the sequestration potential and thus have improved sink activity as a ‘byproduct’. For example, some of this certification calls for diminished heavy soil preparation methods, which lower the emissions of soil carbon during regeneration and drainage. In other cases, if they do not promote the carbon sequestration in soils they are at least carbon-neutral. Certification of sustainable management is currently widely practised and expanding. Most national schemes are implemented following two international frameworks: the Forest Stewardship Council and the Pan-European Forest Certification. At the moment most of the valid forest management certificates have been issued in Europe, with 30 % of the certified forests found in the Nordic countries. Certification of carbon sequestration in forests and sustainable forest management have similar elements and combining them could be a possible way of improving cost efficiency. PE 322.353 20 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks There are three elements in which sustainable forest management could contribute to the certification of carbon sequestration. First of all, as sustainable forest management is a longterm concept, it can contribute to ensuring the permanency of the carbon sink. Secondly, in order to be awarded the certificate, a forest manager has to have a well-devised management plan, which involves the identification of the social and environmental impacts of the project carried out, which is also useful in keeping track of the impact of the sink on the carbon balance. Finally, forest monitoring systems needed for a sustainable management strategy could also provide the technical capacities to measure changes in the carbon stock. This shows how the qualitative criteria in carbon verification can be met, so that carbon sink assessment only requires measurements of the carbon stock. If carbon sequestration is considered as one of the outputs of forest management, and if revenue is obtained for the carbon off-sets, then forest managers would have a further incentive to obtain sustainable forest management certificates with all the consequent positive by-products. This system would provide a major boost to cost efficiency (Indufor, 2001). 5. Conclusions Since the Rio Earth Summit (1992), 10 years have passed in the process of negotiation and in the meantime the serious problem of climate change may have worsened. Moreover, the US failed to participate in the protocol and, being the emitter of more than 25 % of all emissions, this represents a serious limitation to the effectiveness of the protocol (Moreira da Silva, 2002). In the meantime, the Marrakesh Accords have been signed and every provision of the Bonn agreements has been turned into legal text. A compliance system has been established and the flexibility mechanisms have been accepted. Besides, a special package for least developed countries that are vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change has been adopted, in order to provide the resources and techniques to adapt their fragile economies to the effects of climate change (European Commission, 2001). The Kyoto Protocol with all its defects and uncertainties represents a positive achievement. Climate change is a global problem and it is remarkable that with exceptions the problem has been recognised and that a global effort has been initiated. Carbon sinks and sources have been included, and the way they are treated reflects the positions and interests of the different countries involved. In general, the system devised is not optimal but represents a first step (Schlamadinger et al., 2000). The protocol is a good starting point, although the inclusion of carbon sinks certainly weakens its effectiveness. Indeed, the reduction obtained with carbon sinks would lack the permanence of a serious cut-down in emissions, but they can help in meeting the agreed targets in the first commitment period, considering the little time available. Nevertheless, Lashof and Hare (1999) believe that in order to stabilise the atmospheric greenhouse gases concentration at safe levels both tight limits on total fossil fuels combustion and effective management of biotic carbon stocks are necessary. Moreover, they underline that technological development must not be undermined by the utilisation of carbon sinks to meet the targets agreed upon. It has to be said that numerous authors agree in deploring the fact that the Marrakesh Accords further weakened the Kyoto Protocol. Athanasiou and Baer (2001) go as far as defining the accords as a dilution to the Bonn compromise to the Kyoto Protocol. Similarly, according to an HWWA discussion paper (2001), the international climate policy regime is strong from an 21 PE 322.353 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks institutional point of view but weak concerning the emissions targets that are likely not to go beyond business-as-usual for the countries with commitments (Michaelowa, 2001). However, the result obtained is a great achievement because if the Kyoto Protocol was completely dismissed another considerable period of time, possibly another decade would have been necessary to negotiate another protocol. This alternative would have been very much worse. It is important also from a symbolic point of view because for the first time a serious global problem has been approached through a global effort (Moreira da Silva, 2002) Secondly, and most importantly carbon will have a price and this is extremely significant because it is going to change radically the way energy is produced and consumed, thus making an impact on the way consumers, corporations, governments and multilateral institutions address energy issues (Athanasiou et al., 2001). From now on a carbon economy has been created and the externalities associated with global warming have to be internalised. This strongly reflects the principle of the ‘polluters pay’, hopefully creating a market situation where the winners will be those able to produce the same product using cleaner technologies (Moreira da Silva, 2002). Another positive point is that a coalition has been created between the EU and the G77, which, together with the environmental NGOs, has assumed a central position in the global environmental debate. This coalition is still rather weak as demonstrated by the fact that they could not prevent the weakening of the Kyoto Protocol, but it was strong enough at least to prevent the US from influencing heavily in the negotiations. It is a very significant coalition that will bring the issue of climate change and sustainable development to the fore in international politics. This is very positive and important especially when the issue of North/South equity is assuming enormous importance and with the Johannesburg Summit on Sustainable Development taking place soon (August 2002). Everything considered, including the concessions made to the gang of four in order not to lose their participation, the Marrakesh Accords still represent a very significant achievement especially considering the international situation after the terrorist attacks of 11 September. Despite the unsettled international situation, the anti-terrorist coalition, the Palestine crisis, this first climate treaty, despite its weaknesses, is a step forward for democratic, multilateral environmental governance. PE 322.353 22 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks 6. Bibliography Athanasiou, T. and Baer, P., (2001), ‘Climate change after Marrakesh: Should environmentalists still support the Kyoto Protocol?’ Foreign policy in focus discussion paper. http://www.fpif.org/papers/marrakech.html Balasini, M. (2001), ‘The Kyoto Protocol and carbon sinks’, European Parliament, Directorate-General for Research, Luxembourg. Dessai, S. (2001), ‘The climate regime from The Hague to Marrakesh: Saving or sinking the Kyoto Protocol?’, Working Paper 12, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/wp12.pdf European Commission (2001), ‘Climate change: COP 7 — Marrakesh’, Final report. http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/Marrakech_report.pdf Ford, J. (2002), ‘Marrakesh — COP 7 October to November 2001 — Summary and discussion of the proceedings’, ECI, Oxford. Indufor, Finnish Consulting Services in Sustainable Forestry and Environment (2001), ‘Assessing forest-based carbon sinks in the Kyoto Protocol: Forest management and carbon sequestration’, Discussion Paper 2. http://www.vn.fi/ktm/eng/climate/forest_manag.pdf IPCC (2000), ‘Special report on land use, land-use change and forestry’, Watson, R. T., Noble, I. R., Bolin, B., Ravindranath, N. H., Verardo D. J., and Dokken, D. J., report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC (2001a), ‘Climate change 2001: The scientific basis’, J. T. Houghton et al., report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC (2001b), ‘Climate change 2001: Mitigation’, B. Metz et al., report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Langrock, T. (2001), ‘The sinks controversy’, http://www.wupperinst.org/sinks-controversy.pdf Lashof, D. and Hare, B. (1999), ‘The role of biotic carbon stocks in stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at safe levels’, in Environmental science and policy 2: 101–109. Mahony, H. (2002), ‘The European Union ratifies the Kyoto Protocol’, in EU observer. http://www.euobserver.com/index.phtml?aid=6496&sid=9 Michaelowa, A. (2001), ‘Rio, Kyoto, Marrakesh — Ground rules for the global climate policy regime’, Hamburgisches Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv (HWWA) Discussion paper 152. Moreira da Silva, J. (2002), ‘Report on the proposal for a Council decision concerning the conclusion, on behalf of the European Community, of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the joint fulfilment of commitments thereunder’, (COM(2001) 579 — C5-0019/2002 — 2001/0248 (CNS)) Final A5-0025/2002 European Parliament. Papadopol, C. S., (14 March 2002) Climate change mitigation: Are there any forestry options? Ontario Forest Research Institute, Ontario, Canada. http://www.eco-web.com/cgi-local/sfc?a=editorial/index.html&b=editorial/05934-03.html 23 PE 322.353 in Oxford energy forum. Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks Schlamadinger, B. and Marland, G. (2000), Land use and global climate change: Forests, land management and the Kyoto Protocol, Pew Centre on Global Climate Change. http://www.pewclimate.org/projects/land_use.pdf Sohngen, B., Mendelsohn, R. and Sedjo, R. (1998), ‘The effectiveness of forest carbon sequestration strategies with system-wide adjustments’, report by the World Bank. http://www.worldbank.org/research/abcde/washington_11/pdfs/sohngen.pdf Spitzer, J. (1998), ‘Reduction of CO2 emissions through energy substitution’, in Climate change impact on agriculture and forestry, European Commission, Peter, D., Maracchi, G., Ghazi, A., Brussels. Taylor, J. M. (2002), Marrakesh climate talks: Heavy on rhetoric, low on news. http://www.heartland.org/environment/jan02/marrakech.htm Tipper, R. (1998), ‘Mitigation of greenhouse gases emissions by forestry: a review of technical, economic and policy concepts’, in Climate change impact on agriculture and forestry, European Commission, Peter, D., Maracchi, G., Ghazi, A., Brussels. World Resource Institute, 13 March 2002. http://www.wri.org/climate/carboncy.html World Resource Institute, 13 March 2002. http://www.wri.org/climate/mitigat.html PE 322.353 24 Global Climate change Policy: The Role of Carbon Sinks Full list of ‘Environment’ briefings No and date Title ENVI 509, 07/2002 On the Results of the Workshop of 8 November 2001 on 'Effluent Charging Systems in the EU Member States' Languages EN ENVI 508, 06/2002 EU enlargement and pharmaceuticals: Enlargement implications in terms of parallel trade EN ENVI 507, 03/2002 EU climate change policy: Towards the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol EN ENVI 506, 02/2002 Protection of the Baltic Sea in view of enlargement EN ENVI 505, 01/2002 Sustainable development and Community environment policy FR, EN ENVI 504, 10/2001 Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) EN ENVI 503, 09/2001 EU chemicals policy EN ENVI 502, 07/2001 The environmental situation in Albania and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia: A short overview EN ENVI 501, 01/2000 Environment and energy: Challenges of enlargement EN These documents are all available in print: Nicole Reiser Fax (352) 4300-20016 and also on: Intranet: http://www.europarl.ep.ec/studies/default.htm 25 PE 322.353