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2015 6th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology Volume 84 of IPCBEE (2015) DOI: 10.7763/IPCBEE. 2015. V84. 9 Study on Changing for Coastal Land Resource Utilization under Climate Change in Taiwan with Cellular Automation Ke-Chin Yen 1 , Hsuan-Lin Chen 1 and Szu-Hua Wang 2 1 2 Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Chunghua University, Hsinchu City, Taiwan Department of Urban Affairs and Environment Planning, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan Abstract. Global climate change is one of hot issues in recent years. The most direct impact is the change of coastal environment due to climate change, which also results in urban problems relatively. Moreover, land utilization change not only is a subject of traditional “People – Land” theory in geography for research, but also is associated closely with global environmental change and sustainable development, which are two contemporary research trends. Currently, strategy adjustment, environmental vulnerability and watershed impact are mostly concentrated for the research with respect to impact of climate change on coastal land resource utilization. There are lesser studies about spatial dynamic simulation situations for climate change. In the past, climate change trend ideas were lesser included in land utilization regulations, and scholars also seldom to employ cellular automation (CA) theory in combination with geographic information system for spatial dynamic simulation. For the research key points concluded from above discussion, developments of costal resource utilization in Taoyuan, Hsinchu and Miaoli regions differ with each other. The utilization situations and resulted impacts are also different. Climate change impact, costal living environments and socio-economic conditions related backgrounds are gathered. Ecological energy system is used to construct land resource utilization change ecological energy system equation for grid transformation and spatial analysis simulation. Finally, climate change impact situation is added to simulate impact level for evolution rule to approximate actual change. The future land resource utilization change situations in Taoyuan, Hsinchu and Miaoli and the impact under climate change are predicted as references for future management and resource planning. Keywords: Climate change, land resource utilization, cellular automation, geographic information system. 1. Introduction Global climate change is a hot topic in recent years, the most relevant is the climate change caused by the impact of changes in the coastal environment generated retrospect, the media plays an important coastal marine resources acquired, along with scientific and technological progress and economic development, regardless of population growth reduction, changes in the industry, and even transportation improvements, can make use of resources by the impact of land [1]. Land use change as "environmental changes" important issues, to understand driving forces of land use changes in underlying resources (Driving Forces) is the core of the current study "Land use change". Climate changes currently affecting the coastal land-use studies, and more to explore land use climate change and coastal areas, focusing on adaptation strategies at home and abroad in the past to explore the city and the coast, much of the marine environment of information management systems, resource utilization assessments to ecologically sustainable growth-oriented applications, wetland conservation and urban and coastal-oriented dependencies, etc., although a small part of the coast of research space and land use / utilization factor. Scholars also less use of cellular automata (Cellular automata, CA) combined with geographic information system (Geographic Information System, GIS) spatial dynamics simulation. In addition, informed by the relevant literature, geography information Corresponding author. Tel.: + 886-35186655; fax: +886-35186677. E-mail address: [email protected]. 48 system in dealing with the complexity of the problem space has its difficulty [2]. Mathematical models tend to assume the traditional market data with integrity, much more expensive than static, dynamic variables, but to make a more complex mathematical model [3], [4]. With respect to the cellular automata, is able to solve complex mathematical methods can’t be used or are currently integrate different areas of parametric analysis, therefore the dynamic simulation of space-related issues, mostly the result of cellular automata combining geographic information systems. Following the above argument of "cellular automata model to investigate climate change on coastal land resources utilization of research" in the title, to explore the development of Tao-Zhumiao coast, due to the use of sensitive coastal environment and affect the characteristics and circumstances vary, in 2012 on land survey data as the starting year 2030 as the target year, according to time, location and climate change on coastal land resource use situation, investigate the specific effects due to climate change Tao-Zhumiao coast of urban land resources use development. Collect climate change impacts, coastal urban environment, land resources utilization and socio-economic conditions of humanities background, construct Tao-Zhumiao coastal flow system. The use of cellular automata grid characteristics adjustment, simulated 2030 Changes in land resource utilization may scenario. Geographical information systems and cellular automata, simulation results of the steady state use of land resources and climate change under, as the future Tao-Zhumiao Land Management and Resource Planning reference. 2. Methodology 2.1. Emergy Analysis Emergy analysis methods will help clarify the coast of the natural environment, the productive use of land resources and the environment, the relations between the environment, in-depth understanding of ecological economics mutualism between people and the environment is a positive benefit [5]. Among them, the natural environment, driven by the sun covers Ocean and land systems, and solar energy and other natural ecosystems drive; the production environment by using solar-powered, and human intervention resulting from the primary use of the system; the environment by human use of land resources activity patterns derived form different use [6]-[8]. Odum Emergy concept studies through to the actual macro perspective simplify complex systems architecture complete model, taking into consideration the relationship between energy flow transformation mathematical equations, in order to facilitate the subsequent simulation [9]. 2.2. Climate Change Scenario Simulation Climate Change on the use of coastal land resources will cause interference and influence, so coastal areas of land resources use change analysis model should include the interaction of the natural environment, ecological environment and human activities in various factors. According to relevant studies have shown that sudden changes in the coastal areas of future climate impact is most severe, primarily as rising sea levels, intense rainfall and typhoon intensity and changes of the three, three climate change scenarios simulate this, as amended coastal resources and land use change analysis mode adjustment factor based on cellular automata influence, as shown in Table 1 scenario simulation type. 3. Integrated Coastal Land Resources Utilization Change Model 3.1. Change Model for Coastal Land Resource Utilization Coastal systems use analog, as a continuation of "Coastal Land Resources Utilization Study Impact of Changes" has been constructed by Emergy analysis model and ArcGIS 9.3 Space Coast land resource utilization based on the analysis, and then incorporated into the climate change impact factor, conduct various factors and changes in use of land resources information integration. Followed by coastal land resources for space utilization levels of derivation and construction changes mode, the Research and Analysis under different scenarios of climate changes, coastal land resource use spatial dynamic model, shown in Fig. 1. 49 Fig. 1: Coastal land resource utilization change model chart 3.2. The Coastal Land Resources by Energy System Model Emergy analysis by establishing energy system model diagram, a source of energy within the simulation study area project encompasses content is divided into three parts: the first is an external driving force: renewable resources, non-renewable resources, such as input and output; the second study components within the scope of the composition; the third is an internal process of the constituent components of the interaction with the outside world. Fig. 2: Coastal land resources energy system factor graph 3.3. The Cellular Automata (CA) Simulation The coastal land resource use into the grid unit 500m * 500m of land resources within the space unit uses for natural areas, the primary use of regional and urban areas built, it will be treated as an ecosystem in each grid unit, the establishment of the coast as a whole system architecture, can conduct various variables calculated value. Depending on the relationship between flow and related documents, such as data collection, definition of ecosystem services of a land resource use its definition. Analytical methods for the concept to the coast, to assess the function of the variables can be quantified, and convert them to a common unit of solar energy value, in order to facilitate the subsequent analysis and comparison. Obtained from the use of 50 resources by land area map and Energy, the use of spatial analysis methods ArcGIS 9.3 overlay calculation (Raster Calculator), and the establishment of land resources utilization and energy value chart 2012 figure, and then use ArcGIS 9.3 grid tools calculated that in 2018, 2024 and 2030 and four area can value changes, which analyze the results, as in Fig. 3. Fig. 3: Coastal land resource utilization change model by CA 3.4. Climate Change Scenarios Simulation Climate Change on the use of coastal land resources will cause interference and influence, and therefore changes in coastal land resource utilization analysis model should include the interaction of the natural environment, ecological environment and human activities all factors which affect the natural environment of the relevant factors, the study will be incorporated climate change factor. According to the relevant studies have shown the impact of future climate sudden change for the most dramatic coast, primarily to rising sea levels, intense rainfall, simulated two climate change scenarios, as amended coastal land resources use change analysis mode. Develop scenarios in Table 1 below. Table 1: Changes in coastal land resource utilization simulation scenarios table Situations and description R situational Climate change scenarios Sea-level rise leading to coastal flooding, flooding low-lying areas S situational Intense rainfall leading to increased investment environment Coastal land resources use change scenarios A situational B situational Coastal land patterns to reduce Reduce regional assets AR situation BR situation When the sea water intrusion, flooding lowlying areas to reduce the lead to coastal land, land patterns change. Saltwater intrusion, flooding low-lying areas affected asset stocks. AS situation Increase in environmental investment, in tandem with the length of time to devote to make coastal land gradually increase or decrease. BS situation Increase investment environment, making coastal land decreased, affecting the amount of assets, but also to change the scope of the population lives. 4. Tao-Zhumiao Coastal Land Resource Utilization Change Empirical research Tao-Zhumiao coast range, totaling 15 coastal towns urban administrative area. Coastal land use change from resource issues in a three-facing coastal area of land resources utilization change, changes in coastal land use types and spatial distribution of resources, the coastal land-use types and structural transformation of resources, land resources in the area to understand the differences between the 51 coast and the use of spatial distribution. The spatial extent of Tao-Zhumiao coast, for the sake of consistency of spatial resolution map data, set 500m*500m. Ecologists use the development of the energy value Odum [10] concepts and methods to explore the Tao-Zhumiao coastal land resources utilization system works, the mutual relationship between the natural and the primary energy and material use system provided; then through the land survey used as space dynamic simulation based land use survey was conducted in 2012, and in 2030 cellular automata simulation results of land resources use change and climate change in the steady state, as a future reference to regional policy. 4.1. Emergy Systems Modeling The study area is a coastal land resource use, can be divided into three main subsystems: including natural areas, the primary use of regional and urban areas. Natural resources include land use land use (Ln), the primary use of the land (La), Urban Land (Lu); assets section contains important natural areas of biological (B), the primary use of the asset (Aa), metropolitan area assets (Au) and urban population (Pu). Inflow of foreign system mainly consists of environmental inputs (E), non-renewable energy (N), the population moved to (P) and the use of renewable energy is not (Rn.Ra.Ru), etc., in mathematics, the energy system model system Table 2. the equation for the description: Table 2: Tao- Zhumiao coast equation model system table Natural area systems Rn:environmental remainder of natural area B:natural biomass Ln:Land area of natural resource use areas The primary use of the system Ra:environmental remainder of agricultural area Aa:The primary use of the asset La:Primary area of land resource use areas Urban area systems Ru:environmental remainder of urban area Au:urban asset Lu:Urban area of land resource areas Pu:urban population 4.2. The Simulation Results The area is decreasing natural areas, in order to reduce the large Tao-Zhu region, the land mostly with the economic development needs, developed into farmland or Urban building sites; therefore it Tao-Zhu coast in 2012 Numerical began a slow decline, along with poly or economy of the facilities, the development of behavioral impact, but also because of the economic development of the natural land and lead to inappropriate development, the growing influence of the natural areas, the biomass to 2022 after the reduction of land with natural energy sources, land has been unable to supply the energy needs of the natural 52 areas of biological, ecological habitat indirectly caused the extinction of biological migration, etc., caused by biomass thus reducing natural areas; but by 2028 may be due to the demand for ecological planning, reduction of natural land development, biomass extinction, migration has become increasingly moderate impact, resulting in a gradual return to the ecological balance of biological activity. 4.2.1. AR situation AR to investigate the relationship between changes in urban land for the next candidate from environmental changes, therefore, the natural land, the primary use of land and urban land included in the discussion of climate change in accordance with the national communication report noted that if the sea level rises one meter, the loss of 272 square feet kilometers of land is calculated, so this study will naturally land (k110) with the primary use of the land (k208) coefficient reduction to 2.72E + 08 is estimated to get under climate change, coastal land resources for Tao-Zhumiao 2030 the use of the land area the impact of changes, the variables and the results are shown in Fig. 4-1. After AR simulation results, when the terms of the land area of the city in 2030 under a steady state, which changes with the development of urban areas and facilities assets, resulting in its display increases every year, and then into the factors affecting climate change, coastal flooding in low-lying areas flooded, began to suppress land development, resulting in a gradual slow Tao-Zhumiao coastal land decreased gradually changing patterns of urban land, the coastal city has been gradually moving inward, although more slowly show the obvious, but it has been gradually building built in low-lying areas to avoid to the environment, so that changes in the climate impact of each area will not be too great. 4.2.2. BR situation BR to investigate Environmental Changes from candidate city for the relationship of assets changes, so will Biological heavy use of primary assets, assets and urban population into discussions conducted for seawater intrusion, Changes of assets affect the storage capacity of the flooded low-lying areas. To Climate Change National Communications report noted species in order to reduce the estimated 30% do, so this study biological heavy impairment (k103) coefficient of variation of 30%, the primary use of the asset increment (k202) to the fragile environment of the right to the ground and re-calculating the ratio of 0.596 urban assets increment coefficient (Ru part) (k302) vulnerability to man-made facilities to calculate the weight ratio of 0.328, out of the system into a population factor (k307) socio-economic vulnerability to weight ratio of 0.125 calculation, simulation results and performance in Fig4-2. BR simulation results, when Urban under steady state assets in 2030, showing an increase state, but after adding the impact of climate changes in the environment, leading to saltwater intrusion, flooding low-lying areas, causing land Taozhu Miao region of decreasing situation, thereby also affecting all the assets of the region between the storage capacity for low-lying areas near the river banks range, sea, etc., the amount of municipal assets gradually migrate along with their more urban areas to reduce the economic development needs of Urban and into the primary use of the land or, relations between the two also influence each other. Under steady-state in 2012 Under the 2030 Climate Change Under steady-state in 2012 Under the 2030 Climate Change 1.AR situational simulation 2.BR situational simulation Fig. 4: AR and BR situational simulation 4.2.3. AS situation 53 Due to the impact of climate changes, environmental investment also increased, with the length of time to devote to make the land produce changes in the relationship between the coast Tao-Zhumiao incorporate impact analysis to explore the natural environment and the primary use of the land and inputs, and natural land to the city land coefficient (k110) and the primary use of land converted to urban land coefficient (k208) with its reduction of 2.72E + 08 for the estimated impact of environmental factors into the metropolitan area (k301) to coastal vulnerability index (CVI) 0.517 * natural land with the primary land calculation, and the results are shown in Fig5-1. AS simulation results, when the steady state Tao-Zhumiao Coast 2030 showing an increase of urban land, but the environment into increments, making Tao-Zhumiao coastal land resource utilization decreased, although slowly reduced extent, may be due to the original storage capacity provide urban environment due to climate change should supply it, but in the later stages of climate change may exacerbate the impact of the increase will continue, to when the original assets may not load its supply, resulting in reduction of its assets. 4.2.4. BS situation With climate change, the report noted that the national communications species will be reduced by 30%, so the Biological heavy impairment (k103) with 30% doing estimates, natural land to urban land coefficient (k110) and the primary use of land converted to urban land coefficient (k208) to the vulnerability of the right environment to where weight ratio 0.596 computing; environmental inputs influence coefficient metropolitan area of (k301) Taiwan coastal vulnerability index (CVI) of 0.517 estimated to vulnerability index (CVI) 0.517 * natural lands and primary land calculate that; urban assets increment coefficient (Ru part) (k302) artificially facility vulnerability weight ratio of 0.328 calculated outside the system into a population factor (k307) socio-economic vulnerability to weight ratio of 0.125 calculation, simulation results shown in Fig5-2. Under steady-state in 2012 Under the 2030 Climate Change Under steady-state in 2012 1.AS situational simulation Under the 2030 Climate Change 2.BS situational simulation Fig. 5: BS situational simulation BS simulation results, when the steady state in 2030 are showing an increasing trend of urban assets, but after joining the climate change simulation, we can see Tao-Zhumiao coastal environmental changes due to climate, over time, increased investment environment, making Tao-Zhumiao coastal land fast diminishing resource utilization, for the impact of land assets also increases, relative assets and changes also affect the population. So, if you want to make for the future of urban development in Taozhu Miao coast, low-lying areas should be avoided to prevent the counterattack the environment, but also the need for effective management of the land-use planning. 5. Conclusions Coastal development between Urban and neighboring relations closely tie him for discussing the interaction between them, the energy flow and how the space coast and changes in the use of land resources to the different levels of thinking - Coast view cut, this study Tao-Zhumiao coastal development of land resource use changes affect the theme analysis investigate the effects of the use of coastal land around Urban caused by the use of resources, what changes at different times of energy accumulation, flow characteristics, to assess the overall effectiveness of coastal land resource use related construction. 54 Urban areas in terms of assets, from 2014 to 2020 there is a rapid increase in the trend of the development of urban areas by the economic benefits brought to obtain benefits, thus making the Urban assets increased; in Urban area for years, as the Urban has accumulated assets and the activities of demand, resulting in all the land supply for its use, land increases due to the primary use of the land area and the nature of the release of land available. As for the Urban population, it may be within the region increased from natural increase social and moved, move out and other effects, showing slow growth, but also due to the impact Urban assets increased, and therefore enhance the surrounding metropolitan area population Rally attracts population inflows. 6. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and Chung Hua University for financially supporting this research under Contract No. MOST 1032410-H-216-006. 7. References [1] Huang, S. L., 2004, Urban Ecological Economy and Energy, Taipei: Jane's Bookstore. [2] Wagner, D. F., 1997. Cellular automata and geographic information systems. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 24:219-234. [3] Silva, E. A. and Clarke, K. C., 2005. Complexity, Emergence and cellular automata Urban Models:Lessons Learned from Applying SLEUTH to Two Portuguese Metropolitan Areas, European Planning Studies, 13(1):93115. 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