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The Ground-Level Ozone-Related Social Welfare Impact of Climate Change Authors: *Jin Huang, Ph.D. Anna Belova, Ph.D. Jonathan Dorn, Ph.D. Frank Divita, Ph.D. *All authors are from Abt Associates and Jin Huang is the corresponding author ([email protected]). Selected Poster prepared for presentation at the 2015 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association and Western Agricultural Economics Association Joint Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA, July 26-28 Copyright 2015 by Abt Associates Inc. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies. The Ground-Level Ozone-Related Social Welfare Impact of Climate Change Jin 1* Huang, Anna 1 Belova, 1 Abt Abstract Background: Future climate change may result in increased ground-level ozone and associated social welfare impacts. In the U.S. these impacts include increased public health burden of ozone exposure, and increased abatement costs and health benefits associated with policy intervention of Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). Method: We assess the social welfare impacts of predicted climate change-induced increases in ozone levels. Using air quality modeling results from seven different climate change scenarios and ozone monitoring data, we classify U.S. areas in terms of whether ozone concentrations are below or above the current Ozone NAAQS of 75ppb. In the areas that are expected to be in compliance with the Ozone NAAQS under the considered climate change scenarios, the increased public health burden represents the social cost of climate change. For areas that are in violation, climate change impacts manifest as additional health benefits (due to increased abatement effort) and additional abatement costs. Results: Under 5 (out of 7 models), we find significantly increased public health burden and social cost of ozone exposure due to climate change, even with O3 NAAQS protectiveness ($0.2-$6.3 billion). Meanwhile, implementation of additional control measures could cost between $0.6 and $1.3 billion. The estimated ranges are driven by the modeling choices underlying projections of climate change, air quality, and population. Policy Implication: Our paper highlights the nexus between climate change and air quality management policy. With climate change, the ozone NAAQS could confer additional social benefit to the public. The increased cost of attaining the ozone NAAQS adds to the social cost of climate change; yet, this cost appears to be much lower than the social cost arising from the elevated health risks due to climate change-related increases in ozone exposure below the ozone standard. Jonathan 1 Dorn, and Frank 1 Divita Associates, Inc. Method to Classify Types of Areas by Violation Status Figure 2: Social Costs of Climate Change (Billion 2010 $) Objectives Figure 1: Types of Areas by Violation Status Conclusion and Discussion Method Overview Under 4 (out of 7 models), we find significantly increased public health burden and social cost of ozone exposure due to climate change, even with O3 NAAQS protectiveness, using point estimate of health outcomes (mortality and morbidity). Overall, the social cost without NAAQS are much higher than that with NAAQS even if we account for extra abatement cost. The benefits of the O3 NAAQS as well as the abatement costs will increase with Climate change. Additional benefits brought by NAAQS ranges from $0 to $7 billion across the seven climate-air models. Additional abatement costs range from $0.6 to $1.3 billion which account for 3% to 37% of total social costs. Control cost appears to be lower than the social cost associated with health damage occurred below the ozone standard. Climate change will exacerbate the challenges to comply with O3 NAAQS in areas that are already struggling with attainment. *Corresponding author: Jin Huang Abt Associates, Inc. 4550 Montgomery Avenue Bethesda, MD 20814 301-347-5571