Download PDF

The Ground-Level Ozone-Related Social Welfare Impact of Climate Change
Authors:
*Jin Huang, Ph.D.
Anna Belova, Ph.D.
Jonathan Dorn, Ph.D.
Frank Divita, Ph.D.
*All authors are from Abt Associates and Jin Huang is the corresponding author
([email protected]).
Selected Poster prepared for presentation at the 2015 Agricultural & Applied Economics
Association and Western Agricultural Economics Association Joint Annual Meeting, San
Francisco, CA, July 26-28
Copyright 2015 by Abt Associates Inc. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this
document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all
such copies.
The Ground-Level Ozone-Related Social Welfare
Impact of Climate Change
Jin
1*
Huang,
Anna
1
Belova,
1 Abt
Abstract
Background: Future climate change may result in increased ground-level ozone and associated
social welfare impacts. In the U.S. these impacts include increased public health burden of ozone
exposure, and increased abatement costs and health benefits associated with policy intervention
of Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).
Method: We assess the social welfare impacts of predicted climate change-induced increases in
ozone levels. Using air quality modeling results from seven different climate change scenarios
and ozone monitoring data, we classify U.S. areas in terms of whether ozone concentrations are
below or above the current Ozone NAAQS of 75ppb. In the areas that are expected to be in
compliance with the Ozone NAAQS under the considered climate change scenarios, the
increased public health burden represents the social cost of climate change. For areas that are in
violation, climate change impacts manifest as additional health benefits (due to increased
abatement effort) and additional abatement costs.
Results: Under 5 (out of 7 models), we find significantly increased public health burden and
social cost of ozone exposure due to climate change, even with O3 NAAQS protectiveness
($0.2-$6.3 billion). Meanwhile, implementation of additional control measures could cost between
$0.6 and $1.3 billion. The estimated ranges are driven by the modeling choices underlying
projections of climate change, air quality, and population.
Policy Implication: Our paper highlights the nexus between climate change and air quality
management policy. With climate change, the ozone NAAQS could confer additional social
benefit to the public. The increased cost of attaining the ozone NAAQS adds to the social cost of
climate change; yet, this cost appears to be much lower than the social cost arising from the
elevated health risks due to climate change-related increases in ozone exposure below the
ozone standard.
Jonathan
1
Dorn,
and Frank
1
Divita
Associates, Inc.
Method to Classify Types of
Areas by Violation Status
Figure 2: Social Costs of Climate
Change (Billion 2010 $)
Objectives
Figure 1: Types of Areas by
Violation Status
Conclusion and Discussion
Method Overview
 Under 4 (out of 7 models), we find significantly increased public health burden and social
cost of ozone exposure due to climate change, even with O3 NAAQS protectiveness, using
point estimate of health outcomes (mortality and morbidity).
 Overall, the social cost without NAAQS are much higher than that with NAAQS even if we
account for extra abatement cost.
 The benefits of the O3 NAAQS as well as the abatement costs will increase with
Climate change.
 Additional benefits brought by NAAQS ranges from $0 to $7 billion across the seven
climate-air models.
 Additional abatement costs range from $0.6 to $1.3 billion which account for 3% to 37%
of total social costs. Control cost appears to be lower than the social cost associated with
health damage occurred below the ozone standard.
 Climate change will exacerbate the challenges to comply with O3 NAAQS in areas that are
already struggling with attainment.
*Corresponding author: Jin Huang Abt Associates, Inc.
4550 Montgomery Avenue
Bethesda, MD 20814
301-347-5571