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Transcript
An Update on the View of CCS in
the Global Climate Picture
Tim Dixon
1 May 2015
14th CCUS Conference, Pittsburgh
IEA ETP 2014 – A choice of 3 futures
2DS
a vision of a
sustainable energy
system of reduced
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2014
4DS
reflecting pledges by
countries to cut
emissions and boost
energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
6DS
where the world is
now heading with
potentially devastating
results
The 6°C Scenario
Carbon intensity of supply must fall rapidly
The 4DS and 2DS lead to dramatic reductions of the carbon-intensity index: by 15
points in the 4DS and by 64 points in the 2DS by 2050
© OECD/IEA 2014
IV Colloque Hispano-Français, 13 May 2014
3
A transformation of supply and use is needed
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) contributes 14% of total emissions reductions
through 2050 relative to the 6DS
© OECD/IEA 2014
4
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Synthesis Report
2nd November 2014
Copenhagen
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Key Messages
➜
Human influence on the climate system is clear
➜
The more we disrupt our climate, the more we
risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts
➜
We have the means to limit climate change and
build a more prosperous, sustainable future
AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM, AR5 WGIII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been
larger than in the previous three decades
AR5 WGIII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
AR5 SYR SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Sources of emissions
Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions
35%
Energy Sector
24%
Agriculture,
forests and
other land uses
21%
14%
Industry
Transport
6.4%
Building
Sector
2010 GHG emissions
AR5 WGIII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Mitigation Measures
More efficient use of energy
Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy
• Many of these technologies exist today
Improved carbon sinks
• Reduced deforestation and improved forest management
and planting of new forests
• Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
Lifestyle and behavioural changes
AR5 WGIII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
IPCC AR5
SYR
Table 3.2
(2014)
IPCC AR5 WGIII (Mitigation)
Summary report
•
•
Decarbonizing electricity generation is a key component of cost‐effective
mitigation strategies
• Decarbonization happens more rapidly in electricity generation
than in the industry, buildings, and transport sectors
• The share of low‐carbon electricity supply (incl CCS)
increases from 30% to more than 80 % by 2050,
• Fossil fuel power generation without CCS is phased out by 2100.
GHG emissions reduced significantly by:
• Replacing average efficiency coal fired power plants with modern high
efficiency natural gas plants or CHP
• Proviso’s
o Natural gas is available
•
o Emissions from extraction and supply are low or mitigated
Natural gas without CCS is a bridging technology
IPCC AR5 and CCS
•
Importance both for reducing emissions from fossil fuels and also for
combining with bioenergy to take CO2 out of the atmosphere (BECCS
or BioCCS).
•
Removing CCS from the mix will increase mitigation costs by 138% by far the highest increase from any of the technologies analysed
(bioenergy, wind, solar, nuclear) - and may not be able to achieve
450ppm CO2eq (+2C)
“Note that many models cannot reach concentrations of about 450
ppm CO2eq by 2100 in the absence of CCS“.
•
•
So we really do need CCS in the portfolio of low carbon energy
technologies.
USA and China (and EU)
Including:
Advancing Major
Carbon Capture,
Utilization and Storage
Demonstrations:
Establishment of a major
new carbon storage
project based in China …
and also work together on
a new Enhanced Water
Recovery (EWR) pilot
project….
•
•
USA: 26-28% reduction by 2025; China: reduce from 2030
EU: 40% reduction by 2030
UNFCCC
• COP-20 Lima, Peru
Courtesy COP20 host
UNFCCC
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992)
UNFCCC:
§
COP – Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (195 Parties)
§
ADP – Ad Hoc Working Group Durban Platform for Enhanced Action
Kyoto Protocol (1997: 1st period 2008-2012; 2nd period 2013-2020)
§
CMP – Conference of the Parties serving as a Meeting of the Parties to
the Kyoto Protocol (188 Parties, 33 ‘developed‘ countries)
§
SBSTA – Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice
§
SBI – Subsidiary Body for Implementation
Kyoto Protocol and CCS
•
•
2008 - 2012 (KP 1st Period)
2013 - 2020 (KP 2nd Period)
•
Developed countries:
• CCS included in KP Art 2.1
• IPCC GHG Guidelines 2006 allows CCS to be reported
•
Developing countries:
• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) – Policy mechanism for
rewarding CO2 reduction in developing countries. Project-based
carbon credits.
• > 7,500 projects, 1,500 CERs (Mt CO2e)
o Includes CCS from 2011 (COP-17) Durban
Durban Platform for
Enhanced Action
• New negotiating process established at COP-17 (2011)
(AWG on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action);
• Recognises that current emission pledges inadequate
<2°C
• Process to develop “protocol, another legal instrument or
outcome…with legal force” for all Parties
• Timeline;
ê Process to completed no later than 2015
ê Implemented by 2020
courtesy of IISD/Earth
Negotiations Bulletin
CCS in UNFCCC
Ø 2005 - IPCC SR on CCS
Ø 2005– 2011 CCS in CDM?
Ø
2011 – CCS CDM Abu Dhabi workshop
Ø
2011 - COP-17 - CCS in CDM
Ø 2014 - ADP – TEM on CCS – project focussed
Ø 2014 - COP-20 – CCS Projects Side Event
New Large-scale Carbon Capture
and Storage (CCS) Projects
Operating in the Americas
Tim Dixon, IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme
9th December 2014
UNFCCC Side Event
COP-20, Lima, Peru
How could UNFCCC
mechanisms consider
CCS?
Ellina Levina
© OECD/IEA 2013
Relevant UNFCCC mechanisms
-
mechanisms under the negotiations
agreed
mechanisms
under
implementation
© OECD/IEA 2013
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
INDCs will form the foundation for Parties’ contribution “bottom-up”.
WAYS TO INCLUDE CCS:
n Indicative % of the role CCS could play, based on analysis
n Mt of CO2 captured and stored by 2030, 2040 etc.
n Target % or GW of power generation capacity equipped with CCS
n Policy actions and mechanisms supporting CCS
n Investments in R&D and long-term CCS development
n Industrial CO2 emission policies that encourage CCS
© OECD/IEA 2013
The Green Climate Fund
The Green Climate Fund was established to mobilise funding for developing
countries’ mitigation and adaptation efforts.
WAYS TO INCLUDE CCS:
n Actively highlight the availability of funds for CCS projects
n Potentially include a specific temporary funding window for CCS
n Leverage private sector investments in CCS
© OECD/IEA 2013
Technology Mechanism
The Technology Mechanism aims at enhancing action on technology
development and transfer to support mitigation and adaptation.
WAYS TO INCLUDE CCS:
n Create enabling conditions for CCS deployment through:
l information on CCS that interested countries can use
l inclusion of CCS in technology needs assessments
l assessing regulatory and technical readiness and gaps for CCS deployment
n Broker project financing through:
l international evaluation of CCS projects & international financing partnerships
l linking defined projects with GCF funding opportunities
n Support existing international RD&D cooperation and partnerships by:
l providing information to Parties on these partnerships
l possibly covering costs of developing countries’ participation in such partnerships
l reporting on achievements to the UNFCCC
© OECD/IEA 2013
UNFCCC next steps
•
Out of COP-20 Lima: “Lima Call for Climate Action”
• confirms intentions for ambitious climate agreement at COP-21
• will include: Mitigation, Adaptation, Finance, Technology development
and transfer, Capacity building, Transparency.
• based on Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDCs) –
‘progression beyond current undertakings’
• further ‘technical examination' of high mitigation opportunities’
• Annex has the draft negotiating text for global agreement
•
Further ADP meetings in 2015 (Feb +)
Ø
COP-21 Paris – 30 Nov –11 Dec 2015
CCS and the Financial
Sector
•
Unburnable Carbon = fossil fuel reserves which cannot be
used under a global carbon budget
•
Carbon Bubble = over-valuation of fossil fuel-producing
companies if cannot use all reserves
•
Stranded Assets = the result of above
•
•
•
BP AGM - 16 April 2015
Shareholder Resolution 25:
“3. Low carbon energy R&D and investment strategies.
Investors are interested in BP’s post 2015 plans in these areas, including any
for carbon capture and storage (CCS).”
“BP has promised to be more open about its impact on climate change after 98% of
shareholders backed a resolution calling for greater transparency at the fossil fuel group.
The company committed to publishing more information on a range of issues, including
whether the value of its oil and gas reserves will be damaged by limits on carbon emissions;
its investments in low-carbon technology; the scale of carbon dioxide emissions from its
operations; the linking of executive pay to greenhouse gas reduction; and its lobbying on
climate change. The resolution supported by the BP board came at the end of a three-hour
meeting dominated by a subject that has been largely ignored at such investor gatherings.”
Terry Macalister. The Guardian. Thursday 16 April 2015 19.18 BST
Lobbying and Protests
•
•
•
•
•
http://globalinvestorcoalition.org/
https://www.divestor.org/
http://350.org/
http://gofossilfree.org/
COP-20 Lima “Keep the oil in the soil, and the coal in the hole”
CCS and the Financial
Sector
•
International Energy Agency:
“Not only does CCS serve our climate objectives, but investing in
development and deployment of CCS is an important risk
management (“hedging”) response for companies and governments
who derive significant income from fossil fuels. CCS therefore
promises to preserve the economic value of fossil fuel reserves and
the associated infrastructure in a world undertaking the strong actions
necessary to mitigate climate change.“ (IEA CCS Technology Roadmap 2013
and IEA World Energy Outlook 2012).
•
IPCC AR5: “The availability of CCS would reduce the adverse effects
of mitigation on the value of fossil fuel assets” (IPCC AR5 SYR SPM 2014)
Thank you
Any Questions?