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The feasibility of avoiding future
climate impacts: key results from the
AVOID1 and 2 programmes
Jason A. Lowe, Rachel Warren, Nigel Arnell, Simon Buckle,
Ajay Gambhir and the AVOID network
Further details E-mail [email protected]
Funded by
Overview of AVOID1 and 2
Supported UK’s
international engagement
Informed UK’s position at
international climate
change negotiations
Supported the setting of
the UK’s carbon budgets
• Established in 2009 to provide
tailored scientific information on
feasibility, benefits and side
effects of mitigation
• Synthesises information from a
wide range of sources
• Considered climate science,
impacts and socio-economic
aspects
• AVOID2 began in 2014 to provide
information along the pathway to
Paris and CoP21
AVOID2 approach: Integrated assessment
but not just another IAM
• What are the
characteristics of
potentially dangerous
climate change?
• How much can
mitigation reduce
climate change and
impacts?
• How feasible are
different amounts of
mitigation?
Key result 1: Reprocessing the IPCC WG3
database of IAM emission pathways
The database
does not provide
uniform sampling
of pathways
2020 emissions
of 50 GtCO2eq
cover a wide
range of median
warming
Key result 1: Reprocessing the IPCC WG3
database of IAM emission pathways
450
400
other
350
offshore wind
onshore wind
250
solar CSP
200
solar PV
150
hydro
nuclear
100
biomass w/ CCS
50
biomass w/o CCS
2010
2020
2030
2050
2100
WITCH
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
TIAM-Grantham
WITCH
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
TIAM-Grantham
WITCH
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
TIAM-Grantham
WITCH
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
TIAM-Grantham
WITCH
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
TIAM-Grantham
EJ/year
300
We have led a post
AR5 intercomparison
of emission reduction
feasibility:
Gas w/ CCS
Gas w/o CCS
coal w/ CCS
coal w/o CCS
• TIAM
• WITCH
• MESSAGE
oil w/o CCS
+GAINS for non-CO2
Key result 2: How big is the 2ºC
cumulative carbon budget?
Many earth system processes are
not routinely included in scenario
development,
But AR5 did provide some useful
information
Equilibrium climate
sensitivity remains
very uncertain
Key result 2: How big is the 2ºC
cumulative carbon budget?
Key result 2- How big is the 2ºC
cumulative carbon budget?
Key result 3: First look at new results on
enhanced CO2 removal
Most scenarios
that limit warming
to lower levels
have large BECCs
contribution
Key result 3: First look at new results on
enhanced CO2 removal
Estimated 2100 BECCs potential with no CCS limit in HadGEM2ES
Uses 5% of land area Uses 4% of land area
Excluding GL and ANT Excluding GL and ANT
Uses 18% of land area
Excluding GL and ANT
Key result 3: First look at new results on
enhanced CO2 removal
Estimated•Achieving
2100 BECCs
potential
with the
no CCS
in HadGEM2ES
166
GtC over
21stlimit
Century
appears to be highly challenging.
•The most productive areas globally are the
tropics.
•Biophysical cooling associated with
deforestation may have benefits to
stabilising climate at low levels.
Uses 5% of land area Uses 4% of land area
Excluding GL and ANT Excluding GL and ANT
Uses 18% of land area
Excluding GL and ANT
Key result 4 – How much impact can
we avoid through mitigation?
Water availability
Exposure to river floods
Crop yields
Cooling demand
Coastal flooding
Ocean acidification
J Roff
Key result 4 – How much impact can
we avoid through mitigation?
The AVOID 2 consortium
15/05/2017