Download Towards 2050: Climate Change Research 2014-2020 Informing Transition and Opportunity

Towards2050:ClimateChange
Research2014-2020
InformingTransitionandOpportunity
This is a Discussion Document on Climate Change Research requirements in
the period 2014-2020 including Air Quality research issues. It provides
background for the discussions on the 19th September.
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Contents
Purpose and Background .................................................................................................................... 1
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 1
Context for the 2014-2020 Research Strategy ................................................................................... 1
An Unresolved Collective Challenge ............................................................................................... 2
A Key period for Advancing Actions ................................................................................................ 2
Opportunities .................................................................................................................................. 2
Climate Change Research in Ireland ............................................................................................... 2
The Climate Change Research Programme 2007-13 .......................................................................... 3
Building on CCRP Towards 2050 ..................................................................................................... 3
A future Framing Structure ................................................................................................................. 4
Towards 2050...................................................................................................................................... 5
Thematic research .............................................................................................................................. 5
Theme 1: Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Sinks and Management Options........................................ 6
Theme 2: Future Climate in Ireland, Impacts and Adaptation........................................................ 7
Theme 3: Climate Solutions, Transition Management and Opportunities ..................................... 8
Theme 4: Air Pollution & Short Life Climate Forcers ...................................................................... 9
Observation Systems, Big Data and Systems Models ................................................................... 10
Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................... 11
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Purpose and Background
Climate change and the responses to climate change will have major impacts on Ireland. The year
2050 should mark the completion of a major global transition to a low emissions economy and
society if major and unmanageable impacts are to be avoided. The ‘Towards 2050’ concept for the
research strategy aims to envision and prepare the ground for that transition through information,
innovation and promotion of opportunity. The “Towards 2050” concept also recognises that the
global impacts of climate change are projected to increase until 2050 at least.
To date climate change research has largely been focused on; the provision of analysis of Ireland’s
future climate conditions, their impacts and adaptation options; informing achievement of emission
targets; and envisioning transition to a low-emission climate-resilient economy and society. It is
necessary to assess if this is a suitable approach for the future development of climate change
research for the period 2014-2020. The aim is to identify objectives and goals for that period. The
aim is to build on the work and achievements of the Climate Change Research Programme 20072013 and respond to recent developments and emerging issues.
Introduction
A stable climate system is essential to biodiversity, water supply, food production and social and
economic development. Consequently, climate change creates a unique set of challenges at global,
national and local levels. A timely and effective global transition to a low-emission climate-resilient
society and economy is required. Achievement of this transition is central to sustainable
development goals and will provide major co-benefits, e.g., for human health and environmental
quality. However the delayed global response to climate change may mean that unmanageable
impacts will occur with consequential impacts for the natural environment and man-made
infrastructures.
Addressing climate change and keeping it within manageable limits is a collective challenge. It
involves governance and management systems from local to global levels. It requires effective
involvement from the private sector and market players as well as public bodies. At a national level it
involves all sectors and requires significant cross sectoral co-operation. Consequently actions to
address climate change need to be based on shared goals supported by data and analysis systems
which deliver information that is coherent and robust at all levels. Focused research, effective
observations and robust and current analysis systems are key responses. These should be solutions
focused, address national challenge and build on national strengths and opportunities.
Context for the 2014-2020 Research Strategy
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Climate change remains an unresolved collective challenge
2014-2020 will be a key period for advancing international and national actions
Increasing opportunities for solutions with significant potential economic benefits
Targeted climate change research in Ireland is essential to the provision of practical
response and strategic engagement
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An Unresolved Collective Challenge
World governments have agreed to put the world on a trajectory to a less than 2oC increase in global
temperature. Global actions to date are not sufficient to meet this challenge while the impacts of a
warmer world are increasingly evident, both in changes to extreme weather events and gradual
changes. Natural and managed ecosystems are both threatened by climate change and are part of
the solution. International policy actions to address these issues are anticipated in the coming years
and also being advanced through complementary initiatives such as ‘C40 Cities’ Climate Leadership
Group1 and the ‘Climate and Clean Air and Coalition’2.
A Key period for Advancing Actions
Internationally the publication of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report is imminent and a new United
Nations agreement on international action on climate change is envisaged by 2015. This will come
into force in 2020. This will involve mitigation and adaptation and new approaches to global carbon
markets, capacity building and finance. The EU is currently focused on development of emissions
targets for 2030 target and its adaptation strategy.
The National Economic and Social Council (NESC) report on climate policy3 has proposed a national
vision of GHG neutrality by 2050. In combination with the National Climate Change Adaptation
Framework (NCCAF) and the prospective Climate Change Action and Low Carbon Development Bill,
these provide an emerging view of a future low-carbon climate-resilient Ireland. This Bill is
anticipated to come into law in the near future.
Opportunities
The global transition to low-carbon climate-resilient environment, society and economy will provide
unprecedented market opportunities for solutions in energy, transport, agriculture, infrastructure,
technologies, information and expertise. Ireland must address significant challenges in these areas
and can turn these into opportunities which can have global potential.
Climate Change Research in Ireland
An effective research programme is of both practical and strategic importance for Ireland. At a
practical level it provides essential information and analysis to underpin and inform national actions
on climate change. Strategically it is needed to inform engagement with the EU and UN bodies as
well as other international engagements in which climate change is a component. Research is, in
essence, a key operational response to climate change. The goal should be for such research to
address national challenges, build on national strengths in a solutions based approach to research
and innovation. This programme needs to be linked to the EU Horizon 2020 and climate related JPI
initiatives in order to obtain support from these sources and to avail of the additional capacity,
resources and understanding available via the European Research Area and to communicate and
explore Ireland specific issues in these fora.
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http://www.c40cities.org/
http://www.unep.org/ccac/
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NESC (2012); “Ireland and the Climate Change Challenge: Connecting ‘How Much’ with ‘How To’”
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The Climate Change Research Programme 2007-13
The provision of IDC SSTI funding in 2007 provided the basis for development of the Climate Change
Research Programme (CCRP) based on four thematic research areas and a coordination structure
hosted by the EPA. The structure of the CCRP is shown in Figure 1.
A high level Climate Change Research Coordination Committee and Thematic Steering Groups
provided oversight and direction on the development of the research programme in four thematic
areas. Observation systems and data management systems were advanced as key cross cutting
issues and were also considered by the ad hoc GMES Forum4.
Membership of the steering groups included representatives from Dept’s of Environment,
Agriculture/Coford, Energy and Transport and SEAI, Tegasc, Met Eireann, Office of Public Works,
Marine Ins, Forfas, Science Foundation Ireland, and Enterprise Ireland.
Figure 1: EPA Climate Change Research Programme framing structure 2007-2013
The CCRP structures and processes provided an effective approach to link and co-ordinate climate
change related research in Ireland and resulted in the production of key results in the areas of
greenhouse gases emissions and sinks, climate change impacts and adaptation, socio-economic
solutions and technologies, and trans-boundary air pollutants/short life climate forcers.
Building on CCRP Towards 2050
The CCRP provided an effective forum for advancing thematic research in the identified areas. It also
facilitated exchange of information between the research funding bodies and co-ordination of
research. Engagement with the research community was facilitated by Research Specialists. Wider
stakeholder engagement with the business community, NGO, and institutional bodies is required.
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GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security) now known as Copernicus, is the European Programme for
the establishment of a European capacity for Earth Observation http://copernicus.eu/
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The “Towards 2050” strategy aims to build on the positive elements of the CCRP and increase
engagement with key bodies and groups in a structured manner without over-burdening the
programme or these groups.
A future Framing Structure
Four groups of key players have been identified as having an interest in climate change research; (1)
actors funding research and those using research in policy development, (2)the academic and
research community, (3) the business and enterprise community and (4) the environmental NGO
and the wider civic society communities. The aim is to facilitate their engagement with the climate
change research programme. What type of framing structure or process is needed to enable
engagement these stakeholders? What existing structures can be used?
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Towards 2050
Overall vision: Ireland plays its part of the EU and global solution to climate change, through
mitigation and adaptation
Goal: to envisage and enable an effective climate change research programme that addresses issues
challenges and opportunities of both practical and strategic importance for Ireland in an efficient,
inclusive and cost-effective manner.
Objectives include;
• To fund research of the highest scientific standards
• To provide essential information and analysis to inform national actions on climate change
mitigation and adaptation
• To build on national strengths in a solutions based approach to research, innovation and
sustainable economic growth.
• To support and inform engagement with national, EU, UN, IPCC and other relevant bodies
• To maintain and develop national strategic research capacity and expertise in reporting,
verification and monitoring
• To provide an inclusive structure which facilitates effective stakeholder engagement, cooperation and collaboration.
Questions
Do you consider the Vision appropriate and can form the basis for a national approach to climate
change research?
Do you consider the Goal and Objectives to be appropriate?
Are there important elements missing or alternative objectives?
What role do you consider your organisation could play?
What are the national strengths of Ireland?
Thematic research
The thematic structure used by the CCRP in the period 2007-2013 has been very successful. The
following questions were identified for consideration of how it should evolve for the 2014-2020
period;
• Are the identified themes appropriate?
• Is the thematic vision/goal appropriate?
• Are the identified research objectives seen as priorities?
• Are the objectives appropriate?
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Theme 1: Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Sinks and Management Options
Vision: An Ireland systems model providing analyses of historical, current and future GHG emissions
and removals
Thematic goal: To provide advanced analysis of GHG emissions and removals in Ireland in support of
reporting and accounting requirements, enabling policy development, informing management
approach and decision making.
Research objectives:
• To improve inventory/projections methodologies and activity data
• To move to higher tier reporting and accounting of GHG emissions and removals
• To develop independent measurement and verification systems
• To provide analysis of alternative metrics and approaches to accounting of emissions
• To better develop systems to enable effective mitigation of GHG emissions.
• To improve understanding of the feedback of Climate Change on emissions and removals.
• To maintain and develop national strategic research capacity and expertise.
Topic Areas
a) Methodologies for estimation of GHG emissions and removals from Land Use, Land Use
Change and Forestry (LULUCF)
b) Methodologies for estimation of GHG emissions and removals from other sectors
c) Independent verification of national emissions (inverse modelling)
d) Other metrics and tools for quantifying GHG emission profiles across sectors
Improved understanding of synergies within Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) will
be important under this theme. This would provide for consistent and integrated accounting of all
emissions and removals associated with all land use (activities) and the impact of management
across sectors.
Context:
National: Inventory and Projections of emission within Energy, Transport, Residential and
Commercial, Agriculture and Land Use sectors.
EU: The EU Climate and Energy Package, EU LULUCF decision, Horizon 2020, JPI Climate
International: The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and its 2013
Wetlands and KP Supplements, Global Research Alliance. The 5th Assessment Report will inform at a
high level the mitigation options available. Of particular interest will be the assessment of potential
within terrestrial systems for carbon uptake. This would need to be assessed in the context of
national circumstances.
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Theme 2: Future Climate in Ireland, Impacts and Adaptation
Vision: Build a climate resilient Ireland
Thematic Goal: To enable an effective interface between research, climate data and operational
activities in support of objectives of the NCCAF and the EU Adaptation Strategy (2013)
Research objectives:
• To provide analyses of on-going changes in Ireland climate system,
• To provide analyses of responses of managed and natural systems to climate change
• To provide projections of future climate conditions in Ireland
• To provide analysis of impacts, risks, vulnerabilities and adaptation options.
• To provide technological, management and socio economic solutions
Topic Areas
a) Observations, monitoring analysis
b) Modelling of future climate
c) Impacts, risk and vulnerability assessment
d) Adaptation information and responses
Ireland’s preparedness for current and future impacts of climate change must be brought to the next
level through better informed decision making on adaptation and by making key economic and
policy sectors more resilient to the effects of climate change. Better informed adaptation planning
and decision making will be central to the delivery of national and international commitments, which
needs to be underpinned by data, climate systems and information dissemination.
Context:
National: The National Climate Change Adaptation Framework and the heads of Climate Action and
Low Carbon Development Bill.
EU: The EU Adaptation Strategy, the work of the EEA (CLIMATE-ADAPT) and ECMWF via the MACC,
Horizon 2020, JPI Climate
International: The IPCC 5th Assessment Report and the availability of new climate projections, and
on-going work under the UNFCCC and WMO on climate services.
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Theme 3: Climate Solutions, Transition Management and Opportunities
Vision: A net zero emission Ireland by 2050, leading in climate actions and solutions
Thematic Goal: Achievement of 2020 targets and to identify sustainable pathways for achievement
of longer term goals for societal and economic low carbon transformation to 2050.
Research Objectives
• To provide socioeconomic modelling of cross sectoral greenhouse gas emissions
• To provide sectoral analysis and research on the range of mitigation options
• To promote cross disciplinary analysis of effective options for behavioural change
• To identify green economy opportunities from international trends in policy and economics
• To inform market opportunities and enhance analysis of competiveness
• To bring together diverse research outputs to form a coherent picture of analysis for Ireland
Topic Areas
a) Modelling emissions drivers and trends
b) Mitigation technologies
c) Changing behaviour (economics, psychology, sociology)
d) Changing business (economics, finance, carbon markets)
The 2050 goal creates a new perspective on our actions in the short-term. Preparation is required
across the economy and society for the longterm fundamental shift. This requires understanding
what changes will be required by 2050 including through the use of models. It also requires
understanding of how behaviour and business can change and how to encourage, incentivise or
enable that change. A broader range of disciplines needs to be embraced.
Context
National: The heads of Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Bill (DECLG, 2013), the report
by the NESC Secretariat, “Ireland and the Climate Change Challenge; Connecting ‘How much’ to
‘How to’” (NESC, 2012), and the National Adaptation Framework (DECLG, 2012). This drives the need
to develop cost effective and long last lasting economic solutions to climate change mitigation and
adaptation through mobilising expertise, know-how and systems in the traded and non-traded
sectors, including links to ecosystem based mitigation.
EU: Existing 2020 mitigation, renewable energy and energy efficiency targets, the European
Commission’s paper “A Roadmap for Moving to a Competitive Low Carbon Economy in 2050” and
preliminary discussions of 2030 mitigation targets.
International: The 2nd commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, climate finance targets, IPCC 5th
Assessment Report and the negotiation of a new 2015 climate change protocol under the UNFCCC
for inter alia mitigation and climate finance commitments.
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Theme 4: Air Pollution & Short Life Climate Forcers
Vision: clean air and climate positive
Goal: To provide robust analysis of trans-boundary air pollution in Ireland, to contribute to scientific
publications in this area through targeted research, to advance the national capacity in terms of
assessment and modelling and forecasting of trans-boundary air pollution incidents.
Thematic objectives:
• To advance analyses of emissions, transport and removal of air pollutants.
• To improve national inventories and projections of emissions over a wide range of pollutants
including heavy metals and POPs.
• To increase understanding and awareness of the impacts of air pollutants.
• To provide analysis of short lived climate forcers in Ireland.
• To identify and promote emissions abatement options.
• To progress and help coordinate trans-boundary activities nationally.
Topic areas
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Monitoring air quality and atmospheric concentrations of pollutants
Modelling the emission and transport of pollutants
Assessing their impacts and environmental and health effects
Co-benefits with Climate Change and potential challenges
There is increasing concern over potential the long term impacts of exposure to particulate matter,
especially ultra-fine particles. Initiatives, such as National Emissions Ceilings Directive (NECD), Clean
Air For Europe (CAFÉ) and the Convention for Long Range Transport of Air Pollutants (CLRTAP), have
not been successful in addressing the emission of nitrogen oxides from major sources. Attribution of
air pollutant emissions to economic sector (such as transport, agriculture, residential and
commercial activities) is in important research challenge.
Context:
National: Participation in European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and Integrated
Carbon Observation System (ICOS), Inventory and Projections of emissions under National Emissions
Ceilings Directive (NECD) and CLRTAP/Gothenburg
EU: National Emissions Ceilings Directive (NECD), European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme
(EMEP), Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS), Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research
Infrastructure Network (ACTRIS5), EU Habitats Directive
International: UNECE Convention on Trans-boundary Long Range Trans-boundary Air Pollution
(CLRTAP), Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC)
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http://www.actris.net/
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Observation Systems, Big Data and Systems Models
Vision: Ireland as a leader in advanced observations and benefiting from analysis systems to support
management of resources and responding to on-going change and extreme events
Goal: To use advantages that arise from Ireland’s size geography and location to develop it as a
platform for advanced observations/systems models
Objectives
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To ensure that required observational capacity of ECV is developed and maintained
To ensure that phenological observations are developed and maintained
To used advanced in-situ and space based observation systems to enhance current systems
To link and integrate observational data via domain and systems models and test these
To provide information, analysis and forecasts/projections to support decision making
To link to EU and global initiatives that are developing observation systems and
downstream systems
Under the CCRP this area was principally advanced through the work on Essential Climate Variables
(ECVs) identified at UN level6, Phenology studies and work on in-situ and remote sensing including
space based observation systems under specific projects and pan-European activities such as the
Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS)7. The growing capability of such systems including
“Smart systems to provide required information at a range of temporal and spatial scales across key
terrestrial, atmospheric and oceanic domains as well as key elements of these domains e.g.
cities/urban areas provides a new opportunities and challenges including challenges for data
processing and management. Using such data in systems and management models is also essential
if they are to be effectively used for long and short term decision making or in warning or alert
systems. Ireland though is size geography and location makes it an ideal platform for development
and testing of such systems. The Mace Head Observatory is a leading global site for atmospheric
observations. This aim is to further develop Ireland as a platform for advanced observation systems
which are integrated via systems models into decision support and management systems.
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http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/
http://www.icos-infrastructure.eu/
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Conclusions
The climate change research programme needs to be developed to respond to recent developments
and emerging issues at the scientific and policy levels. It needs to inform actions to address
challenges and support innovation. The programme needs to be Ireland specific but linked to and
complementary to EU Horizon 2020 and work under the JPI. It should build on Ireland’s strengths
and enable opportunities and solutions.
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