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Climate Change FY 2015 NW Region TTAP/BIA Symposium Embassy Suites Portland – Airport Portland, OR March 16-19, 2015 Franco Yazzie, EIT Highway Engineer BIA NWRO – DOT Portland, OR Overview A change in the statistical properties of the climate system when considered over long periods of time (i.e. several decades to millions of years). Changes in temperature, precipitation, wind patterns, or other effects. Accordingly, fluctuations over periods shorter than a few decades, such as El Nino, do not represent climate change. Causes Global warming Human activities and natural factors Variations in the sun’s solar energy that is absorb by the Earth Changes in the reflectivity of Earth’s atmosphere and surface Increased Greenhouse Gases (i.e. carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases) Impacts Rising global temperatures Changes in increase/decrease rainfall More frequent and severe heat waves, droughts, and flooding Warmer and more acidic oceans Rising sea levels Melting ice caps and glaciers Increased wildfires Affects Water supplies, agriculture, and the natural environment Power and transportation systems Natural animal habitat(s) Forest and plant life Human health and safety Economies and cultures Coastlines and so much more Addressing Climate Change Adopt policies to reduce energy use Adopt carbon taxes and cap-and-trade systems Limit greenhouse gas emissions Build a clean energy economy Water conservation Reduce, Reuse, and Recycle 94th Annual TRB Meeting January 11-15, 2015 in Washington, DC Attracts more than 12,000 transportation professionals around the world Transportation Research Board Meeting covers all transportation modes with more than 5,000 presentations in nearly 750 sessions and workshops Several climate change related presentations (i.e. Gulf Coast Study) FHWA Involvement Develop tools that analyze a region’s Greenhouse Gas emissions and can assist in developing policies that help to reduce them. Vulnerability assessment framework Climate/Extreme Weather Risk Management Tool Memo clarifying use of highway funds for adaptation activities. Gulf Coast Study Pilot project in Mobile, Alabama. The project’s mission includes assessing vulnerabilities and adaptation of a metropolitan transportation system. Also, to develop methods, resources, and tools that will assist transportation agencies around the country Gulf Coast Study Phase 1 – Overview of climate change impacts on transportation infrastructure in central Gulf Coast (completed in 2008). Phase 2 – a) Focus on one metropolitan area (Mobile, Alabama). Phase 2 - b) Development of adaptation tools and strategies that will be transferable to other areas. Key Findings in Mobile Projected climate changes ◦ Develop project climate data Vulnerability assessment ◦ High-level analysis to find representative assets most likely to be vulnerable to climate change Engineering assessments ◦ Detailed assessments of specific assets in Mobile ◦ 11 case studies Key Findings in Mobile Projected climate changes ◦ Increased temperature events (above 95°F) ◦ Precipitation for 100-year storm projected to become stronger ◦ Sea level rise suggest a range of 1 to 6.6 feet (0.3 to 2.0 meters) according to studies ◦ Future storm surge projections has the potential to greatly exceed any historical surges Key Findings in Mobile Vulnerability assessment ◦ Exposure – Nature and degree of exposure to climate variability and change ◦ Sensitivity – Degree to which a system is affected by exposure ◦ Adaptive Capacity – Ability of a system to respond successfully to climate variability and change Vulnerability Examples Exposure Sensitivity Temp - Days above 95°F Temp – Pavement binder, traffic (roads) 24-hour precipitation Storm surge height Wind speed exceeds threshold above which impacts may occur Precip – FEMA flood zones, ponding, impervious surface area (all modes) Storm surge – Height & condition (bridges), electric signing & soil type (rail), access (transit) Wind – Building Height, materials, roof type; road sign or signal density (road & rail) Inundated by sea level rise Adaptive Capacity Speed to recover asset – cost of improvement (bridges), identified as a priority in emergency planning (rail, air, transit) Redundancy – detour length (bridge, air), number of terminals/runways (air), ability to reroute (transit & rail), rail yard interchange utility (rail) System disruption duration (climate variable-specific) Vulnerability Overall Results Sea level rise and storm surge are biggest climate stressors for Mobile transportation system Several assets are highly vulnerable to multiple climate stressors ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ Alabama St. docks & other Mobile River ports Wallace Tunnel SR-193 near Theodore Industrial Canal I-10 bridge across Mobile Bay Engineering Assessments Engineering Analyses ◦ 11-step adaptation approach 11 Engineering Case Studies ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ Climate Stressor (Precip, Temp, SLR, Surge) Asset Type (Culvert, Bridge, Pier, Roadway) Damage Mechanism (Waves, Scour, Flood) Asset Location (Site Location) Vulnerability Score (NA, Low, Medium, High) Engineering Assessments Lessons Learned ◦ General Lessons: Consider all stressors that might act on an asset Consider all secondary impacts Think in terms of infrastructure systems ◦ Asset-specific lessons learned ATNI Tribal Leaders on Climate Change March 10-11, 2015 in Portland, OR Theme: Asserting Native Resilience – Protecting and Enhancing Tribal Resources and Sovereignty in the face of Climate Change Tribal Councils, Policy Leaders, Tribal Staff, and Federal Agency Representatives were Requested to Attend Purpose of the Summit ATNI Tribal Leaders to discuss Climate Change Impacts Discuss Tribal Strategies, Plans, Policy on Climate Change, Energy, and Carbon Emissions Identify and Discuss Regional, National, and International Policy on Climate Change Purpose of the Summit Identify and Discuss Tribal Needs and Present Funding Sources and Opportunities Identify Issues and Strategies to Promote and Protect Tribal Sovereignty and Tribal Resources Discuss Interest in Developing a NW Tribal Action Plan on Climate Change, Energy, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Summit Highlights Diverse range of attendees from EPA, USDA, DOI-BIA, USGS,Various Tribes, University of Washington, Northern Arizona University, and many more Various Climate Change Presentations Several Guest Speakers Federal and Tribal Leadership Panels Roundtable Discussions Summit Presentations Climate Impacts Group Presentation Summit Presentations Climate Change Strategic Plan Presentation Summit Panel Federal Leadership Panel Summit Speakers BIA NW Regional Director Guest Speaker Summit Speakers Quinault President Guest Speaker Questions??