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Health Impacts of Climate Change “ Climate Change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st Century” Lancet, 2009 Doctors for the Environment, Australia (DEA) is a voluntary, doctor’s organisation, formed in 2001, with members in all States and Territories. The aim of the organisation is to inform and educate the public, the medical profession and policy makers about the relationships between health and the environment. Our priority issue at the present time is the health effects of climate change. DEA is a member of the International Society of Doctors for the Environment. Scientific committee: Prof. Stephen Boyden AM Prof. Peter Doherty AC Prof. Bob Douglas AO Prof. Frank Fenner AC Prof. Michael Kidd AM Prof. Steve Leeder AO Prof. Ian Lowe AO Prof. Tony Mc Michael Prof. Peter Newman Sir Gustav Nossal AC Prof. Hugh Possingham Prof. Lawrie Powell AC Prof. Fiona Stanley AC Norman Swan Prof. David Yencken AO Overview: Science of climate change Health effects of climate change Case for urgent action Solutions Climate Science 101 The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere causes the trapping of heat from the sun hence a rise in the temperature of the earth’s climate Greenhouse gases include CO2, water vapour, methane and nitrous oxide The increase in temperature is proportional to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere CO2 concentration has increased from: Pre-industrial- 280ppm 1958- 316ppm 2008- 387ppm Average global temperature rise so far 0.76 deg C The Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse gases in atmosphere Solar energy passes through Radiant heat is trapped Source: Williams DL. Global Warming: The Greatest Threat. Alaska Conservation Solutions, 2006. The Earth is Warming Brohan 2006 CO2 = temperature The increase in temperature is proportional to the increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere CO2 increase over time IPCC 1990 Per capita emissions due to electricity, 2005 Source: IEA; Department of Climate Change Current impacts at 0.76 deg rise Arctic: The floating sea-ice is headed towards rapid summer disintegration as early as 2013, a century ahead of the IPCC projections “albedo flip” as described by James Hansen (NASA) leads to a positive feedback loop as the arctic sea warms Greenland ice sheet melt and thawing of permafrost predicted for this century Revkin, 2007 Hansen et al, 2007 Hansen, 2006 Westbrook et al, 2009 Ice-free summer as early as 2013? Beck,A. 2007 Current impacts at 0.76 deg rise Current impacts at 0.76 deg rise Victoria: Hottest day ever recorded 7th Feb. 2009 Driest start to year for 150years 2009 Record 12 year low rainfall Fire danger rating for Victoria on 7th Feb. 2009 ranged between 120-190 (previous record was Black Saturday in 1939 of 100) where 100=catastrophic rating 374 deaths from heat stress in first week of Feb. David Karoly. 16/2/09 January 2009 heatwave in Victoria report-Chief Health Officer, Victoria. Water storages at lowest point ever How Doctors assess risk and make decisions: Scenario One Hx:25 yo male presents with 24hr history of central abdominal pain localizing to RIF. Associated with anorexia, nausea, fever Ex: T 37.5 deg C pr 120 rebound tenderness over Mc Burney’s point Ix: high wcc & crp Dx: appendicitis Scenario Two Hx: increasing frequency of severe weather events, changing patterns of plant and animal behaviour Ex: loss of polar sea ice, global glacial retreat, increase in earth’s temperature, rising sea levels and acidification of ocean Ix: atmospheric CO2 increasing at rate proportional to increase in earth’s temperature Dx: climate change Anthropogenic climate change is now incontrovertible Lancet Comparison of risks Provisional Dx Diagnostic Certainty Risk of inaction Risk of action Scenario One Scenario Two Appendicitis Climate Change 10-90% >90% Ruptured appendix Death Extinction of human species Operative risk for incorrect Dx ???? ECONOMIC Health effects of climate change Changing patterns of disease Water and food insecurity Vulnerable shelter and human settlements Extreme climate events Population migration These effects are both direct and indirect Changing patterns of disease Vector borne disease increases with temperature temperature is vector reproduction; parasite development and bite frequency increase in malaria, tickborne encephalitis and dengue fever Heatwaves increase death due to heat stress ie. Europe summer 200370,000 deaths Lancet, 2009 Mosquito abundance increases by a factor of 10 for every 0.1 deg C increase in temperature Water and food insecurity Famine: Climate change is likely to compound existing food insecurity Food emergencies have increased from 15/year in 80’s to >30/year : UN World Food Program Corn and soybean yields in USA reduced by 17% for every 1 deg C temp rise Drought: 1/6 world population live in glacial fed water catchments which are vulnerable to climate change increased water temp and reduced water flow lead to reduced water quality Lancet, 2009 Vulnerable Shelter and Human Settlements Due to abandonment of flooded or arid land United Nations 2006 revision of population predicts movement from climate affected lands in developing countries to developed countries to be 2.3 million every year after 2010 Number of climate change related migrants expected to be 100’s of millions by 2050 Extreme climate events Floods Related infectious diseases ie. cholera, dengue, malaria, leptospirosis increased after hurricane in Nicuragua in 1998 Reduction in water quality and sanitation Loss of property, farmlands, direct loss of life Psychological trauma Cyclones and hurricanes Direct loss of life, property, farmlands Reduction in water quality and sanitation Psychological trauma Bushfires Direct loss of life, property, farmlands Psychological trauma Heatwaves Psychological effects Direct Grief as reaction to loss; PTSD Indirect Depression, anxiety in the face of dire predictions Moral issues Climate change raises the moral issues of : Intergenerational justice Health equity ie. those responsible for historical CO2 (rich) are less likely to suffer than the poor “ On a balance of probabilities, the failure of our generation on climate change mitigation would lead to consequences that would haunt humanity until the end of time.” Garnaut, 2008 Health impacts of climate change Density equalling cartogram. WHO regions scaled according to estimated mortality (per million people) in the year 2000, attributable to the climate change that occurred from 1970s to 2000. Patz et al, in press Emissions of greenhouse gases Density equalling cartogram. Countries scaled according to cumulative emissions in billion tonnes carbon equivalent in 2002. Patz et al Solutions Mitigation: move to post carbon economy Draw down CO2 to achieve a “safe climate” with a CO2 of 350ppm Adaptation Improve education amongst doctors of current climate science, health impacts and solutions Move to develop skill share and educational relationships with the developing world Primary Health Care Strategies Blashki McMichael Karoly 2007 Danger Opportunity Solutions Our capacity to respond to the negative effects of climate change relies on the generation of reliable, relevant and current information “There’s a call for a public health movement that frames the threat of climate change for humankind as a health issue.” Lancet 2009 Video... There is also a fantastic video relating to the effects of climate change available for viewing or dowload Click here after reading directions below. There are two versions available, one for Windows (the .wmv file) and one for Mac (the .mp4 file). To download simply right-click the appropriate version and select "Download linked file as..." (or an equivalent command).