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MET 112 MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 9 Controls on Climate Change Professor Menglin Jin Outline: IPCC CA Efforts on Energy Kyoto Treat 1 The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human induced interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner’ MET 112 3 Figure: Courtesy of IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch/ Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis WGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report Summary for Policymakers (SPM) Drafted by a team of 59 Approved ‘sentence by sentence’ by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists) 14 chapters 881 pages 120 Lead Authors 515 Contributing Authors 4621 References quoted IPCC Assessment Report MET 112 IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming). – Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing (cooling) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” (IPCC) 1997 "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities .“ (IPCC), 2001 (IPCC) 2007 6 IPCC Assessment Report MET 112 IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming). – Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing (cooling) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” (IPCC) 1997 "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities .“ (IPCC), 2001 The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heattrapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century. (IPCC) 2007 7 Human Responsibility for Climate Change MET 112 The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century.” 8 Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers. IPCC video MET 112 http://www.met.sjsu.edu/metr112videos/MET%20112%20Video%20LibraryMP4/future%20impact%20from%20ipcc/ 9 Model Sensitivity MET 112 Models (like the atmosphere) are sensitive systems. They can respond differently to the same radiative forcing, e.g., a doubling of CO2 – This means that different models give different answers to the same problem – Thus, we use a range of models to determine the range of possible future scenarios. 10 Model Sensitivity MET 112 Models (like the atmosphere) are sensitive systems. They can respond differently to the same radiative forcing, e.g., a doubling of CO2 – – Thus, we use a range of models to determine the range of possible future scenarios. 11 Emission Scenarios MET 112 12 SRES (special report on emission scenarios) Scenarios MET 112 13 CO2 concentrations (amount) MET 112 14 Future Predictions: Temperature MET 112 15 Notes on Temperature Projections MET 112 Projected Warming: 2000 – 2100 ranges from ~1.4°C to ~5.8°C. Curves represent warming produced for seven scenarios by a model with average sensitivity. Each bar on right represent range of warming produced – by models of differing sensitivies for a specific scenario. 16 Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes MET 112 Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC 17 Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall increase projected MET 112 Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990 18 Sea Level MET 112 19 Sea Level Rise MET 112 Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990 20 Climate Change Impacts MET 112 What signals would we expect from a warmer world? – Higher average temperature – Higher maximum temperatures – Higher minimum temperatures – More precipitation – Higher sea level – etc What ‘evidence’ do we have for changes in the 20th century? 21 MET 112 22 MET 112 23 Tons of CO2 emitted per person MET 112 24 MET 112 25 US CO2 Emissions MET 112 Total emissions ~ 5,788.5 million metric tons ~ 22 metric tons per person Industry: 35% Transportation: 33% Residences: 18% Commercial: 14% 1,600 million metric tons due to personal use (~33%) 26 Average US Personal Energy Use (Per Person) MET 112 Automobile fuel: 38 gallons per month Natural Gas: 15 therms per month Electricity: 190 Kilowatt-hours per month Airline Miles flown 147 miles per month Total: Latest estimate ~ 17,600 lbs of CO2 Kyoto allowance (for US): ~11,000 pounds To stabilize climate (550ppm) 4,700 pounds 27 Mitigation of climate change MET 112 Mitigation: – Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative environmental impacts. Mitigation can include: • avoiding the impact by not taking a certain action; • minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or magnitude of the action; • rectifying the impact by repairing or restoring the affected environment 28 The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005 The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012. The Kyoto Protocol MET 112 A United Nations sponsored effort: – Calls for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by industrialized countries of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels. – The Protocol will go into force after 1. The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55 countries. 2. The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions. – Current status: 156 countries have signed accounting for 61% of global CO2. US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for 36% of CO2 emitted) Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005 30 Kyoto Protocol Aim: – Ways to reduce increasing GHG Goals: – MET 112 Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy 31 MET 112 32 Kyoto Protocol Aim: – Ways to reduce increasing GHG Goals: – – MET 112 Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy Protection and enhancement of sinks 33 MET 112 34 Kyoto Protocol Aim: – Ways to reduce increasing GHG Goals: – – – MET 112 Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy Protection and enhancement of sinks Promote sustainable agriculture 35 MET 112 36 Kyoto Protocol Aim: – Ways to reduce increasing GHG Goals: – – – – – MET 112 Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy Protection and enhancement of sinks Promote sustainable agriculture Research and promote new and renewable energy 37 MET 112 Kyoto Protocol Aim: – Ways to reduce increasing GHG Goals: – – – – – – Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy Protection and enhancement of sinks Promote sustainable agriculture Research and promote new and renewable energy Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’ 44 Kyoto Protocol Aim: – Ways to reduce increasing GHG Goals: – – – – – – MET 112 Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy Protection and enhancement of sinks Promote sustainable agriculture Research and promote new and renewable energy Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’ Encourage ‘good practices’ 46 IPCC video MET 112 http://www.met.sjsu.edu/metr112videos/MET%20112%20Video%20LibraryMP4/future%20impact%20from%20ipcc/ UN Climate Change Conference.mp4 49 Kyoto Protocol Aim: – Ways to reduce increasing GHG Goals: – – – – – – – MET 112 Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy Protection and enhancement of sinks Promote sustainable agriculture Research and promote new and renewable energy Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’ Encourage ‘good practices’ Cut GHG from aviation 50 Kyoto Targets MET 112 Industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions by 5.2% compared to the year 1990 Note that compared to the emissions levels by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents ~30% cut). Calculated as an average – over the five-year period of 2008-12. Target includes six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs 51 MET 112 HFC - Hydrofluorocarbons PFC- perfluorocarbon, a powerful greenhouse gas emitted during the production of aluminumPFC 52 Kyoto Targets MET 112 National targets – European Union - 8% below 1990 levels – USA - 7% below 1990 – Japan - 6% below 1990 – Russia 0% (stay at 1990 levels) – Australia 8% over 1990 levels) – Developing countries (no target) China, India etc. 53 Kyoto Targets: Developing countries MET 112 The UN Framework on Climate has agreed: 1. The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases – has originated in developed countries; 2. Per capita emissions in developing countries – are still relatively low; 3. The share of global emissions originating in developing countries – will grow to meet their social and development needs. 54 The Kyoto Mechanisms MET 112 Under the Treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures. However, the Kyoto Protocol offers them an additional means of meeting their targets by way of three market-based mechanisms. The Kyoto mechanisms are: Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market" Clean development mechanism (CDM) Joint implementation (JI). 55 Kyoto Protocol Mechanisms MET 112 Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012 Countries can meet their commitments together Joint implementation -Countries can work together to meet their emission reduction targets. Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing countries to achieve sustainable development and limit GHG increases and then claim some emission reductions for their own targets Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’ 56 Emissions Trading MET 112 Each country has an emission limit. If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the open market) who are under their limit. This financially rewards countries that meet their targets. Countries also receive carbon credits through – clean energy programs (i.e. greentags) – carbon dioxide sinks (i.e. forests, oceans) 57 Main reasons the US did not sign the Kyoto Protocol? Economic burden No limits on developing countries (i.e. China, India) Protocol is not going to help much "We will not do anything that harms our economy, because first things first are the people who live in America" - President Bush Video for global warming debate MET 112 http://www.met.sjsu.edu/metr112videos/MET%20112%20Video%20LibraryMP4/climate%20feedback/ Moyers-1.mp4 60 Jim Hansen: Obama's Second Chance on the Predominant Moral Issue of This Century http://www.huffingtonpost .com/dr-jameshansen/obamas-secondchance-onc_b_525567.html MET 112 Member of National Academy of Science NASA GISS Director 61 Al Gore’s New Book MET 112 http://www.costcoconnection.com/connection/2 00911#pg27 “Several problems, one solution” 62 Solutions - government MET 112 Kyoto Protocol California potential leader 63 MET 112 65 MET 112 66 Solutions - personal Transportation Home Food Consumption MET 112 www.earthday.net : Top 10 Actions; Ecological Footprint 67 Four R’s MET 112 1. Rethink 2. Reduce 3. Reuse 4. Recycle 68 MET 112 69 MET 112 Climate Change lead to: – Sea levels – Extreme heat – Health impacts – Water resource – Agriculture and vegetation – etc 70 MET 112 Climate change and California Average Temperature: Winter - warmer winters - snowpack declines by 70-90% by 2090 Summer – warmer summers (5-15F by 2090) 1. Coastal cities: coastal erosion by sea level rise. 2. Human health: Urban air pollution/heat extremes impact most vulnerable 3. Water resources: Total water, but early runoff from Sierras costly to adapt. 4. Agriculture: Major challenge to various crops industries. 71 What is Heat Wave? MET 112 A heat wave is a prolonged period of excessively hot weather may be accompanied by high humidity Definition recommended by WMO The definition recommended by the World Meteorological Organization is when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F), the normal period being 1961 - 1990. 72 MET 112 73 Class Participation Your name_________ MET 112 By 2050, which city has the longest heat wave days? Why? What are the differences between the low emission and high emission cases in terms of heat wave days by 2090 for city Riverside? How about city LA? How many people may die due to heat wave in SF in 2050 and 2090? 74 MET 112 75 MET 112 76