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The ESA Climate Change Initiative Earth System Science 2010 Global Change, Climate and People Edinburgh May 11, 2010 Page 1 Some points picked up yesterday • Roseanna Cunningham, MSP- Minister for Environment – Dialogue Scientists / Politics • Prof. Jacqueline McGlade - European Environment Agency – Quality Assured Data and Traceability – Link to in-situ Data • Prof. Berrien Moore - University of New Hampshire – Compare model with long time series of satellite data Page 2 Quality Assured Data and Traceability Metrological barriers ? Page 3 Metrological barriers • The importance of calibration traceably to SI units. – For climate applications, long time-series of data requires records from a series of sensors from separate agencies using different engineering designs and different procedures for characterisation and calibration of the sensors. For climate applications, especially, this can be a major obstacle to acceptance by the user communities of satellite datarecords. (Prof. David Llewellyn-Jones – U. Leicester) • Inter-comparison experiments – It is essential for the integrity of their use, that any differences in their measurements are understood, so that any potential biases are removed and are not transferred to satellite sensors. (Evangelos Theocharous – NPL) • talking about Field-deployed infrared radiometers Page 4 Metrological barriers • A Quality Assurance Framework for Earth Observation – The QA4EO Initiative has led to a set of guidelines which aims to set out realistic and practical procedures which can be followed in the calibration and validation of earthobserving (satellite) sensors (David Llewelling-Jones) Page 5 QA4EO Background • The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) must deliver “timely, quality, long-term, global information ” to meet the needs of its nine “societal benefit areas”. • This will be achieved through the synergistic use of data derived from a variety of sources (satellite, airborne and surface-based) and the coordination of resources and efforts of the members. • Accomplishing this vision, starting from a system of disparate systems that were built for a multitude of applications, requires the establishment of an internationally coordinated framework to facilitate interoperability and harmonisation. • The success of this framework is dependent upon the successful implementation of a single key principle: – all EO data and derived products shall have associated with it a documented and fully traceable quality indicator (QI). • Success also necessitates the means to efficiently communicate this attributes to all stakeholders. Page 6 QA4EO Essential Principle Data and derived products shall have associated with them an QA4EO indicator of their quality to enable users to assess its suitability for their application. Essential Principle “fitness for purpose” Quality Indicators (QIs) should be ascribed to data and Products. AQuality QI should provide sufficient Indicators information to allow all users to readily evaluate its “fitness for purpose”. QI needs to be based on a documented and quantifiable assessment of evidence demonstrating the level of Traceability traceability to internationally agreed (where possible SI) reference standards. Page 7 Reliability and issues with historical temperature records • Over land measurements are produced at stations. It is important to correct biases caused by changes in station location and to eliminate any individual observations with large errors. Processing of SST observations is more complicated than land because of large instrumental changes. (Dick Reynolds) Page 8 The Climate Change Initiative Programme The background Page 9 Climate Change Initiative • The objective of Climate Change Initiative is to realize the full potential of the long-term global Earth Observation archives that ESA together with its Member states have established over the last thirty years, as a significant and timely contribution to the ECV databases required by UNFCCC. • It will ensure that full capital is derived from ongoing and planned ESA missions for climate purposes, including ERS, Envisat, the Earth Explorer missions, relevant ESA-managed archives of Third-Party Mission data and, in due course, the GMES Space Component. Page 10 Climate Change Initiative • Based on this analysis the following five main activities will be implemented to achieve the overall objective: – – – – – Gathering, collating and preserving the long-term time series in ESA’s distributed archives. (Re-)Processing periodically the basic EO-data sets from each individual mission and applying the most up-to-date algorithms and cal/val corrections. Integrating the calibrated data sets derived from individual contributing EO mission and sensors to constitute the most comprehensive and well-characterized global long term records possible for each ECV. Assessing the trends and consistency of the ECV records in the context of climate models and assimilation schemes. Developing improved algorithms and data models for production of the required variables from emerging data sources, consistent with the long term record Page 11 Two climate action paths GCOS-82 in 2003 GCOS-92 in 2004 GCOS-107 in 2006 GEOSS 10-year plan in 2005 CEOS response 2006 CEOS IP for GEOSS in 2007 Page 12 GEOSS IP 2005 GCOS IP 2004 Part of GEO task CL-06-01 ESA CCI: Production of Essential Climate Variables (ECV) according to GCOS requirements Precursor example ESA Ministerial Council, Nov 2008: Approval of 75 M€ for a six year programme that will contribute to about twenty satellite-based ECVs. A strong interaction with the scientific community is an essential part of the programme. The CCI initiative will ensure that ESA can play a full role in deriving relevant ECVs specified by GCOS, based on ESA current and archived EO data. ESA will work with CEOS agencies to ensure as complete a coverage of the entire suite of ECVs as possible. Page 13 Climate Observations Research and Services Stakeholders, Users, Decision-makers Assessment Products Information Basic Research Prediction Operational Applied Research Attribution Climate Services Modeling Assimilation Observation, Data and Analysis ESA Climate Change Initiative (from K. Trenberth: Observational needs for climate prediction and adaptation, WMO Bulletin 57(1), January 2008) Data Access Earth Explorers Envisat / ERS National Missions Page 14 GMES Sentinels Meteo Missions (Eumetsat) The Climate Change Initiative Programme The Essential Climate Variables Page 15 Satellite-based ECVs Domain Essential Climate Variables Surface: Atmospheric (over land sea and ice) Air temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure, Surface radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour. Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiances), Upper-air Upper-air: temperature (including MSU radiances), Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties. Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone, Other Long-Lived greenhouse gases, Aerosol properties. Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea-level, Sea Surface: state, Sea ice, Current, Ocean colour (for biological activity), Carbon dioxide partial pressure. Oceanic Sub-surface: Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon, Ocean tracers, Phytoplankton. River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lake levels, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land Cover Terrestrial (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active Radiation (fAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Biomass, Fire disturbance. Soil moisture. GCOS – 107 Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-Based Product for Climate Page 81 Page 16 GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) EVs O.1 Sea Ice O.2 Sea Level OCEANS O.3 Sea Surface Temperature O.4 Ocean Color O.5 O.7 ATMOSPHERE O.6 Sea State Ocean Reanalysis Ocean Salinity TERRESTRIAL T.1 Lakes T.2 Glaciers & Ice Caps, and Ice Sheets T.3 Snow Cover T.4 Albedo T.5 Land Cover T.6 fAPAR T.7 LAI T.8 Biomass T.9 Fire Disturbance T.10 A.1 Surface Wind Speed and Direction A.2 Upper-air Temperature A.3 Water Vapour A.4 Cloud Properties A.5 Precipitation A.6 Earth Radiation Budget A.7 Ozone A.8 Atmospheric reanalysis (multiple ECVs) A.9 Aerosols A.10 Carbon Dioxide, Methane and other Greenhouse Gases A.11 Upper-air Wind Soil moisture GCOS – 107 Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-Based Product for Climate Page 12 and 13 Page 17 GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) EVs O.1 Sea Ice O.2 Sea Level OCEANS O.3 Sea Surface Temperature O.4 Ocean Color O.5 O.7 ATMOSPHERE O.6 Sea State Ocean Reanalysis Ocean Salinity TERRESTRIAL T.1 Lakes T.2 Glaciers & Ice Caps, and Ice Sheets T.3 Snow Cover T.4 Albedo T.5 Land Cover T.6 fAPAR T.7 LAI T.8 Biomass T.9 Fire Disturbance T.10 A.1 Surface Wind Speed and Direction A.2 Upper-air Temperature A.3 Water Vapour A.4 Cloud Properties A.5 Precipitation A.6 Earth Radiation Budget A.7 Ozone A.8 Atmospheric reanalysis (multiple ECVs) A.9 Aerosols A.10 Carbon Dioxide, Methane and other Greenhouse Gases A.11 Upper-air Wind CCI First Steps (11 ECVs) Soil moisture GCOS – 107 Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-Based Product for Climate Page 12 and 13 Page 18 Data from each sensor contributes to FCDR of several ECVs ESA missions data => FCDRs => ECVs ERS-1 ERS-2 FCDR of each ECV requires data from several sensors Envisat (2002) Sentinels Earth Explorer Eumetsat Other Missions count JERS / ALOS (1991 / 2006) Radarsat (1995) Aquarius(2010) TOMS (1978) OMI (2004) Geosat Follow-on (1998) SeaWIFS (1997) MODIS (1999) DMSP – SSMI (1987) AVHRR (1981) Landsat (1977) SPOT / HRV (1986) SPOT / VGT (1998) TOPEX / Jason (1991) Ascatt (2006) IASI (2006) GOME-2 (2006) MSG (2002) Sentinel 5 Sentinel 4 Sentinel 3 (2012) Sentinel 2 (2012) Sentinel 1 (2012) EarthCAre (2012) ADM / Aeolus (2009) Cryosat (2009) SMOS (2009) GOCE (2008) GOMOS MIPAS Sciamachy ASAR Image Mode ASAR Wave Mode Meris AATSR Radar Altimeter Gome Scatterometer SAR Image Mode SAR Wave Mode ATSR-2 Radar Altimeter Scatterometer SAR Image Mode SAR Wave Mode ATSR-1 Radar Altimeter ECV ● ● ● OCEAN LAND ATMOSPHERE O.2 Sea Level O.3 SST O.4 Ocean Colour O.5 Sea State O.6 Ocean Salinity O.1 Sea Ice Concentration T.1 Lakes ● ● ● ● ● ● T.2 Glacier & Ice Caps ● ● ● ● T.5 Land Cover T.6 faPAR T.7 LAI T.8 Biomass T.9 Burned Area & Burning Fire T.10 Soil Moisture (Research) T.3 Snow Area T.4 Albedo A.4 Cloud Properties A.7 O3 Total and Column A.8 Aerosol OD & other props A.9 GHGs Distributions A.10 Upper Air Winds ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ●● 4 ● 12 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ● 7 ● ● 21 ● ● 12 11 8 8 ● ● ●● ● ●●●● ● ●●●●● ●● ● ● 6 ● 10 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 3 ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● 7 ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● 8 ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 6 ● ● ●●●● ● ● ● 16 ● ● 13 ●● ● 9 ● ●8 ● 17 ●7 ● 4 5 1 5 2 4 10 1 5 2 3 4 1010 1 6 4 4 2 4 2 3 3 2 6 2 13 3 3 4 3 1 1 3 6 2 2 8 2 10 7 2 1 2 1 4 4 7 1 Other Missions count JERS / ALOS (1991 / 2006) Radarsat (1995) Aquarius(2010) TOMS (1978) OMI (2004) Geosat Follow-on (1998) SeaWIFS (1997) MODIS (1999) DMSP – SSMI (1987) AVHRR (1981) Landsat (1977) SPOT / HRV (1986) SPOT / VGT (1998) TOPEX / Jason (1991) Ascatt (2006) IASI (2006) GOME-2 (2006) MSG (2002) Sentinel 5 Sentinel 4 Sentinel 3 (2012) Sentinel 2 (2012) ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Sentinel 1 (2012) 2001 EarthCAre (2012) ● ADM / Aeolus (2009) 2002 Cryosat (2009) 4 ● SMOS (2009) 4 2003 GOCE (2008) 4 ● GOMOS 4 2004 MIPAS 4 ● Sciamachy 4 2005 ASAR Image Mode 3 ● ASAR Wave Mode 4 2014 Meris 5 2006 AATSR 5 ● Radar Altimeter 5 2007 Gome 5 ● Scatterometer 5 2008 SAR Image Mode 4 2012 SAR Wave Mode 5 ● 1995 ATSR-2 5 2009 1996 Radar Altimeter 5 ● 1997 Scatterometer 5 2010 1998 SAR Image Mode 5 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● SAR Wave Mode 5 2013 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 2011 1999 ATSR-1 OCEAN 4 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 2015 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 2000 Radar Altimeter SST ECV O.2 Eumetsat Sentinels Earth Explorer Envisat (2002) ERS-2 ERS-1 The time component – the 3rd dimension ESA missions data => FCDRs => ECVs The Climate Change Initiative Programme The International Scientific Cooperation Page 21 International Scientific Cooperation • • • To succeed, the CCI programme must meet the needs of international Climate Research community and contribute effectively to the collective international response to GCOS, via CEOS and GEO. ⇒ Each CCI project (the contractor) shall meet the specific needs of a well identified, specialized climate research community by addressing the corresponding GCOS requirements Key elements of the international framework for this programme are: – – – – – – • GCOS: which represents the scientific and technical requirements of the Global Climate Observing System on behalf of UNFCCC and IPCC. International Climate Research Programmes, which represent the collective interests and priorities of the worldwide climate research communities CEOS: which serves as a focal point for Earth Observation related activities of Space Agencies in the GEO framework Individual Partner Space Agencies with whom ESA cooperates bilaterally EC and National Research Programmes which establish research priorities and provide resources for climate research community within Europe Individual end-user organizations in ESA member states and worldwide, climate research, monitoring and modelling practitioners who are active in the IPCC processes The ESA executive will ensure the necessary international coordination at programme Page 22 International Scientific Cooperation • Each CCI project team must implement the necessary international scientific coordination at project level. In practice, this means that • Each CCI project team (the contractor): • ⇒ Within Europe: shall take full advantage of existing results, ongoing projects, and future funding opportunities from national research programmes, from EUMETSAT and from the EC 7th Framework Programme, when planning, implementing and reviewing the progress of their CCI project. • ⇒ On the international scene: shall coordinate activities with nonEuropean teams, and seek independent scientific review of methods and validation of results, under the auspices of the authoritative international scientific bod(ies), most appropriate for each ECV. Page 23 The Climate Change Initiative Programme The implementation Page 24 “baseline” data requirement per ECV Page 25 CCI Data requests not limited to ESA missions Other Missions JERS / ALOS (1991 / 2006) Radarsat (1995) Aquarius(2010) TOMS (1978) OMI (2004) Geosat Follow-on (1998) SeaWIFS (1997) MODIS (1999) DMSP – SSMI (1987) AVHRR (1981) Landsat (1977) SPOT / HRV (1986) SPOT / VGT (1998) TOPEX / Jason (1991) Ascatt (2006) IASI (2006) GOME-2 (2006) MSG (2002) Sentinel 5 Sentinel 4 Sentinel 3 (2012) Sentinel 2 (2012) Sentinel 1 (2012) EarthCAre (2012) ADM / Aeolus (2009) Cryosat (2009) SMOS (2009) GOCE (2008) GHGs Distributions GOMOS A.9 MIPAS Aerosol OD & other props Sciamachy A.8 ASAR Image Mode O3 Total and Column ASAR Wave Mode A.7 Meris Cloud Properties AATSR A.4 Radar Altimeter Burned Area & Burning Fire Gome T.9 Scatterometer Land Cover SAR Image Mode T.5 SAR Wave Mode ● ATSR-2 Glacier & Ice Caps Radar Altimeter T.2 ATMOSPHERE ● LAND Sea Ice Concentration OCEAN O.1 Scatterometer ● Ocean Colour SAR Image Mode ●● O.4 ● SST SAR Wave Mode ATSR-1 Radar Altimeter ● ●●● ●●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● O.3 Page 26 ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●●●● ●● ●●●●● ●● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● Sea Level ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● O.2 Eumetsat Sentinels Earth Explorer Envisat (2002) ERS-2 ERS-1 ECV International Scientific Cooperation • All proposals have links with independent bodies: – IOCCG, IPCC, WCRP, IGBP, GHRSST, CLIVAR • All proposals are linked to European projects – EUCLIPS, EUGENE, EUCAARI, AMARSI, PASODOBLE • All proposal are linked to international Projects – GEWEX, GAW, IGBP, GCOS, GTOS, GLIMS • All the proposal have IPPC lead or co-authors in their team – Some proposals include non European scientists from US, Japan, etc..) Page 27 Conclusions • The ESA Climate Change Initiative is positioned at the crossing point between Science and Operation. • On the science side, one finds • • – Instruments calibration and algorithms FCDR – Geophysical products Validation and algorithms – Data merging / fusions ECV – Assimilation in Climate models for product assessment On the operation side – Multi-sensor products – Long time series – System design This is certainly a very comprehensive and thorough approach to tackle the development of Essential Climate Variable for Assimilation in Climate models. Page 28 Science and Politics Some considerations Page 29 Climate Observations Stakeholders, Users, Decision-makers Assessment Products Information Basic Research Prediction Operational Applied Research Attribution Climate Services Modeling Assimilation Observation, Data and Analysis (from K. Trenberth: Observational needs for climate prediction and adaptation, WMO Bulletin 57(1), January 2008) Page 30 Some final considerations • 2 degrees, 350 ppm, zero emission today • Floating houses ?? For whom ?? • Katrina Page 31 Floating Houses ?? For whom ?? Page 32 Katrina impact… • Nearly five years later, thousands of displaced residents in Mississippi and Louisiana are still living in trailers. • The casino shut down in the wake of Hurricane Katrina in August 29th, 2005 but reopened in the midst of Mardi Gras on February 17, 2006. (Wikipedia) Page 33