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Climate Change and Possible Impacts on Soil and Water Eugene S. Takle Professor of Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Agronomy Professor of Atmospheric Science, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Iowa State University [email protected] ISU Soil and Water Conservation Club, 12 September 2005 Climate Change • • • • • What is changing? How much is it changing? Why is it changing? How might it affect soil and water? What should we do about it? QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis JJA Daily Maximum Temperature Trends, 1976-2000 “Warming Hole” ˚C DTmax (JJA) Surface Energy Balance Solar IR IR T Soil Latent Conv & Cond Surface Energy Balance Solar IR IR T Soil Latent Conv & Cond Agung, 1963 El Chichon (1982) Mt. Pinatubo (1991) Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004 Carbon Dioxide and Temperature Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2004 (377 ppm) Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” (fossil intensive) 2100 QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/CO2/2004.htm QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. V Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research V V Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI) Sea-surface temperature QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. V V V Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688. QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. Sea-Surface Temperatures in August 2005 QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research 40% Probability 5% Probability Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report For the Midwest** • • • • • • • • Warming will be greater for winter than summer (+) Warming will be greater at night than during the day (+) A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples the probability of a heat wave Growing Frost-free season will be longer (+, 8-9 days longer now than in 1950) More precipitation (+) Likely more soil moisture in summer More rain will come in intense rainfall events (+) Higher stream flow, more flooding + already observed ** North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program is underway but results for impacts won’t be available for several months. Sub-Basins of the Upper Mississippi River Basin 119 sub-basins Outflow measured at Grafton, IL Approximately one observing station per sub-basin Approximately one model grid point per sub-basin Hydrologic Budget Components Simulated by SWAT under Different Climates Hydrologic budget components Calibration (19891997) Validation (19801988) NNR (19801988) CTL (around 1990s) SNR (around 2040s) % Change (SNR-CTL) Precipitation 856 846 831 898 1082 21 Snowfall 169 103 237 249 294 18 Snowmelt 168 99 230 245 291 19 Surface runoff 151 128 151 178 268 51 GW recharge 154 160 134 179 255 43 Total water yield 273 257 253 321 481 50 Potential ET 947 977 799 787 778 -1 Actual ET 547 541 528 539 566 5 All units are mm Yield is sum of surface runoff, lateral flow, and groundwater flow Climate Change Impacts on Soil and Water (my speculations) • Increase in CO2 – increase in water-use efficiency by plants and accelerated growth • Increase in night-time temperatures – Higher night-time respiration by plants – Higher soil respiration and loss of soil carbon – Less dewfall • Increase in daytime maximum temperatures – More heat waves Climate Change Impacts on Soil and Water (my speculations) • • • • • Higher absolute humidity More freeze-thaw cycles Decreased mean wind speed Altered large-scale weather patterns, storm tracks Changes in precipitation – Increased amount -> more soil erosion, more nitrate leaching – Larger fraction of total rain will come in heavy rain events and may produce more floods and droughts – Possible changed seasonality – Possible changed diurnal patterns -> changes in soil moisture Mitigation vs. Adaptation: Since we are already committed to a global warming of about 2-4o F over the next 40 years we need to focus on: • Adaptation to climate change for soil and water conservation in the next half decade • Mitigation of continued rise in greenhouse gases so our (great)n -grand children will have as many opportunities as we have had. • More dialog between soil/water/conservation scientists and climate scientists to help prioritize climate research efforts. For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting these slides (except some of my speculations), see my online Global Change course: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse Contact me directly: [email protected] For a copy of this presentation: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/