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DISAT CONTRIBUTION • Recent progress since Helsinki • Plans for the next reporting phase • Expected contributions to the deliverables and milestones in the DIP R. Ferrise, M. Moriondo and M. Bindi ENSEMBLES General Assembly PRAGUE, 12-16 NOVEMBER 2007 Recent progress since Helsinki • Redefine the method to fix durum wheat critical thresholds of impact, i.e. yield cumulative distribution from baseline climate (1975-2005) • Complete the procedure for generating maps of risk probabilities, for durum wheat, over the Mediterranean Basin • Definite the methodology to reproduce suitable areas for olive tree potential cultivation • Test an olive model for simulating development phases Plans for the next reporting phase • Adapt the methodology to reproduce olive tree potential cultivation area for ENSEMBLES probabilistic assessments • Complete the testing of olive model for simulating development phases • Test a simple olive model for simulating olive and oil potential productivity (Villalobos et al., 2006) • Define the procedure for generating maps of risk probabilities for olive and grapevine Expected contributions to Ds and Ms Deliverables – D6.13: Methodological report on the linking of preliminary probabilistic projections from the Ensemble Prediction System to impact models. Month 42 (Feb. 2008) – D6.14: Joint WP 6.2 paper on the use of probabilistic climate projections in assessing the risk of impacts in Europe. Month 54 (Feb. 2009) – D6.15 Assessing the uncertainty in projected changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the following sectors: health, forestry, flood risk, property damage, agriculture. Month 48 (Aug. 2008) – D6.16: Joint WP 6.2 paper: Impacts of projected changes in climate extremes over Europe to 2100: a review of key sectors. Month 54 (Feb. 2009) – D6.19 Report on the assessment of changes in regional weather and climate and their impacts in East Mediterranean. Month 46 with RT2B.3 (Jun. 2008) Milestones – M6.14: Completion of preliminary probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts using calibrated impact models: Month 42 (Feb. 2008) – M6.4: Completion of probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts, and impacts at seasonal to decadal timescales for the core activities: crops, water resources, forests, energy, insurance and human health. (WP6.2 and 6.3). Month 48 (Aug. 2008)