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Regional Knowledge Exchange on Decision-support Tools and Models to Project
Improved Strategies for Integrated Management of Land, Water and Livelihoods
22-27 September, 2013, Djerba, Tunisia
Potential contributions on use
of HidroMORE model in olive
groves vulnerability to CC
A. HACHANI, M. OUESSAR, A. ZERRIM
OUTLINE
Introduction
Materials and methods
Results and discussion
Conclusions and perspectives
INTRODUCTION
Olive tree
Importance of plantation of olive
trees
fluctuation of the olive production
Area (ha)
%
Number of olive
%
trees
Medenine
173000
49.9
3955000
44.9
Gafsa
69030
19.9
2700631
30.7
Gabes
67687
19.5
1353740
15.4
Tatouine
36800
10.7
801000
9.0
Total south
346517
Ministry of agriculture, 2001)
INTRODUCTION
Olive trees
Climate
change(CC)
Importance of plantation of olive
trees
fluctuation of the olive production
Temperature
rainfall
Green house
1
Objectives
Analyze situation related to climate variability and CC and
future projections,
Explore different climate scenarios and their effects on
water stress olive plantations,
Suggest ways and adaptation policies.
Study site
Location
Methodology
climatic data: Baseline period,
until 2030 and until 2090
collecting data
Soil map
Land use
map
Treatement
Images
Landsat 5 and
7
Geométric and
atmospheric
correction
NDVI
HidroMORE
Conceptuel Model
CMIP5 – The Fifth Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project.
The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) produce a
state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate
change.
CMIP5 promotes a standard set of model simulations in order to:
• Evaluate how realistic the models are in simulating the recent past,
• Provide projections of future climate change on two time scales, near term (out to
about 2035) and long term (out to 2100 and beyond),
Choice of model
NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) develops and uses
mathematical models and computer simulations to improve our
understanding and prediction of the behavior of the atmosphere, ocean, and
climate.
GFDL is developing a comprehensive global –high resolution atmospheric
model (HiRAM C 360)
HidroMore model
• HidroMORE is considered as an operational model allowing the
calculation of the superficial water budget with a limited number of
input data
•
HidroMore can detect the water stress of vegetation that can be
obtained by the soil water balance
Inputs & outputs
NDVI Cube
• NDVI images were calculated from Landsat 5 and 7 TM
images downloaded from USGS . The images were
geometrically and atmospherically corrected
•
For joining all the images as bands in a unique image we
have to create the images cube sized to the total area.
NDVI cube
Conceptuel model
Results et discussions
Climate analysis
•
Test Validation GFDL-HIRAM model
Climate analysis
25
Temperature °C
20
15
10
Observed temperature
GFDL temperature
5
0
Year
ETCi
PI
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
450
ETCT
400
PT
350
300
mm
mm
Calibration
250
200
150
100
50
1986 1987 2000 2001 2009 2010
Year
0
1986
1987
2000
2001
Year
2009
2010
Checking the water balance algorithm
HidroMORE.
The result of this comparaison provide an efficiency in the implementation of
the methodology made by FAO-56 and HidroMORE.
36
ETc adj map (Basline period)
433mm
ETc adj map (H 2030)
378 mm
ETc adj map (H 2090)
299 mm
Rapport ETCadj and ETC
Class
ETCadj/ETC
Perfectly suitable
<80
Suitable
60-80
Moderately suitable
60-40
Slightly suitable
40-20
Not suitable
<20
ETCadj/ETC
Slightly
suitable
Moderately
suitable
suitable
Baseline period
28%
46%
26%
Horizon 2030
19%
68%
13%
Horizon 2090
24%
76%
0
Adaptative Strategy
• Develop prediction systems and early warning of drought,
• Minimize the expansion of olive plantations especially to
marginal areas,
• Encouraging the choice of adapted varieties,
• Provide emergency irrigation in case of prolonged droughts,
Conclusion
The evaluation of water stress of the olive tree within the context of CC in the
South East of Tunisia (watershed of Oum Zessar, Medenine) was made using
hydrological modeling (HidroMORE model).
Model parameterization was based on already conducted studies in the region
while estimations have been made of the other case.
In comparison with the reference period (1996-2005) and following the increase in
temperature (1°C) and (5°C) and rainfall decrease of (5.4%) and (20%), ET0
recorded an increase of (3%) (9%) and ETCadj was reduced by (2%) and (18%),
respectively for the 2030 and 2090 horizons. Thus, it is expected that the land
suitable for olive cultivation will experience shrinkage and this cropping system
would become increasingly problematic.
.
Perspectives
Push climate analysis to more detailed levels and explore other scenarios
projections related to CC,
• In any work of hydrological modeling (such as Hidromore), there is uncertainty
at all levels. Thus, improvements can made ​through:
• Further refine the input parameters of the model
• Using multiple satellite images,
• Consideration of arrangements for collecting runoff and flood
• Integrate adaptation scenarios (supplemental irrigation, etc.).
Thank You For
Your Attention