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Is Australian agriculture the first casualty of global climate change? Steven Crimp, Mark Howden, Greg McKeon, Sarah Park and many others CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems The human face of recent changes • Samantha*, Simon* and their children have lived in a dust bowl for almost eight years. Limited and now zero water allocations have rendered their irrigated property in the Murray-Darling Basin dryland, making a mockery of harvests that historically yielded one tonne of wheat per acre . • Simon’s taking anti-anxiety medication and contemplating seeking offfarm work, while Samantha juggles three part-time jobs with the care of their children and household. • “My husband is a good farmer, an educated man, but he now questions every decision,” Samantha says. • The couple’s agribusiness bank manager regretfully admits that they are not alone. He says families in his region are “self-destructing because of the financial and personal pressures” – divorce rates are up, debt levels are crippling, and cashed-up operators are circling. Outback Magazine – next addition Agricultural production is influenced by a complex web of drivers Energy usage Demographic change Changing lifestyles Livestock consumption Climate change Desertification Competing land uses Degradation Legislative change Sea levels Agricultural production Ocean chemistry Freshwater decline Biodiversity loss Ecosystem function Resource limitations Globalisation & commoditisation Technology change Transport costs Political change Biofuels Crop production driven by demand for food, feed and fuel ! Crops used for human consumption Crops used for Livestock Crops used for biofuels • Historically we can see that the demand for crops (coarse grains) have been as a result of interplay between human and livestock consumption and more recently biofuels. • This interplay has changed and will continue to change over time. • Biofuels is a relatively new player on the block, however in 3 years, biofuel use of grain increased by 47 million tonnes, amounting to approximately 60% of the increase in consumption. Crop yields have increased over time, but…… 4.0 8.0 3.5 7.0 Yield (t/ha) Yield Yield (t/ha) 3.0 6.0 Western Europe Asia World 2.5 5.0 2.0 4.0 1.5 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 1955 19551960 1960 1965 1965 1970 1970 1975 1975 1980 1980 1985 1985 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 Year Year • Over the last 48 years crop yields have more than doubled (1.2 t/ha to 3.3t/ha) in response to improved management, technology and genetics. • A further doubling of current production levels by 2050 is required to match current growth in utilisation rates. 2010 2010 Food security: yield growth rate slowing Yield increase (%) Yield increase (%) Yield increase (%) 5 5 Asia Western World Europe 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 34% 15% ~0% 1 1 1 0 0 01950 1950 1950 1970 1970 1970 1990 1990 1990 Year Year Year 2010 2010 2010 2030 2030 2030 2050 2050 2050 Rate of yield growth are slowing • New Technologies, improved management and efficiencies will be required to maintain production growth at the required rate of 1.7% per year to double average production by 2050. • Many of the data products from ACRE will provide important information on CV or CC and are thus components to inform the development of resilient production. ACRE HECTARE Highly Effective Climate-risk High Resolution Sectoral sTrategies using Atmospheric Applications Research REconstructions Historical impacts of climate on production • For wheat, maize and barley, there is a clearly negative response of global yields to increased temperatures. • Since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of these three crops representing roughly 40 Mt or $5 billion per year, as of 2002. Source: Lobell and Field 2007 Australian warming accelerating • • 1957-2007 +0.19oC/decade 1975-2007 +0.22oC/decade 23 o Temperature ( C) 24 1910-2007 • +0.09oC/decade 22 21 20 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Source: CBoM 2020 Emergence of changes in rainfall variability • Change in rainfall variability between the 1900-1950 and 1950-2000. Source: CBoM Changes since 1991 McKeon et al 2009 Irrigated agriculture may be more at risk Historical % change in stream flow) • In regions where the historical climate trends match future projections some confidence exists in the direction and extent of future change. • Projected declines in southern MDB flows (15 to 20% decline by 2030) may mean supporting current irrigated agriculture to move to more rainfed production. • Regionalised policy intervention may be required. Source: ABARE, 2007 and CSIRO 2008 Industries in transition: Peanuts • Warmer temperatures and declines in rainfall have already presented considerable challenges to peanut production. • In response to these challenges PCA have recently invested roughly $200 million in developing new infrastructure in NT. Source: PCA Future global impacts on agriculture could be significant ‘Developing nations (A1FI): 42 developing countries may benefit from substantial increases in cereal-production potential averaging 17%. However, 52 countries with a population of up to 3 billion may lose on average 19% of their current yield potential by 2080.’ ‘increase in cropland at higher latitudes (developed countries 160Mha) and a decline of cropland at lower latitudes (developing countries 110Mha) with a reduction in prime cropping land of 135Mha but an increase in moderately suitable land of 20Mha’ Fischer et al. (2005) National winners and losers Some likelihood of increased summer rainfall but temperature will be a limiting factor Annual rainfall decline, strong increases in inland temperatures Some likelihood of increased summer rainfall temperature slightly less of a consideration National: interaction with other drivers • wheat is the major crop in Australia. • production exceeds domestic consumption resulting in about 80% being exported averaging 15Mt p.a. – 12% of global trade. • climate change (8 different models, A1FI scenario) interacting with increasing population and consumption patterns. • Official ABS population statistics (Series A, B and C: ABS 2008). • By 2070, high scenario (50M people); mid scenario (39M people); low scenario (33M people). • Future per capita wheat consumption was assumed to be between 300 and 400kg per person per year and exports were calculated as the difference between production and consumption. Howden et al. (2009) Future wheat exports ? No adaptation • with occurrence of worst case climate change, assuming no effective adaptation and high population change, Australia could become a net importer of wheat as soon as 2050 • at 2070 there is a 26% chance of Australia having no wheat surplus assuming no adaptation • worst case being a net importer of 15Mt/year – about the same amount as is currently exported 2000 Howden et al. (2009) 2020 2050 2070 Future wheat exports ? With adaptation • practical adaptations reduce the chance of having no surplus to export to 10%. • double the median surplus to 5Mt. • preliminary study has used conservative assumptions in terms of both impacts and adaptation effectiveness. Nor has it included climate variability, ongoing yield improvements, landuse change or market-based feedbacks Howden et al. (2009) Future rangeland production McKeon et al. (2009) • Pasture production modelling made possible using the AussieGRASS model. • Based on median estimates of climate change across Australia pasture production is likely to vary little in the higher rainfall zones but decline by up to 20% on the drier margins. Understanding the value of adaptation • Adaptations were most effective with small temperature increases (1 to 2oC), raising yields by 6 to 12% • At higher temperatures, further benefits are limited, particularly under scenarios with reduced rainfall. Source: Howden and Crimp 2005 Progressive adaptation Benefit from adaptation Transformation from landuse or distribution change New products such as ecosystem services Climate ready germplasm Climate-sensitive precision-agric Diversification and risk management Varieties, planting times, spacing Stubble, water, nutrient and canopy management etc Climate change Conclusions HECTARE ACRE High Resolution Sectoral Applications Research or Highly Effective Climate-risk sTrategies using Atmospheric REconstructions • The activities of ACRE could provide important insights: • Into yield-limiting factors under climate change, achieving positive yield trends whilst reducing inputs and unwanted feedbacks • New assessments of food security futures taking into account the constraining factors here and new climate change scenarios • Focus on managing climate variability through more effective delivery of useful information higher resolutions. • The people of the pastoral country in Australia...think a lot of the weather. Or, to be more exact, they think a lot about it. Of the weather, and of the rain which doesn't come when it should, or comes too suddenly and too heavily, they have not a very high opinion. [Francis Ratcliffe, Flying Fox and Drifting Sand, 1938] Climate Adaptation Flagship Steven Crimp Phone: +61 2 6242 1679 Email: [email protected] Website: www.csiro.au/org/ClimateAdaptationFlagship Thank you