* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download The AIACC Project (Opening) - global change SysTem for Analysis
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Hotspot Ecosystem Research and Man's Impact On European Seas wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Saskatchewan wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Criticism of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Years of Living Dangerously wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on Australia wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
The AIACC Project Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions & Sectors AIACC Africa Region Meeting Hartebeespoortdam, South Africa 10 March 2003 Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature (IPCC, 2001) Developing countries are particularly vulnerable • Significant exposures to potentially adverse impacts on crop yields, human health, water • Large share of population earns livelihoods from climate sensitive activities (agriculture, livestock, fisheries) • Large share of population lives in extreme poverty • Low capacity to adapt due to low levels of human, financial, natural, physical and technological resources; limited institutional capabilities Attention is focusing on adaptation • Climate is changing and will continue to change • Many are vulnerable • Adaptation needs to go forward in hand with mitigation • CoP decisions in Bonn and Marrkech – Invitation to submit NAPAs – Establishment of adaptation fund, other funds Developing sound adaptation strategies requires good science • Scientific investigation needed to answer: – Who are most vulnerable? – What are the causes of their vulnerability? – What are their options for adaptation and what are the consequences and costs of adaptation? • Answering these questions can help to identify effective adaptation strategies AIACC Partners • AIACC is a partnership among GEF, UNEP, START, TWAS, IPCC, and developing country institutions – – – – GEF provides the principal funding UNEP is the implementing agency START and TWAS are the executing agencies Participating institutions in developing countries have provided collateral funding – Additional funding comes from USAID, USEPA, CIDA and World Bank AIACC Objectives Advance scientific understanding Build and enhance scientific & technical capacity in developing countries Of climate change I, A & V in developing country regions. To investigate I, A & V and To participate in international scientific assessments (e.g. IPCC, MA) Contribute to National Communications, NAPAs and adaptation planning Means to achieving objectives • • • • • Fund regional research projects Provide training and mentoring Engage stakeholders in the project Link with National Communications Establish a network of scientists and stakeholders to endure beyond the AIACC project AIACC funds regional research • 150+ proposals submitted • Proposals were peer reviewed • 24 Awards made in 2002 based on – Scientific merit – Regional significance – Endorsed by GEF National Focal Points • $100k-$250k awarded to regional studies for 2-3 years of research • Regional studies add to scientific knowledge and capacity AIACC studies active in 46 developing countries • Each study involves a team of scientists from multiple disciplines – 235+ scientists from developing countries participating as investigators – 60+ graduate and undergraduate students – 40+ scientists from developed countries collaborating AIACC provides training • Global training workshops • Regional workshops organized by regional study teams • Additional small grants to AIACC participants (USAID supported) – Visiting scientist exchanges – Develop & implement own training activities AIACC Provides Mentoring Team of 10 AIACC mentors to assist throughout the project – Advice on methods, data, scenarios, models – Troubleshooting – Referrals to other sources of expertise – Encourage/facilitate peer review publication – Encourage/facilitate contributions to National Communications Stakeholders, Nat’l Communications, Networks • AIACC engages stakeholders – For input to objectives, approaches, evaluation of adaptations, review of outputs • AIACC links with National Communications – Each regional study making contact with relevant ministries, committees, persons • AIACC builds networks – Through participation in studies, workshops, “discuss aiacc” listserve, and web-based database and information network Commonalities among regional studies • Most are interested in – – – – Near-term consequences of climate change for people Interactions with other stresses or threats Human and social aspects of vulnerability Response strategies (i.e. adaptation) that would lessen risks from climate change AND address other more immediate threats • Has led many AIACC studies to take a “2nd Generation” approach to assessment 2nd-Generation Assessments • Emphasize understanding human side of vulnerabilities – Who is vulnerable to harm? From what? Why? • Explore multiple, interacting stresses – Climate change, extreme weather, population growth, land use change, urbanization, land degradation . . . • Evaluate responses, adaptations – Focus responses on causes of vulnerability • Engage stakeholders – Enhance relevance, utility, credibility AIACC Regional Studies in N &W Africa Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia •Agriculture •Water •Historical impacts of variability •Crop modeling future impacts •Irrigation water S&D •Adaptations Sudan •Human settlements •Agriculture •Vulnerability to climatic hazards •Food security •Environmental mgt adaptations Nigeria, Niger •Agriculture •Crop modeling future impacts •Seasonal forecasts Nigeria, Mali •Rural settlements •Agriculture •Vuln.of demog. groups to drought •Impact thresholds, risk analysis •Adaptations West Africa (0-30oN, 15oW-20oE) •Climate •Diag. eval. of GCM projections •Statistical & dynamical downscaling for W. Africa AIACC Regional Studies in Eastern & Southern Africa Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda •Human Health •Sensitivities of malaria and cholera incidence to climate; model & project future risks •Evaluate adaptive responses South Africa •Biodiversity •Predictive models of plant & animal responses to climate •Adaptation to conserve biodiversity Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania •Agriculture •Water •Land-use •Integrated assessment (MIMOSA) •Primary focus on land-use Botswana •Agriculture •Water •Land-use •Present water, food conditions •Int. Assess. of future impacts •Adaptations South Africa, Gambia •Water •Agriculture •Benefit-cost analysis of adaptations Sub-Saharan Africa •Climate •Diag. eval. of GCM projections •Stat. & dyn. downscaling for sub-Saharan Africa AIACC Regional Studies in Small Islands Caribbean •Human Health •Investigate/model health responses to climate (dengue) •Future health impacts of climate change •Adaptations Fiji, Cook Islands •Water •Coastal infrastructure •Natural resources •IAM, extended to include human dimensions •Adaptations Seychelles Comoros •Tourism •Natural resources •Direct impacts of climate change & SLR on tourism •Indirect impacts on tourism from effects on natural resources •Adaptations Anticipated outcomes • Advance science – Publication of peer reviewed papers, thematic reports that expand literature on developing country I, A and V – Citation of AIACC findings in IPCC & MA reports • Build capacity – Participants continue their research and link to policy – Increased numbers of developing country researchers engaged in IPCC, global change research • Contribute to National Communications – AIACC participants collaborate in preparation of Nat’l Communications – Use of AIACC findings in National Communicaitons