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Download 12. Climate Change Rohan Nelson
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Turning analysis into adaptation What are the research priorities? Climate Adaptation Flagship Rohan Nelson Resource Economist, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems with Steven Crimp, Mike Dunlop, Mark Howden, Peter Brown & many other colleagues …creating cognitive dissonance …changing how you see the world Outline • Climate change in Tasmania • …the science • Analysis paralysis • …and the science-policy relevance gap • How did we get into this mess? • …alternative modes of science-policy engagement • Closing the policy relevance gap • …and empowering rural communities Trend in Tasmania temperature and rainfall Temperature 1970 – 2008 Source: www.bom.gov.au Rainfall 1970-2008 Tasmania’s rainfall declining (1970-2007) Summer Winter Autumn Spring Tasmanian warming accelerating… • 12.0 1910-2007 • +0.08oC/decade • 1950-2007 +0.11oC/decade 1990-2007 +0.31oC/decade Mean annual temperatures Temperature (C) 11.5 11.0 2030 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 1910 1920 1930 1940 Source: www.bom.gov.au 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 5 CO2 emissions exceed all SRES (2000) Recent emissions 0 scenarios 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 CO2 Emissions (GtC y-1) 10 9 8 7 Actual emissions: CDIAC Actual emissions: EIA 450ppm stabilisation 650ppm stabilisation A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2 SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010: 2007 2006 2005 Observed 2000-2007 3.5% 6 5 1990 A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71 A1T: 1.63 A2: 2.13 B1: 1.79 B2: 1.61 1995 2000 2005 Raupach et al., Canadell et al (2007) 2010 Uncertainty across models & scenarios Models Emissions scenarios Projected change to 2030 relative to average from 1980 to 1999 http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au Tasmania likely to get warmer (av across models) • 0.6 to 1oC warmer by 2030. • Warmer in summer & autumn Projected change (av. across models) to 2030 relative to average from 1980 to 1999 http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au Tasmania likely to get warmer (av across models) • 2% less rainfall by 2030 • Less in summer & spring Projected change (av. across models) to 2030 relative to average from 1980 to 1999 http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au Are we causing it? Outline • Climate change in Tasmania • …the science • Analysis paralysis • …and the science-policy relevance gap • Closing the policy relevance gap • …and empowering rural communities The problem – in philosophical terms Humanity is suffering from a massive, institutionalized philosophical blunder. The pursuit of scientific knowledge dissociated from the more fundamental tackling of problems of living is, as we have seen, a recipe for disaster… …If academic inquiry were to help promote human welfare rationally, then at the very least, it would give intellectual priority to the tasks of: (1) articulating and clarifying problems of living; and (2) proposing and critically assessing possible solutions – possible and actual actions. Nicholas Maxwell, Emeritus Reader in the Philosophy of Science University College London Philosophy Now, vol 65, January/February 2008, pg12 Typical Budget Allocation – USCCSP NRC 2007 CCSP FY 2006 ($millions) 450 423.8 400 Estimated $25-30M per year. 350 Adaptation likely less than $10M. 300 257.3 250 233 202.6 200 164.8 150 100 75.2 50 25 0 Atmospheric Composition Climate Variability and Change Carbon Cycle Water Cycle Ecosystems Land Use and Land Cover Change Human Contributions and Responses NRC. 2007. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results. National Academies Press, Washington, DC. http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11292 The US problem (last 20 years) $22 billion $200 million Source: Back of the envelope estimate The Australian problem ($ per year) Australian Research Investment to 2007 $25 million $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $2 million $0 Projections Adaptation Source: Back of the envelope estimate – proportions are similar for Australia Translating impacts into vulnerability assessment 5) Community/industry adaptation Policy/decision options Scenario analysis Policy/decision relevance gap 1) Impacts Rainfall, temperature, species distributions, etc The problem in practical terms The right answer to the wrong question…. • The types of knowledge we have been emphasizing for the past decade or so, despite their significant scientific value, are not those we will most need in dealing with the challenge of climate change. • It’s as if the National Institute of Health focused its research on making better projections of when people will die, rather than seeking practical ways to increase health and life expectancy. Pielke and Sarewitz (2003) Wanted: Scientific Leadership on Climate Issues in Science & Technology p.28 Risk management meets uncertainty The problem of focusing on what we can measure… http://www.pritchettcartoons.com/ Analysis paralysis and limits to prediction Uncertain … & likely to stay that way for the conceivable future… Integrated assessment of vulnerability Exposure Vulnerability ? Adaptive capacity Rainfall variability High Medium Low Low High High Moderate Medium High Moderate Low High Moderate Low Low The challenge of uncertainty Adaptive capacity Generic capacity to adapt Attributes of management practices Capacity of rural households Adoption of specific practices Aspirations of rural households Uncertain future challenges Degree of uncertainty of threat Response to specific drivers National, State Scale Local/household How will we respond to this challenge? Outline • Climate change in Tasmania • …the science • Analysis paralysis • …and the science-policy relevance gap • How did we get into this mess? • …alternative modes of science-policy engagement • Closing the policy relevance gap • …and empowering rural communities Alternative model of science/policy engagement Tragedy of the commons Positivism Logical empiricism Self-interest & Centralised, non-cooperation reductionist knowledge Centralised expert management Experimental economics Altruism & cooperation Self-organised community NRM Integrated science & local knowledge Adaptive governance derived from Ostrom 1990 & 1999; Dietz et al. 2003; Brunner & Steelman 2005 Centralised expert management National Policy goals predefined Goals simplified to fit methods Standard methods are chosen & applied by experts across all contexts Experts allocate resources informed by reductionist science Communities asked to comment on expert solution Policy implemented centrally across large areas Policy adaptation avoided, difficult, with conflict Adaptive governance National & State Negotiate goal intersection, resolve conflict Transfer learning across local contexts Build on local communication & governance Regional (allocation, sanctions, monitoring, etc) Policy trialled in local contexts Integrate scientific & local knowledge Design local policy …from Ostrom (1999) Local Outline • Climate change in Western Australia • …the science • Analysis paralysis • …and the science-policy relevance gap • Closing the policy relevance gap • …and empowering rural communities The challenge of uncertainty Adaptive capacity Generic capacity to adapt Attributes of management practices Capacity of rural households Adoption of specific practices Aspirations of rural households Uncertain future challenges Degree of uncertainty of threat Response to specific drivers National, State Scale Local/household Converting analysis into action Vulnerability = fn( Impacts , Adaptation) Exposure & sensitivity Adaptive capacity & resilience Coping to maintain existing activities Transformative change to create new options …derived from Holling (1978) A nested model of adaptation [Adaptive governance to create a facilitating environment] Sectors & trade Trade policy National policy Industry mix Regional & industry policy Livelihood options Enterprise mix Agribusiness & NRM extension Adoption & adaptation Alternative management practices Field Farm Region National Global …& nested methodologies… GE models & Multi-agent IGM, etc PE models & total livelihood productivity Trade policy National policy Regional & industry policy Agribusiness & NRM extension Adoption & adaptation Rural livelihoods analysis Whole farm simulation & optimisation Capacity to change management (Rogers +) Field Farm Region National Global Converting analysis into action Vulnerability = fn( Impacts , Adaptation) Exposure & sensitivity Adaptive capacity & resilience Coping to maintain existing activities Transformative change to create new options …derived from Holling (1978) Translating impacts into vulnerability assessment Policy/decision options 5) Community/industry adaptation Scenario analysis Vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity 4) Social Coping strategies [Technical adaptation] 3) Economic Socioeconomic livelihoods analysis Policy/decision relevance Profitability, incomes, land use gap and regional economic impacts Bioeconomic, PE & GE models 2) Biophysical 1) Impacts Crop/pasture growth Biodiversity Agroecological models Ecology Water, energy, etc Production models Rainfall, temperature, species distributions, etc Transforming climate information Scale Output down Global climate models Limited area model Interpolation Crop & pasture Application models Bioeconomic models $ Analysis Prediction products Adaptation in wheat cropping More pasture Source: Steve Crimp More residue More fallow Are we measuring what we can change? Current exposure to climate variability Exposure to climate change in 2030 no data Farm incomes least moderate Pasture most Rainfall Regional impacts of climate change Heyhoe et al. 2007 Global agricultural productivity 2020s Increased agricultural productivity in mid to high latitude regions due to warmer & wetter conditions 2050s • Reduced in the tropics and sub-tropics due to warming and rainfall changes 2080s Source: IPCC 2001 Converting analysis into action Vulnerability = fn( Impacts , Adaptation) Exposure & sensitivity Adaptive capacity & resilience Coping to maintain existing activities Transformative change to create new options …derived from Holling (1978) The challenge of uncertainty Adaptive capacity Generic capacity to adapt Attributes of management practices Capacity of rural households Adoption of specific practices Aspirations of rural households Uncertain future challenges Degree of uncertainty of threat Response to specific drivers National, State Scale Local/household Rural livelihoods & household capacity Outcomes Livelihood platform Access modified by In the context of Social relations Natural based activities Trends Livelihood strategies Institutions Shocks Physical Organisations Financial H’hold capacity Composed of With effects on Capacity of rural Natural Resource households Human Social Resulting in Policy and other external influences non -NR based activities Attributes of management practices Livelihood security Environ’l sustainability Aspirations …from Ellis (2000) Adaptive capacity & substitution Human 5 •household •property •catchment •region •state •country 4 3 2 Financial Social 1 0 Region 1 Region 2 Physical Natural …from Carney 1998 Financial Human Social Natural Adaptive Capacity Physical (Nelson et al. 2007) Operator education Human capital Spouse education Health – self assessed Adaptive capacity of catchments High Moderate Low Regionalising adaptive capacity measures Human 5 4 3 Financial 2 Social 1 0 Physical Natural Self-assessed adaptive capacity Triggering collective action between communities & governments Western plains Human 5 4 Central slopes & plains 3 Financial 2 Social 1 Western plains 0 Central slopes & plains Slopes & hills Slopes & hills Physical Natural Integrated analysis of vulnerability Priority setting Exposure to income risk Vulnerability to income risk Adaptive capacity High Medium Low Low High High Moderate Medium High Moderate Low High Moderate Low Low Rural livelihoods context Vulnerability, Adaptive capacity Resilience Attributes of management practices Capacity of rural households Bonding Bridging Aspirations of rural households Codesign practical adaptation strategies Data & methods Prioritising action Human Financial Participatory monitoring & evaluation Physical Social Natural Inducing action, not just analysis http://www.csiro.au/org/ClimateAdaptationFlagship.html