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Transcript
Climate Change Science David Stevenson Institute of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University of Edinburgh Joint Statement from the world’s science academies for the 2005 G8 1. Climate change is real – the evidence is overwhelming 2. We can reduce the causes of climate change – no single solution, but needs major changes in human behaviour 3. Future climate change (in the next few decades) is inevitable – we need to start preparing now Global surface temperature 1855-2005 World has warmed 0.7°C in last century Recent warming is unprecedented The warming is happening almost everywhere Nearly all the worlds glaciers are in retreat… 1875 2004 Sea levels are rising – 10-15 cm in last 100 years… Sea-level from satellites: 4 cm rise in last 10 years Thames Barrier Usage 1982-2003 Spring is getting earlier! What is driving climate change? • Increases in greenhouse gases, in particular CO2 • Main sources are burning fossil fuels; also deforestation and agriculture • Minor influences on climate from natural processes (solar variations, volcanoes) Including natural and anthropogenic forcings makes the model produce the best simulation of 20th century climate Q: Why worry about climate change ? Q: Why worry about climate change ? What are our future options? ‘Danger’ level CO2 emissions scenarios Global temperature projections • Warming of ~2°C is almost inevitable – even with very optimistic emissions; • 2°C is considered to be the ‘dangerous’ level of climate change… Q: Why worry about climate change ? Q: Why worry about climate change ? Joint Statement from the world’s science academies for the 2005 G8 1. Climate change is real – the evidence is overwhelming 2. We can reduce the causes of climate change – no single solution, but needs major changes in human behaviour 3. Future climate change (in the next few decades) is inevitable – we need to start preparing now
