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Global Change
Have we reached
The Tipping Point ?
International Panel on Climate Change IPCC
• The IPCC reflect the views of 2,500 scientists including eight Nobel Laureates
• The IPCC makes regular assessment reports on
Climate Change 1990, 1991, 2001 & 2007 (FAR)
• The Fourth Assessment Report (FAR) summary
was published February 2, 2007 In Paris and the
full report was be produced later in the year.
Contributions of greenhouse gases
to Global Warming Worldwide.
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Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Chlorfluocarbons
NOx & others
source
CO2
CH4
CFCs
IPPC
66%
18%
11%
5%
IPCC 2007 – Radiative Forcing Components
IPCC 2007 - Carbon Dioxide Concentration
"The atmospheric concentration of
carbon dioxide in 2005 exceeds by
far the natural range over the last
650,000 years" (the period over
which measurements are possible
from ice cores)
Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
Carbon Cycle Giga tonnes
Temperature & CO2 over 450,000 years
CO2 and
Temperature
for 150,000 Years
CO2 over 1000 Years
CO2 Measured on Mauna Loa – Hawaai
1960-2007
CO2 Measured on Mauna Loa – Hawaai 2004-08
Solar Cosmic Ray cycles
Solar cycles of about 11y are too short to affect climate long term
IPCC 2007 - Carbon Dioxide Forcing
"The carbon dioxide radiative forcing
increased by 20% from 1995 to 2005,
the largest change for any decade in at
least the last 200 years."
Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
IPCC 2007 - Carbon Dioxide Source
"The primary source of the increased
atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide since the pre-industrial period
results from fossil fuel use, with land
use change providing another
significant but smaller contribution."
Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel
Methane Emissions
IPCC 2001 –Effects of Global Warming
IPCC 2007 –Effects of Global Warming
IPCC 2007 – Ocean Warming
"Since 1961 the average temperature of
the global ocean has increased to depths
of at least 3000 m and the ocean has
been absorbing more than 80% of the
heat added to the climate system. Such
warming causes seawater to expand,
contributing to sea level rise"
Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
IPCC 2001-07 – Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise - is IPCC too optimistic? (1)
Source http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/03/the-ipcc-sea-level-numbers/
Sea Level Rise - is IPCC too optimistic? (2)
Source http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/03/the-ipcc-sea-level-numbers/
Ocean Warming
New Research December 2007
A study by a consortium of scientists from
the National Oceanography Centre,
Southampton and other institutes states
“The average rate of rise of 1.6 metres per
century is roughly twice as high as the
maximum estimates in the 2007 IPCC
Fourth Assessment report."
Source http://www.southampton.ac.uk/mediacentre/news/2007/dec/07_177.shtml
The rapid melting of ice
in
Greenland, Antarctica
and elsewhere is
accelerating the
movement of glaciers
leading to a more rapid
loss than was previously
expected.
Sea Level Rise Belgium & Netherlands 0m
Sea Level Rise Belgium & Netherlands 1m
Sea Level Rise Belgium & Netherlands 2m
London UK Sea Level Rise 2100 ?
1995 Lower Rhine heavy local rain and runoff
IPCC 2007 –Temp. Sea Level & Snow Cover
IPCC 2007 – Getting hotter quicker
"Global average surface warming (this
century) is likely to be in the range
2 to 4.5°C with a best estimate of
about 3°C, and is very unlikely to be less
than 1.5°C. Values substantially higher
than 4.5°C cannot be excluded."
Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
European Summer 2003
• Likelihood of
occurring 140,000y
• 30,000 deaths
• Low crop yields
• Wildfires
• 10% loss of Alpine
Glaciers
•
Source Schar et Al., NATURE | VOL
427 | 22 JANUARY 2004 p333
IPCC 2007 – Hot Years
"Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 2006) rank among the 12 warmest years
in the instrumental record of global
surface temperature (kept since 1850)."
Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
The effect of temperature on crop yield
The effect of temperature on cereals yield
Sub Saharan Africa – Kenya a country in distress 1
• Mountain glaciers disappearing on
Mount Kenya and Kilimanjaro
• rain-fed agriculture accounts for
over 90% of food production
• Increased frequency of droughts
and floods
• Kenya's population growth rate is
still one of the highest in the world
at 30 % in 10 years
• Forest resources and soil cover
are being depleted
• Internal conflict over resources
Sub Saharan Africa – Kenya a country in distress 2
‘Kenya’s arid Turkana district, which borders Ethiopia, has
only two sources of freshwater – the Turkwell and Omo
rivers. The Turkwell, in Kenya, has been dammed to
generate electricity, reducing its flow downstream. The
Omo originates in the Ethiopian highlands and they’re now
diverting this water for irrigation. Lake Turkana is turning
saline and its level has dropped by 60 metres over the last
ten years. Professor Richard Odingo, vice-chairman of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
‘there will be mass migrations by people from Africa in
search of food-Europe should be prepared,’ he says. ‘We
are either going to prosper together or perish together
when climate change comes. They should not think that
the barrier between Morocco and Spain will stop people
from the south moving into Europe.’ Professor Eric Odada of the
International Council for Science,
Loss of Arctic ice could arrest the Ocean Conveyor belt and the Gulf Stream
The saltiness of the bottom current has already weakened in the last 40 years
Oily Politics
A letter to President George W Bush before the Johannesburg Summit in 2002 from political
groups and individuals asked him not to participate. Signatories included:•
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Fred L Smith and Myron Ebell of the
Competitive Enterprise Institute
Craig Rucker from the Committee for a
Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT)
Steven Hayward from the American
Enterprise Institute
Terrence Scanlon from the Capital
Research Center
Joseph L Bast of the Heartland Institute
•
funding from Exxon $280,000 in 2001
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funding from Exxon $35,000 in 2001
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funding from Exxon $25,000 in 2001
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funding from Exxon $25,000 in 2001
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funding from Exxon $90,000 in 2001
Deroy Murdock of the Atlas Economic
Research Foundation (AERF)
H Stirling Burnett of the National
Center for Policy Analysis
all funding details from an official
Exxon document
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funding from Exxon $150,000 in 2001
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funding from Exxon $20,000 in 2001
IPCC 2007 – Global Warming
"Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal, as is now evident from
observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice,
and rising global average sea level"
Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
IPCC 2007 – A rapidly changing planet
"Long-term changes in climate have been
observed including changes in Arctic
temperatures and ice, widespread changes in
precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind
patterns and aspects of extreme weather
including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat
waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones"
Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
Fiddling while the Earth burns1
“I think we have a problem on global
warming. There is a worthy debate on
whether global warming is caused by
human activities.” Birthday interview 06-07-2006
“I think we all agree, the past is over.”
Meeting with John McCain 10-05-2000
Some of the scientists I believe, haven’t they been changing their
opinion a little bit on global warming? Presidential Debate 11-10 2000
“ The best way to get the news is from objective sources, and the
most objective sources I have are people on my staff who tell me
what's happening in the world.”
Fox interview 23-9-2003
1 The
emporer Nero is supposed to have played the fiddle (violin) while Rome burned
IPCC 2007 – The train is on the move!
"Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or
above current rates would cause further
warming and induce many changes in the
global climate system during the 21st
century that would very likely be larger
than those observed during the 20th
century"
Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
Carbon Emissions - rapidly getting worse
• Emissions were rising by less than 1% annually up to the
year 2000, but are now rising at 2.5% per year.
• the acceleration comes mainly from a rise in charcoal
consumption and a lack of new energy efficiency gains
• 7.9 billion tonnes (gigatonnes, Gt) of carbon passed into the
atmosphere last year. In 2000, the figure was 6.8Gt.
• From 2000 to 2005, the growth rate of carbon dioxide
emissions was more than 2.5% per year, whereas in the
1990s it was less than 1% per year
• EU biofuel could absorb 0.12 % by 2010 and a maximum of
1.4% by 2030 but might compete with food requirements
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Source Global Carbon Project - 27 November 2006
IPCC 2007 – Model Temperature Predictions
IPCC 2007 – Stop the train I want to get off !!
"Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise
would continue for centuries due to the
timescales associated with climate
processes and feedbacks, even if
greenhouse gas concentrations were to be
stabilized."
Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
Methane Hydrate Clathrates – The hidden bomb
Methane Hydrate Clathrates – bomb or Energy?
A Lesson from History (4200 years BP)
The Akkadian Empire collapses
About 4200 years before present day North
Atlantic temperatures decreased by 2-3 °C
The Empire of Sargon of Akkad was
destroyed by Drought and Dust Storms
At the same time the Egyptian Old Kingdom
(Gizeh Pyramids) collapsed
Sargon of Akkad
The was a dramatic decrease in evergreen
cover in the Indus valley
Akkadian Imperial Collapse – the evidence from sediments
Akkadian Imperial Collapse – the consequences
• Severe climate change caused widespread human misery 4,200
years ago that we are only now learning about for the first time.
• After a thousand years of stability there was a sudden and dramatic
drop in rainfall, by 20%.
• The headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers that are fed by
elevation-induced capture of winter Mediterranean rainfall fell
• In the Akkadian empire the winds blanketed the northern wheat
fields in dust. They emptied out towns and villages, sending people
stumbling south with pastoral nomads, to seek forage.
• All of Upper Egypt was dying of hunger so much that everyone had
come to eating their children (Hieroglyphs in Ankhtifi tomb)
• In China, the Hongsan culture collapsed at this same time
• In the Indus valley evergreen forest dropped from nearly 20% in
2200 BC to below 10% in the following centuries.
Global Change
Have we reached
The Tipping Point ?
You
must decide and then act
IPCC site reference
Read these 18 pages before you
write your thesis
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change February 2007
www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
My site – for overheads
http://users.skynet.be/am269035/VUB_Global_change/inde
x.htm