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Global Climate Change: Past and Future Michael E. Mann Departments of Meteorology and Geosciences and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute Director, Earth System Science Center, Penn State University Straub Environmental Lecture Salem, Oregon May 31, 2007 `The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate ' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations), Second Assessment Report, 1996 `There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activity' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations), Third Assessment Report, 2001 `Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations), Fourth Assessment Report, 2007 OBSERVATIONS Surface Temperature Changes Gray: back to beginning of 20th century Boxes: back to mid 19th century Surface Temperature Changes Surface Temperature Changes Internally Consistent Changes in Other Variables CO2 Related? Greenhouse Gases and Warming ENHANCED GREENHOUSE EFFECT? TREE RINGS CORALS ICE CORES VARVED LAKE SEDIMENTS HISTORICAL DOCUMENTS RECONSTRUCTED GLOBAL TEMPERATURE PATTERNS Reconstructed Surface Temperatures Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001 From “Wikipedia” Reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures for the last 1000 years and instrumental record (black line) Mt Kilimanjaro Mt Kilimanjaro Thompson, L. G., Mosley-Thompson, E., Davis, M. E., Lin, P. N., Henderson, K., and Mashiotta, T. A., 2003, Tropical glacier and ice core evidence of climate change on annual to millennial time scales, Climatic Change, v. 59, p. 137-155. MODEL SIMULATIONS The climate represents a coupled system consisting of an atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and cryosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) take into account the full three-dimensional structure of the atmosphere and ocean CLIMATE FORCINGS Volcanism 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Solar Natural Crowley, T.J., Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years, Science, 289 270-277, 2000. 2000 CLIMATE FORCINGS Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases Industrial Aerosols Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001 Simulated Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001 Forced Model simulations Simulated Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001 Forced Model simulations Simulated Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001 Forced Model simulations Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Climate Over Past Millennia, Reviews of Geophysics, 42, RG2002, doi:10.1029/2003RG000143, 2004. Future Surface Temperatures Trends? Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001 Model Predictions Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001 Model Predictions