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CARBOOCEAN Annual Meeting – Solstrand, Norway
5-9 October 2009
WP17 Highlights:
Future Scenarios
with coupled carbon-climate models
- 5 european modelling groups : IPSL, MPIM, Bern, Bergen, Hadley
- Strong link with Euroceans (FP6-NoE) and EPOCA (FP7-LP)
- Ocean part of C4MIP
(Coupled Carbon Cycle - Climate Model Intercomparison Project
: an IGBP/AIMES project, Lead : Pierre Friedlingstein)
CARBOOCEAN Annual Meeting – Solstrand, Norway
5-9 October 2009
-1- We developed new complex tools
-2- We ran similar long-term experiments (A2 scenario, 1860-2100, and behind)
and archived model output in a common database
-3- We evaluated our models against observations (WP11)
-4- We predicted global-warming induced changes
in marine productivity
and air-sea CO2 fluxes / anthropogenic carbon storage
-5- We assessed the role of other forcing factors:
other GHGs, aerosols, ozone hole, dust deposition, …
-6- We analysed long-term commitments of carbon 21st century emissions
-1- New Complex Tools
… 4 (almost) existing models:
IPSL-CM4-LOOP, MPIM-ESM, NCAR-CSM, HadCM3
…1 new coupled climate-carbon model
BCM-C: ARPEGE – MICOM – LPJ – HAMOCC5.1
( the ocean carbon cycle in a isopycnic ocean model)
Cant (1994): Model (Tjiputra, Assmann, Bentsen et al. 2009)
[mole C / m2]
& Observations (Sabine et al. 2004)
Assman et al. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss 2009
Tjiputra et al. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss 2009
-2- Experiments & Model Archive
So far in C4MIP, only global CO2, ocean/land C-fluxes, …
as in Friedlingstein et al. 2006
In FP6-CARBOCEAN:
5 models : NCAR, MPIM, IPSL, BCCR, Hadley
All 2D, 3D variables, same format, on a web server
Model_Name --------- Simulation_Name -----------(annual mean from 1860 to 2100,
monthly means for 1890-1900, 1980-2010, 2090-2100)
DIC
Alk
Fe
NO3
Phy, Phy2, …
Zoo, Zoo2, …
…..
- Will also be used by EPOCA, and used to prepare IPCC-AR5
- New tools to access the data (plot, extraction…)
-3- Evaluation of models
(see WP11 talks)
- Nutrients & primary productivity (bulk, seasonal cycle, interannual variability)
Schneider et al. Biogeosci. 2008
- Air-Sea DpCO2, air-sea carbon fluxes (link with SOCAT)
Modern annual-mean
CO2 air-sea Fluxes
Schneider et al. in prep
Roy et al. in prep
- Atmospheric pCO2
Cadule et al. GBC in rev
-4(a)- Changes in marine productivity
(Steinacher et al. Biogeosci. Discuss. 2009)
Changes in marine productivity simulated
by 3 coupled climate-carbon models in 2100
-4(a)- Changes in marine productivity
(Steinacher et al. Biogeosci. Discuss. 2009)
Model mean weigthed by skill scores
Common features of the models:
 Large decrease in the tropics / North Atlantic
 Increase in the Southern Ocean
-4(a)- Changes in marine productivity
(Steinacher et al. Biogeosci. Discuss. 2009
Schneider et al. Biogeosci. 2008))
Relationship bewteen bulk PP and sea surface temperature:
interannual variability
vs long term changes
-4(b)- Changes in air-sea carbon fluxes
(Friedlingstein et al. JClim 2006
Roy et al. in prep)
All models predict a positive climate carbon feedback
(i.e. climate change reduces ocean and land carbon sinks)
+220 ppm
+20 ppm
Simulated atm. CO2
Additional CO2
due to CO2-Climate feedback
-4(b)- Changes in air-sea carbon fluxes
(Friedlingstein et al. JClim 2006
Roy et al. in prep)
CARBOOCEAN Models simulate very different feedback gain (g)
NCAR:
IPSL:
BCCR:
MPIM:
Hadley:
4%
6%
18%
20%
31%
very low
DCO2 = 1/(1-g) DCO2 without feedback
to
very high…
But have a similar effect of climate on ocean carbon uptake… (go)
From -16 to -24 PgC/°C
First order differences are due to the land carbon cycle…
-4(b)- Changes in air-sea carbon fluxes
(Friedlingstein et al. JClim 2006
Roy et al. in prep)
At the regional level,… consistent features among the different models
Model mean
Impact
of climate change
on regional
carbon uptake
(gC/m2/°C)
Climate-change reduces the cumulated oceanic CO2 uptake by:
35–95% in the North Atlantic (North of 36°N)
1–25% % in the Southern Ocean (South of 44°S)
But amplify uptake at higher latitudes (arctic ? Antartcic ?)
(for details see T. Roy presentation on Friday)
-5(a)- Impact of other forcing factors
- Other Greenhouse gases and aerosols (Cadule et al. GRL 2009)
… other GHGs amplify warming and the positive climate-carbon feedback
… aerosols cool the climate but increase the gain of the feedback…
because of their regional signature
on the land carbon cycle (largely mid to high latitudes)
-5(b)- Impact of other forcing factors
- Ozone hole (Lenton et al. GRL 2009)
Air-Sea C Flux
(PgC y-1)
(40°S-90°S)
1985
1990
1995
2000
1.0
0.5
In agreement
with inversions (Le Quéré et al. 2007)
and DpCO2 observations (Metzl 2009)
…ozone hole amplifies wind stress, increases upwelling of DIC-rich waters
and reduces anthropogenic carbon uptake…
-5(c)- Impact of other forcing factors
-Dust deposition changes
(Tagliabue et al. Biogeosci. 2009
Impact of a reduction in dust deposition
in 2100…
Changes in NPP
Changes in air-sea CO2 flux
(see also Segschneider talk in WP16)
-6- Long-term commitments
(Froelicher et al. ClimDyn sub)
Irreversible impacts of 21st century CO2 emissions on centennial to millennial
timescales,
Whereas regional perturbations in temperature and precipitation by historical
emissions and by non-CO2 agents are largely reversible within centuries.
In the High case, CO2 remains above 580 ppm and 30% of carbon emissions
are still airborne by 2500.