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Transcript
Climate Change Problem Solving
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2010
January 7, 2010
Class News
• Ctools site: AOSS 480 001 W10
• 2008 Class On Line:
– http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php
/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
• First Reading: Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global
Warming
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html
– And in particular two subsections
• Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect:
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm
• Simple climate models
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm
Today
•
•
•
•
Who am I?
Course Description Overview
Some Questions and Discussion
Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem
What is the Point of View that I Bring?
• Scientist and manager at NASA publishing in ozone
modeling, climate modeling, data analysis, highperformance computing.
• Worked on multi-agency strategies for climate modeling
and addressing the interface between the science of
climate change and the use of climate information by
stakeholders.
• Participant in national and international assessments of
ozone depletion and environmental impact of aircraft.
• Teaching this course for the fifth time.
What is the Point of View that I Bring?
• “Complex problems with no known solutions.”
• There is something of “text” evolving on the web
from my blogs.
– Blog data base.
– http://climateknowledge.org/Blogs/index.php/Main_Page
What are the pieces which we must consider?
(what are the consequences)
Security
Food
Environmental
National
RELIGION
Societal Success
Standard of Living
...???...
POLICY
“BUSINESS”
ECONOMICS
PUBLIC HEALTH
ENERGY
??????
SOCIAL JUSTICE
Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate
Societal Needs
information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, …
SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
From Course Description
• Identify the important elements of science,
policy, economics, public health, etc.
– Where should we pay attention?
– What do we know versus what do we believe?
• Identify and map the interactions between
these elements and connections to other
external elements
– How big is the problem?
• How is all of this changing?
Course Project
• Reflective of workplace …
– “Complex Problems with no Known Solutions.”
• Groups of individuals with varied expertise
• Responsive to “news”
– Relationship of news to science
• Project will provide recommendations, a strategy for addressing the
complex problem.
– What are first steps?
– What do we need to look out for as these steps are taken?
• Monitor progress // briefing during the course
– Use of community web page
– Development of wiki book
– Possible publication on widely accessed web site.
• Presentation at end of course
Course News
• Project
– Grade will be determined on the project
• Start to think about them – perhaps today
• Teams that bring together several elements of the project
– Should be no larger than 4 people.
– Should not be your friends that have the same background.
• Should be defined by late January
– I will provide a template for thinking about the problem.
• We will visit and re-visit the projects over the course
– That means I will provide management / customer oversight.
• Final presentations at the end
– Five or less small (1 page) writing exercises during the course.
Who are we?
• Name
• Major or Interest
• Any particular reason you wanted to take
this course.
• When some one asks you about global
warming, or you hear about global
warming, what is your first reaction?
Questions
• Do you think that the planet is warming?
– Is this warming consequential?
– Is this warming manmade?
– Can we do something about it?
Glimpse into the issues of Climate Change
• Some global climate predictions
The motivator: Increase of CO2
(Keeling et al., 1996)
Basic physics
of temperature
ncrease is very
simple, noncontroversial.
The prediction:
Note: There i
consistency
from many
models, man
scenarios,
that there will
be warming.
(1.5 – 5.5 C)
Also, it’s still
going up in
2100!
Projected Global Temperature Trends
2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990.
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
IPCC ‘01
Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2005
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/
See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the
Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006
Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/
See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the
Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006
IPCC 2007:
The last
~100 years
What parameters/events do we care about?
• Temperature
• Water
– Precipitation
– Evaporation
– Humidity
• Droughts
• Floods
• Extreme Weather
• Air Composition
– Air quality
– Aerosols
– Carbon dioxide
• Winds
• Clouds / Sunlight
The impact of climate change is
Water for Ecosystems
Water for People
Water for Energy
Water for Physical Climate
Thanks
• We’ll really get started next time!