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Download Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (1)
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Transcript
Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (1) "Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation" Motivation • Ambitious climate protection goals: e.g. 450ppm CO2eq – Strongly rising bioenergy demand – Biospheric carbon management: soil carbon, REDD, afforestation – Reduction of methane/nitrous oxide emissions from ag. production Science integration • Linking Integrated Assessment models, global agricultural models and farm household models • Top-down: Spatially-explicit land use change scenarios; global boundary conditions for household studies • Bottom-up: Improvement of global models (e.g. role of mixed systems) • Global models: IFPRI, IIASA, PIK, (PBL/IMAGE, …) • Regional cases: Indonesia, Brazil, Eastern Africa, Western Africa, India Global modelling: Uncertainty/Sensitivity analysis (Ensembles) • Assumptions about food/energy demand, land availability, land use change, technological change Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (2) "Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation" Household modelling • Introduce bioenergy production and other mitigation options to household models • Production decisions under new prices/cost structures • Food security beyond calories; livelihoods • Local energy security/availability (traditional biomass) Challenges • Linking annual to decadal time scales Outcome • Chances and risks of climate mitigation on food security • Livelihood impacts at household level • Options for improving governance / institutions (e.g. land tenure, compensation payments) • Accounting of carbon, water use, emissions • Investment needs in agricultural R&D Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (3) "Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation" CCAFS/ESSP science value • CCAFS: link to IAM, energy sector scenarios, land use change, emission accounting • ESSP: "grounding" of global models with local processes/constraints • Linking physiology, technology, economics, governance Development value • Chances for agriculture/food security: new markets, income, diversification, synergies between adaptation and mitigation • Risks for agriculture/food security: competition for land, water, livestock feed Structural value for Ag. science in CCAFS • Models as structuring elements for distributed studies • Linking and using distributed data CC science value • More realistic assessment of mitigation options • Synergies/trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (4) "Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation" Link to stakeholders • Policy-making: energy/climate policy, ag. policy, spatial planning • Strategic research planning/investment • Ag. Extension Partners: • CCAFS: • ESSP: IFPRI, ILRI, ICRAF, CIFOR, others? PIK, IIASA, PBL, others? Funding sources: • GIZ/BEAF call, March 2012 • EU FP7? • Foundations?
