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Adaptation to Climate Change and the World Bank Ian Noble The poor will face the greatest challenges from climate change. 100% Double in the 2000s? 80% Percentage affected 2 Billion people in developing countries affected by a climate related disaster in the 1990s. LDC 60% Dev'ing CIT 40% Dev'ed 20% 4,000 Number affected (Millions) 0% 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 3,000 Dev'ed CIT 2,000 Dev'ing LDC 1,000 - 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 40 to 80% of the population in developing countries versus a few % in more developed countries Guidance for TNA Identify vulnerable sectors Most development decisions Prioritise Local social, economic, environmental and political pressures Compile list of measures Prioritise the list of measures Developing Country Climate Change Development decision Other Lenders & Donors World Bank Investment flow UNFCCC Billions $ "invested" in developing countries annually Adaptation Mitigation IDA 0 WB 2 4 6 8 10 ODA Private 0 50 100 150 200 250 Climate change is already affecting natural and social systems And is relevant to project planning Implicit: “And your project could be next!” Messages to my Bank colleagues Ethiopia Climate variability is already a major impediment to development. A water rich developing country, but with GDP still tied to yearly rainfall variations 25 20 15 10 5 0 % 0 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 -20 1982 -5 -10 -15 -40 rainfall variability -60 -20 GDP growth -25 Ag GDP growth -80 -30 year Preliminary results from : A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia From Claudia Sadoff Ethiopia Including climate variability gives a different picture of growth prospects 3.50 •Smoothed (average rainfall) •A simulated 2year drought •Realistic variability 3.00 1% 2.50 Annual Rates Model of 12 years of growth using Smoothed 2.00 Drought 1.50 Variability 1.00 0.50 0.00 GDP Grow th rate Ag GDP Non-Ag GDP Ethiopia Using variable rainfall gives a more balanced outcome for investments in irrigation versus roads GDP Growth w/Variable Rainfall 7 7 6 6 5 GDP grow th rate 4 Ag GDP grow th rate 3 NAg GDP grow th rate 2 Annual Growth Annual Growth GDP Growth w/Smoothed Rainfall 5 GDP grow th rate 4 Ag GDP grow th rate 3 NAg GDP grow th rate 2 1 1 0 0 Base Irrig. Roads Irri&Roads Base Irrig. Roads Irri&Roads Climate change is a development issue – right now Should we use the term “climate proofing”? A climate risk approach Climate risk management means that the Bank should assess, and where necessary act upon, the threats and opportunities that result from both existing and future climate variability, including those deriving from climate change, in all project and country level activities. Sub text: Climate volatility is another factor that must be taken into account in development planning How are we going? Currently only 17 out of 73 CASs and 4 out of 35 completed PRSPs refer to the potential effects of climate change. Of the 17 CASs only 8 have a clear statement about adaptation Pitfalls • “Projectisation” of adaptation – Separates adaptation form core development planning – Often embroils adaptation in institutional rivalries • Not appreciating the immediacy • Endless loop of “better information” – Downscaling & impact modelling • Seeking the ideal at the expense of the pragmatic – E.g. Seeking only ‘adaptation with mitigation’ synergies Next steps • Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries • Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation • Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA Next steps • Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries – Simple screening tool – Readily available tools for ‘downscaling’ and impact assessment – Linking the biophysical and the socio-economic analyses • Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation • Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA Structure of AP Analysis Meteorological data Hydrological data Agricultural data Drought mitigation strategies Agro-meteorological model Crop yield and production, livestock losses model Climate change scenarios Rainfall simulator Planting areas model Hydrological model Probabilistic drought risk assessment model Direct agricultural loss estimates Macro Economic analysis Direct and indirect economic losses State fiscal exposure Risk financing arrangements Integrated Tool Next steps • Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries • Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation – Effective use of GEF resources – These are critical “pump priming” funds • Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA Next steps • Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries • Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation • Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as Country Assistance Strategies (CASs) and PRSPs – Approach with caution – Let’s provide the “carrots” first (e.g. the tools etc) before appearing to threaten with a “stick” Next steps • Improve tools available to project managers – within Bank and in client countries • Pilot projects to gain practical experience in mainstreaming adaptation • Move climate variability and change issues into planning tools such as CEA Ultimately climate volatility should be treated as other volatilities (commodity prices, exchange rates, social volatilities etc) in development planning A Screening & Design Tool for Considering Adaptation to Climate Change Screening & design tool • Target Audience: Project developers (national, bilateral and multilateral) and assessors; NGOs • Not community level decision making – This is a different, and critically important task – Seek compatibility and synergies • Purpose: Provide a first, quick check of potential issues that might arise in project design or implementation • Provide a lead into appropriate knowledge & experience • Increase awareness of the issues of climate variability and change Contact Ian Noble World Bank [email protected] Screening & design tool • Based on existing knowledge • Captured via expert systems to identify key activities that might be sensitive to climate variability & change • Qualitative climate change data based combining models and current trends • Qualitative assessment of risks and opportunities • Pointers to appropriate literature, projects, tolls and experts • Levels of advice provided – Red flag – adaptation issues are important and further follow up is strongly recommended – Yellow flag – some concerns, which should be checked – Orange – Not enough known to assess – Green flag – No adaptation issues foreseen – Blue flag – Positive action for adaptation Contact Ian Noble World Bank [email protected] A framework for a screening & design tool What do project managers need? User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options A framework for a screening & design tool Bring together the expanding database of information Document database Project database Additional tools Experts Good Practice Interpretation User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options A framework for a screening & design tool Provide a screening tool to guide user to appropriate material Document database Project database Experts Additional tools Location Climate parameter Projected direction of climate change User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options (eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc) Activities Climate parameter Climate sensitivit y Direction of climate change (increase, no change, decrease, unknown) Climate sensitivity for an activity Risk elements & Location A framework for a screening & design tool Based on best expert advice? Document database Project database Experts Additional tools Location Climate parameter Projected direction of climate change User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options (eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc) Activities Climate parameter Climate sensitivit y Direction of climate change (increase, no change, decrease, unknown) Climate sensitivity for an activity Risk elements & Location A framework for a screening & design tool What does the user see? Document database Project database Experts Additional tools Location Climate parameter Activities A series of rainfall (eg average rainfall, variability, temperature etc) questions Climate parameter about their Climate sensitivit project y Projected direction of climate change Leading to … User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options Climate sensitivity for an activity gdfsgfd gdfsgfd Direction of climate change (increase, no change, decrease, unknown) gdfsgfd gdfsgfd Relevant Risk guidance & toelements … Location Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change TACC Help about the question and about each option Ability to change ones mind Users are asked to identify the location of their project. This can either be via lat-long coordinates or pointing to a map The underlying climate change data base will be based on expert assessment of the various models and of recent trends. A composite map representing climate change for each variable over the next 20 to 30 years will be prepared. Project Indian Agricultural Reconstruction Run Northern Regions Version 2 Climate Summary RptClim Annual rainfall Rainfall variability Annual temperature Printed summary NOTE: The coding to identify the location and best climate projections has NOT yet been implemented in this prototype. Summary of climate projections for your site ... No significant change in annual rainfall is expected Rainfall variability is expected to increase moderately This will result in more frequent periods of unusually wet or dry conditions. Annual mean temperatures are expected to increase moderately (e.g. by 0.5 to 1 °C by 2050). R R Y Y Flag if climate change less than currently projected Flag Best Projection RptOutC We have identified the following activities in your project that may Activity Code be sensitive to climate change: Explanation A_AS_Seas planting seasonal crops, fruit, The rainfall is expected to change in either amount or vegetables or herbs. variability at the site of your project. You should check whether current crops and any planned introductions will remain suitable in the changed climate. ..... Higher temperatures are expected at the site of your project. You should check whether current crops and any planned introductions will remain suitable in the changed climate. A_ir_Tank construction of earthen dams or Your project site is projected to have increased rainfall tanks. and/or increased rainfall variability. Ensure that the design of the check dams and or eathern dams (tanks) will cope with heavier flows of water. A_ir_drip drip irrigation. Your project site is projected to have significantly increased rainfall variability. This could lead to extended dry spells. Drip irrigation is a very valuable coping mechanism, but note that if water supplies fail, then extended periods without use can lead to deterioration and blockage of the drip system. Discuss appropriate designs with irrigation engineers. A_ir_flood flood irrigation. You are planning flood irrigation, but temperatures are projected to increase significantly at your project site. The higher temperatures will increase evaporative losses and probably demand for water by the crops. Reconsider more efficient irrigation systems such as drip or sprinkler. A_ir_ShallowWell construction of shallow ground wells. Your project site is projected to have decreased Flag if climate change greater than currently To be added To be added R R Y R R Y Y Y G Y Y Y Y A_ir_drip 37 Y Y A_ir_flood drip irrigation. Author & Date Source Srivastava, R.C. and Agricultural Water Upadhayaya, A. 1998 Management, Vol. 36 Pp: 71-83 3 flood irrigation. Author & Date Goyal, R.K. 2004 57 Hillel, D. 2000 Your project site is projected to have significantly increased rainfall variability. This could lead to extended dry spells. Drip irrigation is a very valuable coping mechanism, but note that if water supplies fail, then extended periods without use can lead to deterioration and blockage of the drip system. Discuss appropriate designs with irrigation engineers. Title Summary Study on Feasibility of The authors discuss some factors affecting the economics of Drip Irrigation in Shallow drip irrigation in plain areas of Eastern India with good quality Groundwater Zones of groundwater at shallow depths. They found that no criteria Eastern India were being used for drip irrigation in this area, other than subsidy and interest on part of the farmer. Through a study of sugarcane, they identified yield grain ratio, electricity charges, irrigation requirement and depth of groundwater as important factors affecting application method. You are planning flood irrigation, but temperatures are projected to increase significantly at your project site. The higher temperatures will increase evaporative losses and probably demand for water by the crops. Reconsider more efficient irrigation systems such as drip or sprinkler. Source Title Summary Agricultural Water Sensitivity of The author studied the effects of change in temperature, solar Management, Vol. 69. Pp. 1-11 Evapotransipiration to radiation, windspeed and vapor pressure on Global Warming: A Case evapotranspiration in arid areas of Rajasthan. Based on the Study of Arid Zone of research, he suggests roughly a 14% increase in total ET Rajasthan demand with a 20% increase in temperature. Evapotranspiration seemed to be less sensitive, however, to net changes in solar radiation, windspeed, and vapor pressure. World Bank No. 20842 Pgs: 92 A_ir_Shallo construction of wWell shallow ground wells. Author & Date Source 4 Shah, T. and Raju, Water Policy, Vol. 3. Pp. 521K.V. 2001 536. Salinity Management for Sustainable Irrigation: Integrating Science, Environment and Economics Title Rethinking Rehabilitation: Socioecology of Tanks in Rajasthan Location .\KB - Sci lit India\Feasibility_drip_irrigation_Sriva stavaRC&UpadhayayaA_AgWaterMn gmnt_Vol36_Issue1_1998.pdf Location .\KB - Sci lit India\Sensitivity_evapotranspiration_ global_warming_Rajasthan_GoyalRK _AgWtrManmt_69_2004.pdf This report discusses the ways in which poor irrigation and .\KB drainage practices can result in waterlogging and salinity. It General\Salinity_management_irrigat looks at salinity control and waterlogging reduction as well as ion_Hillel_WB_20842_2000.pdf at early warning systems that can detect incipient land degradation. The paper emphasizes that irrigation can only be sustainable when used in the proper circumstances with appropriate measures. Your project site is projected to have decreased rainfall and/or increased rainfall variability. This may reduce recharge rates to shallow wells. You should take this into account in considering whether more shallow wells are justified within the region. Summary Regarding plans to rehabilitate 1200 large tanks in Rajasthan, the authors believe a change in thinking is required from viewing tanks as irrigation structures to seeing them as multiuse socio-ecological constructs. In recognizing various stakeholder groups, their social value is likely to increase. Location .\KB - Sci lit India\Rethinking_tank_rehabilitation_ ShahT&RajuKV_WaterPolicy_3_200 1.pdf 5 Sharma, A. 2003 International Water management Institute (IWMI), Working Paper 62. Pgs: 16 Revitalizing Irrigation Tanks: Empirical Findings from Ananthapur District, Andhra Pradesh The study assesses the reasons behind the decline of tank irrigation in Andhra Pradesh. The author claims that most current tank irrigation projects – including those carried out by the World Bank – are promoting a culture of communitybased management that diverges from traditional, historic patterns of tank use. He believes that innovative ideas and solutions need to be considered, and that tanks should be viewed as more than flow irrigation structures. .\KB - Sci lit India\Revitalizing_irrigation_tanks_S harmaA_IWMI_WorkingPaper_62.pd f 19 Selvarajan, S. 2001 Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) Pgs: 7 Sustaining India's Irrigation Infrastructure This paper provides a brief overview of the status of canal, tank and groundwater irrigation in India. The author claims that the deterioration of irrigation infrastructure can be improved through stakeholder participation and institutional development. .\KB General\Sustaining_India_irrigation_i nfrastructure_ICAR_PolicyBrief15_20 01.pdf 24 Sakurai, T. and Palanisami, K. 2001 Agricultural Economics, Vol. 25 Pp: 273-283 Tank Irrigation Management as a Local Common Property: the Case of Tamil Nadu, India This study uses twelve sample villages in Tamil Nadu to compare the efficiency of rice production between tank irrigation and well irrigation systems, and thus arrive at an appropriate management scheme for water. The analysis indicates that producers will use a combination of both tanks and wells, in evolutionary-stable equilibrium, rather than predominantly use one or the other. .\KB - Sci lit India\Tank_irrigation_managament_ SakuraiT&PalanisamiK_AgricEcono mics_2001.pdf Printed list of documents An identified climate sensitive activity – yellow flag An explanation of the rating Useful documents Most documents can be displayed from the Tool R planting seasonal crops, fruit, A_AS_Seas vegetables or herbs. Author & Date 48 World Bank 2004 Source Project performance Assessment Report No. 29124 Title Uttar Pradesh Sodic Lands Reclamation Project The rainfall is expected to change in either amount or variability at the site of your project. You should check whether current crops and any planned introductions will remain suitable in the changed climate. ..... Higher temperatures are expected at the site of your project. You should check whether current crops and any planned introductions will remain suitable in the changed climate. Summary Loc The project carried out large-scale reclamation of sodic soils, .\KB - WB thereby increasing returns to many small and marginal India\Uttar_Prade farmers. Large tracts of agricultural land in the command mtReprt29124_W areas of major canals had become increasingly waterlogged, saline, and alkaline over time. Through provision of effective drainage networks, improved foodgrain and salt-tolerant horticulture production techniques, and land tenure security as an incentive to farmers to participate, the project was able to surpass its physical targets. However, the project faced problems in implementation, partly due to institutional constraints. For various reasons, the project is not likely to be sustainable. The tool is being designed and implemented initially in Excel. It has a number of tools to help users to expand or modify the knowledge base. Later it will be converted to a web-based script. The tool and many of the documents will fit on a CD Adaptation in the Bank • Climate change is already a threat to development • A risk management approach (tackle current climate variability and climate change) • Learn through pilots and ESW • Develop good practice guidance and tools for project designers • Goal to treat climate volatility as an essential part of development planning