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Estimated sea level rise from 1910 to 1990. (a) The thermal expansion, glacier and ice cap, Greenland and Antarctic contributions resulting from climate change in the 20th century calculated from a range of AOGCMs. Note that uncertainties in land ice calculations have not been included. (b) The mid-range and upper and lower bounds for the computed response of sea level to climate change (the sum of the terms in (a) plus the contribution from permafrost). These curves represent our estimate of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on sea level during the 20th century. (c) The mid-range and upper and lower bounds for the computed sea level change (the sum of all terms in (a) with the addition of changes in permafrost, the effect of sediment deposition, the longterm adjustment of the ice-sheets to past climate change and the terrestrial storage terms). • • • • • • • Glacier – A mass of land ice flowing downhill (by internal deformation and sliding at the base) and constrained by the surrounding topography. A glacier is maintained by accumulation of snow at high altitudes, balanced by melting at low altitudes or discharge into the sea. Ice cap – A dome shaped ice mass covering a highland area that is considerably smaller in extent than an ice sheet. Ice sheet – A mass of land ice which is sufficiently deep to cover most of the underlying bedrock topography, so that its shape is mainly determined by its internal dynamics (the flow of the ice as it deforms internally and slides at its base). – There are only two large ice sheets in the modern world, on Greenland and Antarctica. Ice shelf – A floating ice sheet of considerable thickness attached to a coast (usually of great horizontal extent with a level or gently undulating surface); often a seaward extension of ice sheets. Thermal expansion refers to the increase in volume (and decrease in density) that results from warming water Ocean thermal expansion leads to an increase in ocean volume (at constant mass). The mass of the ocean, and thus sea level, changes as water is exchanged with glaciers and ice caps. Estimated rates of sea level rise components from observations and models averaged over the period 1910 to 1990. Thermal expansion Glaciers and ice caps Greenland Р 20th century effects Antarctica Р 20th century effects Ice sheets Р adjustment since LGM Permafrost Sediment deposition Terrestrial storage (not directly from climate change) Total Estimated from observations Minimum (mm/yr) Central Value (mm/yr) Maximum (mm/yr) 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.00 0.00 -1.1 -0.8 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.05 -0.1 0.25 0.025 0.025 -0.35 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.05 0.05 0.4 2.2 2.0 20th century effects: Greenland - changes in precipitation and runoff ; Antarctica - increased precipitation Ranges of uncertainty for the average rate of sea level rise from 1910 to 1990 and the estimated contributions from different processes. Climate System / Component Response Time • the time needed to re-equilibrate to a new state, following a forcing resulting from external / internal processes or feedbacks • very different for various components of the climate system – the atmosphere troposphere - days to weeks stratosphere - typically a few months – oceans: typically decades, but up to centuries or millennia • Due to their large heat capacity – the strongly coupled surface-troposphere system: slow, mainly determined by the oceans – the biosphere: may respond fast, e.g. to droughts, but also very slowly to imposed changes All All the All the All All All All All All All All All Widespread Water Concerns Drought is an important concern in every region. Snowpack changes are especially important in the West, Pacific Northwest, and Alaska. Water Issues in the United States Region Northeast Southeast Midwest Great Plains West Northwest Floods Drought X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Alaska Islands X Snowpack/ Snowcover X X X X X X Groundwater X X X X X X Lake, river, and Quality reservoir levels X X X X X X X X X X Source: Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The P otential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, National Assessment Overview, Cambridge University Press, 2000. Widespread Water Concerns Drought is an important concern in every region. Snowpack changes are especially important in the West, Pacific Northwest, and Alaska. Water Issues in the United States Region Northeast Southeast Midwest Great Plains West Northwest Floods Drought X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Alaska Islands X Snowpack/ Snowcover X X X X X X Groundwater X X X X X X Lake, river, and reservoir levels X X X X Quality X X X X X X Source: Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The P otential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, National Assessment Overview, Cambridge University Press, 2000. Ecosys tem Goo ds Forests timber, fuelwood, food (e.g., honey, mushrooms, fruits) Fres hwater Syst ems Gras slands Coas tal Syst ems Agro ecosyst ems Servi ces purify air and water, generate soil, absorb carbon, moderate weather extremes and impacts, and provide wildlife habitat and recreation drinking and irricontrol water flow, dilute and carry away gation water, fish, wastes, and provide wildlife habitat, hydroelectricity transportation corridors, and recreation livestock (food, purify air and water, maintain biodiversity, game, hides, fiber), and provide wildlife habitat, employment, water, genetic asthetic beauty, and recreation resources fish, shellfish, salt, buffer coastlines from storm impacts, seaweeds, genetic maintain biodiversity, dilute and treat wastes, resources and provide harbors and transportation routes, wildlife habitat, employment, beauty, and recreation food, fiber, crop Build soil organic matter, absorb carbon, genetic resources provide employment, and provide habitat for birds, pollinators, and soil organisms Source: Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The P otential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, National Assessment Overview, Cambridge University Press, 2000. Ecosystem Type Forests Grasslands Grasslands Semi-arid/Arid Semi-arid and Arid Impacts Changes in tree species composition and alteration of animal habitat Displacement of forests by open woodlands and grasslands under a warmer climate in which soils are drier Displacement of grasslands by open woodlands and forests under a wetter climate Increase in success of nonnative invasive plant species Increase in woody species and loss of desert species under wetter c limate NE SE MW X X X GP W NW AL IS X X X X X X X X X X Source: Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, National Assessment Overview, Cambridge University Press, 2000. X Ecosystem Type Tundra Impacts Loss of alpine meadows as their species are displaced by lowerelevation species NE SE MW GP X W NW AL X X X Loss of northern tundra as trees migrate poleward Freshwater X Changes in plant community composition and alteration of animal habitat Loss of prairie potholes with more frequent drought conditions Habitat changes in rivers and lakes as amount and timing of runoff changes and water temperatures rise IS X X X X X X X X Source: Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, National Assessment Overview, Cambridge University Press, 2000. Ecosystem Type Coastal & Marine Impacts NE SE Loss of coastal wetlands as sea level rises and coastal development prevents landward migration X X Loss of barrier islands as sealevel rise prevents landward migration X X Changes in quantity and quality of freshwater delivery to estuaries and bays alter plant and animal habitat X X Loss of coral reefs as water temperature increases Changes in ice location and duration alter marine mammal habitat MW GP W NW X X X X AL IS X X X X X X Source: Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, National Assessment Overview, Cambridge University Press, 2000.