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Prof. Chan King Ming Associate Professor Dept. of Biochemistry and Environmental Science Program Chinese University email: [email protected] 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 1 CONTENTS: 1. Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Effect 2. The Impacts of Global Warming 3. Kyoto Protocol 4. What can we do to help? 2 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 1. Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Effect http://www.ucar.edu/learn/1_3_1.htm 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 3 1. Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Effect Atmospheric CO2 Sinks (Carbon Fixation) : Sources: 1. Burning of fossil fuels and organic matters 1. Photosynthesis 2. Uptake by ocean 2. Respiration Other forms of carbon deposits, e.g. coral, cellulose. 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 4 碳的貯存和轉移 . Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Effect 1 5 KMCHAN 2017/5/24 Major sources of greenhouse gases: burning of fossil fuels, e.g. vehicle and power plant emissions. 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 6 1. Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Effect Carbon Dioxide Surge was created by human activities since industrial revolution 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 7 1. Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Effect Global Warming = Rapid Increase of Global Surface Air Temperature Caused by global carbon dioxide surge. 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 8 4℃ –8℃ surge 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 9 1. Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Effect Q What contributed to the heat energy absorption in molecules in the atmosphere? Global Warming Potentials, GWP, stability in atmosphere: Carbon Dioxide = 1 (?) Methane = 21 (12 year) Nitrous Oxide = 310 (120 years) CFC-11 = 4,600 (45 years) CFC-12 = 10,600 (100 years) http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 10 2. The Impacts of global Warming Arctic 1979 Arctic perennial sea ice has been diminishing at a rate of 9% per decade. The ice of frozen freshwater on Greenland melts to dilute and lower the salinity of the arctic ocean. This would have significant effects (slower or stop) on the ocean conveyor. Ice from land could raise sea level Reduced ice from ocean changes currents Arctic 2003 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 11 How would the climate change if the Gulf Stream shut down? A shut down of the Gulf Stream would suddenly decrease the amount of heat in the North Atlantic, leading to much colder temperatures in Europe and North America. 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 12 2. The Impacts of global Warming Even if not killed… Resting & Migration Reduction of sea ice has impact on populations of marine mammals, they use ice floes for resting, molting and giving birth. Sardine Poor Cod Bearded Seal Walrus Anchovy 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 13 2. The Impacts of global Warming Flowering & Feeding Predators follow their prey Temporal mismatch of prey and predator = “phenological disjunction” non-migratory Great Tit (Parus major) and migratory Pied Flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) Reproductive success ↓ due to changing availability of caterpillar food supplies. Also affected by phenological changes of forest due to climate change and air pollution 71% of UK butterfly species are reported to be declining Ficedula hypoleuca 2017/5/24 KMCHAN Parus major 14 2. The Impacts of global Warming Abstract from the 17th Global Warming Conference, April, 2006. In 2003, the World Conservation Union's Red List said more than 12,000 species (out of 40,000 assessed) faced some extinction risk, including one bird in eight, 13% of the world's flowering plants, a quarter of all mammals. 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 15 The Impacts of global Warming 1. Reduction of biodiversity: • • Losing Habitats due to temperature rises Reduction of freshwater supply trapped in mountains 2. Extreme weathers: more storms, floods, droughts… 3. More diseases • Endemic diseases increasing health risks 4. Unpredictable climate change • • 2017/5/24 Buffering power of planet earth is lowered, leading to unforeseeable climate change leading to fluctuating economy, e.g. Hurricanes in Mexico Bay are threatening oil prices to surge, drought lead to depletion of resources supply, etc……… KMCHAN 2. The Impacts of global Warming 16 Effects of global warming Effects of Global warming Economy Human health Phytopl ankton populat ion Terrestrial life Fish population Marine life East and west animal Agriculture Coral North pole and south pole animals Food Climatic supply change 3. Kyoto Protocol Abstract from the 17th Global Warming Conference, April, 2006. .. today‘s atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are the highest in 650,000 years. Antarctic climate and concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) were tightly coupled. … CO2 seemed to be confined between bounds of about 180 ppmv (parts per million by volume) in glacial periods and 280 ppmv in inter-glacials; …… Today is 380 ppmy and is rising…. 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 18 3. Kyoto Protocol 京都協定 The Kyoto Protocol, 1997 1. Took effect in February, 2005. Obligates countries to observe target figures for green house gas reduction. 2. Advanced nations should reduce emissions of 6 gases by an average of 6-8% (relative to 1990 levels) over the five year period from 2008 to 2012. 3. Kyoto Mechanisms : Scheme for Trading Green House Gas Emissions Rights and encourage international cooperations to achieve carbon neutral 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 19 History: Emission Trading Clean Development Mechanism 3. Kyoto Protocol Country Target (1990** - 2008/2012) EU-15*, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Monaco, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland -8% US*** -7% Canada, Hungary, Japan, Poland -6% Croatia -5% New Zealand, Russian Federation, Ukraine 0 Norway +1% Australia +8% Iceland +10% 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 21 World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2001 3. Kyoto Protocol (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide) 1990 2000 2001 United States 4,989 5,787 5,692 (5,800 in 2006) Canada 473 581 569 Mexico 308 364 352 United Kingdom 600 553 563 France 374 401 396 Germany 995 828 819 Italy 415 443 445 Netherlands 211 228 248 Japan 987 1,138 1,158 Australia/New Zealand 294 387 398 Russia 2,405 1,570 1,614 China 2,262 2,861 3,050 (6,200 in 2006) India 561 914 917 South Korea 234 425 443 Turkey 129 184 184 2017/5/24 Brazil 250 343 347 23,536 23,899 Total World 21,563 KMCHAN 22 3. Kyoto Protocol 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 23 History: Emission Trading The global carbon market Carbon dioxide emission trading 1. Since carbon dioxide is the principal greenhouse gas, people speak simply of trading in carbon. 2. Carbon is now tracked and traded like any other commodity. This is known as the "carbon market." 3. Each country and company must set its own targets (set ceiling) Kyoto Mechanisms: 1. Joint Implementation (JI) 2. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) 3. Emission Trading 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 27 3. Kyoto Protocol 2007 UN Climate Change Conference Result (Kyoto II): Road Map by 2009 for all countries? Obama VS Bush? 2017/5/24 KMCHAN http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7120952.stm 28 http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/CMI_R esources_new_files/CMI_Wedge_Game_Jan_2 007.pdf http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resource s/stabwedge.htm http://www.ctenergyeducation.com/images/Wedges_Concept_Game_Materials_July05.pdf 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 29 Wedge Strategies: Efficiency (reduced miles Nuclear energy traveled, increased Renewables (e.g. building and electricity solar, wind, hydrogen) efficiency) Biostorage (e.g. forest Conservation (reduced and soil storage) transport) Fossil-Fuel-Based (fuel switching, carbon capture) http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/CMI_Reso urces_new_files/CMI_Wedge_Game_Jan_2007.pdf 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 30 A question for you Hong Kong is hotter than global trend in recent years! Why? Leung et al., 2004. Climate Change in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Observatory Technical Note No.107. HKSAR Government. 41 p. 2017/5/24 31 KMCHAN http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/data/files/GHG_trend_1990_2005.pdf 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 4. What can we do to help? 32 http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/data/files/GHG_signifacnce_1990_2005.pdf 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 4. What can we do to help? 33 4. What can we do to help? Our Power Plants are using coal or Natural gas as their major fossil fuel to generate electricity! Gas-fired Plants under construction Gas-fired Plants planned CLP Plants in Castle Peak. Scheme of Control Agreement 2017/5/24 KMCHAN HK Electric Plants in Lamma Island. 34 Table of Progress in Achieving the 2010 Targets 1997 Emission (tonnes) 2005 Emission (tonnes) Changes 1997-2005 2010 Targets SO2 64 500 84 600 +31% -40% NOX 110 000 93 800 -15% -20% RSP 11 200 7 200 -36% -55% VOC 54 400 40 200 -26% -55% 2017/5/24 KMCHAN http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/misc/ehk07/english/air/index.htm#2 35 4. What can we do to help? USE RENEWABLE ENERGY AND NUCLEAR POWER 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 36 WHAT CAN WE DO TO HELP ?? Carbon audit Low carbon Living Conserve rural area, plant more trees. Practice life-style of health and sustainability (LOHA S), e.g. 3R, use MTR, stop using tungsten light-bulbs, save water, etc. 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 37 Summary Carbon dioxide emission exceeds the normal range and is rising, together with global temperature The impacts are visible, cannot be stopped and the situation is getting worse We are causing global warming and we have to act on saving our planet earth! 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 38 Discussion: 1. What’s Carbon neutral? What can we do to achieve Carbon neutral or carbon compensation? 2. Practicing wedge strategies: audit and plan for low carbon living in your school/firm/ organization/and at home! 3. Is carbon tax more useful (fair?) than trading? 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 39 Further Readings 1. Christianson, Gale (1999) Greenhouse: The 200- Year Story of Global Warming. Walker & Company, New York. Penguin Books, 305p. 2. Flannery, Tim (2006) We Are The Weather Makers, The Story Of Global Warming. Text Publishing Co., 272p. 3. Gore, Al (2006) An Inconvenient Truth. Rodale, Inc., New York, NY., 327p. 4. Houghton, John (2004) Global Warming. Third Ed., Cambridge University Press, 351p. 2017/5/24 KMCHAN 40