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Impacts of climate change on Australian marine life Dr Martina Doblin, Senior Research Fellow University of Technology Sydney A presentation prepared for the NSW Department of Education and Training, August 2009 What’s so special about the ocean? • Life in the ocean has been evolving 2.7 B years longer than on land Earth is 79% ocean! • There are about 40 phyla (major groups of organisms) in the ocean and at least 15 of them are found only in the ocean • BUT, far fewer biological changes identified in the oceans and freshwater systems as a result of climate change (<0.3% of terrestrial systems) Image source: wikipedia What’s so special about plankton? Source: Dr Lisa Drake They keep the Earth livable! • Responsible for >40% of global photosynthesis • Help maintain processes that regulate global climate and cycle essential elements (such as carbon, nitrogen and water) 2007, Warrnambool • ASPAB Form the base of the foodweb What could happen? Photo: Miriam Godfrey Source: Miriam Godfrey; www. carleton.serc How is climate change affecting the ocean? Source: CSIRO Ocean circulation is changing Source: CSIRO Long term monitoring along 110°E along 154°E 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 20 latitude (°S) 30 latitude (°S) 30 Rottnest Island 20 40 Port Hacking 40 Maria Island 50 50 2 4 6 8 time (month of year) 10 12 2 4 6 8 time (month of year) 10 12 Surface warming 26 26 surface temperature in July 24 24 22 22 temperature (°C) temperature (°C) surface temperature in January 20 18 16 14 20 18 16 14 Maria Island Port Hacking Rottnest Island 12 10 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 time (year) 12 10 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 time (year) Temperature increase over time, but only in summer Change in seasonal temperature and timing 0 1953 - 1963 1953-1963 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0 1997-2007 -20 -40 -60 25 24.5 24 23.5 23 22.5 22 21.5 21 20.5 20 19.5 19 18.5 18 17.5 17 16.5 16 15.5 15 14.5 14 13.5 13 12.5 12 -80 1997 - 2007 -100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 What is this equation? nitrate SUNLIGHT 106CO2 + 122H2O + 16NO3- + PO43- + 19H+ (CH2O) and 106 (NH3) H3PO4 + 138O2 16 phosphate as well as other micronutrients such as silicate (Si) and iron (Fe) Nutrient ratios in south-eastern Australian waters 6 6 5 5 4 4 Nitrate : Silicate 3 (molar ratio) 3 2 2 1 1 0 1940 Thompson et al, in review 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 Time (year) 1990 2000 2010 Nutrient ratios in south-eastern Australian waters 6 12 Maria Island: all depths, annual mean 5 10 4 8 Si Silicate (µM) Nitrate (µM) 3 6 2 4 NO3 1 0 1940 Thompson et al, in review 2 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Time (year) Decreased silicate relative to nitrate 2010 Changes in nutrients will lead to changes in biodiversity and function Source: www.microscopy-uk.org.uk Changing species composition Pigment (µg L-1) or Pigment ratio 1996-97 mean 1997-98 mean 2004-05 mean % change 1996 to 2004 chlorophyll a 0.66 1.36 2.00 203 peridinin 0.011 0.26 0.67 5991 fucoxanthin† 0.111 0.123 0.263 137 peridinin:chl-a 0.023 0.148 0.290 1161 fucoxanthin:chla 0.169 0.108 0.152 -11 (µg:µg) † failed Kolmogorov – Smirnov test for normality & passed Levene median test for equal variance. Increased prevalence of red tides Sources: www.carleton.serc ; www.microscopy-uk.org.uk How does this all fit together? Less rain Surface warming Decreased Si Summary • Evidence of: - surface warming - extended autumn season - altered nutrient ratios in south-eastern Australia (decreased availability of Si) - changes in abundance and species composition of phytoplankton • Functioning of the ocean will change with many cascading effects including those on surfers, swimmers, seafood eaters Basically, this will impact you! Thanks - Peter Ralph, University of Technology, Sydney Tim Ingleton, NSW Dept. of Environment and Climate Change David Kuo, University of Technology, Sydney research intern Tim Pritchard, NSW Dept. of Environment and Climate Change Monitoring teams 2007, Warrnambool Source:ASPAB www.microscopy-uk.org.uk Potential climate change impacts on marine phytoplankton • • • Increased CO2 and altered DIC speciation Elevated UV • Higher temperatures • • • • • Reduced mixed layer depth Changes in ocean currents & circulation • • Increased dissolution of calcifying coccolithophorids Increased prevalence of species with UV protection Changes in phytoplankton species composition Altered phenology (seasonal timing) Altered primary production Range shifts The big questions The NSW IMOS goal is to examine the physical and ecological interactions of the East Australian Current and its eddy field with coastal waters, to assess the synergistic impacts of urbanization and climate change. • Biological response to oceanographic and climate events Biogeochemical—carbon cycling, including C export Ecological—what are the implications of changes in the quantity and quality of food at the base of the foodweb to higher trophic levels? Ecosystem function and goods & services Ocean observations oceanographic cruises Limited time series Before IMOS, no coordinated sampling IMOS infrastructure Spatial coverage Depth resolution Temporal resolution Limitations Moorings poor good excellent chemical and biological sensors limited at present Gliders good to excellent excellent excellent (intermittent) limited sensors due to payload, power and space issues Satellite remote sensing excellent (cloud cover) Poor (deep chl-a max) good need in situ optical data to tune algorithms in coastal waters Primary producer observations • • • • • Chl-a fluorescence Ocean colour CDOM Backscatter PAR • Dissolved oxygen • Photosynthetic rates • 14C fixation • POC/PON • HPLC pigments • Species composition Continuous Plankton Recorder* Microscope counts Flow cytometer counts • Genomics/metabolomics • Elemental isotopes • Sediment traps In vivo fluorescence • Fluorescence estimates chlorophyll-a without pigment extraction (Lorenzen 1966)—highly sensitive and used over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales to be a universal indicator of phytoplankton biomass • Fluorescence yield is variable and dependent on light, cellular nutrient status, temperature, confounded by CDOM can introduce significant errors ANFOG Biooptical data • Other parameters needed for interpreting fluorescence CDOM distribution Backscatter distribution • Bloom 2/3 along transect • Some CDOM/particulate interference at start of transect Photosynthetic rates Maria Island: chlorophyll a 1997 – 2006* Spring growth rates Mean monthly chla data 0.35 0.30 0.8 0.25 0.7 -1 chlorophyll a (µg L ) 0.20 0.15 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 • Decline in spring biomass Time average 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 0.5 -1 0.40 growth rate (month ) 0.45 • Slower growth of spring bloom 0.1 Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Time *The data were acquired using the GES-DISC Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure (Giovanni) as part of the NASA's Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC)." Implications and future research • Implications include: - temporal mismatch between trophic levels causing a change in synchrony of primary, secondary and tertiary production - changing species composition alters food quality for higher trophic levels, potentially leading to less fish production • Challenge is to not only describe patterns, but to make predictions and test hypotheses about cascading foodweb effects ASPAB 2007, Warrnambool Potential climate change impacts on marine phytoplankton • • Increased CO2 and altered DIC speciation Elevated UV • Higher temperatures • • Reduced mixed layer depth Changes in ocean currents & circulation Increased dissolution of calcifying coccolithophorids Increased prevalence of species with UV protection Changes in phytoplankton species composition Altered phenology (seasonal timing) Altered primary production Changes in distribution: range shifts