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The latest science on emissions , projected temperature rises and targets The Cancun agreement as it stands may commit us to 6 °C rise this century. 'Ecocide'. Bolivia's President Evo Morales Update on global emissions rate BP 2007 UN 2007 P. Friedlingstein1*, et al 2010 Nature Update on atmospheric concentrations Update on temperature rise Global temperature is rising as fast in the last decade as in the previous two 2010 – highest global 12 month running mean instrumental temperature since records began Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo (2010), Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004 Dec 14th Update on temperature target 2°C no longer considered to be safe Knuti and Hegerl 2008 Nature Geosciences By 2300 global warming could produce lethal temperatures affecting most of the population Sherwood and Huber PNAS May 25, 2010 vol. 107 no. 21 9552-9555 •Combustion of all available fossil fuels could produce 2.75 doublings of CO2 by 2300 . With a climate sensitivity of 4.5 °C this would give 12 °C warming (Montenegro et al (2007) Geophys. Res. Lett. 34:L19707) . •Temperatures >35 °C for extended periods induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals. •While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7 °C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. • With 11–12 °C warming, such regions would affect the majority of the human population as currently distributed. •Recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless warming can be halted. Most of central and eastern USA; much of South America , North Africa, Middle East and Australia and the Indian subcontinent uninhabitable. Sherwood and Huber PNAS May 25, 2010 vol. 107 no. 21 9552-9555 Update on global target carbon budget. How much carbon can burn from 2009 until 2050 and still have a 3 in 4 chance of staying beneath 2oC? Mean estimate 190 billion tonnes of carbon 2008 emissions 9 btc = 21 years to spend the 41 years budget Emissions grew at 3.3% p.a over the five years prior to 2009 Remaining reserves: gas 600 btc, oil 800 btc, coal 1800 btc 94% of fossil fuel reserves must remain in the ground at the end of 2050 after Schmidt, G and Archer, D “Too much of a bad thing” Nature April 2009 1 EJ = 1 exajoule or 1018 joules or ∼163 million barrels of oil. Global potential of available renewables and fossil fuels 1: Data referring to global energy consumption of 390 EJ in 1997, data from M. Fischedick, O. Langniß, J. Nitsch: „Nach dem Ausstieg – Zukunftskurs Erneuerbare Energien“, S. Hirzel Verlag, 2000 2: Data source: German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources. Conclusion We need: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. To make climate change an issue A fair, enforceable UN agreement to halt the growth in emissions in the next few years and thereafter drastically and progressively reduce them to near zero by 2050. Some form of international capping system is required. More than 90% of existing fossil fuel reserves must stay in the ground. Massive investment in energy conservation and renewables is needed. Generating electricity from fossil fuels without efficient carbon capture and storage must stop. Methods to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (including (re)afforestation, biochar etc ) need to be developed and deployed on a gigantic scale. UK central government must play a full part in if Britain is to stay within its fair share of the global carbon budget. Voluntarism will not work. Local carbon budgets , carbon reduction plans