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Climate Change: The Move to Action
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2012
February 2, 2012
Class News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12
• 2008 and 2010 Class On Line:
– http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php
/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
The Current Climate (Released Monthly)
• Climate Monitoring at National Climatic
Data Center.
– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
• State of the Climate: Global
• Plant Hardiness - 2012
Some Project Ideas
• Education
– Strategies when policy requires teaching “denial”
– Incorporation into engineering curriculum
– Earth science in K-12; admission to college
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Cities (esp Great Lakes) Adaptation
Climate in the Keystone Pipeline
Great Lakes
Seasonal forecast information / Long-term
projections / Use of information / Effectiveness
of communication efforts
Today
• Scientific investigation of the Earth’s
climate: Foundational information
– Feedbacks
• Incremental
• Arctic / Ocean
– Internal / Natural Variability
The Earth System
Increase greenhouse gases reduces cooling rate  Warming
SUN
Solar
variability
Cloud feedback?
Aerosols cool?
ATMOSPHERE
Water vapor feedback
accelerates warming
Cloud feedback?
OCEAN
ICE
LAND
Changes in land use impact absorption and reflection
Ice-albedo feedback
accelerates warming
Abrupt Climate Change
• Most scenarios of abrupt climate change are
related to a phase change in some way or
another. Does the albedo change quickly? Is
there a change in the fresh water in the ocean?
Is there a release of gas stored in something
that is frozen?
• It is also possible to define rapid changes in
ocean (land?) ecosystems, that leads to
composition changes in the atmosphere.
Biology – sensitive to temperature, water,
salinity, ph, etc.
Lamont-Doherty: Abrupt Climate Change
Let’s look at just the last 1000 years
Surface temperature and CO2 data from the
past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern
hemisphere average. Temperature from
several types of measurements are consistent
in temporal behavior.
{
Note that on this scale, with more time
resolution, that the fluctuations in
temperature and the fluctuations in CO2
do not match as obviously as in the
long, 350,000 year, record.
This is a span of time with very “stable”
climate, by historical records. Stable
meaning, low variability. Also it has
been warm.
Sources of internal variability
• This is natural variability.
– Solar variability
– Volcanic activity
– Internal “dynamics”
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•
•
•
Atmosphere - Weather
Ocean
Atmosphere-ocean interactions
Atmosphere-ocean-land-ice interactions
• That does not mean that these modes of
variability remain constant as the climate
changes.
Conservation equation
• Could you write the conservation equation,
at least symbolically, for surface
temperature and atmospheric carbon
dioxide.
Energy doesn’t just come and go
• The atmosphere and ocean are fluids.
The horizontal distribution of energy, leads
to making these fluids move. That is
“weather” and ocean currents and the
“general circulation.”
• “General circulation” is the accumulated
effect of individual events.
Transport of heat poleward by atmosphere and oceans
• This is an important part of the climate
system
• One could stand back far enough in
space, average over time, and perhaps
average this away.
• This is, however, weather ... and weather
is how we feel the climate day to day
– It is likely to change because we are changing
the distribution of average heating
While Building the Radiative Balance Figure
Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc.
RS
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
1) The absorbed solar energy is
converted to terrestrial thermal
energy.
2) Then it is redistributed by the
atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, life.
CLOUD
ATMOSPHERE
SURFACE
Another important consideration.
Latitudinal dependence of heating and cooling
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
CLOUD
ATMOSPHERE
After the redistribution of energy, the
emission of infrared radiation from the
Earth is ~ equal from all latitudes.
Because of tilt of Earth, Solar
Radiation is absorbed preferentially
at the Equator (low latitudes).
SURFACE
South Pole
(Cooling)
Equator
(On average heating)
North Pole
(Cooling)
Transfer of heat north and south is an important
element of the climate at the Earth’s surface.
Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc.
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
This predisposition for parts of the globe to be warm and parts of the globe to be cold
means that measuring global warming is difficult. Some parts of the world could, in fact, get
cooler because this warm and cool pattern could be changed. What is a scenario for record
cold temperatures in northern Mexico?
CLOUD
ATMOSPHERE
heat is moved to poles
cool is moved towards equator
cool is moved towards equator
SURFACE
This is a transfer. Both ocean and atmosphere are important!
The Thermohaline Circulation (THC)
(Global, organized circulation in the ocean)
(The “conveyer belt”, “rivers” within the ocean)
Blue shading, low salt
Where there is localized
exchange of water between
the surface and the deep
ocean (convection)
Green shading, high salt
Warm, surface currents.
Cold, bottom currents.
Ocean Surface Currents
(From Steven Dutch, U Wisconsin, Green Bay)
Good Material at National Earth Science Teachers Association
Hurricanes and heat: Sea Surface Temperature
Weather Moves Heat from Tropics to the Poles
HURRICANES
Mid-latitude cyclones & Heat
Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100
2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990.
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
IPCC 2001
Wave Motion and Climate
Internal Variability?
• Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices
• There are modes of internal variability in the
climate system which cause global changes.
– El Nino – La Nina
• What is El Nino
– North Atlantic Oscillation
• Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation
– Annular Mode
– Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic
– Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction: El-Nino
Changes during El Nino
Times series of El Nino (NOAA CPC)
EL NINO
LA NINA
OCEAN TEMPERATURE
EASTERN PACIFIC
ATMOSPHERIC
PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE
Some good El Nino Information
• NOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Nino
/ La Nina
• NOAA CPC: Excellent slides on El Nino
– This is a hard to get to educational tour. This
gets you in the middle and note navigation
buttons on the bottom.
GISS Temperature 2002
1997-98 El Nino
January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
Internal Variability?
• Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices
• There are modes of internal variability in the
climate system which cause global changes.
– El Nino – La Nina
• What is El Nino
– North Atlantic Oscillation
• Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation
– Annular Mode
– Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic
– Pacific Decadal Oscillation
North Atlantic Oscillation
Positive Phase
U.S. East, Mild and Wet
Europe North, Warm and Wet
Canada North & Greenland, Cold and Dry
Negative Phase
U.S. East, Cold Air Outbreaks, Snow (dry)
Europe North, Cold; South, Wet
Greenland, Warm
North Atlantic Oscillation Phase
(from Climate Prediction Center)
January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
Internal Variability?
• Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices
• There are modes of internal variability in the
climate system which cause global changes.
– El Nino – La Nina
• What is El Nino
– North Atlantic Oscillation
• Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation
– Annular Mode
– Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic
– Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
•
Does the Pacific Decadal Oscillation operate
regularly lasting 20-30 years, and does
southern California experience droughts during
that period?
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•
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is one of several
“oscillations” that are important to weather and climate.
Some attributes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Basics
Colors: Sea Surface Temperature difference from long term average.
Arrows: Stress on the ocean surface caused by winds
Warm here
Better version of figure from JISAO
Cool here
Some information on Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Joint Institute for Study of Atmosphere and
Ocean (JISAO):
– Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Climate Prediction Center (CPC):
– 90 Day Outlook Summary
– Weather and Climate Linkage
• National Climatic Data Center (NCDC):
– Decadal Oscillations
• Review Paper from Rood Class References
– Mantua and Hare (2002) J of Oceanography
Bumps and Wiggles
• Rood’s Series on Bumps and Wiggles
Lean and Rind, Next 20 years
A Scientific Challenge
GISS Temperature 2002
1997-98 El Nino
An interesting time to study?
A couple of papers
• Bengstsson_20th_Century_Climate_JClim
ate_2004
• Johannssen_Arctic_20th_Century_Tellus_
2004
An Example at the End of Ice Age
What is a stable climate?
LIQUID - ICE
NOAA Paleoclimate
Schlumberger
Younger Dryas
POSSIBLE EVIDENCE
OF CHANGE IN OCEAN
CIRCULATION
WHAT DOES THIS
MEAN?
Does Raise the Question of Abrupt Climate
Change
Abrupt climate change
• The predictions and observations so far
are either in the sense of:
– Relatively small changes in the dynamic
balance of the climate system
– Incremental changes to the stable climate.
• What about “abrupt” climate change?
Note to professor: Force students to think and speak
• What might cause something to change
abruptly in the climate system?
• Lamont-Doherty: Abrupt Climate Change
• NAS: Abrupt Climate Change
• Wunderground.com: Abrupt Climate
Change
Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate
SUN
EARTH
PLACE AN
INSULATING
BLANKET
AROUND
EARTH
FOCUS ON
WHAT IS
HAPPENING
AT THE
SURFACE
EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE