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Transcript
Strategic Management on Development and
Transfer of Technologies for Adaptation to
Climate Change: A Case in China
Ji ZOU and Ke Wang
Renmin University of China
Tsinghua University
Contents
• Conceptual framework
• Challenges in China: general and specific
in water resources
• Responses: Package of P&M options
• Prioritized needs for technology-related
capacity building for adaptation in China
• Conclusion
Global warming
Climate system
Curbing global warming
Impacts on climate
GHG emission and
concentration
+
mitigation
+Less negative impacts
P&M package-Response to
climate change:
• Technologies: D&T
• Engineering projects
• Economic and financial
• Institutional and policies
• Behavior change
No
regret
actions
Fossil fuel use, Deforestation, etc
-
+
+
- , costs
Impacts
of response
+
-
adaptation
Combined system –Human and natural
• Natural ecosystem
• Socioeconomic system
“ – ” : negative effects;
Impacts
of CC
“ + ” : positive effects
• Water resources
• Food security
• Biodiversity
• Costal zones
• Public health, etc
Several concepts
• Cost: expense by adopting technologies and
building/operating projects/plans/schemes;
• Benefits: avoided damage derived from
climate change and response measures;
• Effectiveness: specified objectives to avoid
some undesired impacts;
• Risk: probability multiplied by expected value
of damage; and
• Damage: exposure of receivers ×unit loss
Progresses in China from perspectives of decision-making process for adaptation
Assess effectiveness, and
benefits of the candidate
options
Assess damage, risk,
and vulnerability in
both physical and
socioeconomic terms
A
A
A
A
A A
some → less → nothing
Conduct CBA/CEA
and identify options with
largest net-benefit (CBA)
or least cost (CEA)
Set up goals/targets for
adaptation and select
measures incl. technologies
Develop and implement strategies and
action plans for adaptation to CC
In decisionmaking stage
Identify candidate
options of measures
to adapt to impacts
of climate change,
including D&T&T
Assess costs of the
candidate options
In academic research stage
In academic research stage
Degree
In China:
Assess physical
impacts of climate
change on specific
sectors and
stakeholders
General Challenges in China for
Adaptation to Climate Change (1)
• Unbalanced and weaker knowledge,
understanding, awareness, and
consideration compared with mitigation;
• High population exposure to impacts of CC;
• Rising frequency and enlarging scale of
extreme climate events (floods, drought in
larger areas, increasing water shortage in
north China);
General Challenges in China for
Adaptation to Climate Change (2)
• High risk in food security for largest population in
the world with limited farmland and low
agricultural productivity;
• Long coastal line with high exposure of
population and wealth;
• The vulnerable basis of ecosystem given
uneven distribution of water resources, low
coverage of vegetation/forest, intensive use of
farmland, and increasing land use for fast
urbanization (transportation and housing); and
• Knowledge on relevant risks in public health is
still very limited.
Special Impacts of Climate Change:
Water Resources as a Case
• unbalanced geographical distribution of
water and population: they do not match
each other;
• Uneven seasonal/temporal distribution of
water (intensive rain in summer);
• Sudden flood: extreme weather event; and
• Limited storage of rainfall in areas with
water shortage.
Prioritized Areas to adapt to impacts
of CC on water resources in China
• Prevent from water-related disasters; and
• Make rational use of water resources to
support long-term sustainable
development in China.
Responses – package of P&M options
It is a matter of a systematic arrangement, not
a single technology.
We need to design and implement a package
of measures including major elements as
follows:
1.Software
2.Hardware
3.Human resources
4.Financial resources
Software
• Concepts/knowledge, information, and awareness
• Integrated assessment (models, analytical tools)
• Information (appropriate frame and indicators,
adequate collection and observation, reliable, easily
shared, and in-time for decision-making)
• Early warning: technical support (models, etc) and
institutional coordination
• Planning – optimal arrangement (based on CBA,
CEA, RBA, DM and reliable information), and
• Institutional arrangement and policy instruments in
place.
Hardware
•
•
•
•
Technologies: IPR
Equipment and devices;
Engineering projects; and
Other facilities of infrastructure
Human Resources
With adequate knowledge or expertise:
• Policy makers (officials from governments,
managers, engineers, and technicians
from industries; policy analysts, …)
• Academia: researchers and
teachers/trainers
• Project developers and market brokers;
and
• Journalists from media.
Financial Resources
Sources:
• Domestic fiscal budget/public expenditure;
• Domestic and international private investment;
• Insurance;
• international financial assistance: ODA and
additional sources via multilateral and bilateral
organizations.
Coordination:
• How to organize and integrate them?
• How to assess effectiveness and efficiency of
the use of financial resources?
Prioritized needs for capacity
building identified by NCSA (1)
• Introduce to regional and multi-sectoral
impact assessment techniques;
• Make models more powerful and applicable
to support policy making (more decision
making – oriented);
• Analytical techniques to separate impacts
derived from climate change and other
variable;
Prioritized needs for capacity
building identified by NCSA (2)
• Improve monitoring and observation
system, especially focusing on automatic
and continuous observation and
information-sharing;
• Enhance capacity in early warning of
extreme weather events by better
predicting modeling, information, and
institutional coordination;
• Identify further technological and policy
options for adaptation.
Prioritized needs for capacity
building identified by NCSA (3)
• R&D in adaptive agriculture and forest
technologies;
• Techniques for impact assessment on public
health;
• Techniques for socioeconomic impact
assessment;
Prioritized needs for capacity
building identified by NCSA (4)
• Transfer of knowledge in insurance;
• Information management; and
• Transfer of technologies in telemetry,
remote sensing, automatic monitoring
instruments, atmospheric background
assessment, and atmospheric
chemical composition.
Conclusions
• High demands for P&Ms to adapt to climate
change in China: very vulnerable;
• Capacity is still weak: knowledge, information,
awareness, institution and policies, and
technologies and facilities;
• Initial focuses may be on prevention from
extreme climate events by enhancing early
warning capacity (models, information, etc); and
• Integrated package should be applied in a
coordinative manner.