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Introduction to discussion on Climate Change Richard Wilson Harvard University Nino constantly insists that proof of anthropogenic climate change is weak. It is not a repeatable experiment unlike astronomy it does not repeat itself. Can we improve the evidence for or against? Does it matter whether it is man made or naturally occurring? I suggest that we should carry out any experiments Seriously suggested to clarify the situation Should we do something? I will go over my questions. Energy costs are about 1/3 of our budgets. Burning carbon by or for us maybe 1/4 The conventional view Before 1800 Earth absorbs radiation from the sun Re-emits as black body Temperature calculated to be about T 200 degrees K 1824 Jacques Fourier proposes that the earth is a greenhouse T = 200 x 2^(0.25) Circa 1870 Tyndall and others: H20 and CO2 greenhouses gases 1897 Arrhenius calculates relation between CO2 and temperature About 1930 mixing between surface ocean and deep oceans is weak If t ~ 700 yrs then a problem, if 70 years mixing will prevent excessive rise 1946 Dobson’s lectures in Oxford makes predictions 1968 + Keeling’s measurements of CO2 in Mauna Loa 1968 Glenn Seaborg tells Congress: Nuclear power will NOT cause CO2 increase 1970+ Scientists continually raise the issue: politicians do nothing 1986 Hansen (NASA) thinks we should do something. Temperature rise estimates for doubling CO2 average 3 degrees - might be 10 degrees. Is that a probability ? What does that mean? 1990 computer calculations agree. But is this because they all make the same mistake? 1992 Will Happer (Assistant Secretary for Science) fired from DOE for questioning the evidence Does CO2 rise cause T rise or somehow T rise prevent CO2 absorption by oceans? Can we find out? Happer suggests increasing CO2 is good 1994 + International Program on Climate Change IPC 3 Chairman exaggerates 2004 IPCC4 Claims that T rise is definite. Is it? Probably 90% say yes but 10% say no. Does careless presentation by East Anglia scientists alter the picture? If T rise is uncertain The effect in the environment is more uncertain. What is the effect of a different discount rate? what do we recommend? Carry out any scientific study that clarifies the situation Rethinking data on T rise (T Quirk at this meeting) Do anything cheap to reduce C burning? Study the effects Sit on our Hands? (Michaels) Enough of my questions What do you say?