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ASSOCIATION FOR CANADIAN EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES (ACER) Applied Climate Change Conference May 23-24, 2013 Community Sustainability under a Changing Climate Don C. MacIver [email protected] Marianne Karsh [email protected] Climate Change is a global-local issue Sustainable Communities Safety/Health Adaptation to: • Changing climate • Changing hazards • Changing behaviour Biodiversity Adaptation to: • Changing landscapes • Changing species/seeds • Changing ecosystems Competitiveness Adaptation to: • Changing markets • Changing regulations • Changing technologies UN/ISDR Resilient Cities Campaign Resilient Communities National Platform POINT 1: The Atmosphere is unforgiving POINT 2: The Climate is already Changing How has the Climate Been Changing in the Area? Toronto Annual Temperature (1878-2002) 16 Temperature ( o C) Maximum 12 Mean 8 Minimum 4 0 1878 1898 1918 1938 1958 1978 1998 Year Since late 1800s Annual Temps: Warmed Toronto Annual Precipitation (1895-2002) Precipitation (mm) 1400 Mean Temps ~ 2.7 C Min Temps most ~4.1C 1200 1000 800 600 1895 1915 1935 1955 Year 1975 1995 Annual Precip: Slight Increase? Toronto Pearson Airport 2020’s 8.8 Adapting to the Changing Climate 8.6 1981-2010 Normal Temp = 8.4 8.4 8.2 8 7.8 1971-2000 Normal Temp = 7.5 7.6 7.4 1961-1990 Normal Temp = 7.2 7.2 7 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 Climate Change Ensemble Not Sign. Difference from 2001-2010 Decade Celebrity Storms: Visible impacts with extremes… forest fires floods Waves and storms droughts, heat spells Saguenay flooding (1996), 26 millions m3 of water and 9 millions tons of debris The Great Ice Storm (1998),1,5 millions customers without electricity for up to 30 days Threats to Biodiversity in Canada • Land-Use Change • Climate Change • Insects/Disease/Fire Page 8 POINT 3: Landscapes are also changing • Loss of Biodiversity POINT 4: The Climate will be Changing Global Climate Model Projections for Region – 2050s Annual Mean Temps Warming 2.6 – 4.0 C Annual Mean Precip Increasing 6-15% Scenario data from AR4 CGCM3 and HadCM3 Changes relative to 1961-1990 Baseline Climate Biodiversity Monitoring Themes There are four general themes under which most forest biodiversity monitoring activities fall: Monitoring based on species at risk Monitoring based on population trends Monitoring based on status and trends in habitat Monitoring based on threats to biodiversity Page 12 Comparison of Proportion of Live and Dead Eastern Flowering Dogwoods in Backus Woods 1995-2003 Dead Alive 100 80 Number of 60 Trees 40 20 0 1995 2000 Year 2003 Climate and Forest Biodiversity Using Smithsonian Global Biodiversity Observation Network “Canada can ill-afford the loss of one species” Planned Adaptation: Increasing Habitat Biodiversity Under Climate Change by 2020 Pre-settlement Baseline Biodiversity Data (1792) Marianne Karsh and Don MacIver Figure 1. Pre-settlement Biodiversity Data southern Ontario in 1972. Climate Change Scenarios Figure 3. Modeled warming in southern Ontario using an ensemble of climate change models. • Habitat biodiversity levels in the pre-settlement period were significantly higher than today. • Using one climate change model, by itself, produced inflated results, compared to the ensemble of the top 7 out of 24 verified models. •Climate Change Scenarios for GCM’s and RCM’s are available from www.cccsn.ca and the climatebiodiversity examples at www.canadabiodiversity.ca. National Biodiversity Observing Sites (NBOS) Conclusion Figure 4. Historical rate of loss of native biodiversity and responses of biodiversity under climate change along with land-use regulation, insect/disease controls and planned adaptation. Figure 2. National Biodiversity Observing Sites (NBOS) and the Heat Unit by Family Biodiversity Model. • The Sustainable Biodiversity Baseline is defined as the level established at the time of the pre-settlement land surveys. • The Smithsonian Institution network now numbers more than 500 sites worldwide with more than 100 sites across Canada, including more than 25 in southern Ontario. • Significant losses in native biodiversity result from little or no land-use regulatory controls and expansion of high-value agricultural crops as illustrated by the Essex curves, in which the wetlands have disappeared and only 5% of the original habitat remains today. • In Canada, heat is the primary driver of climate-triggered changes in habitat biodiversity. • The heat unit by family biodiversity model is based on observational data and has helped understand (>85% explanation) and predict the effects of a changing climate. • Provided that land-use regulation, agricultural expansion and insects/diseases are controlled, the incremental warming of the climate system will create a more favourable environment for a recovery (planned adaptation) to pre-settlement levels in habitat biodiversity (native and new species) over the next hundred years. • Re-establishment of the sustainable biodiversity baseline under climate change by 2020 is illustrated by the Long Point curves, based on appropriate land-use regulation and the proactive planting of native and new species (i.e. planned adaptation). References •Butt, S. and A. Fenech. 2000. Pre-European Settlement Landcover Mapping of Southern Ontario. Unpublished report, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario. 35 pp. •Dallmeier, F., A. Fenech, D.C MacIver and R. Szaro (eds.). 2010. Climate Change, Biodiversity and Sustainability in the Americas. Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, Washington, D.C. 183 pp. •Fenech, A., D.C. MacIver and F. Dallmeier (eds.). 2009. Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Americas. Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario. 346 pp. •MacIver, D.C., M.B. Karsh and N. Comer. 2009. Climate change and Biodiversity: Implications for Monitoring, Science and Adaptive Planning. Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division (AIRD), Toronto, Ontario. 184 pp. Toronto Biodiversity Potential Page 17 Climate Change Experimental Biodiversity Site • Association for Canadian Educational Resources (ACER) and Arborvitae is monitoring impacts of warmer temperatures on biodiversity at the Humber Arboretum in NW Toronto • Documenting response on 1 hectare biodiversity plot of native, new forest and herbaceous species • Info will be used to develop new planting protocols, adaptive management practices under climate change Biological Threats to Biodiversity M.B. Karsh, A. Casselman, D.C. MacIver, S. Fung, and H. Auld Page 19 United Nations Publications Climate Change and Biodiversity Publications Dallmeier, F., A. Fenech, D.C MacIver and R. Szaro (eds.). 2010. Climate Change, Biodiversity & Sustainability in the Americas. Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, Washington, D.C. 183 pp. Fenech, A., D.C. MacIver and F. Dallmeier (eds.). 2009. Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Americas. Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, On. 346 pp. •MacIver, D.C., M.B. Karsh and N. Comer. 2009. Climate change and Biodiversity: Implications for Monitoring, Science and Adaptive Planning. Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Toronto, On. 184 pp. •MacIver D, 2013 (Accepted For Publication), Climate Sense For Municipalities, Municipal World Publication •MacIver D, Karsh M, 2010, Planned Adaptation - How Municipalities Can Save Energy And Increase Habitat Biodiversity Under Climate Change By 2020 And Beyond, Municipal World Publication •MacIver D, Fernandez S, 2010, Canadian Drought Alert And Monitoring Program - The Do-It-Yourself Drought Alert And Water Conservation Tool, Municipal World Publication •MacIver D, Butt S, Auld H, Klaassen J, 2009, Severe Weather is the #1 Risk To Ontario Municipalities, Municipal World Publication Page 21 Thank you!