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Australia’s likely future climate and impacts
Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship
Penny Whetton
IPAA March 2010
Global average temperatures are rising
CRU, UEA
CSIRO Climate change: the latest science
Causes of observed warming
IPCC 2001
CSIRO Climate change: the latest science
Global impact of future emissions
Garnaut Report (2008)
CSIRO Climate change: the latest science
Future temperature changes
Global warming by
2100:
450 ppm:
0.8 – 2.1 °C
550 ppm:
1.1 – 2.7 °C
No mitigation:
2.4 – 6.4 °C
CSIRO Climate change: the latest science
Future temperature changes
Global warming by
2100:
450 ppm:
0.8 – 2.1 °C
550 ppm:
1.1 – 2.7 °C
No mitigation:
2.4 – 6.4 °C
CSIRO Climate change: the latest science
Future rainfall changes
IPCC 2007
Precipitation increase in ≥90% of simulations
Precipitation decrease in ≥75% of simulations
Precipitation increase in ≥75% of simulations
Precipitation decrease in ≥90% of simulations
More rainfall, except drier in mid-latitudes (including southern Australia)
CSIRO Climate change: the latest science
Sea-level rise will continue
CSIRO Climate change: the latest science
Australia’s climate has changed
Temperature: greatest
warming in eastern and central
Australia, with more extremely
hot days and fewer frosts
Rainfall: wetter in the
northwest and drier in the
southwest and east
CSIRO Climate change: the latest science
Future changes in average temperature
2030: 0.6 to 1.5°C warmer for
a medium emissions
scenario
2070: 1.0 to 2.5°C warmer
for a low emissions scenario
°C
Median warming in 2030, relative to
1990, for a medium emissions scenario
CSIRO Climate change: the latest science
2070: 2.2 to 5°C warmer
for a high emissions
scenario
Small changes in average
temperature have a big effect
on extreme daily
temperatures
Future changes in average rainfall
Annual rainfall in 2030
• Southern Aus: 0 to -10%
• Northern Aus: +5 to -10%
Largest rainfall decreases
in winter and spring
Increased drought extent
and frequency in the south
Median % rainfall change in 2030, relative to
1990, for a medium emissions scenario
(stippling shows where at least 67% of
models agree on the direction of change)
CSIRO Climate change: the latest science
Heavier rain-storms in
summer and autumn, little
change in winter and spring
Future cyclones and storm surges
Stronger tropical cyclones,
with uncertainty about
changes in frequency
Larger oceanic storm
surges, superimposed
on sea-level rise
CSIRO Climate change: the latest science
Potential impacts
Water security problems are likely to
intensify in southern and eastern Australia
Around 9% less water in the northern
Murray Darling Basin (MDB) by 2030, and
13% less in the southern MDB
Greater risks for coastal flooding
from sea-level rise and storm surges
Area inundated by a 1-in-100 year storm
surge in Cairns is likely to double by 2050
Significant loss of biodiversity
in sensitive areas
By 2020, bleaching and damage to
Great Barrier Reef equivalent to that
in 1998 and 2002 in up to 50% of years
CSIRO Climate change: the latest science
Potential impacts
Greater risks to major infrastructure due
to increases in extreme weather events,
including bush fire
More damage to buildings, transport
services, energy services,
telecommunications and water services
More heat-related deaths
for people aged over 65
1115 deaths per year at present in
the 5 largest capital cities, increasing
to 2300-2500 per year by 2020
Reduced production in agriculture
and forestry in south and east
National wheat yield: +10% to -50% by 2070
Reduced grape quality by 2030
CSIRO Climate change: the latest science
Seeking solutions to the climate change challenge
Adaptation
• Preparing for the impacts of climate change;
• Aim is to reduce the negative consequences,
take advantage of any possible opportunities.
Mitigation
• Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to
address the cause of climate change;
CSIRO Climate change: the latest science
Responding to climate change
Higher impacts
and adaptation
later
Low mitigation
now
CSIRO Climate change: the latest science
Responding to climate change
High mitigation
now
Low mitigation
now
CSIRO Climate change: the latest science
Higher impacts
and adaptation
later
Lower impacts
and adaptation
later
Penny Whetton
Phone: +61 3 9239 4535
Email: [email protected]
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric
Research
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Presenter’s title
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric
Research
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Phone: +61 3 9545 2176
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.cmar.csiro.au
Phone: +61 3 9545 2176
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.cmar.csiro.au/group
Thank you
Contact
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CSIRO Climate change: the latest science