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Climate threat:
what has changed,
what could change
Gustavo V. Necco
UNICAMP
5 October 2004, Campinas, Brazil
Carbon dioxide levels rise - Mercury climbs
Oceans warm – Glaciers melt – Sea level rises
Sea ice thins – Permafrost thaws – Wildfires increase
Lakes shrink – Lakes freeze up later – Drought linger
Ice shelves collapse – Precipitation increases
Mountain streams run dry – Winter loses its bite
Spring arrives earlier - Autumn comes later
Plants flower sooner – Migration times vary
Birds nets earlier – Diseases spread
Coral reefs bleach – Habitats change
Snow packs decline – Amphibians disappear
Coastlines erode - Cloud forest dry
Temperature spike at high latitudes
GLOBAL CHANGE? GLOBAL “WARNING”?
National Geographic, September 2004
Global Change
“Changes in the global
environment (including
alterations in the
climate, land
productivity, oceans or
other water resources,
atmospheric chemistry,
and ecological
systems) that may alter
the capacity of the
earth to sustain life.”
Primary Contributors to the Natural Greenhouse Effect
Carbon
Dioxide
Other
~25%
~10%
~65%
Increase in last century
Carbon dioxide: 30 percent +
Methane: 100 percent
Nitrous oxide: 15 percent
Halocarbons: ?
Water
Vapour
The earth has a natural greenhouse effect due to trace amounts of H20 and CO2 that
naturally occur. The enhanced greenhouse effect refers to the augmentation of these
natural gases by human activities
The net result is that we are depositing approximately 2 billion extra tons of carbon in an out
of equilibrium cycle. Eventually this will be taken up by the land but the timescale for that
process is unknown. Hence, the extra carbon, in the form of C02 remains in the atmosphere.
*
*
G-8
*
*
*
*
*
Vostok (Antarctica): 4 glacial cycles
(Petit et al., 1999)
Milankovitch (astronomic) factors
Combined annual land-surface air and sea surface temperature anomalies (°C)
1861 to 2003, relative to 1961 to 1990. Two standard error uncertainties are shown
as bars on the annual number.
Hadley Center
Global annual surface temperature anomalies
Global annual surface temperature anomalies by hemisphere: a) NH, b) SH. Both were calculated
with respect to the 1961-1990 period.
BAMS, Vol. 85, N° 6, June 2004
Global mean annual temperature over the past 2 millenia
Reconstructions of NH global mean annual temperatures over the past two millennia.
Expansion compares a number of different estimates over the past 1000 years. Smoothed (40year low passed) versions are shown to highlight low-frequency variations.
Jones & Mann, Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 42, N° 2, June 2004
Global map of temperature anomalies for the 2002 meteorological year
(Dec. 2001-Nov. 2002) relative to the 1951-1980 baseline
NASA/GISS
Regional trends of surface temperature minus lower tropospheric temperatures
(°C/decade). Surface temperatures are from IPCC (2001) and lower tropospheric
temperatures from Christy et al. (2000).
UNDERSTANDING RECENT ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND REDUCING UNCERTAINTIES
In support of Chapter 3 of the Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program
Draft dated 26 November 2002
Annual global temperature departures
(1999 value based on 8 month mean)
World Climate Report
Changes in intense NH winter storms and temperatures
correlate well
Africa
Changes in the
number of warm
days.
Dark circles
represent
warming and
white circles
cooling.
Trends (% time/decade)
From Easterling
et al., 2003
Precipitation has increased in some parts of the world and
decreased in others
Trends (%/century) in annual precipitation for 1900-2000
Insert figure
Permafrost (perennially frozen ground)
Permafrost temperatures at depths of 11.5 m and 19.5 m, Murtel Corvatsch
(Swiss Alps) 1987-2002 (Harris & Haeberli, 2003)
This image
illustrates the
rapid thinning of
the Greenland
Ice Sheet as
measured by
NASA's Airborne
Topographic
Mapper.
NASA´s scientific
visualization
studio
Sea-ice extent
Monthly anomalies
(millions of km2) of
Arctic and Antarctic
sea-ice extent for the
period 1973-2001,
derived from satellite
passive microwave
sounder data
(Source: HadlSST1
data set, Hadley
Centre, UK Met Office)
Trend : - 2.8 % per
decade
Antarctic sea ice decline since the 50s
(M.A.J. Curran et all., Science, Vol.302, 14 Nov. 2003)
MSA:
Methanesulphonic acid
SIE:
Sea ice extent for the
80E to 180E sector
(satellite derived)
Trend:
20% decline in SIE
since about 1950
Sea Ice Extent NH 20th Century
Time series of annual and seasonal sea ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere, 1901-2003 (Annual
values from Vinnikov et al. 1999, seasonal values courtesy of B. Chapman, update from Chapman
and Walsh, 1993)
BAMS, Vol. 85, N° 6, June 2004
a
1979-90
d
d=(b-a)
b
1991-2002
c
2003
Ice concentrations at their minimum summertime
levels. Panels a and b display the average minima
recorded during 1979-90 and 1991-2002,
respectively. Panel c in 2003.
Panel d = difference (b-a)
Average size of ice pack in 1979-90 > 1991-2002
by 12%. The Beaufort Sea has suffered the most
substantial reduction of ice.
J. F. Comiso & C.L. Parkinson
Physics Today, August 2004
Arctic ice, ocean and
atmosphere are closely
interconnected: a change to one
influences the others.
a): One possible feedback loop
b): Some of the key fluxes that
affect the Arctic system.
The arrows overlay a satellitederived map of the perennial ice
cover when the cover was least
extensive in 2002
J. F. Comiso & C.L. Parkinson
Physics Today, August 2004
Melting glaciers
Alberta/BC Provincial Boundary Commission
B.H. Luckman
Athabasca glacier
in 1917 and 1986.
Climate change
could result in
significant retreat
of large glaciers
such as this, and
related reduction in
downstream water
flows, wildlife
habitat, and
hydroelectricity
production
Kilimanjaro 1970
Photos: L. Thompson
Kilimanjaro 2000
Kilimanjaro 2020?
Area (km2)
Ice on Kilimanjaro
15
10
5
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Year
L.Thompson et al. 2002
Global Mean Sea-level Change
Global averaged sea-level
change between January
1950 and December 2000
from reconstructions, and the
global mean sea-level from
the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite
altimeter (top panel).
Estimated regional distribution
of sea-level rise between
January 1950 and December
2000 (bottom panel).
The solid line is 2 mm yr-1,
and the contour interval is 0.5
mm yr-1
J. A. Church et al.
BAMS, Vol. 85, N° 7, July 2004
Bering Sea
+
-
Monthly temperatures
anomalies (left) at St. Paul
Island as a function of month
and year. The base period is
1961-1990.
Note the shift towards
warmer temperatures both
after 1976 and for the
previous 4 years,
Concentration (% cover) of
sea ice over the southeastern
Bering Sea between latitudes
57°N and 58°N (right).
Location chart al lower right
J. E. Overland & P.J. Stabeno
EOS, Vol. 85, N° 33, 17 August 2004
-
-
-
-
Bering Sea
The evolution of depth-averaged sea temperatures from an oceanographic mooring at site
M2 (56.8°N, 164°W) for spring and summer in different years (Stabeno et al., 2002)
J. E. Overland & P.J. Stabeno,
EOS, Vol. 85, N° 33, 17 August 2004
Bering Sea
Spawning biomass
(diamonds) and recruitment
(yearly addition in millions of
fish to the stock) for
representative Bering fish:
Greenland turbot and flathead
sole.
Data from the National Marine
Fisheries Services (North
Pacific Fishery Management
Council, 2003)
J. E. Overland & P.J. Stabeno
EOS, Vol. 85, N° 33, 17 August 2004
100%
2. Biodiversity changes has resulted in species
replacements
80%
60%
C. finmarchicus
40%
20%
0%
C. helgolandicus
1962
1972
1982
1992
3. Replacement of similar species but with
different
seasonal
abundances
has
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
20
dramatic consequences for the dynamics
of the food web
months
1. Changes in the circulation
in the N. Atlantic over the last
50 years has affected
biodiversity
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Calanus helgolandicus
Calanus finmarchicus
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Key species in the North
Atlantic
Calanus finmarchicus
•
Up to 80-90% of copepod biomass,
and a major herbivore throughout
the sub-arctic North Atlantic.
•
Important prey species in both
shelf and ocean ecosystems –
especially for cod!
•
Cod populations (juveniles)
dependent upon it as a primary
food source
Calanus finmarchicus
Scaled abundance
Long term changes in North Sea abundance
Invasion area data
CPR box 12
2
0
-2
Whole North Sea data
-4
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
Heath et al. 1999. Climate fluctuations and the spring invasion of the North Sea by
Calanus finmarchicus. Fisheries Oceanography. 8(1):163-176
Fisheries:
Vilcinskas 2000
GEC deals with the Earth system “in toto”:
Ecosphere + the human factor
Ecosphere
Human factor
atmosphere
cryosphere
hydrosphere
lithosphere
biosphere
anthroposphere
human decisions and actions
The Earth System: Coupling the Physical, Biogeochemical
and Human Components
/ DIVERSITAS
Atmosphere
Models
The Earth System
Unifying the Models
Climate / Weather
Models
The Predictive
Earth System
Hydrolog
y
Process
Models
Ocean
Models
Land
Surface
Models
Natural Hazard
Prediction
Terrestrial
Biosphere
Models
Megaflops
Gigaflops
Teraflops
2000
Petaflops
2010
Coupling AGCMs to OGCMs is a complex process
IPCC, TAR, 2001
Comparison between modeled and observations of temperature rise since 1850
6
Survival
4
IPCC Projections
2100 AD
3
2
N.H. Temperature
(°C)
Adaptation Sustainability
1
1
0.5
0
0
-0.5
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Global Temperature (°C)
5
Abrupt change
• In nonlinear complex
systems, minute
actions can cause long
term, large scale
changes. These
changes can be abrupt,
devastating, surprising,
unmanageable.
Abrupt change
. Large and rapid – ocurring faster than say a few decades.
The term abrupt implies not just rapidity but also reaching a breaking point: a threshold – it implies
a change that does not smoothly follows the forcing, but it is rapid in comparison to it.
Abrupt climate change = strong non-linear response to the forcing
Threshold
Time
Time
The change from winter to summer, a very large change occurring within six months (in
many places larger than the glacial-interglacial transition), it is not an abrupt change in
climate (or weather), it is rather a gradual transition following the solar forcing in its
near-sinusoidal path.
Denser waters in high latitude oceans create a thermohaline circulation
(THC) system that has a major impact on regional climates
Steady-state solutions of the two-box model as a function of the atmosphere-ocean freshwater flux. Paths
along the solution curves of two versions of Stommel’s box model showing the rate of the ocean
overturning when the freshwater forcing flux H is increased and then decreased. Only in the case of weak
diffusion (orange) does the model respond with an abrupt change, once a threshold in H is crossed.
Change in the strength of the North Atlantic meridional
overturning circulation (svds) in a number of simulations with
increases in greenhouse gases
Source: Cubasch et al. 2001
d18O (per mil)
Dansgaard-Oeschger (warm) events and Heinrich (cold) events
Age (kyr before present)
(Above) Record d18O from the GRIP (Greenland Ice Sheet Project) ice core, a proxy for
atmospheric temperature over Greenland. Note the stable Holocene climate during the past 10000
years and before that the much colder glacial climate punctuated by D-O warm events (numbered).
The time of Heinrich events is marked with black dots.
Garnopolski & Rahmstorf, 2001
(Right) Sea surface temperature
derived marine sediments in the
Subtropical Atlantic (Bermuda
Rise) compared to d18O values
from the GISP2 core in Greenland
The day after …
THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW
“You will be swept away by sights you’ll never be able to see on the Weather
Channel”
- Chris Vognar, Daily Morning News
“A big-weather disaster movie designed to put the fear on God into audiences with Olympic
stamina and peanut-sized brains”
-James Christopher, Times of London
“You can finally say this about the notion that everybody talks about the weather, but
nobody does anything about it: … Roland Emmerich has done something about it.
Something stupid, but still … something”
- Stephen Hunter, Washington Post
“This is a doomsday scenario: it feeds paranoid schizophrenia”
- Andrew Weber, University of Victoria, Scholl of Earth and Ocean Sciences
“My first reaction was “Oh my God, this is a disaster because it is such a distortion of the
science””
- Dan Schrag, Harvard University, Paleoclimatologist
“Global warming is no joke, but this is pretty silly stuff”
-Jay Boyar, Orlando Sentinel
Quoted at BAMS, Vol. 87, N° 7, July 2004
Some comments on
THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW
• The Larsen B ice shelf breaks up
(this did happen in the real world)
• UN Climate conference in Delhi + politics of climate change (reaction of Vice-president in
the film) (OK)
• The world of climate science – labs, groups, scientists (OK)
• Melt water inflow halting the North Atlantic current and causing severe cooling in a matter
of days (????)
• A few super giant (tropical type) cyclones covering the entire NH causing flooding, hail,
tornados, etc. (????)
• Flooding of Manhattan produced by a wind-driven “tsunami” (????)
• Cold air from the eyes of the super-cyclones sucked-down from the upper troposphere to
the surface and shock-freezes the sky-scrapers (????)
• The “hero” is a climatologist (OK – it stirs the interest of the public for the subject)
Inpired by Stefan Rahmstorf, 2004
Critical regions
Schellnhuber,2002
Critical region analysis of hot spots or switch and choke points: an early attempt at identifying parts
of the Earth where changes at regional scales can cause significant changes in the functioning of the
Earth system as a whole. Perturbations to the system may trigger abrupt changes, either repeating
conditions that have existed in the past, or even causing shifts to new modes of operation.
“Greenhouse skeptics” or “climate contrarians”
Many newspapers have commented on cold spells in recent years, implying they weaken the case
for global warming. Global warming refers to a long-term trend. Short-term events are interesting
but have no bearing on the problem.
A small group of vocal scientists (known collectively as “climate contrarians” or “greenhouse
skeptics”) keep emphasizing the well-known uncertainties in all climate assessment. The climate
change debate buzzes along, with the "not proven" minority asserting that we are in the grip of a
mass panic, led by the world's climate scientists. Tasmanian John Daly, for instance, argues the
debate is caused by sheer professional aggrandisement, "advancing the interests of what was a
small academic discipline 30 years ago to become a mammoth global industry today".
• Dr. Frederick Seitz, President Emeritus of Rockefeller University. A physicist a recipient of the
National Medal of Science and a past President of both the National Academy of Sciences and the
American Physical Society. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published his article "A Major Deception
on Global Warming." on June 12, 1996, just days after formal release of the IPCC SAR and scant
weeks before the COP-2 meeting in Geneva,
• Dr. S. Fred Singer, physicist and former director of the U.S. Weather Satellite Service, issued the
following warning,
The United States and other industrialized nations are on the brink of adopting policies that will ruin
national economies, and drive manufacturing and other industries into less developed and less
regulated countries ... all to mitigate "disasters" that exist only on computer printouts and in the
feverish imagination of professional environmental zealots.
“Greenhouse skeptics” or “climate contrarians”
• Professor Richard Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology, working in the
department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Professor Lindzen believes that the climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change do not properly account for the physics of cloud formation, and that as a result
they exaggerate the warming effect of CO2. (Failing to take into account the “iris effect”).
• Dr. Bjorn Lomborg (“the scourge of the greens”), currently the director of Denmark's
Environmental Assessment Institute, is the author of "The Skeptical Environmentalist", 2001, a
global bestseller that claimed a systematic exaggeration of the Earth's environmental problems.
Environmentalists brought a complaint about the book before a body called the Danish
Committees on Scientific Dishonesty (DCSD), which declared that Dr Lomborg's book was
"contrary to the standards of good scientific practice," By end 2003 the Danish Ministry of Science
repudiated the findings. Critics to the book by American scientists were published by Scientific
American in January 2002 sparking a passionate controversy. Dr Lomborg claims that proposed
economic measures to counteract climate change are too expensive.
Prominent skeptics organizations
• Global Climate Coalition <http://www.globalclimate.org>
Founded in 1989 by 46 corporations and trade associations representing all major elements of US
industry, the GCC presents itself as a "voice for business in the global warming debate.“ It has
been deactivated but the webpage is still on.
Arguments: Global Warming is real, but it is too expensive to do anything about. The Kyoto
Protocol is fundamentally flawed.
Funding: Corporate members (industries, trade associations etc.). British Petroleum, Daimler
Chrysler, Texaco and General Motors left the coalition.
• George Marshall Institute <http://www.marshall.org>
This conservative think tank has published numerous reports downplaying the severity of global
climate change. It was very influential in the Bush Sr. Administration’s climate change policy..
Arguments: Blame the Sun. The Kyoto Protocol is fatally flawed.
Affiliated Individuals: Robert Jastrow, ex-Director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies ;
and Frederick Seitz.
• Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine
The Marshall Institute co-sponsored with the OISM a deceptive campaign -- known as the Petition
Project -- to undermine and discredit the scientific authority of the IPCC and to oppose the Kyoto
Protocol in 1998. The Petition resurfaced in 2001.
Arguments: There is no scientific basis for claims about global warming. IPCC is a hoax. Kyoto is
flawed.
Funding: Petition was funded by private sources.
Affiliated Individuals: Arthur B. Robinson, Sallie L. Baliunas, Frederick Seitz
Prominent skeptics organizations (cont.)
• Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) <http://www.sepp.org>
Founded in 1990 by widely publicized climate skeptic S. Fred Singer, SEPP’s stated purpose is to
"document the relationship between scientific data and the development of federal environmental
policy."
Arguments: Climate change won t be bad for us anyway. Action on climate change is not
warranted because of shaky science and flawed policy approaches.
Funding: Conservative foundations including Bradley, Smith Richardson, and Forbes (Sung Myung
Moon s Unification Church ?),.
Affiliated Individuals: S. Fred Singer,Frederick Seitz, Bruce Ames.
• Greening Earth Society <http://greeningearthsociety.org>
The Greening Earth Society (GES) was founded on Earth Day 1998 by the Western Fuels
Association to promote the view that increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 are good for humanity..
The Western Fuels Association (WFA) is a cooperative of coal-dependent utilities in the western
states that works in part to discredit climate change science and to prevent regulations that might
damage coal-related industries. On March 9, 2004, GES distributed a Newsletter claiming “Snow
fooling!:Mount Kilimanjaro’s glacier retreat is not related to global warming” citing a paper in the
International Journal of Climatology (the paper asserted that Kilimanjaro’s ice was shrinking
because East Africa’s climate is drying, a process that began more than a century ago)..
Arguments: CO2 emissions are good for the planet; coal is the best energy source we have.
Funding: The Greening Earth Society receives its funding from the Western Fuels Association,
which in turn receives its funding from its coal and utility company members.
Affiliated Individuals: Patrick Michaels, Robert Balling, David Wojick, Sallie Baliunas, Sylvan
Wittwer, John Daley, Sherwood Idso
Prominent skeptics organizations (cont.)
• Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide & Global Change <http://www.CO2science.org>
The Center claims to "disseminate factual reports and sound commentary on new developments in
the world-wide scientific quest to determine the climatic and biological consequences of the
ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content." The Center is led by two brothers, Craig and Keith Idso.
Their father, Sherwood Idso, is affiliated with the Greening Earth Society.
Arguments: Increased levels of CO2 will help plants, and that's good.
Funding: The Center is extremely secretive of its funding sources.
Affiliated Individuals: Craig Idso, Keith Idso, Sylvan Wittwer
• Competitive Enterprise Institute CEI <http://www.cei.org>
The Competitive Enterprise Institute claims to be a non-profit public policy organization dedicated
to the principles of free enterprise and limited government. Since its founding in 1984, CEI has
grown into a $3,000,000 institution with a team of nearly 40 policy experts and other staff. Coined
the term "free-market environmentalism“. In 1995 the Wall Street Journal labeled CEI "the best
environmental think tank."
Arguments: Market institutions more effectively allow for the realization of environmental values
than political agencies and bureaucracies. The Kyoto treaty would devastate the economies of the
industrialized world. Climate change is based on uncertain science and bad economics.
Ideologically driven: strongly attacks “green-reds” (“eco-socialists”) and “environmental alarmists”.
Funding: CEI does not publish a list of its institutional donors. Known contributors : ExxonMobil,
Coca Cola, Texaco, FMC Foundation, General Motors, Pfizer Inc..
Affiliated Individuals: William Dunn (Chair Board of Directors), Fred L. Smith, Jr. (President and
Founder), Myron Ebell (Director of Global Warming and International Environmental Policy, he also
chairs the Cooler Heads Coalition ).
Those who stand away from the climate consensus often cite the following points:
• Computer modeling is unreliable.
For example, the models do not resolve small-scale processes, such as local atmospheric
convection. In addition, it is difficult to integrate processes that operate on different time-scales
– as when the models try to couple the atmosphere to the ocean.
Better models
• Atmospheric physics is not well understood
Largely due to our gaps in understanding of how the climate system deals with cloud feedback.
More research
• Climate reconstruction is unreliable
Since it is done, in part, by incorporating statistical behavior of questionable reliability.
More (climatic & paleo climatic) data
+ appropriate statistical tools
Ultimately, however, these competing levels of concern – which have their basis in geography,
politics and economics – should not be allowed to get in the way of the strictly scientific question:
Is the Earth warming and are anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to blame? And, if so,
what consequences are to be expected for further warming?
What’ s the problem here?
Extreme, maximalist, attitudes and approaches
“Panglossian” vs. “Catastrophic” scenarios
“Good-for-you” vs. “End-of-the-world”
The two lowest probability cases in climate change
(Stephen H. Schneider)
References
• Science & impact of climate change presentation graphics
Meteorological Service of Canada
www.msc.ec.gc.ca/education/scienceofclimatechange/understanding
• Climate change: what we know and what we need to know
Royal Meteorological Society, August 2002
www.royalsoc.ac.uk
• ”The discovery of global warming”
Spencer Weart, July 2004
www.aip.org/climate
• “Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable surprises”
National Research Council, 2002
http://books.nap.edu/books/0309074347/html/index.html
www.iai.int