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Moving from Climate Information to Climate Knowledge Climate Change Knowledge Asset Session Pacific Neighborhood Consortium Annual meeting Asia City University of Hong Kong, December 1 2010 PEconomic acific Cooperation Climate Center Jin Ho Yoo and Mara Y. Baviera APEC Climate Center APEC Climate Center Presentation Outline ■ The Climate System, Climate Information and Climate Knowledge ■ Gaps and Challenges to Climate Knowledge Production ■ APEC Climate Center and its response APEC Climate Center Numerous information on Climate Change APEC Climate Center People say, APEC Climate Center Do what? : Decision making before action APEC Climate Center Basis of decision making APEC Climate Center Climate change information and its application Knowledge Data Information APEC Climate Center Climate Knowledge • Interpretation of information • Requires understanding and insight • Developed based on experiences and best practices • Produced with the intent of being useful APEC Climate Center A few examples INFORMATION KNOWLEDGE Outlooks Forecasts Monitoring and prediction maps Flood and drought bulletins Technical reports Wikis Decision-support tools Best practices Early Warning and risk management system APEC Climate Center Presentation Outline ■ The Climate System, Climate Information and Climate Knowledge ■ Gaps and Challenges to Climate Knowledge Production ■ APEC Climate Center and its response APEC Climate Center Climate change information and its application APEC Climate Center Uncertainty in Climate information Headlines following the 2013 publication of the AR5 Report may look like this: Trenberth (2010) warns that the improvements in models in IPCC AR5 may yield more uncertainty because of more factors and patterns of interactions considered. APEC Climate Center “Unknown unknowns” "Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know." APEC Climate Center Climate and Climate Knowledge APEC Climate Center Uncertainty in Decision-making (Morgan et al 2009) Climate system is a complex, interactive and dynamic system Kinds of uncertainty 1. Random and systematic errors in measurement 2. Probability distributions from expert elicitation 3. Ignorance – the “(monstrously large) blindspots” Methods for estimating uncertainty 1.Model-generated uncertainty estimates 2.Expert elicitation A few notes: Decisions under uncertainty are made all the time by individuals, firms and businesses, governments, etc. What is important is to accurately characterize and communicate uncertainty (i.e. avoiding use of subjective language such as likely, unlikely, etc.) APEC Climate Center Importance of Two-way Communication Channels Current ways of communication between producers and users: Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) Boundary organizations (IRI, CSIRO, CIIFEN) Lugon (2010) identifies examples and best practices Some points: Communication is still ad hoc Regular, institutionalized interface with users is still not common in RCCs and NHMSs GFCS to create a roadmap on how interface can be done APEC Climate Center Importance of Two-way Communication Channels Some important questions that need to be addressed: 1.What are the information and knowledge needs of various sectors? 2.At what temporal and spatial scales would information be useful? 3.How available are climate forecasts in decision-making? 4.What is actionable climate information? (build up knowledge) These questions will only be addressed with open communication and collaboration between producers and users. Desired end-results: Co-production of knowledge among producers and users Feedback loops that inform producers on what kind of information is needed Climate information products that are tailor-fit to various users. APEC Climate Center Technology and Knowledge Production Uses of technology in knowledge production 1.Communication platform - Internet as a collaboration tool - Wikis and social networking websites allow for the updating of knowledge in real time and more and faster learning (i.e. weAdapt.org) - Online tools allow sharing of knowledge and ability to work together (i.e. Mendeley, Lotus Notes, Adobe Buzzword, etc.) dynamism, update our knowledge in real time, learn from others experiences - Email discussion lists and web forums allow for real-time interaction among scientists, adaptation specialists, development workers, etc. APEC Climate Center Technology and Knowledge Production 2. Data access and services - Databases for storing vast amounts of data (PCMDI) - Google Earth layers - Software and decision-support tools APCC’s CLIK, IRI’s CPT and others Climate science and adaptation require fast action. Hence knowledge exchange is crucial, particularly as the gaps in our knowledge are filled through experiences learned on the ground and not theory. Availability of technology should not undermine the value of interpersonal communication APEC Climate Center Presentation Outline ■ The Climate System, Climate Information and Climate Knowledge ■ Gaps and Challenges to Climate Knowledge Production ■ APEC Climate Center and its response APEC Climate Center APEC Climate Center Bring economies together to discuss ways and do things to enhance economic well being of member nations through better utilization of climate information APEC Climate Center Sharing of High-Cost Climate Information APEC Climate Center APCC activities Global climate forecast collected from 17 institutes issue Monthly rolling 3-month MME climate forecast Researches on intraseasonal to decadal prediction and climate change projection International Collaborations and Outreach activity ··· ··· MME Climate Forecast Joint Research Production, Analysis, & Dissemination International Collaboration Climate Monitoring Outreach & Training Program APEC Climate Center Monthly update of climate prediction Day of the month Activity 1~10 11~15 Standardization Data collection & quality check 16~21 22~23 Analysis and production Outlook release & upload to website www.apcc21.org APEC Climate Center APCC Activities APCC’s modest efforts to respond to challenges and operate in the said context: APEC Climate Symposium - 2010 Forum on Disaster Preparedness - 2011 theme on agriculture, water resource management and energy efficiency CLIK (Climate Information Toolkit) - Currently most of the users are NHMSs - Find ways of how CLIK can be marketed to and used by adaptation sector and decision-makers Virtual Center - Publish contributed articles centering on how climate information and research can be used by different sectors (public health, marine resource conservation, urban planning, water resource management, energy efficiency, tourism, etc.) APEC Climate Center Capacity building: interactive service tools http://clik.apcc21.net •AFS : Automated Forecast System/ CMS : Climate Monitoring System/ DFT: Downscale Forecast Tool •ADSS : APEC Climate Center Data Service System APEC Climate Center APCC Activities Survey on Using Climate Information for Disaster Preparedness - Conducted in 2010 together with the APEC Emergency Preparedness Working Group Networking - Improved collaboration across institutions and APEC fora: Agricultural Technical Cooperation Working Group, Energy Working Group, Climate Change and Sustainable Development Working Group, Fisheries Working Group, Marine Resource Conservation Working Group APEC Climate Center APCC Activities Planned activities and projects: Collaboration with University of Aizu in developing tools and ITbased climate information and knowledge products - MOU signed last November 19, 2010 - commence projects in early 2011 Commence research on climate change and application for 2011 - Active recruitment of scientists with specialization on climate change and climate information application - Increased funding for climate change research - more interdisciplinary studies with experts in socioeconomic sectors Development of communications strategy - Examine accessibility of our products (language used in 3-month seasonal outlook, written descriptions for maps, explanations of variables, links to important resources) - Map out profile of current and prospective users APEC Climate Center Thank You. APEC Climate Center References and Resources Castree, Noel. 2010. Review of A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data and the Politics of Global Warming by Paul N. Edwards. American Scientist. The American Scientist. Available at http://www.americanscientist.org/bookshelf/pub/how-we-makeknowledge-about-climate-change (accessed November 3, 2010). Goddard, Lisa, Youcef Aitchellouche, Walter Baethgen, Michael Dettinger, Richard Graham, Peter Hayman, Mohammed Kadi, Rodney Martinez and Holger Meinke. 2009. Providing Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Information for Risk Management and Decision Making. White Paper for the Third World Climate Conference, Geneva. http://www.wmo.int/wcc3/sessionsdb/documents/WS3_WP_needs.doc (accessed November 3, 2010). Lugon, Ralph. Climate information for decision-making: lessons learned from effective user-provider communication schemes. 2010. Technical report for a one-year project of Graduate Institute Centre for International Governance. http://graduateinstitute.ch/webdav/site/cig/shared/CIG/climate/Report%20%20Climate%20Information/Climate%20Information%20for%20Decision%20Making%20Report.pdf (accessed November 3,2010). Meinke, Holger, Rohan Nelson, Phil Kokic, Roger Stone, Ramasamy Selvaraju and Walter Baethgen. 2006. Actionable climate knowledge: from analysis to synthesis. Climate Research 33, no. 1: 101-110. Morgan, M. Granger, Hadi, Dowlatabadi, Max Henrion, David Keith, Robert Lempert, Sandra McBride, Mitchell Small and Thomas Willibanks. 2009. Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making. Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2. http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap5-2/sap5-2-final-reportall.pdf (accessed November 26, 2010). Shackley, Simon and Brian Wynne. 1995. Integrating knowledges for climate change: Pyramids, nets and uncertainties. Global Environmental Change 5, no. 2: 113-126. Trenberth, Kevin. 2010. More Knowledge, Less Certainty. Commentary in Nature Reports Climate Change 4. Published online. http://www.nature.com/climate/2010/1002/full/climate.2010.06.html Vogel, Coleen and Karen O’Brien. 2006. Who can eat information? Examining the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecasts and regional climate-risk management strategies. Climate Research 33, no. 1: 111-122. APEC Climate Center