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Transcript
Detailed projections of
coastal climate change until
2100 in N Europe
Hans von Storch, Katja Woth, Ralf Weisse, Burkhardt
Rockel and Lidia Gaslikova
GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany
ESSP conference, Beijing, 12. November 2006
Parallel 37: Sea level rise, vulnerability and impacts
Overview
• Downscaling cascade to describe
regional and local weather related
variability n past decades.
• Usage of the same cascade to construct
consistent scenarios of possible future
regional and local climate conditions.
• Outlook
Aber wie sieht es regional
und lokal aus?
Hydrodynamisches Modell
der Nordseezirkulation
Katja Woth
Globales Geschehen
Dynamisches Downscaling
Pegel St. Pauli
Zusammenarbeit u. a. mit BAW, BSH, ALR Husum,
FSK Norderney, Hamburg Port Authority u.a.
Empirisches Downscaling
Extreme wind speeds over sea
– simulated and recorded
simuliert
Beobachtet
Trends of annual
percentiles of surge
heights
1958-2002
50%iles
Weisse & Plüß, 2005
1958-2002
90%iles
Changing significant waveheight, 1958-2002
waves
wind
waves
EU-Project PRUDENCE
(Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change
risks and Effects)
GCM
Global
Climate
today
Model
(HadAM3)
IPCC A2
SRES
Scenario
scenario
(1961-1990
/
2071-2100)
global
RCMs
Regional
Climate
Models:
today
- CLM
- REMO
- HIRHAM
-scenario
RCAO
Storm Surge
Model for
theImpact
North Sea:
model
Impact
scenarios
- TRIM 3D
scale
local
A2 - CTL: changes in 99 % - iles of wind speed (6 hourly, DJF): west wind
sector selected (247.5 to 292.5 deg)
HIRHAM
RCAO
REMO5
CLM
Changes of annual 99-percentile wave heights averaged across a series of simulations using
different models and scenarios (in m).
Colouring indicates areas where signals from all models and scenarios have the same sign; redpositive, blue-negative.
Weisse und Grabemann, 2006
Projections for the future / surge
meteorological forcing: HIRHAM / RCA
Differences in inter-annual
percentiles of surge / A2 - CTL:
HIRHAM
Differences in inter-annual
percentiles of surge / A2 - CTL:
RCA
“Localisation”: From the coast
into the estuary
St Pauli
Only the effect of changing
weather conditions is
considered, not the effect of
water works such as dredging
the shipping channel.
Scenarios
2030, 2085
Outlook
• Similar challenges with assessing changes of
other storms – tropical typhoons (SE Asia)
and extra-tropical polar lows (N Atlantic)
• “Detection and Attribution”
• Dataset CoastDat
• Storms and damage
New efforts underway at GKSS
The CoastDat-effort at the Institute for
Coastal Research at GKSS ([email protected])
 Long-term, high-resolution reconstuctions (50 years) of present and recent
developments of weather related phenomena in coastal regions as well as
scenarios of future developments (100 years)
 Northeast Atlantic and northern Europe
 “Standard” model systems (“frozen”)
 Assessment of changes in storms, ocean waves, storm surges, currents and
regional transport of anthropogenic substances.
 Data freely available.
Applications
 many authorities with responsibilities for different aspects of the German coasts
 economic applications by engineering companies (off-shore wind potentials and
risks) and shipbuilding company
Public information

www.coastdat.de
Damages and storms
(Meeting of scientists and re-insurances; with Munich Re;
Hohenkammer, May 2006)
Consensus statement:
„1.
Climate change is real, and has a significant human component
related to greenhouse gases.
2.
Direct economic losses of global disasters have increased in
recent decades with particularly large increases since the 1980s.
8.
Analyses of long-term records of disaster losses indicate that
societal change and economic development are the principal factors
responsible for the documented increasing losses to date.
9.
The vulnerability of communities to natural disasters is
determined by their economic development and other social
characteristics.
10.
There is evidence that changing patterns of extreme events
are drivers for recent increases in global losses.
13.
In the near future the quantitative link (attribution) of trends
in storm and flood losses to climate changes related to GHG emissions
is unlikely to be answered unequivocally.“