Download Storms - analysis, statistics and changes

coastDat: Ongoing and expected
regional climate change: wind, surge and
wave conditions in the North Sea
Hans von Storch
[email protected]
http://coast.gkss.de/staff/storch
Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center
and KlimaCampus, U of Hamburg,
Germany
What is coastDat?
A set of model data of recent, ongoing and possible future coastal
climate
(hindcasts 1948-2008, reconstructions and scenarios for the future, e.g., 2070-2100)
Based on experiences and activities in a number of national and
international projects (e.g. WASA, HIPOCAS, STOWASUS, PRUDENCE)
Presently contains atmospheric and oceanographic parameter
(e.g. near-surface winds, pressure, temperature and humidity; upper air meteorological data
such as geopotential height, cloud cover, temperature and humidity; oceanographic data
such as sea states (wave heights, periods, directions, spectra) or water levels (tides and
surges) and depth averaged currents, ocean temperatures)
Covers different geographical regions
(presently mainly the North Sea and parts of the Northeast Atlantic; other areas such as the
Baltic Sea, subarctic regions or E-Asia are to be included)
http://www.coastdat.de, contact: Ralf Weisse ([email protected])
Downscaling cascade
Wind and Waves at K13
Wind speed [m/s]
Sig. wave height [m]
Observations – black;
Wind direction [degrees]
Mean wave direction [degrees]
Hindcast - green
(Weisse and Günther. 2007)
Stormcount 1958-2001
t<
t>
C/year
Changing significant wave height, 1958-2002
waves
50,75, 90, 95, 99 and 99.9%iles of
significant wave heights (m) and
linear trends
wind
Storm surges-scenarios for 2085
A2 -changes in
99 % - iles of
wind speed
(6 hourly, DJF):
west wind
sector selected
(247.5 to 292o)
HIRHAM
RCAO
- of the order of  10%
- thus, per decade less than 1-2%
 change should not be detectable at this time.
Woth, 2005, GRL
Increase of strong wind speeds (seasonal 99%iles;
westerly winds) until 2070-2100 as compared to
1960-1990.
Local storm surge
rise - scenarios for
2030, 2085
incuding sea level
rise (IPCC AR4)
Only the effect of
changing weather
conditions is considered,
not the effect of water
works such as dredging
the shipping channel.
RCAO/HAD
RCAO/ECH
A2
Max. Change 2071-2100
+5-10% relative to present
~+1%/decade if linear increase
assumed
Present Day 99%ile
Annual 99%ile
significant
wave height
Climate
Change
Signals [m]
2071-2100 ./.
B2 1961-1990
(Grabemann and Weisse
2008)
(IPCC, 2001)
Applications – marine-meteo issues
More than 30 national &
international clients/users
Industry, Administration,
Authorities, Research
Some applications of coastDat
(as of February 2009)
- Ship design
- Problem:
. RoRo liners operating on fixed routes
. Operation time critical
- Idea:
. Optimization of velocity profile taking
environmental conditions into account
(e.g. water depth, wave height, wave angle)
- Example:
. 200 m RoRo liner Zeebrügge-Immingham
. Compared to conventional approach delayed
in 7% of time; only in 0.5% more than 30 min
. Reduced operation costs
(200 TEUR/year due to reduced fuel consumption)
Source: Flensburger Schiffbau Gesellschaft
Some applications of coastDat
(as of February 2009)
- Ship design II
- Problem:
. Motion of ship depends on several environmentally
based design parameters
. Need to improve sea keeping behavior
. Different options may exist (e.g. roll stabilization
tanks, active fin stabilizers)
- Idea:
. Different costs and different efficiencies for
the different options
. Use coastDat to estimate statistics of e.g. weather
downtime with and without fin stabilizers
. decision support for the ship operator on whether
the improvement of the sea-keeping behavior is
worth the investment into a roll stabilization
system
Source: Flensburger Schiffbau Gesellschaft
Some applications of coastDat
(as of February 2009)
- Ship design
- Navigational safety
2.5 m
- Background:
. EU safety regulations for RoRo
passenger vessels
2.0 m
1.5 m
- Criteria:
. Sig. wave height of 1.5, 2.5, 4.0 m exceeded
in less than 10% of time (according to ship
specifications)
. Distance to next harbor
(Source: BSH)
Some applications of coastDat
(as of February 2009)
- Ship design
- Navigational safety
- Offshore wind
- Wind and sea state statistics
. Wind power availability
. Design of structures
. Design of entire system
(ultimate and fatigue limit
states)
. Planning of installation
. Planning of maintenance
(weather windows)
(Source: BSH)
Some applications of coastDat
(as of February 2009)
- Ship design
- Navigational safety
- Offshore wind
- Oils spill risk
- Hypothetical oil accidents
. Any source region
. Any target region of interest
. Hypothetical accidents every hour
over 50 years (sampling of large
variety of different possible weather conditions)
- Probability distributions
. E.g. of travel times
. May be combined with different accident
probabilities, oil fighting strategies & sensitivities
Target Region
Hypothetical
Source Region
(Source: U. Callies)
Some applications of coastDat
(as of February 2009)
- Ship design
- Navigational safety
- Offshore wind
- Oils spill risk
- Chronic Oil Pollution
. Usually from illegal oil dumping
. Number of beached oil contaminated birds
usually taken as indicator for trends in chronic
oil pollution
. Simulation with coastDat suggests that weather
variability has to be accounted for in the interpretation
(Source: A. Chrastansky)
Some applications of coastDat
(as of February 2009)
- Ship design
- Navigational safety
- Offshore wind
- Oils spill risk
- Chronic Oil Pollution
- Ocean Energy
Wave Energy Flux [kW/m]
. Ocean Energy Potential
. Different Sources
. Wave Energy Flux [kW/m]
. Currents Power [W/m2] cross section
Currents Power [W/m2]
(Source: R. Weisse)
Weisse, R., H. von Storch, U.
Callies, A. Chrastansky, F. Feser,
I. Grabemann, H. Günther, A.
Plüss, T. Stoye, J. Tellkamp, J.
Winterfeldt and K. Woth, 2009:
Regional meteo-marine
reanalyses and climate change
projections: Results for Northern
Europe and potentials for
coastal and offshore
applications.
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 90:
849-860
(open access)