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Transcript
Role of EPA in Managing Climate Change
Dr. Ken Macken
Programme Manager
Climate Change Unit
April 4, 2008
Outline
 Background to Climate Change issue
 International actions (UN and EU)
 Ireland’s position
 National Policy
 EPA Climate Change Programme
Warming of the
climate system
is unequivocal
a)
Increasing global
air and ocean
temperatures
b)
Rising global
average sea level
c)
Reductions in
snow and ice
cover
CLIMATE CHANGE
 There are currently six Greenhouse Gases recognised by the
UNFCCC:






Carbon dioxide (CO2) – 67.2% (as CO2 equivalents) in 2005
Methane (CH4 ) - 18.9% (as CO2 equivalents) in 2005
Nitrous oxide (N2O) – 12.7% (as CO2 equivalents) in 2005
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
 Under the Kyoto Protocol, the EU committed itself to reducing its
overall greenhouse gases emissions by 8% from1990 levels during the
first commitment period from 2008 to 2012.
 Under the EU Burden Sharing Agreement, Ireland was actually
permitted a 13% increase on 1990 levels, giving us an average Kyoto
target for the 2008-12 period of 63 Mt/a.
GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL
GWP is the ratio of the warming effect of one kilogamme of a greenhouse gas
to that of one kilogramme of carbon dioxide over a set period of time (usually
100 years).
GAS
Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Nitrous Oxide
HFC-134a
HFC-23
HFC-152a
HCF-125
PFCs*
SF6
GWP 1996
1
21
310
1,300
11,700
140
2,800
7,850
23,900
*This figure is an average GWP for the two PFCs, CF4 and C2F6.
Changes in Greenhouse Gas
(GHG) concentrations over last
10,000 years:
a) Carbon dioxide
b) Methane
c) Nitrous oxide
GHG Concentration changes
Greenfacts – where we are now
 The warming of global climate is now unequivocal.
 More specifically, eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank among
the 12 warmest years ever recorded since global surface temperatures are
measured (1850). Over the last 100 years (1906–2005), global temperature
has increased by 0.74°C.
 Global sea level has risen by 17 cm during the 20th century, in part because
of the melting of snow and ice from many mountains and in the polar
regions. More regional changes have also been observed, including changes
in Arctic temperatures and ice, ocean salinity, wind patterns, droughts,
precipitations, frequency of heat waves and intensity of tropical cyclones.
 The temperatures of the last half century are unusual in comparison with
those of at least the previous 1300 years. The last time that the polar regions
remained significantly warmer than now for a very extended period (125,000
years ago), the sea level rose by 4 to 6 meters.
 Most of the increase in global temperature observed over the past fifty years
is very likely due to human emissions of greenhouse gases.
Greenfacts – where we are heading
 The global average temperature is expected to increase by about 0.2°C per
decade over the next two decades. Continuing greenhouse gas emissions at
or above current rates would cause a further increase in global temperatures
and many other climatic changes during the 21st century.
 The best estimates for projected global temperature increases from the
1980s to the end of the 21st century range from 1.8°C (1.1 - 2.9°C) to 4°C
(2.4 - 6.4°C) for the IPCC scenarios that do not consider additional mitigation
measures apart from those already in place in 2000.
 Global average sea level is expected to rise by 18 to 59 cm by the end of the
21st century. Warming is expected to be greatest over land and at high
northern latitudes and smallest over the Southern Ocean and parts of the
North Atlantic Ocean. Other projected changes include acidification of the
oceans, reduced snow cover and sea ice, more frequent heat waves and
heavy precipitation, more intense tropical cyclones, and slower oceanic
currents.
 Warming and sea level rise caused by human activities will continue for
centuries, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilised. If
warming persists over many centuries, it could lead to a complete melting of
the Greenland Ice sheet, increasing global sea levels by about 7m.
No one lives at the global average!
Medium
(A1B)
scenario
(2090-2099):
Global mean
warming 2.8oC
Much of land
area warms by
~3.5oC
Arctic warms
by ~6oC.
Projected
changes in the
Arctic by
2090-2100
Climate Change - International Framework
 United Nations Economic Council for Europe (UNECE)
Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution
(CLRTAP)
 Oldest convention (1979) addressing issues of transboundary air pollution on a
regional basis.
 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
 Established in 1988, by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
 The UNFCCC and its Subsidiary Bodies
 The IPCC First Assessment Report in 1990 lead to the establishment of the
United Nation’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992.
 The Kyoto Protocol
 Agreed in 1997 following the publication of the IPCC Second Assessment
Report
 Present Position
 Following publication in 2007 of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and
the agreement on a Bali roadmap in December 2007, the UNFCCC is
attempting to ensure a follow-up to the Kyoto Protocol can be agreed by end
2009.
Climate Change - European Framework
 EU and UNFCCC
 EU is a key supporter of the UNFCCC through the COP/MOP and SBSTA.
 EU Emissions Trading Scheme
 ETS is the main EU policy instrument to assist in achieving reductions in
GHG at least cost.
 European Climate Change Programme
 ECCP is the main EC instrument for further development of the EU's
climate policy.
 ECCP consists of several working groups addressing:
 ECCP I review (transport, energy supply, energy demand, non-CO2 gases,
agriculture)
 Aviation;
 CO2 and cars;
 Carbon capture and storage;
 Adaptation;
 EU Emission Trading Scheme review.
Climate Change – EU Proposals to 2020
 Starting point is a 20% overall reduction compared to 1990 (equivalent to a
14% reduction compared to 2005). This will become a 30% reduction in the
event of a follow-on international agreement.
 In order to minimise the overall reduction cost, the 20% is to be
apportioned as:
 A 21% reduction in EU ETS sector emissions by 2020 compared to 2005;
 An average reduction of around 10% compared to 2005 for the sectors that are not covered
by the EU ETS. This varies for MS from +20% to –20% depending on GDP with Ireland
facing –20%.
 Package comprises
 Proposal amending the EU Emissions Trading Directive (EU ETS);
 Proposal relating on effort sharing for sectors not covered by the EU emissions trading
system (such as transport, buildings, services, smaller industrial installations, agriculture
and waste);
 Proposal for a Directive promoting renewable energy (including possible trading between
MS of any over-achievement of the renewables’ target);
 Proposal for a legal framework on carbon capture and storage; and
 New guidelines for environmental state aid.
NCCS 2007 - 2012









Energy Supply
Transport
Residential
Industry, Commercial and Services
Agriculture, Land-use and Forestry
Waste
Public Sector
Cross-sectoral
Adaptation
Ireland 2007 (McElwain & Sweeney,NUIM)
 Ireland is now on average 0.7°C warmer than a century
ago.
 Our climate is warming at a rate of 0.42°C per decade
since 1980.
 Six of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 1995.
 We now have fewer frost days, and a shorter frost season.
 The rain in the north and west is now heavier and more
persistent, ‘precipitation events’ bringing over 10mm of
rain are now more common and, as a result, conditions
there are wetter.
 Conditions in the south and east of the country are on
average drier than in the past.
EPA Climate Change Programme
EPA are responsible for:
 Implementation of Emissions Trading Directive
 Including National Registry and Kyoto Project Mechanisms
 Reporting and Review of National Inventories (for
Greenhouse gases and for Acid Gases);
 Preparation of National Emissions Projections (for
Greenhouse Gases and for Acid Gases);
 Co-ordination of Climate Change Research (in particular the
IDC- SSTI research programme);
 Air and Climate Science (including Acid Gases and Earth
Observations).
Ireland’s GHG Emissions by Sector 1990-2006
80,000
Waste
Killotonnes of CO 2 Equivalent
70,000
Annual Target for Period 2008-2012
Transport
60,000
50,000
Agriculture
40,000
Industry & Commercial
30,000
Residential
20,000
10,000
Energy
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Trends in GHG Emissions by Sector 1990-2006
25,000
Energy
20,000
kilotonnes CO2 eq.
Residential
15,000
Industry & Commercial
10,000
Agriculture
Transport
5,000
Waste
0
1990 1991
1992 1993 1994 1995
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
2001 2002 2003 2004
2005 2006
Climate Change - National Context
 Ireland is a Party to the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol. Ireland is also
a member of the IPCC.
 Kyoto Protocol target (through EU Burden Sharing Agreement) of 113% of 1990 (63
Mt/a).
 The DEHLG develops the national policy response to climate change.
 Recently published the revised National Climate Change Strategy (2007).
 Relevant targets include: electricity from renewables (15% by 2010 – 33% by 2020);
Biofuels requirement (5.75% by 2010 and 10% by 2020);
 Main Government Departments involved in Climate Change:
 Environment, Heritage and Local Government; Agriculture, Fisheries and Food;
Communications, Energy and Natural Resources ; and Transport & the Marine.
 Main Agencies involved in Climate Change:
 EPA; Met Eireann; Teagasc; Council for Forest research (COFORD); Marine Institute
(MI); Sustainable Energy Ireland (SEI); Geological Survey of Ireland (GSI).
 Programme for Government
 National target of 3%/pa reductions in actual GHG emissions;
 Carbon Budget to form part of annual budget debate
 EU committed to 20% (30%?) reductions post 2012 – new “Target Sharing” agreement
due.