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Global Warming Mitigation of climate change 45.315 Cumulative Radiative Forcing of 1990 Emissions 45.315 45.315 Per capita energy use, 1989 (Kg of coal equivalent) 45.315 United States FSU Germany Japan 10127 6546 5377 4032 Mexico Turkey China Brazil 1689 958 810 798 India Indonesia Nigeria Bangladesh 307 274 192 69 45.315 Cumulative carbon emissions, 1950-1996 15,715 China 11,651 Germany 8,504 Japan 7,415 United Kingdom India 4,235 Canada 4,054 South Africa 2,331 Mexico 2,118 Australia 2,080 Brazil 1,557 Korea, Rep. 1,361 966 Indonesia 50,795 United States 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Million tons of carbon 45.315 Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2):1750 to present 370 parts per million volume 360 350 340 Siple Station (1750-1970) 330 Mauna Loa (1958-present) 320 310 300 290 280 270 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Data Source: C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf, Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (ppmv) derived from in situ air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, August 1998. A. Neftel et al, Historical CO2 Record from the Siple Station Ice Core, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland, September 1994. See http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/contents.htm 45.315 Sustainability • Sustainably means that: – We use the essential products and processes of nature no more quickly than they can be renewed/produced – We discharge wastes no more quickly than they can be absorbed. 45.315 Nature and Economy 45.315 Ecological Footprint • We can sum the land requirements for a defined population – The total area represents the Ecological Footprint of that population, whether or not this area coincides with the home region of the population. – The EF measures the land area used per unit person (or population) rather than population per unit area (carrying capacity). 45.315 Footprints of Nations (hectares/person) Energy Land Cropland Pasture Forest Built-up land Total 45.315 Canada 2.34 Netherlands 2.1 0.68 0.46 0.59 0.2 0.45 0.26 0.47 0.04 4.27 3.32 India 0.05 0.20 0.13 N/A 0.38 Footprint of the Netherlands 45.315 Ecological Deficit Country India Japan Denmark France Netherlands Australia Canada U.S.A. EPL 250000000 30417000 3270000 45385000 2300000 575993000 434477000 725643000 Population EPL/capita 910000000 0.27 125000000 0.24 5200000 0.63 57800000 0.79 15500000 0.15 17900000 32.18 28500000 15.24 258000000 2.81 EPL: Ecologically Productive Land NED: National Ecological Deficit (Surplus) 45.315 EF NED 0.38 -0.11 2.00 -1.76 3.00 -2.37 3.00 -2.21 3.32 -3.17 3.70 28.48 4.30 10.94 5.10 -2.29 Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2):1750 to present 370 parts per million volume 360 350 340 Siple Station (1750-1970) 330 Mauna Loa (1958-present) 320 310 300 290 280 270 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Data Source: C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf, Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (ppmv) derived from in situ air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, August 1998. A. Neftel et al, Historical CO2 Record from the Siple Station Ice Core, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland, September 1994. See http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/contents.htm 45.315 Agenda 21: Article 7 – States shall cooperate in a spirit of global partnership to conserve, protect and restore the health and integrity of the Earth's ecosystem. • In view of the different contributions to global environmental degradation, States have common but differentiated responsibilities. • The developed countries acknowledge the responsibility that they bear in view of the pressures their societies place on the global environment and of the technologies and financial resources they command. 45.315 Agenda 21: Climate Action • Recent trends show that global emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise, and are not expected to abate in the absence of government imposed controls. – The 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change established the objective of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases "at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system." 45.315 Slowing Global Warming • Reduce emissions - the quickest, cheapest, most effective way to reduce emissions is to use energy more efficiently. • Slow population growth - if we cut per capita greenhouse gas emissions in half, but double the population - we do not help the problem. 45.315 Sooner is Better • Beginning global emission reductions sooner rather than later would result in less drastic future cuts (and less costly for future generations) required to achieve a given stabilization target. 45.315 Present Reality • Emissions of the major greenhouse gases in the United States, the world's leading emitter, are already about 12 percent higher than 1990 levels. Canada is at +15%. – According to Department of Energy forecasts, carbon emissions in the US are expected to reach 33 percent above 1990 levels by 2010 in the absence of policy changes that reduce energy use and change consumer behaviors. 45.315 Kyoto Protocol • The Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, negotiated by over 160 countries in December 1997. – The agreement would require 38 industrialized countries to reduce the emissions of six major greenhouse gases by an average of 5.2 percent by 2010-2012. 45.315 Kyoto Targets Australia Canada European Union Japan New Zealand Norway Poland Russian Federation United States 45.315 8% -6 -8 -6 0 1 -6 0 -7 Potential impact • Relative to B-as-U, the Protocol represents a 30% emissions reduction in the industrialized countries. The agreement encourages governments to: • improve energy efficiency, • reform the energy and transportation sectors, • protect forests and other carbon sinks, • promote renewable forms of energy, • phase out existing incentives that promote the wasteful use of energy. 45.315 How much will the Kyoto Protocol reduce emissions? Business-as-usual Kyoto Protocol scenario Billion tons of carbon 8 6 7.6 6.4 5.8 4 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 Data Sources: United States Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook, 1998 and 1999. 45.315 8.0 2010 How Effective is it? • Reducing emissions is not the same as stabilizing concentrations of CO2 – According to global carbon emission projections, emission levels in 2010 are still expected to be more than 30 percent higher than 1990 levels even with the agreement. • The emission cuts by industrialized countries will be more than offset by emission increases from developing countries that are not bound by emission limitations under the Kyoto Protocol. 45.315 Kyoto Reality • At issue is the likelihood and practicality of reaching the country targets established by the Kyoto Protocol. – Thus far, very few industrialized countries have taken the concrete domestic actions necessary to reach the 2008-2012 target emission levels 45.315 Canada’s Situation • There are many reasons why we produce a lot of greenhouse gases in Canada. • We have a cold climate, which means we use more energy and produce more emissions heating our homes than many other countries. • We are the second biggest country in the world, with great distances between our cities, which means that we travel more than citizens of many other nations. 45.315 Canada’s Situation • We extract and process large amounts of natural resources for our own use and for export to other countries. This type of industry uses much more energy and produces more emissions. • We have a very high standard of living. All of the things we buy and all of the trips we take consume energy and create more greenhouse gas emissions. 45.315 45.315 Nunavut NWT Yukon BC Alberta Sask Manitoba Ontario Quebec NB Nova Scotia PEI Nfdland 45.315 50 40 30 20 Tonnes/person GHG Emissions in Canada 70 60 10 0 Canada’s position • Canada is arguing that we should be looking at net emissions - that is source strength (emissions) minus sink strength. – Canada wants to receive (some) credits for the forest carbon sinks on its territory. 45.315 Wind Power • By the year 2010, Denmark intends to produce half its total electricity by wind power. – They are now the world leader in wind power technology, and it’s a growth industry. – The technology is being exported worldwide. 45.315