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Global Warming
Mitigation of climate change
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Cumulative Radiative Forcing of
1990 Emissions
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Per capita energy use, 1989
(Kg of coal equivalent)
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United States
FSU
Germany
Japan
10127
6546
5377
4032
Mexico
Turkey
China
Brazil
1689
958
810
798
India
Indonesia
Nigeria
Bangladesh
307
274
192
69
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Cumulative carbon emissions,
1950-1996
15,715
China
11,651
Germany
8,504
Japan
7,415
United Kingdom
India
4,235
Canada
4,054
South Africa
2,331
Mexico
2,118
Australia
2,080
Brazil
1,557
Korea, Rep.
1,361
966
Indonesia
50,795
United States
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Million tons of carbon
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Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide
(CO2):1750 to present
370
parts per million volume
360
350
340
Siple Station (1750-1970)
330
Mauna Loa (1958-present)
320
310
300
290
280
270
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Data Source: C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf, Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (ppmv) derived from in situ air samples collected at Mauna Loa
Observatory, Hawaii, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, August 1998. A. Neftel et al, Historical CO2 Record from the Siple Station Ice
Core, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland, September 1994. See http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/contents.htm
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Sustainability
• Sustainably means that:
– We use the essential products and processes of
nature no more quickly than they can be
renewed/produced
– We discharge wastes no more quickly than they
can be absorbed.
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Nature and Economy
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Ecological Footprint
• We can sum the land requirements for a
defined population 
– The total area represents the Ecological
Footprint of that population, whether or not
this area coincides with the home region of the
population.
– The EF measures the land area used per unit
person (or population) rather than population
per unit area (carrying capacity).
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Footprints of Nations
(hectares/person)
Energy
Land
Cropland
Pasture
Forest
Built-up
land
Total
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Canada
2.34
Netherlands
2.1
0.68
0.46
0.59
0.2
0.45
0.26
0.47
0.04
4.27
3.32
India
0.05
0.20
0.13
N/A
0.38
Footprint of
the
Netherlands
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Ecological Deficit
Country
India
Japan
Denmark
France
Netherlands
Australia
Canada
U.S.A.
EPL
250000000
30417000
3270000
45385000
2300000
575993000
434477000
725643000
Population EPL/capita
910000000
0.27
125000000
0.24
5200000
0.63
57800000
0.79
15500000
0.15
17900000
32.18
28500000
15.24
258000000
2.81
EPL: Ecologically Productive Land
NED: National Ecological Deficit (Surplus)
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EF NED
0.38 -0.11
2.00 -1.76
3.00 -2.37
3.00 -2.21
3.32 -3.17
3.70 28.48
4.30 10.94
5.10 -2.29
Atmospheric carbon dioxide
(CO2):1750 to present
370
parts per million volume
360
350
340
Siple Station (1750-1970)
330
Mauna Loa (1958-present)
320
310
300
290
280
270
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Data Source: C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf, Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (ppmv) derived from in situ air samples collected at Mauna Loa
Observatory, Hawaii, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, August 1998. A. Neftel et al, Historical CO2 Record from the Siple Station Ice
Core, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland, September 1994. See http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/contents.htm
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Agenda 21: Article 7
– States shall cooperate in a spirit of global
partnership to conserve, protect and restore the
health and integrity of the Earth's ecosystem.
• In view of the different contributions to global
environmental degradation, States have common but
differentiated responsibilities.
• The developed countries acknowledge the
responsibility that they bear in view of the pressures
their societies place on the global environment and
of the technologies and financial resources they
command.
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Agenda 21: Climate Action
• Recent trends show that global emissions of
greenhouse gases continue to rise, and are
not expected to abate in the absence of
government imposed controls.
– The 1992 Framework Convention on Climate
Change established the objective of stabilizing
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
"at a level that would prevent dangerous
interference with the climate system."
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Slowing Global Warming
• Reduce emissions - the quickest, cheapest,
most effective way to reduce emissions is to
use energy more efficiently.
• Slow population growth - if we cut per
capita greenhouse gas emissions in half, but
double the population - we do not help the
problem.
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Sooner is Better
• Beginning global
emission reductions
sooner rather than
later would result in
less drastic future cuts
(and less costly for
future generations)
required to achieve a
given stabilization
target.
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Present Reality
• Emissions of the major greenhouse gases in
the United States, the world's leading
emitter, are already about 12 percent higher
than 1990 levels. Canada is at +15%.
– According to Department of Energy forecasts,
carbon emissions in the US are expected to
reach 33 percent above 1990 levels by 2010 in
the absence of policy changes that reduce
energy use and change consumer behaviors.
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Kyoto Protocol
• The Kyoto Protocol to the Framework
Convention on Climate Change, negotiated
by over 160 countries in December 1997.
– The agreement would require 38 industrialized
countries to reduce the emissions of six major
greenhouse gases by an average of 5.2 percent
by 2010-2012.
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Kyoto Targets
Australia
Canada
European Union
Japan
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Russian Federation
United States
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8%
-6
-8
-6
0
1
-6
0
-7
Potential impact
• Relative to B-as-U, the Protocol represents a
30% emissions reduction in the industrialized
countries. The agreement encourages
governments to:
• improve energy efficiency,
• reform the energy and transportation sectors,
• protect forests and other carbon sinks,
• promote renewable forms of energy,
• phase out existing incentives that promote the wasteful
use of energy.
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How much will the Kyoto Protocol
reduce emissions?
Business-as-usual
Kyoto Protocol scenario
Billion tons of carbon
8
6
7.6
6.4
5.8
4
2
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
Data Sources: United States Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, International
Energy Outlook, 1998 and 1999.
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8.0
2010
How Effective is it?
• Reducing emissions is not the same as
stabilizing concentrations of CO2
– According to global carbon emission projections,
emission levels in 2010 are still expected to be
more than 30 percent higher than 1990 levels
even with the agreement.
• The emission cuts by industrialized countries will be
more than offset by emission increases from
developing countries that are not bound by emission
limitations under the Kyoto Protocol.
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Kyoto Reality
• At issue is the likelihood and practicality of
reaching the country targets established by
the Kyoto Protocol.
– Thus far, very few industrialized countries have
taken the concrete domestic actions necessary
to reach the 2008-2012 target emission levels
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Canada’s Situation
• There are many reasons why we produce a
lot of greenhouse gases in Canada.
• We have a cold climate, which means we use more
energy and produce more emissions heating our
homes than many other countries.
• We are the second biggest country in the world, with
great distances between our cities, which means that
we travel more than citizens of many other nations.
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Canada’s Situation
• We extract and process large amounts of natural
resources for our own use and for export to other
countries. This type of industry uses much more
energy and produces more emissions.
• We have a very high standard of living. All of the
things we buy and all of the trips we take consume
energy and create more greenhouse gas emissions.
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Nunavut
NWT
Yukon
BC
Alberta
Sask
Manitoba
Ontario
Quebec
NB
Nova Scotia
PEI
Nfdland
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50
40
30
20
Tonnes/person
GHG Emissions in Canada
70
60
10
0
Canada’s position
• Canada is arguing that we should be looking
at net emissions - that is source strength
(emissions) minus sink strength.
– Canada wants to receive (some) credits for the
forest carbon sinks on its territory.
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Wind Power
• By the year 2010, Denmark intends to
produce half its total electricity by wind
power.
– They are now the world leader in wind power
technology, and it’s a growth industry.
– The technology is being exported worldwide.
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