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Social science for the Integrated Assessment of environmental risks and problems. DAY 4: Adapting to climate change: The climate learning ladder Dr. J. David Tàbara Institute of Environmental Science and Technology Autonomous University of Barcelona www.uab.cat/icta Global warming… • Global temperatures could rise between 0.3 -6.4 degrees by 2100, • But very likely we will inevitably have to live in a world 2 degrees warmer by then. The context of climatic risks … Inner Mongolia case study, China. Dust storms – a global environmental concern • 23 March 2002: a relatively clear day • 8 April 2002: extremely dusty skies; dust obscures most of the surface Dust traveling over the Pacific Images taken between April 29 and May 5, 2005 shows dust from the Gobi Desert crossing the Pacific, well on its way to North America • 态环境的变迁 eco-environmental change – 气候的变迁 climate change 0.1℃ 1961-2006年阿盟年平均气温曲线图 105 100 Mean annual temperature change from 1961 to 2006 in Alxa 95 90 85 80 75 70 19 61 19 63 19 65 19 67 19 69 19 71 19 73 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 65 年 Some options: ‘The green wall’: desert reforestation… • (6) Develop international cooperation Artificial rainfall and enclosure of natural areas. Hellan Mountains Method: The climate learning ladder. Goal … To propose a method intended to support deliberation on how to develop capacities to deal with climate change from an integrated social learning perspective… Starting point… ‘More knowledge’ is not enough to develop such capacities. We need to consider other cultural, social and institutional aspects. Such tools and methods need to support broader processes of social learning, networking and agent transformation. ‘The climate learning ladder’ A simple tool aimed at: 1. Support dialogue and facilitate engagement of stakeholders in developing integrated climate policies. 2. Help policy makers identifying key decisions about how to build climate capacities. 3. Help translating and communicating complexity about ‘what to do’ to wider audiences. Basic idea: Building integrated climate capacities depends on a series of necessary conditions or ‘steps’. In particular, on whether relevant agents: 1. Are aware of the problem. 2. Are sufficiently motivated to act. 3. Have sufficiently options and resources to do so. 4. Create institutions to distribute rights and responsibilities and ensure action in the long term. First step: perception and awareness: how can we improve climate awareness? Are we aware of the need to adapt? Second step: incentives and motives: What incentives/disincentives should be designed? Do we want /are we motivated enough to adapt? Third step: individual options and resources; what resources and feasible options do we have to adapt to climate change? What are the Options? Can we adapt? Yes Fourth step: institutions and long-term responsibilities What and how institutions need to be changed or created? Yes Institutions, rights and responsibilities Unlearning can also occur Individual options and resources Motives and incentives 4 Awareness and perception YES, 3 2 ? ? 1 ? NO YES ? NO YES WE YES CAN! YES NO NO, WE CAN’T NO First step: perception and awareness Analysis of the situation: What is the current perception of the risks and opportunities regarding climate change in your region? Policy measures and strategies: How and by what measures can awareness of climate change risks and opportunities be improved? Second step: motives and incentives Analysis of the situation: What are the current incentives to stimulate action regarding adaptation to climate change? Policy measures and strategies: What specific measures and strategies could be implemented to stimulate Adaptation? Third step: Analysis of the situation: What have been so far the transformations and changes in individual practices and interactions as to adapt /reduce exposure to the risks to climate change? Policy measures and strategies: What specific options and resources are or can be developed to adapt to climate change? Fourth step: institutions, (re)distribution of rights and responsibilities Analysis of the situation: What and how institutions /rules need to be reformed as to incorporate concerns and redistribute rights and responsibilities in the long term? Policy measures and strategies: What specific options and measures could be implemented to reform or create new institutions to adapt to climate change? Institutions, rights and responsibilities Unlearning can also occur Individual options and resources Motives and incentives 4 Awareness and perception YES, 3 2 ? ? 1 ? NO YES ? NO YES WE YES CAN! YES NO NO, WE CAN’T NO