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Protecting our Health from Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health Professionals Chapter 2: Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change Overview: This Module Define terms Discusses climate change and how has it been determined that humans are influencing the climate Shows some of the climatic changes that have occurred to date Shows how climate change will affect the weather for decades to centuries Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change Definitions The greenhouse effect Detection and attribution of climate change – What changes have occurred – What changes are projected Definitions Climate is what you expect – Based on 30-year averages – Weather is what we experience day-to-day Climate variability – Short-term fluctuations around the average weather – Includes ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) Climate change – Operates over decades or longer – General circulation models (GCMs) • Scenarios, not predictions IPCC 2007a Global Temperature Variations on Three Time Scales Last million years Last 10,000 years Last 1,000 years Folland et al. 1990 Temperature over Greenland over Past 17,000 Years Alley 2000 1,000 Years of Changes in Carbon Emissions, CO2 Concentrations, and Temperature IPCC 2007a IPCC 2007b IPCC 2007b Global and Continental Temperature Change IPCC 2007b Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases over the Last 10,000 Years IPCC 2007b Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases in the Past 2,000 Years IPCC 2007b Atmospheric CO2 Concentration and Temperature Change Projected concentrations of CO2 during the 21st century are 2-4 times pre-industrial levels Global Average Surface Temperature IPCC 2007b Surface Temperature Anomalies IPCC 2007b Projected Surface Temperatures IPCC 2007b Land Areas Warm More than the Oceans with the Greatest Warming at High Latitudes Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990. Global average in 2085 = 3.1°C. IPCC 2007b Effect of Extreme Temperatures When the Mean Temperature Increases IPCC 2007b Observed, Modeled, and Projected Precipitation IPCC 2007b Some Areas are Projected to Become Wetter, Others Drier Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990. IPCC 2007b IPCC 2007b Palmer Drought Severity Index IPCC 2007b Recent Trends in Climate Sensitive Indicators IPCC 2007b Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface o Temperature Anomalies ( C) IPCC 2007b Sea Level Rise IPCC 2007b IPCC (2007b) Conclusions IPCC 2007b