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Transcript
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data
and climate change science in Geography
James Riley
Head of Geography, The Perse School, Cambridge
Charlotte Woolliscroft
Teacher of Geography, Lawrence Sheriff School, Rugby
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Introductions
James Riley
• GA Conferences
• 2013: Teaching Contemporary Case Studies
• 2011: 40 ideas in 40 minutes
• 2010: Google Earth
•
•
•
•
•
•
Head of Geography, The Perse School (2014-)
Head of Geography, LSS (2011-14)
Teacher of Geography, LSS (2009-)
Geography Education MA, IOE (2014)
Geography PGCE, Oxford (2009)
MSci, Bristol (2008)
•
•
@jmrileytoadhall
@PerseGeography
[email protected]
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
Charlotte Woolliscroft
• Teacher of Geography, Lawrence Sheriff School
(2013-)
• PG. Dip. Ed- University of Birmingham (2012-13)
• BSc Geography - Bangor University (2009-12)
• Short courses - University of Exeter, Climate Change
(2015) provided by future-learn
[email protected]
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Lecture Outline
• Lecture outline + rationale
• Who are the IPCC and how to access their findings
• The AR5 findings
•
•
•
•
Synthesis Report
WGI The Physical Science Basis
WGII Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability
WGIII Mitigation of Climate Change
• IPCC criticism/controversy
• Examples of climate change science in our teaching (KS3 – 5)
• 10 min Q&A
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Who are the IPCC?
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Who are the IPCC?
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• 1988
• UN (WMO and UNEP)
• Produces reports that support the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
• Ultimate objective: “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at
a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate
system” (UNFCCC)
• IPCC don’t collect data; IPCC collate research from scientific experts
• The authority on climate change science
• 2007 Nobel Peace Prize shared by Al Gore and IPCC
• 5 reports: FAR (1990), SAR (1995), TAR (2001), AR4 (2007), AR5 (2014)
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
The Synthesis Report
What can the IPCC offer schools?
• A scientific report which allows
students, teachers and
academics to access a uniform
data set through which
governments set agendas from
• A series of informative images
and resources for lessons
• Facts and figures taken from
reports that are accepted by the
scientific community from 12,000
journals
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
The Synthesis Report
Exactly what is the AR5?
The Physical Science BasisFull Report 1532 pages- summary- 28 pages
Put together by Working Group 1 (WGI)
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Full Report 1820 pages- summary- 32 pages
Put together by Working Group 2 (WGII)
The Synthesis Report pulls the best of
the 3 reports to create a more
manageable report.
Mitigation of Climate Change
Summary – 33 pages
Put together by Working Group 3 (WGIII)
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Misconceptions of Terminology
What is the difference between Climate
Change, Global Warming and the
Greenhouse Effect?
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
IPCC AR5 Findings
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Evidence and Agreement
Evidence
Agreement
Limited
Low
Medium
Medium
Robust
High
Very high
Likelihood of outcomes
Exceptionally unlikely
0-1%
Very unlikely
0-10%
Unlikely
0-33%
About as likely as not
33-66%
Likely
66-100%
Very likely
90-100%
Virtually certain
99-100%
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
Also use
Extremely unlikely
0-5%
More unlikely than likely
0-<50%
More likely than not
>50-100%
Extremely likely
95-100%
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Observed Changes and their Causes
• Human influence on the climate system is clear
• Warming of the climate system is ‘unequivocal’
• atmosphere and oceans warmer, amount of snow and ice diminished, sea level
risen
• Just under 1°C warming over past 100 years
• Ocean warming has dominated increase in energy in climate system
• High confidence that CO2 intake post industrial revolution has acidified
global oceans
• pH decreased by 0.1 (26% increase in acidity)
• High confidence that Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets losing mass over
past 20 years; Arctic sea ice extent -4% per decrease 1980-2010
• Global sea levels rose 20cm in past 100 years
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Observed Changes and their Causes
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Observed Changes and their Causes
• 1750 to 2011 – Total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions about
2000GtCO2
•
•
•
•
•
40% remained in atmosphere
Rest absorbed by vegetation (plants/soil 70%) or oceans (30%)
Deforestation responsible for 10% increase in CO2 (as storage potential decreased)
High confidence that half of emissions came in last 40 years
Drivers: economic and population growth
• Economic growth now outweighing population growth
• Increase use of coal (NICs) – reversing decarbonisation trend of world’s energy supply
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Observed Changes and their Causes
• Impacts of Climate Change
• Medium confidence: water resources quality and quantity impacted
• High confidence: impact on abundance and range of marine species
• High confidence: negative impacts on crop yields more common than positive
ones
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Observed Changes and their Causes
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Observed Changes and their Causes
• Impacts of Climate Change on water
• Medium confidence: water resources quality and quantity impacted
• High confidence: impact on abundance and range of marine species
• High confidence: negative impacts on crop yields more common than positive
ones
• Extreme events
• Decrease in cold temperature extremes
• Increase in warm temperature extremes
• Likely that frequency of heatwaves increasing in Europe, Asia and Australia
• Increase in high sea levels
• Increase in heavy precipitation events (regional inequalities)
• Likely more land regions where number of heavy precipitation events has increased than
those where it has decreased.
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Future Climate Changes, Risks and Impacts
• Continued emission of GHGs will cause further warming and long lasting
changes “increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible
impacts for people and ecosystems”
• Some debate about which GHGs we must be most wary of:
• CO2, CH4, H20
• Projections vary:
• Difficulty of predicting future policy, needs
• SRES scenarios of IPCC assessments replaced by “Representative Concentration
Pathways” (RCPs)
•
•
•
•
Stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6)
 Scenario likely to keep below 2°C
Two intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0)
pre-industrial temperatures
Very high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5)
Roughly 300 baseline scenarios
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Future Climate Changes, Risks and Impacts
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Future Climate Changes, Risks and Impacts
• Difficult to predict future changes due to choice of RCP
Six Degrees chapters – degrees warming by 2100
• Global mean surface temperature by 2100 (100 yr rise)
•
•
•
•
•
1
2
3
RCP2.6 0.3°C – 1.7°C
Urban 1.1°C – 2.6°C
RCP4.5
Rural 1.4°C – 3.1°C
RCP6.0
RCP8.5
Tourism 2.6°C – 4.8°C
Arctic
set for well above average temperature rise
Energy
Hot
Cold
Rivers
Coasts
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
4
5
6
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Future Climate Changes, Risks and Impacts
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Future Climate Changes, Risks and Impacts
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Future Climate Changes, Risks and Impacts
• Sea level rise by 2100 (100 yr rise)
•
•
•
•
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP6.0
RCP8.5
0.26 – 0.55m
0.32 – 0.63m
0.33 – 0.63m
0.45 – 0.82m
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Future Climate Changes, Risks and Impacts
• Worst impacts for the most vulnerable
• Notion of tipping points
• Extinction of species – plant vulnerability
• Even small mammals and molluscs can’t keep up with rates of RCP4.5
• Ocean acidification and lower oxygen levels
• Coral reefs and polar ecosystems as particularly vulnerable
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Future Climate Changes, Risks and Impacts
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Future Climate Changes, Risks and Impacts
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Future Climate Changes, Risks and Impacts
• Climate change beyond 2100
•
•
•
•
•
Difficult to predict
Many things will still continue even if anthropogenic emissions were stopped
Warming continues in all scenarios apart from RCP2.6
Sea levels to continue to rise
Greenland tipping point? 1C-4C but 7m sea level rise
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Future Pathways for Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development
Adaptation and Mitigation
• Some really interesting ethics to think about
• Priorities of adaptation v mitigation
• Equity – many of those vulnerable to climate change have contributed little to
GHG emissions
• Delaying mitigation shifts burden from present to future
• Given that MEDCs have passed through their industrial phase of development
without regard for the environment is it now their duty to assist NICs/LEDCs or by
dictating terms in global agreements is this some form of climate-colonialism?
• Scale of response
• Difficulty of getting politicians on board – immediacy of issues normally a reelection criteria
• Humankind’s (in)ability to plan on the global scale
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
IPCC AR5 Criticism
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
IPCC Controversy – UK critiques
• UK House of Commons Energy and Climate Change Committee invited
submissions into an inquiry assessing the validity of the IPCC’s AR5.
• Dr. Ruth Dixon- critiqued “ if the reports are to be seen as truly authoritative, a
far more challenging review process should be involved. In my opinion, the IPCC
reports cannot be described as peer reviewed, rather than a process of public
comment”
• David Holland stated “IPCC... Has failed to ensure that the experts… meet the
required professional and ethical standards. The IPCC is seen by many as
established to provide a justification for political commitment. For these reasons
it has never been fit for purpose.”
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
IPCC Controversy – Response of Chair of the Energy and Climate Change Committee (Tim Yeo)
• Impressed with integrity of IPCC and its responses to criticisms since AR4.
• What is starkly clear from evidence… no reason to doubt credibility of the science
or integrity of the scientists involved.
• There is no scientific basis for reducing the UK’s ambition to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions.
http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/energy-and-climate-change-committee/news/report-ipcc-5-assessment-review/
29th July 2014
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
IPCC Controversy – International Critiques
Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change
• Scientists and scholars who aim “to present a comprehensive, authoritative, and realistic
assessment of the science and economics of global warming”
• NIPCC is able to offer an independent “second opinion” of the evidence reviewed – or not
reviewed – by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the issue of global
warming”
• In September 2013, NIPCC released Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical
Science, releasing a second volume, Climate Change Reconsidered II : Impacts, Adaptation,
and Vulnerability in 2014 (www.ClimateChangeReconsidered.org)
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
IPCC AR5 Teaching Ideas
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
IPCC Poster
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Frequently Asked Questions
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Frequently Asked Questions
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Cross Chapter Boxes
• Topics of interest:
•
•
•
•
•
•
found at http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/docs/WGIIAR5-IntegrationBrochure_FINAL.pdf
Coral Reefs
Gender and Climate Change
Heat Stress and Heat Waves
Ocean Acidification
Building Long-Term Resilience from Tropical Cyclone Disasters
Urban-Rural Interactions – Context for Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and
Adaptation
• Also at the bottom of link is a huge Climate Change glossary
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Cross Chapter Boxes
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
CW uses in class
LAWRENCE SHERIFF SCHOOL
Year 8 – Climate Change
GEOGRAPHY DEPARTMENT
YEAR 8 – CLIMATE CHANGE
Pedagogies
• Reciprocal teaching
• Risk management ranking
• Debates
• Independent research and
project potential
• Collaborative Learning
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
1.
Historical patterns and trends
2.
Recent trends of CO2 and temperatures
3.
Future predictions for the world
a. Temperature changes
b. Impact on ecosystems and animals
c. Impact on humans
4.
How will/ are humans adapting?
a. Local scales
b. National scales
c. Global scales
d. Eco-cities construction
5.
GA conference 2015
Debate over Global Warming
(responsibility/ existence etc….)
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
CW uses in class
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Usesuses
CW
in class
in class
Geographical
location
specified
Future
predictions
Geographical reasoning to support weaker learners and extend G & T
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Usesuses
CW
in class
in class
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Usesuses
CW
in class
in class
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
CW uses in class
Eco-cities: Creative Work
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Usesuses
CW
in class
in class
Skills Used
• Ranking of importance
• Discussion of bias of data used
• Public Speaking skills
• Team work
• Development of reasoning skills
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Usesuses
CW
in classin class
KS4
Year 11- Economic Development
Evaluation of
what these
agreements/
reports mean…
- To what
extent are they
useful?
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Uses in class- KS5
Year 13- Climatic Hazards
“In what ways do humans create Climatic
Hazards”
- Risk and Vulnerability
- Acid Rain
- Increase in frequency and intensity of
storm events including tropical cyclones
- Sea Level Rise
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Uses in class- KS5
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
IPCC AR5 Links
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Useful Websites
•
•
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change website
•
Home: https://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm
•
AR5: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/
•
AR5 WGI SPM: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf
•
AR5 WGII SPM: http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/IPCC_WG2AR5_SPM_Approved.pdf
•
AR4: https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/contents.html
•
IPCC Factsheets
•
What is the IPCC? https://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/factsheets/FS_what_ipcc.pdf
•
Timeline of IPCC History https://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/factsheets/FS_timeline.pdf
Synthesis Report
•
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Video summary (15mins) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-Hcu3jH8G4#t=179
•
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Slideshow - http://www.slideshare.net/IPCCGeneva/fifth-assessment-report-synthesis-report?ref=http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
•
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report – Headline statements (2 page PDF) http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/docs/ar5_syr_headlines_en.pdf
WGI: The Physical Science Basis
•
IPCC AR5 WGI Summary for Policymakers: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
•
IPCC AR5 WGI Full Report: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf
•
IPCC AR5 WGI Video summary (9 mins) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yiTZm0y1YA
•
IPCC AR5 WGI Poster: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/docs/WGI_AR5_2013_Poster.pdf
•
IPCC AR5 WGI FAQs: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/docs/WG1AR5_FAQbrochure_FINAL.pdf
•
IPCC AR5 WGI Graphics: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/graphics/index.php?t=Assessment%20Reports&r=AR5%20-%20WG1
WGII: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
•
IPCC AR5 WGII Summary for Policymakers: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf
•
IPCC AR5 WGII Full Report: Part A: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-PartA_FINAL.pdf
•
IPCC AR5 WGII Full Report: Part B http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-PartB_FINAL.pdf
•
IPCC AR5 WGII Video summary (12 mins): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMIFBJYpSgM
•
IPCC AR5 WGII Cross Chapter Boxes: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/docs/WGIIAR5-IntegrationBrochure_FINAL.pdf
•
IPCC AR5 WGII FAQs: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/docs/WGIIAR5-FAQs_FINAL.pdf
•
IPCC AR5 WGII Graphics: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/graphics/index.php?t=Assessment%20Reports&r=AR5%20-%20WG2
WGIII: Mitigation of Climate Change
•
IPCC AR5 WGIII Summary for Policymakers: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers.pdf
•
IPCC AR5 WGIII Full Report: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_full.pdf
•
IPCC AR5 WGIII Video summary (12 mins): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDcGz1iVm6U
•
IPCC AR5 WGIII PowerPoint Presentation: http://mitigation2014.org/communication/presentations-events/WG3_AR5_Master.pptx
Other websites
•
Guardian IPCC section of news website: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ipcc
•
http://mitigation2014.org/report/publication/
•
NASA does some brilliant work too http://climate.nasa.gov/
•
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate
•
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/monitoring
•
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/?eocn=topnav&eoci=features
•
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/
•
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/category.php?cat_id=1465
•
http://polarportal.dk/en/groenlands-indlandsis/nbsp/isens-overflade/
•
http://www.carbonfootprint.com/calculator.aspx
Useful Wikipedia pages (helpful as starting points)
•
UNFCCC: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change#cite_note-art2-2
•
IPCC AR5: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report
•
SRES: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Report_on_Emissions_Scenarios
•
Post Kyoto Protocol negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post%E2%80%93Kyoto_Protocol_negotiations_on_greenhouse_gas_emissions
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
•
Climate Change refugees: http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/encyclopedia/climate-refugee/?ar_a=1
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft
Questions?
Thank you for listening.
Challenge: cause climate change understanding amongst your students…
Using the IPCC’s Assessment Report data and climate change science in geography
GA conference 2015
James Riley and Charlotte Woolliscroft