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CLIMATE INFORMATION: IMPORTANCE OF DATA AND
MONITORING
By:
S. N. MARIGI
KENYA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
P.O.BOX 30259
NAIROBI
PRESENTATION
• Significance of climate
• Data requirements
• Sources of data
• Goal of climate monitoring
• The climate information system
• Status of the climate information system in Africa
• Addressing challenges of the climate information
system in Africa
• The problem of poor predictability
• Conclusions
Introduction: Significance of climate
 Climate
variability has impacts on all countries and on all
strata of socio-economic activity
 So called climate ‘disasters’ usually take prime position in
the headlines but normal inter-annual climate variability
continually affects agricultural production, water resources,
energy and many other sectors.
 Climate monitoring, prediction and early warning upon which
appropriate actions are taken will undoubtedly assist in
mitigating some of the negative impacts of climate variability
while taking advantage of the positive impacts (Availability of
long-term, high quality data with good spatial coverage is
therefore a prerequisite in such an endeavour. )
Data requirements
Weather
and climate data are required in order to understand, monitor
and predict climate phenomena.
* Initialization of models
* Validation of models
* Verification of forecasts
* Construction of time series for trend and climate change
detection (long-term datasets)
* Climate database is used to provide basic and tailored climate
information in form of atlases including means, variability and
return periods,daily rainfall frequencies,etc.
*The database also forms a documentation of past climate events
for inter-disciplinary impact studies
Cont’d
Weather
and climate transcend national boundaries, and
accordingly;
* National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
(NMHSs),as well as daily national weather forecasts
and warnings,cannot be achieved without regional
and international data.
* Consequently, observations throughout, and even
beyond, a region are of considerable interest to
individual countries within the region, as are products
based on such observations.
Sources of climate data
These fall into four categories namely:
Atmospheric Observations
Oceanographic Observations
Terrestrial Observations
Spaced-Based Observations
(a) Atmospheric Observations
The
principal global networks for atmospheric observations
related to climate are the GCOS Surface Network (GSN),
the GCOS Upper Air Network (GUAN), and the Global
Atmosphere Watch (GAW).
 GSN and GUAN are part of WMO's World Weather Watch
and provide data on meteorological parameters, including
temperature, pressure, precipitation, wind velocity, and
humidity, all relevant to climate change and variability studies.
The GAW programme collects information on:
* Greenhouse gases as carbon dioxide,
methane,chlorofluorocarbons,
and nitrous oxide.
* Ozone, ultraviolet radiation, aerosols, and acid precipitation
(b) Oceanographic Observations
Both
space-based and in situ networks measure sea
surface temperature, winds, waves, salinity, sea level,
sea ice properties, surface and sub-surface currents,
and other observations.
In general, ocean observing networks are not as
developed as atmospheric networks, and large and
significant network gaps exist across vast expanses of
ocean space, especially in the Southern Hemisphere
(c) Terrestrial Observations
Terrestrial
observations for climate encompass
measurements of
the terrestrial properties and attributes that control the
physical,
biological, and chemical processes affecting climate; are
affected
by climate change or climate variability; serve as indicators
of
climate change; or relate to impacts of climate change
 For the most part, global-scale terrestrial networks have
not been
developed to the same extent as atmospheric networks
Important recent advances in terrestrial observations have
only
(d) Spaced-Based Observations
Conventional surface-based
observations
cannot provide all of the data required
for
investigating the climate
Satellite observations are a practical
source
for measurements that cannot be made
any
other way, such as measurements of
ocean
OVERALL GOAL OF CLIMATE MONITORING
To provide information that enables and
persuades people and organisations to take
action to minimise the the negative impacts of
climate variability and also take advantage of the
good years/seasons. In this respect:
Climate
forecasting services should therefore be
supported by
monitoring activities.
Monitoring is required for forecast verification, and
provides
necessary data for updating forecasts as well as the
season
(forecast period) progress.
Climate anomalies affect vulnerability and monitoring of
Some examples of prediction and early warning
products
Cumulative time series graphs
Cont’d
Rainfall trend for Khartoum
Cont’d
20
15
LATITUDE (°N/S)
10
5
0
-5
Wet
Near normal
Dry
-10
Driest on record
25
30
35
40
45
50
LONGITUDE (°E)
Drought severity index for February 2002
Consensus Climate Outlook for the Period
March to May 2002
Some examples of impacts of extreme climate
anomalies
(a) Houses submerged due to floods
(b) Crop failure due to drought
The information System
“Climate information” may be seen in this context as the ‘state-of-theart’ of exploitation of past climatological records as well as climate
monitoring activities
• Data and their handling methods constitute the information system.
This provides a conceptual basis for the development of approaches
in resource management,ensuring that the right data and
information are available in the right form at the right place and in
time
• A robust data management system is required both for providing
for the intended uses for which the data and information are
collected and for a multitude of non-anticipated uses.
• A well designed information system contains synergism of the
following:
*The information is not destroyed by its use (must be properly
preserved and available at minimal cost)
*The information can be used to improve the understanding of
the processes being monitored and develop relevant products
Five step simplification of the climate
information system
1: Data- GSN, GUAN, GAW, etc.
2: Analysis and Predictions:- Anomalies, ENSO,QBO,SST gradients, etc.
3: User oriented products:- Rainfall probabilities, drought index,etc.
4: User interface:- Outreach, media,etc.
5: User applications and benefits:- Increased yields, better decisions,
improved profits, less losses, etc.
Cont’d
stage headed “ data” refers to the basic network that is in
place to obtain, disseminate and archive observations (GCOS and
www together with other structures manage this important
activity)
The stage headed “ analyses and prediction” covers the work that is
being, and has been, done to examine and interpret the observations
and develop models as well as forecasts
In stage three, products are developed that are appropriate to the
needs of the final user
In the fourth stage, the information is communicated to the end-user
in a manner that develops thrust and understanding
In the final stage, applications are created and benefits gained
( stages 3-5 all refer to products and information delivery upon which
decisions can be made)
The
Status of the climate information system in
Africa
Information delivery to the end-users is vital if it is to have
meaningful impacts. In this respect, it has been observed
that:
In relative terms, efforts and resources (both national and
international) have been invested in data and analyses and
predictions
 It is only in the recent past that some agencies such as
NOAA/OGP
and USAID have initiated programs addressing user
applications
Despite the disparities in development within the various
stages of
the climate information system, the system still faces many
problems as highlighted next.
(a) Data problems
Declining
observational network and poor spatial
coverage
Existence of data gaps at some locations
Availability of some good data in ledger files that have
not been computerised
Obsolete computerised data base systems such as old
tapes and microfilms with no facilities to read (e.g. data
stored on Micro- Vax mini computer which uses the VMS
operating system)
Some stations experience resource-related problems
(e.g.skilled human resources and computing capacity)
Available satellite data need ground truthing
(b) Information delivery and applications
problems
There
is limited clarity on what forecast formats are best suited
to user needs but it is known that the optimal format may vary
between applications
There is limited structure in interfacing information to end -users,
and sometimes products are made available without any interfacing
considerations, thus losing credibility.
Production and delivery systems are somewhat fragmented and
consequently it is difficult to reach those end users who may have
particular need for the information
End-users often perceive a need for temporal and spatial detail in the
prediction that currently cannot be achieved.
Best method from the scientific perspective of delivering outlooks is
through probabilistic approaches. Probability forecasts, however, are
often viewed as difficult to understand and act upon.
Addressing the challenges of the climate
information system
There is a critical need to develop and /or
improve the African climate information system
to better understand the African climate
variability and change. This will also enable a
better climate monitoring in the continent and
thus a better mitigation of the effects of extreme
climate events. Efforts to this end are
highlighted next
(a) Data and Observations
A
global climate observing system (GCOS) meeting for the eastern and
southern Africa was held in Kisumu, Kenya, from 3 – 5 October 2001 to
address the issue of deficiencies of observation networks in the region.
Several recommendations were put forward on the issue. This was followed
by experts meeting on January 2002 where several proposals were
prepared and an action plan developed. This action plan is now a reference
tool with regard to the priority areas to address.
With regard to hydrological network, WMO and its partners have now
established the IGAD WHYCOS project which will address the issue
The Mt Kenya GAW (Global Atmospheric Watch) was commissioned on 5th
October 2001. The project is to monitor ozone levels in the region
A proposal that is intended to capture data that is not currently accessible
has been prepared by DMCN and is being floated to donors for possible
funding.
The region is preparing to install satellite receivers in anticipation of the
enormous data that will be availed through the Meteosat Second Generation
(MSG) of satellite which is due to be launched ( ground truthing?)
(b) Information delivery and applications
Regional climate outlooks, national user workshops and pilot
applications projects were initiated with the objective of addressing
some of the problems associated with information delivery and
applications. Without doubt, these have:
Played a significant role in capacity building in many parts of the
globe
Helped develop links between Meteorologists and end-users of
seasonal forecasts
Stimulated interest in and created recognition of the impacts of interannual climate variability
Assisted in developing activities that mitigate against the impacts of
climate variability
Helped demonstrate the economic value of applying climate
information and prediction products in decision making for socioeconomic development
Problem of poor predictability
Needless to say, perfect forecasts do not exist.
Whether or not the degree of the skill is enough depends
entirely on the use to which the forecast is being put
Usefulness of the skill is thus subjective (use and region
dependent)
When
a model is skill indeed poor, climatology prevails
CONCLUDING REMARKS
• The value of climate information in the planning and
management of resources is enormous
• Demand for climate information is on the increase year after
year especially that tailored to specific application.
• Several problems do exist regarding the production and
delivery of climate information and products for effective
utilisation.
• Some programs are already in place to address some of the
shortcomings of the climate information system. These include
initiatives by GCOS ,GAW and WHYCOS as well as the
regional climate outlook forums.